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Week 3 college football Five Factors box scores

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Auburn’s postgame win probability was 83% in the loss to LSU. Ouch. Also: North Texas was both better and luckier than Arkansas.

By Bill C.
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NCAA Football: Louisiana State at Auburn John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

This week’s Five Factors box scores are up! Check out all the results here. Week 3’s superior performances in each category are below. (By the way, I’ve fixed a couple of glitches to the Week 1 data, and I’ve added the post-game win expectancy figure here, too.)

Top 5 success rate margins (vs. FBS)

  1. FIU (+37% vs. UMass)
  2. Clemson (+36% vs. Georgia Southern)
  3. Alabama (+32% vs. Ole Miss)
  4. Texas A&M (+32% vs. ULM)
  5. Tennessee (+31% vs. UTEP)

Man ... good for FIU, but I expected more out of UMass this year.

Top 5 yards per play margins (vs. FBS)

  1. Memphis (+6.9 yards per play vs. Georgia State)
  2. Penn State (+6.3 vs. Kent State)
  3. Clemson (+5.0 vs. Georgia Southern)
  4. Tennessee (+4.8 vs. UTEP)
  5. Georgia (+4.4 vs. MTSU)

Tennessee completely and totally dominated UTEP but figured out a way to make it seem closer than it was (i.e. to not cover).

Top 5 field position margins (vs. FBS)

  1. North Texas (+23.0 yards per possession vs. Arkansas)
  2. Minnesota (+18.4 vs. Miami-OH)
  3. Syracuse (+17.4 vs. FSU)
  4. Alabama (+16.1 vs. Ole Miss)
  5. Duke (+15.9 vs. Baylor)

Alabama thoroughly dominated Ole Miss on a play-for-play basis and drastically tilted the field. That doesn’t seem fair.

Top 5 points per scoring opportunity margins (vs. FBS)

  1. Washington (+5.6 vs. Utah)
  2. Temple (+4.7 vs. Maryland)
  3. Georgia (+4.7 vs. MTSU)
  4. Florida (+4.2 vs. Colorado State)
  5. Miami (+3.4 vs. Toledo)

Man, Utah, you had a chance. And you didn’t take advantage.

Top 5 turnovers luck margins (vs. FBS)

  1. Kansas (+4.4 turnovers over expected vs. Rutgers)
  2. North Texas (+4.2 vs. Arkansas)
  3. BC (+3.8 vs. Wake Forest)
  4. New Mexico (+3.1 vs. NMSU)
  5. Akron (+2.9 vs. Northwestern)

Translation: Kansas had a turnover margin that was +4.4 ahead of where national averages suggest it should have been. As each turnover is worth approximately five points, that means Rutgers suffered about 22 points’ worth of bad turnovers luck. Rutgers is horrible, but I guess they’re not necessarily “lose by 41 points to Kansas” horrible. Merely “lose by 19 points to Kansas, then get unlucky” horrible.

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