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A couple of years ago, the F/+ picks just destroyed bowl season ... laid waste to it. I got excited and determined that perhaps by the bowl season, when there's enough data in place and momentum doesn't really matter (since teams typically have 2-5 weeks between games), that's when the F/+ picks are going to shine.
And then the next year the bowl picks hit at like 42% or something awful. Whatever. Here they are regardless.
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Week 15
New: 8-7 (53%)
Old: 8-7 (53%) - TOTAL
New: 396-395-16 (50%)
Old: 358-334-14 (52%)
NEW METHOD
NOTE: I've tweaked (a.k.a. made better) the win probability numbers, and they seem a lot more accurate at the high end. Of course, that doesn't matter in bowl season, when few games actually reach that high end. Still, FYI.
| Date | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | Prediction | Favorite's chance of winning outright |
Pick |
| 12/21/13 | 2:00 PM | ESPN | Washington State vs. Colorado State | 4 | Washington State by 3.6 (24.7 - 21.1) | 64.1% | Colorado State |
| 12/21/13 | 3:30 PM | ABC | Fresno State vs. USC | -6 | USC by 13.9 (32.4 - 18.5) | 81.7% | USC |
| 12/21/13 | 5:30 PM | ESPN | Buffalo vs. San Diego State | 1 | Buffalo by 8.0 (24.4 - 16.4) | 72.0% | Buffalo |
| 12/21/13 | 9:00 PM | ESPN | Tulane vs. UL-Lafayette | 0 | Tulane by 4.8 (24.4 - 19.6) | 66.6% | Tulane |
| 12/23/13 | 2:00 PM | ESPN | East Carolina vs. Ohio | 14 | East Carolina by 24.6 (44.1 - 19.5) | 92.4% | East Carolina |
| 12/24/13 | 8:00 PM | ESPN | Boise State vs. Oregon State | -3 | Boise State by 4.2 (31.3 - 27.0) | 64.9% | Boise State |
| 12/26/13 | 6:00 PM | ESPN | Pittsburgh vs. Bowling Green | -6 | Bowling Green by 5.3 (29.0 - 23.7) | 67.3% | Pittsburgh |
| 12/26/13 | 9:30 PM | ESPN | Utah State vs. Northern Illinois | -1.5 | Utah State by 9.6 (25.6 - 16.0) | 74.7% | Utah State |
| 12/27/13 | 2:30 PM | ESPN | Marshall vs. Maryland | 3 | Marshall by 3.9 (35.1 - 31.1) | 63.5% | Marshall |
| 12/27/13 | 6:00 PM | ESPN | Syracuse vs. Minnesota | -4.5 | Minnesota by 9.1 (26.9 - 17.8) | 73.4% | Minnesota |
| 12/27/13 | 9:30 PM | ESPN | BYU vs. Washington | -3 | Washington by 4.9 (26.8 - 21.9) | 65.9% | Washington |
| 12/28/13 | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Rutgers vs. Notre Dame | -15.5 | Notre Dame by 21.8 (38.9 - 17.1) | 92.4% | Notre Dame |
| 12/28/13 | 3:20 PM | ESPN | Cincinnati vs. North Carolina | -3 | North Carolina by 6.7 (32.8 - 26.1) | 69.6% | North Carolina |
| 12/28/13 | 6:45 PM | ESPN | Miami-FL vs. Louisville | -3.5 | Louisville by 6.0 (39.1 - 33.0) | 68.7% | Louisville |
| 12/28/13 | 10:15 PM | ESPN | Michigan vs. Kansas State | -3.5 | Kansas State by 1.7 (29.0 - 27.3) | 59.7% | Michigan |
| 12/30/13 | 11:45 AM | ESPN | Middle Tennessee vs. Navy | -6 | Navy by 4.3 (36.5 - 32.2) | 65.4% | Middle Tennessee |
| 12/30/13 | 3:15 PM | ESPN | Ole Miss vs. Georgia Tech | 3 | Georgia Tech by 1.2 (30.3 - 29.2) | 58.1% | Georgia Tech |
| 12/30/13 | 6:45 PM | ESPN | Oregon vs. Texas | 14 | Oregon by 15.9 (41.1 - 25.2) | 82.9% | Oregon |
| 12/30/13 | 10:15 PM | ESPN | Arizona State vs. Texas Tech | 14 | Arizona State by 24.0 (49.6 - 25.6) | 91.4% | Arizona State |
| 12/31/13 | 12:30 PM | ESPN | Arizona vs. Boston College | 7.5 | Arizona by 9.4 (36.5 - 27.1) | 73.6% | Arizona |
| 12/31/13 | 2:00 PM | CBS | Virginia Tech vs. UCLA | -7 | UCLA by 3.2 (18.8 - 15.6) | 62.3% | Virginia Tech |
| 12/31/13 | 4:00 PM | ESPN | Rice vs. Mississippi State | -7 | Mississippi State by 3.7 (24.2 - 20.5) | 63.6% | Rice |
| 12/31/13 | 8:00 PM | ESPN | Duke vs. Texas A&M | -12 | Texas A&M by 7.1 (42.1 - 35.0) | 69.7% | Duke |
| 1/1/14 | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Nebraska vs. Georgia | -9 | Georgia by 11.7 (37.5 - 25.8) | 78.2% | Georgia |
| 1/1/14 | 12:00 PM | ESPNU | UNLV vs. North Texas | -6.5 | North Texas by 14.9 (29.4 - 14.5) | 83.0% | North Texas |
| 1/1/14 | 1:00 PM | ESPN | Iowa vs. LSU | -7.5 | LSU by 5.7 (30.6 - 24.9) | 68.2% | Iowa |
| 1/1/14 | 1:00 PM | ABC | Wisconsin vs. South Carolina | 1 | Wisconsin by 2.7 (26.1 - 23.4) | 61.9% | Wisconsin |
| 1/1/14 | 5:00 PM | ESPN | Stanford vs. Michigan State | 4.5 | Stanford by 8.7 (19.7 - 11.0) | 73.1% | Stanford |
| 1/1/14 | 8:30 PM | ESPN | Central Florida vs. Baylor | -17 | Baylor by 9.4 (40.4 - 31.0) | 73.6% | Central Florida |
| 1/2/14 | 8:30 PM | ESPN | Oklahoma vs. Alabama | -15 | Alabama by 17.9 (33.0 - 15.1) | 87.8% | Alabama |
| 1/3/14 | 7:30 PM | Fox | Oklahoma State vs. Missouri | -1 | Oklahoma State by 3.2 (25.6 - 22.4) | 62.2% | Oklahoma State |
| 1/3/14 | 8:30 PM | ESPN | Clemson vs. Ohio State | -3 | Ohio State by 5.7 (37.8 - 32.1) | 66.8% | Ohio State |
| 1/4/14 | 1:00 PM | ESPN | Vanderbilt vs. Houston | 3 | Houston by 4.0 (27.1 - 23.2) | 63.9% | Houston |
| 1/5/14 | 9:00 PM | ESPN | Arkansas State vs. Ball State | -9 | Ball State by 14.8 (42.0 - 27.2) | 81.2% | Ball State |
| 1/6/14 | 8:30 PM | ESPN | Florida State vs. Auburn | 8.5 | Florida State by 11.1 (30.4 - 19.3) | 79.4% | Florida State |
OLD METHOD
| Day | Time (ET) | Game | Spread | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick |
| 12/21/13 | 2:00 PM | Washington State vs. Colorado State | 4 | Washington State by 3.7 | Colorado State |
| 12/21/13 | 3:30 PM | Fresno State vs. USC | -6 | USC by 13.4 | USC |
| 12/21/13 | 5:30 PM | Buffalo vs. San Diego State | 1 | Buffalo by 7.6 | Buffalo |
| 12/21/13 | 9:00 PM | Tulane vs. UL-Lafayette | 0 | Tulane by 4.9 | Tulane |
