Big Ten championship: The Wisconsin-Penn State advanced stats tale of the tape

Wisconsin Badgers (10-2) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2)

December 03, 2016 ( 8:00 PM ET, Fox )

Spread: Wisconsin -2.5

S&P+ Projection: Wisconsin (24.5-24.2)

_{Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.}

The Basics

Category	Wisconsin		Penn State
S&P+ (Rk)	10		11
Category	Wisconsin offense	Penn State defense	Penn State offense	Wisconsin defense
Yards per play (Rk)	5.18 (92)	4.56 (10)	6.20 (27)	4.55 (9)
Yards per game (Rk)	383.6 (88)	340.5 (20)	440.7 (50)	291.3 (6)
Points per possession (Rk)	2.30 (61)	1.69 (29)	2.71 (30)	1.09 (4)
Category	Wisconsin offense	Penn State defense	Penn State offense	Wisconsin defense
S&P+ (Rk)	31.0 (54)	18.3 (11)	35.7 (30)	12.6 (3)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk)	105.7 (53)	118.8 (18)	101.3 (73)	120.9 (17)
Passing S&P+ (Rk)	128.0 (12)	112.4 (28)	137.5 (3)	127.1 (9)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk)	112.1 (33)	116.3 (19)	113.1 (30)	123.1 (7)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk)	119.0 (23)	110.1 (37)	129.5 (12)	125.6 (14)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk)	126.4 (20)	107.6 (40)	106.1 (57)	129.7 (12)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)	122.7 (12)	111.7 (34)	110.8 (44)	118.7 (21)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)	104.6 (54)	117.8 (19)	136.7 (4)	131.3 (8)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)	105.0 (52)	139.7 (2)	138.4 (2)	120.7 (11)

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

Wisconsin

1. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 12 defense vs. No. 114 offense)
2. Run Stuffs (No. 34 defense vs. No. 119 offense)
3. Adj. Line Yards (No. 35 defense vs. No. 113 offense)
4. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 9 defense vs. No. 81 offense)
5. Third Down S&P+ (No. 3 defense vs. No. 65 offense)

Penn State

1. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 19 defense vs. No. 101 offense)
2. Run Stuffs (No. 20 defense vs. No. 65 offense)
3. Adj. Line Yards (No. 15 defense vs. No. 51 offense)
4. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 29 defense vs. No. 65 offense)
5. Rushing S&P+ (No. 18 defense vs. No. 53 offense)

Five Factors

Category	Wisconsin offense	Penn State defense	Penn State offense	Wisconsin defense
EXPLOSIVENESS	1.17 (109)	1.25 (63)	1.43 (10)	1.12 (10)
EFFICIENCY	42.7% (65)	36.7% (23)	40.9% (83)	35.7% (15)
FIELD POSITION	32.7 (18)	28.3 (46)	34.2 (6)	27.4 (28)
FINISHING DRIVES	4.3 (86)	4.0 (31)	4.9 (29)	3.1 (3)
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED: Wisconsin 9.09 (5) Penn State 2.49 (46)		ACTUAL Wisconsin 9 (12) Penn State 5 (29)

Offensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Wisconsin offense	Penn State offense
Adj. Pace	1.6 (50)	-3.7 (96)
Plays per game	74.1 (62)	71.1 (86)
Possessions per game	12.4 (94)	13.5 (35)
Std. Downs Run Rate	72.5% (10)	64.4% (38)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	35.7% (46)	34.1% (60)
% of solo tackles	71.3% (94)	74.0% (62)

Defensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Wisconsin defense	Penn State defense
Std. Downs Run Rate	58.5% (78)	61.2% (53)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	24.5% (125)	31.5% (90)
Overall Havoc Rate	20.4% (8)	19.0% (18)
Front 7 Havoc Rate	10.9% (30)	12.9% (8)
DB Havoc Rate	9.2% (4)	6.0% (77)
PD to INC	39.8% (10)	33.1% (65)

When Wisconsin has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Wisconsin Offense		Penn State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	112.1	33	116.3	19	Penn State
Standard Downs Success Rate	46.7	78	41.1	17	Penn State big
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.05	98	0.90	55	Penn State
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.00	67	2.54	20	Penn State
SD Sack Rate	3.5%	33	5.9%	43

Passing Downs

	Wisconsin Offense		Penn State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	119.0	23	110.1	37	Wisconsin
Passing Downs Success Rate	33.0	43	28.5	36
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.58	114	1.89	55	Penn State big
PD Line Yards per Carry	1.72	126	2.88	34	Penn State big
PD Sack Rate	9.9%	101	10.1%	19	Penn State big

When Penn State has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Penn State Offense		Wisconsin Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	113.1	30	123.1	7	Wisconsin
Standard Downs Success Rate	45.6	90	42.4	25	Wisconsin big
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.17	43	1.08	1	Wisconsin
SD Line Yards per Carry	2.46	120	2.72	34	Wisconsin big
SD Sack Rate	4.8%	66	3.5%	99	Penn State

Passing Downs

	Penn State Offense		Wisconsin Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	129.5	12	125.6	14
Passing Downs Success Rate	30.9	65	23.2	9	Wisconsin big
Passing Downs IsoPPP	2.26	1	1.71	105	Penn State big
PD Line Yards per Carry	1.61	127	2.86	33	Wisconsin big
PD Sack Rate	7%	54	9.6%	22	Wisconsin

Individual Passing Stats

Team	Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Wisconsin	Alex Hornibrook	6'4, 219	FR	104	179	1243	8	7	58.1%	13	6.8%	6.0
Wisconsin	Bart Houston	6'4, 235	SR	69	108	912	5	3	63.9%	7	6.1%	7.6
Wisconsin
Penn State	Trace McSorley	6'0, 205	SO	184	327	2976	21	5	56.3%	21	6.0%	8.1
Penn State	Tommy Stevens	6'4, 218	FR	2	3	36	0	0	66.7%	1	25.0%	8.8
Penn State

Individual Rushing Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate
Wisconsin	Corey Clement	RB	5'11, 227	SR	272	1140	13	4.2	4.5	29.4%
Wisconsin	Dare Ogunbowale	RB	5'11, 205	SR	80	458	3	5.7	5.6	40.0%
Wisconsin	Bradrick Shaw	RB	6'1, 211	FR	73	395	5	5.4	5.2	43.8%
Wisconsin	Taiwan Deal	RB	6'1, 224	SO	30	155	0	5.2	2.1	53.3%
Penn State	Saquon Barkley	RB	5'11, 223	SO	228	1219	15	5.3	7.8	35.5%
Penn State	Trace McSorley	QB	6'0, 205	SO	113	522	6	4.6	3.5	42.5%
Penn State	Mark Allen	RB	5'6, 181	SO	28	115	1	4.1	2.8	39.3%
Penn State	Miles Sanders	RB	5'11, 205	FR	25	184	1	7.4	10.2	48.0%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Individual Receiving Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate
Wisconsin	Jazz Peavy	WR	6'0, 184	JR	79	39	582	5	14.9	7.4	49.4%
Wisconsin	Troy Fumagalli	TE	6'6, 248	JR	55	38	467	1	12.3	8.5	69.1%
Wisconsin	Robert Wheelwright	WR	6'3, 211	SR	51	33	436	1	13.2	8.6	64.7%
Wisconsin	Dare Ogunbowale	RB	5'11, 205	SR	24	18	152	1	8.4	6.3	75.0%
Wisconsin	George Rushing	WR	6'1, 192	JR	14	10	109	0	10.9	7.8	71.4%
Wisconsin	Alec Ingold	FB	6'2, 238	SO	10	6	55	2	9.2	5.5	60.0%
Wisconsin	Corey Clement	RB	5'11, 227	SR	9	7	61	0	8.7	6.8	77.8%
Penn State	Chris Godwin	WR	6'1, 205	JR	84	47	762	9	16.2	9.1	56.0%
Penn State	Mike Gesicki	TE	6'6, 252	JR	62	44	610	3	13.9	9.8	71.0%
Penn State	DaeSean Hamilton	WR	6'1, 205	JR	54	26	388	1	14.9	7.2	48.1%
Penn State	DeAndre Thompkins	WR	5'11, 190	SO	40	25	431	1	17.2	10.8	62.5%
Penn State	Saquon Barkley	RB	5'11, 223	SO	30	21	327	2	15.6	10.9	70.0%
Penn State	Saeed Blacknall	WR	6'3, 212	JR	20	9	192	1	21.3	9.6	45.0%
Penn State	Juwan Johnson	WR	6'4, 218	FR	6	2	70	0	35.0	11.7	33.3%

