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This started, as so many good (and bad) things do, on Twitter.
@SBN_BillC Could you look at a combined/avg game "Percentile Performance" metric to identify "best" games? i.e., Clemson/Bama - 92%/90%
— Markov Chain Gang (@ricobert1) May 1, 2017
This is in reference to the percentile performances — in essence, single-game S&P+ scores — found on each team’s statistical profile.
@SBN_BillC An advanced stats guide to offseason rewatching? Sign me up.
— Markov Chain Gang (@ricobert1) May 1, 2017
Ask, and you shall receive. Below is a list of what the stats say were the top 50 games of 2016. I added one slight tweak, though. Along with percentile performances, the stat profiles also include a postgame win expectancy figure that basically says “based on this game’s stats, you could have expected to win this game X percent of the time.” If your postgame win expectancy was 50 percent, that means it was a perfect tossup, per the key stats.
If we’re truly judging the most high-quality games of the year, then in my mind they should be games in which both teams not only played well (per percentiles) but also played almost perfectly even. So the closer each team’s win expectancy was to 50 percent, the better the game.
So here are the top 50 games based on what I’m so cleverly calling the Great Game Score — the teams’ combined percentile ratings minus a win expectancy factor. The win expectancy for Clemson-FSU, for instance, was 54-46 in FSU’s favor. 50% - 54% = minus-4%. Meanwhile, if a team’s win expectancy was 100%, that means 50% - 100% = minus-50%. Make sense? Sort of? Good enough. Let’s list.
Best Games of 2016
Date | Game | Score | Combined Percentile | Win Exp Factor | Great Game Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Date | Game | Score | Combined Percentile | Win Exp Factor | Great Game Score |
29-Oct-16 | Clemson-Florida State | 37-34 | 1.725 | -0.04 | 1.689 |
10-Jan-17 | Clemson-Alabama | 35-31 | 1.68 | -0.01 | 1.671 |
15-Oct-16 | Ohio State-Wisconsin | 30-23 | 1.686 | -0.02 | 1.671 |
3-Jan-17 | USC-Penn State | 52-49 | 1.63 | -0.04 | 1.592 |
22-Oct-16 | Penn State-Ohio State | 24-21 | 1.685 | -0.14 | 1.545 |
17-Sep-16 | Alabama-Ole Miss | 48-43 | 1.639 | -0.1 | 1.537 |
24-Sep-16 | Auburn-LSU | 18-13 | 1.658 | -0.14 | 1.516 |
29-Oct-16 | Ohio State-Northwestern | 24-20 | 1.527 | -0.04 | 1.488 |
1-Oct-16 | North Carolina-Florida State | 37-35 | 1.532 | -0.06 | 1.472 |
8-Oct-16 | Florida State-Miami-FL | 20-19 | 1.588 | -0.17 | 1.419 |
26-Nov-16 | Ohio State-Michigan | 30-27 | 1.719 | -0.33 | 1.392 |
15-Oct-16 | Stanford-Notre Dame | 17-10 | 1.415 | -0.02 | 1.391 |
1-Oct-16 | Clemson-Louisville | 42-36 | 1.633 | -0.27 | 1.365 |
23-Sep-16 | Utah-USC | 31-27 | 1.412 | -0.06 | 1.353 |
26-Nov-16 | USC-Notre Dame | 45-27 | 1.535 | -0.18 | 1.353 |
10-Sep-16 | Pittsburgh-Penn State | 42-39 | 1.505 | -0.15 | 1.351 |
29-Oct-16 | Auburn-Ole Miss | 40-29 | 1.474 | -0.12 | 1.35 |
10-Sep-16 | Boise State-Washington State | 31-28 | 1.347 | 0 | 1.344 |
15-Oct-16 | Boise State-Colorado State | 28-23 | 1.35 | -0.03 | 1.324 |
24-Sep-16 | North Carolina-Pittsburgh | 37-36 | 1.371 | -0.05 | 1.323 |
12-Nov-16 | Pittsburgh-Clemson | 43-42 | 1.601 | -0.28 | 1.321 |
12-Nov-16 | Iowa-Michigan | 14-13 | 1.491 | -0.17 | 1.318 |
19-Nov-16 | Virginia Tech-Notre Dame | 34-31 | 1.376 | -0.06 | 1.314 |
19-Nov-16 | Florida-LSU | 16-10 | 1.586 | -0.3 | 1.287 |
26-Nov-16 | Kentucky-Louisville | 41-38 | 1.296 | -0.01 | 1.284 |
3-Sep-16 | Wisconsin-LSU | 16-14 | 1.625 | -0.34 | 1.282 |
5-Sep-16 | Florida State-Ole Miss | 45-34 | 1.549 | -0.27 | 1.281 |
5-Nov-16 | Florida State-NC State | 24-20 | 1.576 | -0.3 | 1.276 |
19-Nov-16 | Michigan-Indiana | 20-10 | 1.49 | -0.23 | 1.262 |
3-Sep-16 | Houston-Oklahoma | 33-23 | 1.412 | -0.15 | 1.26 |
29-Oct-16 | Wyoming-Boise State | 30-28 | 1.273 | -0.02 | 1.251 |
17-Sep-16 | Michigan-Colorado | 45-28 | 1.584 | -0.34 | 1.246 |
28-Dec-16 | Kansas State-Texas A&M | 33-28 | 1.272 | -0.04 | 1.232 |
15-Oct-16 | Clemson-NC State | 24-17 | 1.605 | -0.38 | 1.226 |
3-Sep-16 | Clemson-Auburn | 19-13 | 1.619 | -0.4 | 1.219 |
12-Nov-16 | Penn State-Indiana | 45-31 | 1.412 | -0.2 | 1.212 |
12-Nov-16 | Georgia Tech-Virginia Tech | 30-20 | 1.256 | -0.05 | 1.209 |
12-Nov-16 | Georgia-Auburn | 13-7 | 1.296 | -0.09 | 1.205 |
29-Oct-16 | Wisconsin-Nebraska | 23-17 | 1.412 | -0.21 | 1.203 |
1-Sep-16 | Tennessee-Appalachian State | 20-13 | 1.269 | -0.07 | 1.199 |
3-Dec-16 | Penn State-Wisconsin | 38-31 | 1.558 | -0.37 | 1.189 |
27-Oct-16 | Virginia Tech-Pittsburgh | 39-36 | 1.361 | -0.17 | 1.188 |
30-Dec-16 | Stanford-North Carolina | 25-23 | 1.365 | -0.18 | 1.185 |
29-Oct-16 | Texas-Baylor | 35-34 | 1.18 | -0.02 | 1.162 |
3-Jan-17 | Wisconsin-Western Michigan | 24-16 | 1.356 | -0.2 | 1.156 |
8-Oct-16 | USC-Colorado | 21-17 | 1.503 | -0.35 | 1.156 |
10-Sep-16 | Clemson-Troy | 30-24 | 1.408 | -0.26 | 1.147 |
3-Dec-16 | West Virginia-Baylor | 24-21 | 1.213 | -0.07 | 1.146 |
1-Oct-16 | Oklahoma State-Texas | 49-31 | 1.3 | -0.16 | 1.138 |
12-Nov-16 | West Virginia-Texas | 24-20 | 1.316 | -0.19 | 1.131 |
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Your top 10 games involving Group of 5 teams, by the way:
- Boise State 31, Washington State 28 (Sept. 10)
- Boise State 28, Colorado State 23 (Oct. 15)
- Houston 33, Oklahoma 23 (Sept. 3)
- Wyoming 30, Boise State 28 (Oct. 29)
- Tennessee 20, Appalachian State 13 (Sept. 1)
And in case you’re curious, here are the 20 worst games of 2016.
Worst games of 2016
Date | Game | Score | Combined Percentile | Win Prob Factor | Great Game Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Date | Game | Score | Combined Percentile | Win Prob Factor | Great Game Score |
01-Oct-16 | Texas State-Incarnate Word | 48-17 | 0.322 | -0.49 | -0.170 |
03-Sep-16 | UTSA-Alabama State | 26-13 | 0.323 | -0.46 | -0.139 |
03-Sep-16 | UL-Monroe-Southern | 38-21 | 0.354 | -0.49 | -0.136 |
03-Sep-16 | Old Dominion-Hampton | 54-21 | 0.421 | -0.50 | -0.077 |
29-Oct-16 | Massachusetts-Wagner | 34-10 | 0.429 | -0.50 | -0.068 |
03-Sep-16 | Air Force-Abilene Christian | 37-21 | 0.402 | -0.47 | -0.064 |
08-Oct-16 | Georgia State-Texas State | 41-21 | 0.463 | -0.49 | -0.022 |
10-Sep-16 | Arizona-Grambling | 31-21 | 0.369 | -0.38 | -0.013 |
03-Sep-16 | Akron-VMI | 47-24 | 0.495 | -0.50 | -0.005 |
03-Dec-16 | Arkansas State-Texas State | 36-14 | 0.495 | -0.50 | -0.003 |
17-Sep-16 | Nevada-Buffalo | 38-14 | 0.502 | -0.49 | 0.010 |
10-Sep-16 | Charlotte-Elon | 47-14 | 0.523 | -0.49 | 0.028 |
24-Sep-16 | South Alabama-Nicholls State | 41-40 | 0.504 | -0.47 | 0.032 |
12-Nov-16 | Idaho-Texas State | 47-14 | 0.537 | -0.50 | 0.039 |
19-Nov-16 | South Alabama-Presbyterian | 31-7 | 0.542 | -0.50 | 0.042 |
24-Sep-16 | Ohio-Gardner-Webb | 37-21 | 0.476 | -0.42 | 0.057 |
03-Nov-16 | Ohio-Buffalo | 34-10 | 0.537 | -0.48 | 0.058 |
22-Oct-16 | UL-Lafayette-Texas State | 27-3 | 0.568 | -0.50 | 0.068 |
08-Oct-16 | Kent State-Buffalo | 44-20 | 0.557 | -0.48 | 0.077 |
02-Sep-16 | Eastern Michigan-MVSU | 61-14 | 0.593 | -0.50 | 0.094 |
The main surprise for me: no Georgia-Nicholls State! Too close, I guess.
Your 10 worst games involving power conference teams:
- Arizona 31, Grambling 21 (Sept. 10)
- Rutgers 52, Howard 14 (Sept. 10)
- Boston College 42, Wagner 10 (Sept. 24)
- Oregon 53, Cal-Davis 28 (Sept. 3)
- Kentucky 49, Austin Peay 13 (Nov. 19)
- Kansas 55, Rhode Island 6 (Sept. 3)
- Maryland 52, Howard 13 (Sept. 3)
- Georgia 26, Nicholls State 24 (Sept. 10) — there it is
- Purdue 24, Nevada 14 (Sept. 24)
- Michigan State 28, Furman 13 (Sept. 2)
Hmm. Okay, what about the 10 worst games involving only power conference teams?
- Maryland 31, Rutgers 13 (Nov. 26)
- Illinois 24, Rutgers 7 (Oct. 15)
- Texas Tech 55, Kansas 19 (Sept. 29)
- Arizona 56, Arizona State 35 (Nov. 25)
- Maryland 50, Purdue 7 (Oct. 1)
- Oregon 44, Virginia 26 (Sept. 10)
- Baylor 49, Kansas 7 (Oct. 15)
- Minnesota 40, Illinois 17 (Oct. 29)
- Michigan State 49, Rutgers 0 (Nov. 12)
- Northwestern 45, Purdue 17 (Nov. 12)
That’s a lot of Big Ten right there.
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