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Big Ten championship: The Wisconsin-Penn State advanced stats tale of the tape

Wisconsin Badgers (10-2) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2)

December 03, 2016 ( 8:00 PM ET, Fox )
Spread: Wisconsin -2.5
S&P+ Projection: Wisconsin (24.5-24.2)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Wisconsin Penn State
S&P+ (Rk) 10 11
Category Wisconsin offense Penn State defense Penn State offense Wisconsin defense
Yards per play (Rk) 5.18 (92) 4.56 (10) 6.20 (27) 4.55 (9)
Yards per game (Rk) 383.6 (88) 340.5 (20) 440.7 (50) 291.3 (6)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.30 (61) 1.69 (29) 2.71 (30) 1.09 (4)
Category Wisconsin offense Penn State defense Penn State offense Wisconsin defense
S&P+ (Rk) 31.0 (54) 18.3 (11) 35.7 (30) 12.6 (3)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 105.7 (53) 118.8 (18) 101.3 (73) 120.9 (17)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 128.0 (12) 112.4 (28) 137.5 (3) 127.1 (9)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 112.1 (33) 116.3 (19) 113.1 (30) 123.1 (7)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 119.0 (23) 110.1 (37) 129.5 (12) 125.6 (14)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 126.4 (20) 107.6 (40) 106.1 (57) 129.7 (12)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 122.7 (12) 111.7 (34) 110.8 (44) 118.7 (21)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 104.6 (54) 117.8 (19) 136.7 (4) 131.3 (8)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 105.0 (52) 139.7 (2) 138.4 (2) 120.7 (11)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Wisconsin

  1. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 12 defense vs. No. 114 offense)
  2. Run Stuffs (No. 34 defense vs. No. 119 offense)
  3. Adj. Line Yards (No. 35 defense vs. No. 113 offense)
  4. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 9 defense vs. No. 81 offense)
  5. Third Down S&P+ (No. 3 defense vs. No. 65 offense)

Penn State

  1. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 19 defense vs. No. 101 offense)
  2. Run Stuffs (No. 20 defense vs. No. 65 offense)
  3. Adj. Line Yards (No. 15 defense vs. No. 51 offense)
  4. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 29 defense vs. No. 65 offense)
  5. Rushing S&P+ (No. 18 defense vs. No. 53 offense)
Five Factors
Category Wisconsin offense Penn State defense Penn State offense Wisconsin defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.17 (109) 1.25 (63) 1.43 (10) 1.12 (10)
EFFICIENCY 42.7% (65) 36.7% (23) 40.9% (83) 35.7% (15)
FIELD POSITION 32.7 (18) 28.3 (46) 34.2 (6) 27.4 (28)
FINISHING DRIVES 4.3 (86) 4.0 (31) 4.9 (29) 3.1 (3)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Wisconsin 9.09 (5)
Penn State 2.49 (46)
ACTUAL
Wisconsin 9 (12)
Penn State 5 (29)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Wisconsin offense Penn State offense
Adj. Pace 1.6 (50) -3.7 (96)
Plays per game 74.1 (62) 71.1 (86)
Possessions per game 12.4 (94) 13.5 (35)
Std. Downs Run Rate 72.5% (10) 64.4% (38)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 35.7% (46) 34.1% (60)
% of solo tackles 71.3% (94) 74.0% (62)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Wisconsin defense Penn State defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 58.5% (78) 61.2% (53)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 24.5% (125) 31.5% (90)
Overall Havoc Rate 20.4% (8) 19.0% (18)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 10.9% (30) 12.9% (8)
DB Havoc Rate 9.2% (4) 6.0% (77)
PD to INC 39.8% (10) 33.1% (65)

When Wisconsin has the ball…

Standard Downs
Wisconsin Offense Penn State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 112.1 33 116.3 19 Penn State
Standard Downs Success Rate 46.7 78 41.1 17 Penn State big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.05 98 0.90 55 Penn State
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.00 67 2.54 20 Penn State
SD Sack Rate 3.5% 33 5.9% 43
Passing Downs
Wisconsin Offense Penn State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 119.0 23 110.1 37 Wisconsin
Passing Downs Success Rate 33.0 43 28.5 36
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.58 114 1.89 55 Penn State big
PD Line Yards per Carry 1.72 126 2.88 34 Penn State big
PD Sack Rate 9.9% 101 10.1% 19 Penn State big