Individual Defensive Stats

Team	Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Wisconsin	T.J. Edwards	ILB	6'1, 244	SO	59.0	10.6%	8.5	3.0	2	2	0	0
Wisconsin	Jack Cichy	ILB	6'2, 233	JR	52.5	9.5%	7.0	1.5	0	2	2	0
Wisconsin	Leo Musso	S	5'10, 194	SR	49.5	8.9%	2.0	0.0	5	1	0	1
Wisconsin	T.J. Watt	OLB	6'5, 243	JR	43.5	7.9%	13.0	9.5	1	3	0	0
Wisconsin	D'Cota Dixon	S	5'10, 197	JR	38.0	6.9%	2.5	1.0	4	4	1	1
Wisconsin	Ryan Connelly	ILB	6'3, 235	SO	36.0	6.5%	4.5	0.0	1	3	0	0
Wisconsin	Garret Dooley	OLB	6'3, 247	JR	30.0	5.4%	6.5	3.5	0	0	0	0
Wisconsin	Leon Jacobs	FB	6'2, 238	JR	27.0	4.9%	1.0	1.0	1	0	0	0
Wisconsin	Vince Biegel	OLB	6'4, 245	SR	25.0	4.5%	5.0	3.0	0	0	0	0
Wisconsin	Derrick Tindal	CB	5'11, 175	JR	25.0	4.5%	0.5	0.0	3	11	1	0
Wisconsin	Lubern Figaro	S	6'0, 182	JR	23.0	4.2%	1.0	0.0	0	7	2	0
Wisconsin	Sojourn Shelton	CB	5'9, 168	SR	22.5	4.1%	1.0	0.0	4	12	0	1
Wisconsin	Conor Sheehy	DE	6'4, 288	JR	19.5	3.5%	4.0	2.5	0	0	1	0
Penn State	Marcus Allen	S	6'2, 202	JR	68.0	9.9%	6.0	0.0	0	3	1	1
Penn State	Brandon Bell	LB	6'1, 233	SR	52.0	7.6%	6.5	3.0	1	2	2	0
Penn State	Malik Golden	S	6'0, 205	SR	49.5	7.2%	4.5	0.0	1	3	1	0
Penn State	Manny Bowen	LB	6'1, 220	SO	47.0	6.8%	8.0	2.0	0	2	0	0
Penn State	Jason Cabinda	LB	6'1, 232	JR	44.0	6.4%	4.0	1.0	0	3	0	0
Penn State	Brandon Smith	LB	6'0, 228	JR	37.5	5.5%	4.0	0.5	2	3	0	0
Penn State	Garrett Sickels	DE	6'4, 260	JR	31.5	4.6%	12.5	6.0	0	0	0	0
Penn State	John Reid	CB	5'10, 191	SO	27.5	4.0%	4.0	0.5	1	6	0	1
Penn State	Cam Brown	LB	6'5, 215	FR	21.0	3.1%	1.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Penn State	Torrence Brown	DE	6'3, 257	SO	20.5	3.0%	6.0	0.5	0	0	2	1
Penn State	Grant Haley	CB	5'9, 185	JR	20.5	3.0%	1.5	0.0	0	2	0	0
Penn State	Troy Apke	S	6'1, 206	JR	19.5	2.8%	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
Penn State	Evan Schwan	DE	6'6, 263	SR	18.5	2.7%	7.5	6.0	0	2	1	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Individual Special Teams Stats

Team	Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Wisconsin	Anthony Lotti	6'0, 186	FR	44	37.7	1	10	16	59.1%
Wisconsin	P.J. Rosowski	6'3, 211	SO	15	36.7	0	5	3	53.3%
Penn State	Blake Gillikin	6'2, 182	FR	54	41.8	5	17	19	66.7%
Penn State	Daniel Pasquariello	6'1, 197	JR	2	37.5	0	1	1	100.0%

Team	Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%	OOB	Fair Catches	Onside Att	Onside Success
Wisconsin	P.J. Rosowski	6'3, 211	SO	68	63.5	45	66.2%	0	1	0	0
Wisconsin	Andrew Endicott	5'9, 173	SR	2	47.0	0	0.0%	0	0	0	0
Penn State	Joey Julius	5'10, 258	SO	86	61.9	41	47.7%	0	4	0	0

Team	Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	FG	Pct
Wisconsin	Andrew Endicott	5'9, 173	SR	28-30	11-16	68.8%
Wisconsin	Rafael Gaglianone	5'11, 219	JR	10-10	7-8	87.5%
Penn State	Tyler Davis	5'11, 180	JR	50-50	21-23	91.3%

Team	Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Wisconsin	Dare Ogunbowale	5'11, 205	SR	10	21.3	0	0	0 (0)
Wisconsin	Natrell Jamerson	6'0, 188	JR	9	21.2	0	0	1 (0)
Penn State	Miles Sanders	5'11, 205	FR	26	21.2	0	0	2 (1)
Penn State	Nick Scott	5'11, 200	SO	6	23.0	0	0	0 (0)

Team	Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Wisconsin	Jazz Peavy	6'0, 184	JR	16	6.2	0	10	1 (1)
Wisconsin	Corey Clement	5'11, 227	SR	2	14.0	0	6	0 (0)
Penn State	John Reid	5'10, 191	SO	21	7.7	0	8	1 (1)
Penn State	Gregg Garrity	5'10, 170	SR	3	4.7	0	9	0 (0)

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}