| 12/23/13 | 2:00 PM | East Carolina vs. Ohio | 14 | East Carolina by 22.2 | East Carolina |
| 12/24/13 | 8:00 PM | Boise State vs. Oregon State | -3 | Boise State by 4.1 | Boise State |
| 12/26/13 | 6:00 PM | Pittsburgh vs. Bowling Green | -6 | Bowling Green by 5.2 | Pittsburgh |
| 12/26/13 | 9:30 PM | Utah State vs. Northern Illinois | -1.5 | Utah State by 9.1 | Utah State |
| 12/27/13 | 2:30 PM | Marshall vs. Maryland | 3 | Marshall by 3.4 | Marshall |
| 12/27/13 | 6:00 PM | Syracuse vs. Minnesota | -4.5 | Minnesota by 8.4 | Minnesota |
| 12/27/13 | 9:30 PM | BYU vs. Washington | -3 | Washington by 4.6 | Washington |
| 12/28/13 | 12:00 PM | Rutgers vs. Notre Dame | -15.5 | Notre Dame by 22.2 | Notre Dame |
| 12/28/13 | 3:20 PM | Cincinnati vs. North Carolina | -3 | North Carolina by 6.4 | North Carolina |
| 12/28/13 | 6:45 PM | Miami-FL vs. Louisville | -3.5 | Louisville by 6.0 | Louisville |
| 12/28/13 | 10:15 PM | Michigan vs. Kansas State | -3.5 | Kansas State by 1.7 | Michigan |
| 12/30/13 | 11:45 AM | Middle Tennessee vs. Navy | -6 | Navy by 4.3 | Middle Tennessee |
| 12/30/13 | 3:15 PM | Ole Miss vs. Georgia Tech | 3 | Georgia Tech by 1.0 | Georgia Tech |
| 12/30/13 | 6:45 PM | Oregon vs. Texas | 14 | Oregon by 14.2 | Oregon |
| 12/30/13 | 10:15 PM | Arizona State vs. Texas Tech | 14 | Arizona State by 21.2 | Arizona State |
| 12/31/13 | 12:30 PM | Arizona vs. Boston College | 7.5 | Arizona by 8.5 | Arizona |
| 12/31/13 | 2:00 PM | Virginia Tech vs. UCLA | -7 | UCLA by 2.9 | Virginia Tech |
| 12/31/13 | 4:00 PM | Rice vs. Mississippi State | -7 | Mississippi State by 3.5 | Rice |
| 12/31/13 | 8:00 PM | Duke vs. Texas A&M | -12 | Texas A&M by 6.5 | Duke |
| 1/1/14 | 12:00 PM | Nebraska vs. Georgia | -9 | Georgia by 11.1 | Georgia |
| 1/1/14 | 12:00 PM | UNLV vs. North Texas | -6.5 | North Texas by 14.3 | North Texas |
| 1/1/14 | 1:00 PM | Iowa vs. LSU | -7.5 | LSU by 5.7 | Iowa |
| 1/1/14 | 1:00 PM | Wisconsin vs. South Carolina | 1 | Wisconsin by 2.7 | Wisconsin |
| 1/1/14 | 5:00 PM | Stanford vs. Michigan State | 4.5 | Stanford by 8.3 | Stanford |
| 1/1/14 | 8:30 PM | Central Florida vs. Baylor | -17 | Baylor by 8.5 | Central Florida |
| 1/2/14 | 8:30 PM | Oklahoma vs. Alabama | -15 | Alabama by 17.9 | Alabama |
| 1/3/14 | 7:30 PM | Oklahoma State vs. Missouri | -1 | Oklahoma State by 2.8 | Oklahoma State |
| 1/3/14 | 8:30 PM | Clemson vs. Ohio State | -3 | Ohio State by 5.0 | Ohio State |
| 1/4/14 | 1:00 PM | Vanderbilt vs. Houston | 3 | Houston by 3.6 | Houston |
| 1/5/14 | 9:00 PM | Arkansas State vs. Ball State | -9 | Ball State by 13.0 | Ball State |
| 1/6/14 | 8:30 PM | Florida State vs. Auburn | 8.5 | Florida State by 11.9 | Florida State |
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