When Penn State has the ball…

Standard Downs
Penn State Offense Wisconsin Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 113.1 30 123.1 7 Wisconsin
Standard Downs Success Rate 45.6 90 42.4 25 Wisconsin big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.17 43 1.08 1 Wisconsin
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.46 120 2.72 34 Wisconsin big
SD Sack Rate 4.8% 66 3.5% 99 Penn State
Passing Downs
Penn State Offense Wisconsin Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 129.5 12 125.6 14
Passing Downs Success Rate 30.9 65 23.2 9 Wisconsin big
Passing Downs IsoPPP 2.26 1 1.71 105 Penn State big
PD Line Yards per Carry 1.61 127 2.86 33 Wisconsin big
PD Sack Rate 7% 54 9.6% 22 Wisconsin
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Wisconsin Alex Hornibrook 6'4, 219 FR 104 179 1243 8 7 58.1% 13 6.8% 6.0
Wisconsin Bart Houston 6'4, 235 SR 69 108 912 5 3 63.9% 7 6.1% 7.6
Wisconsin
Penn State Trace McSorley 6'0, 205 SO 184 327 2976 21 5 56.3% 21 6.0% 8.1
Penn State Tommy Stevens 6'4, 218 FR 2 3 36 0 0 66.7% 1 25.0% 8.8
Penn State
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Wisconsin Corey Clement RB 5'11, 227 SR 272 1140 13 4.2 4.5 29.4%
Wisconsin Dare Ogunbowale RB 5'11, 205 SR 80 458 3 5.7 5.6 40.0%
Wisconsin Bradrick Shaw RB 6'1, 211 FR 73 395 5 5.4 5.2 43.8%
Wisconsin Taiwan Deal RB 6'1, 224 SO 30 155 0 5.2 2.1 53.3%
Penn State Saquon Barkley RB 5'11, 223 SO 228 1219 15 5.3 7.8 35.5%
Penn State Trace McSorley QB 6'0, 205 SO 113 522 6 4.6 3.5 42.5%
Penn State Mark Allen RB 5'6, 181 SO 28 115 1 4.1 2.8 39.3%
Penn State Miles Sanders RB 5'11, 205 FR 25 184 1 7.4 10.2 48.0%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Wisconsin Jazz Peavy WR 6'0, 184 JR 79 39 582 5 14.9 7.4 49.4%
Wisconsin Troy Fumagalli TE 6'6, 248 JR 55 38 467 1 12.3 8.5 69.1%
Wisconsin Robert Wheelwright WR 6'3, 211 SR 51 33 436 1 13.2 8.6 64.7%
Wisconsin Dare Ogunbowale RB 5'11, 205 SR 24 18 152 1 8.4 6.3 75.0%
Wisconsin George Rushing WR 6'1, 192 JR 14 10 109 0 10.9 7.8 71.4%
Wisconsin Alec Ingold FB 6'2, 238 SO 10 6 55 2 9.2 5.5 60.0%
Wisconsin Corey Clement RB 5'11, 227 SR 9 7 61 0 8.7 6.8 77.8%
Penn State Chris Godwin WR 6'1, 205 JR 84 47 762 9 16.2 9.1 56.0%
Penn State Mike Gesicki TE 6'6, 252 JR 62 44 610 3 13.9 9.8 71.0%
Penn State DaeSean Hamilton WR 6'1, 205 JR 54 26 388 1 14.9 7.2 48.1%
Penn State DeAndre Thompkins WR 5'11, 190 SO 40 25 431 1 17.2 10.8 62.5%
Penn State Saquon Barkley RB 5'11, 223 SO 30 21 327 2 15.6 10.9 70.0%
Penn State Saeed Blacknall WR 6'3, 212 JR 20 9 192 1 21.3 9.6 45.0%
Penn State Juwan Johnson WR 6'4, 218 FR 6 2 70 0 35.0 11.7 33.3%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Wisconsin T.J. Edwards ILB 6'1, 244 SO 59.0 10.6% 8.5 3.0 2 2 0 0
Wisconsin Jack Cichy ILB 6'2, 233 JR 52.5 9.5% 7.0 1.5 0 2 2 0
Wisconsin Leo Musso S 5'10, 194 SR 49.5 8.9% 2.0 0.0 5 1 0 1
Wisconsin T.J. Watt OLB 6'5, 243 JR 43.5 7.9% 13.0 9.5 1 3 0 0
Wisconsin D'Cota Dixon S 5'10, 197 JR 38.0 6.9% 2.5 1.0 4 4 1 1
Wisconsin Ryan Connelly ILB 6'3, 235 SO 36.0 6.5% 4.5 0.0 1 3 0 0
Wisconsin Garret Dooley OLB 6'3, 247 JR 30.0 5.4% 6.5 3.5 0 0 0 0
Wisconsin Leon Jacobs FB 6'2, 238 JR 27.0 4.9% 1.0 1.0 1 0 0 0
Wisconsin Vince Biegel OLB 6'4, 245 SR 25.0 4.5% 5.0 3.0 0 0 0 0
Wisconsin Derrick Tindal CB 5'11, 175 JR 25.0 4.5% 0.5 0.0 3 11 1 0
Wisconsin Lubern Figaro S 6'0, 182 JR 23.0 4.2% 1.0 0.0 0 7 2 0
Wisconsin Sojourn Shelton CB 5'9, 168 SR 22.5 4.1% 1.0 0.0 4 12 0 1
Wisconsin Conor Sheehy DE 6'4, 288 JR 19.5 3.5% 4.0 2.5 0 0 1 0
Penn State Marcus Allen S 6'2, 202 JR 68.0 9.9% 6.0 0.0 0 3 1 1
Penn State Brandon Bell LB 6'1, 233 SR 52.0 7.6% 6.5 3.0 1 2 2 0
Penn State Malik Golden S 6'0, 205 SR 49.5 7.2% 4.5 0.0 1 3 1 0
Penn State Manny Bowen LB 6'1, 220 SO 47.0 6.8% 8.0 2.0 0 2 0 0
Penn State Jason Cabinda LB 6'1, 232 JR 44.0 6.4% 4.0 1.0 0 3 0 0
Penn State Brandon Smith LB 6'0, 228 JR 37.5 5.5% 4.0 0.5 2 3 0 0
Penn State Garrett Sickels DE 6'4, 260 JR 31.5 4.6% 12.5 6.0 0 0 0 0
Penn State John Reid CB 5'10, 191 SO 27.5 4.0% 4.0 0.5 1 6 0 1
Penn State Cam Brown LB 6'5, 215 FR 21.0 3.1% 1.5 0.5 0 0 0 0
Penn State Torrence Brown DE 6'3, 257 SO 20.5 3.0% 6.0 0.5 0 0 2 1
Penn State Grant Haley CB 5'9, 185 JR 20.5 3.0% 1.5 0.0 0 2 0 0
Penn State Troy Apke S 6'1, 206 JR 19.5 2.8% 0.0 0.0 1 0 0 0
Penn State Evan Schwan DE 6'6, 263 SR 18.5 2.7% 7.5 6.0 0 2 1 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Wisconsin Anthony Lotti 6'0, 186 FR 44 37.7 1 10 16 59.1%
Wisconsin P.J. Rosowski 6'3, 211 SO 15 36.7 0 5 3 53.3%
Penn State Blake Gillikin 6'2, 182 FR 54 41.8 5 17 19 66.7%
Penn State Daniel Pasquariello 6'1, 197 JR 2 37.5 0 1 1 100.0%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Wisconsin P.J. Rosowski 6'3, 211 SO 68 63.5 45 66.2% 0 1 0 0
Wisconsin Andrew Endicott 5'9, 173 SR 2 47.0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0
Penn State Joey Julius 5'10, 258 SO 86 61.9 41 47.7% 0 4 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Wisconsin Andrew Endicott 5'9, 173 SR 28-30 11-16 68.8%
Wisconsin Rafael Gaglianone 5'11, 219 JR 10-10 7-8 87.5%
Penn State Tyler Davis 5'11, 180 JR 50-50 21-23 91.3%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Wisconsin Dare Ogunbowale 5'11, 205 SR 10 21.3 0 0 0 (0)
Wisconsin Natrell Jamerson 6'0, 188 JR 9 21.2 0 0 1 (0)
Penn State Miles Sanders 5'11, 205 FR 26 21.2 0 0 2 (1)
Penn State Nick Scott 5'11, 200 SO 6 23.0 0 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Wisconsin Jazz Peavy 6'0, 184 JR 16 6.2 0 10 1 (1)
Wisconsin Corey Clement 5'11, 227 SR 2 14.0 0 6 0 (0)
Penn State John Reid 5'10, 191 SO 21 7.7 0 8 1 (1)
Penn State Gregg Garrity 5'10, 170 SR 3 4.7 0 9 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics