:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/52100923/BigTenTitleGame.0.png)
Wisconsin Badgers (10-2) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2)
December 03, 2016 ( 8:00 PM ET, Fox )
Spread: Wisconsin -2.5
S&P+ Projection: Wisconsin (24.5-24.2)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Wisconsin | Penn State | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 10 | 11 | ||
| Category | Wisconsin offense | Penn State defense | Penn State offense | Wisconsin defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.18 (92) | 4.56 (10) | 6.20 (27) | 4.55 (9) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 383.6 (88) | 340.5 (20) | 440.7 (50) | 291.3 (6) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.30 (61) | 1.69 (29) | 2.71 (30) | 1.09 (4) |
| Category | Wisconsin offense | Penn State defense | Penn State offense | Wisconsin defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 31.0 (54) | 18.3 (11) | 35.7 (30) | 12.6 (3) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 105.7 (53) | 118.8 (18) | 101.3 (73) | 120.9 (17) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 128.0 (12) | 112.4 (28) | 137.5 (3) | 127.1 (9) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 112.1 (33) | 116.3 (19) | 113.1 (30) | 123.1 (7) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 119.0 (23) | 110.1 (37) | 129.5 (12) | 125.6 (14) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 126.4 (20) | 107.6 (40) | 106.1 (57) | 129.7 (12) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 122.7 (12) | 111.7 (34) | 110.8 (44) | 118.7 (21) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 104.6 (54) | 117.8 (19) | 136.7 (4) | 131.3 (8) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 105.0 (52) | 139.7 (2) | 138.4 (2) | 120.7 (11) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Wisconsin
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 12 defense vs. No. 114 offense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 34 defense vs. No. 119 offense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 35 defense vs. No. 113 offense)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 9 defense vs. No. 81 offense)
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 3 defense vs. No. 65 offense)
Penn State
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 19 defense vs. No. 101 offense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 20 defense vs. No. 65 offense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 15 defense vs. No. 51 offense)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 29 defense vs. No. 65 offense)
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 18 defense vs. No. 53 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Wisconsin offense | Penn State defense | Penn State offense | Wisconsin defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.17 (109) | 1.25 (63) | 1.43 (10) | 1.12 (10) |
| EFFICIENCY | 42.7% (65) | 36.7% (23) | 40.9% (83) | 35.7% (15) |
| FIELD POSITION | 32.7 (18) | 28.3 (46) | 34.2 (6) | 27.4 (28) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.3 (86) | 4.0 (31) | 4.9 (29) | 3.1 (3) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN |
EXPECTED: Wisconsin 9.09 (5) Penn State 2.49 (46) |
ACTUAL Wisconsin 9 (12) Penn State 5 (29) |
||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Wisconsin offense | Penn State offense |
| Adj. Pace | 1.6 (50) | -3.7 (96) |
| Plays per game | 74.1 (62) | 71.1 (86) |
| Possessions per game | 12.4 (94) | 13.5 (35) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 72.5% (10) | 64.4% (38) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 35.7% (46) | 34.1% (60) |
| % of solo tackles | 71.3% (94) | 74.0% (62) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Wisconsin defense | Penn State defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 58.5% (78) | 61.2% (53) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 24.5% (125) | 31.5% (90) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 20.4% (8) | 19.0% (18) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 10.9% (30) | 12.9% (8) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 9.2% (4) | 6.0% (77) |
| PD to INC | 39.8% (10) | 33.1% (65) |
When Wisconsin has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Wisconsin Offense | Penn State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 112.1 | 33 | 116.3 | 19 | Penn State |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 46.7 | 78 | 41.1 | 17 | Penn State big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.05 | 98 | 0.90 | 55 | Penn State |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.00 | 67 | 2.54 | 20 | Penn State |
| SD Sack Rate | 3.5% | 33 | 5.9% | 43 | |
Passing Downs
| Wisconsin Offense | Penn State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 119.0 | 23 | 110.1 | 37 | Wisconsin |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 33.0 | 43 | 28.5 | 36 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.58 | 114 | 1.89 | 55 | Penn State big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 1.72 | 126 | 2.88 | 34 | Penn State big |
| PD Sack Rate | 9.9% | 101 | 10.1% | 19 | Penn State big |
When Penn State has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Penn State Offense | Wisconsin Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 113.1 | 30 | 123.1 | 7 | Wisconsin |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 45.6 | 90 | 42.4 | 25 | Wisconsin big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.17 | 43 | 1.08 | 1 | Wisconsin |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.46 | 120 | 2.72 | 34 | Wisconsin big |
| SD Sack Rate | 4.8% | 66 | 3.5% | 99 | Penn State |
Passing Downs
| Penn State Offense | Wisconsin Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 129.5 | 12 | 125.6 | 14 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 30.9 | 65 | 23.2 | 9 | Wisconsin big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.26 | 1 | 1.71 | 105 | Penn State big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 1.61 | 127 | 2.86 | 33 | Wisconsin big |
| PD Sack Rate | 7% | 54 | 9.6% | 22 | Wisconsin |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Wisconsin | Alex Hornibrook | 6'4, 219 | FR | 104 | 179 | 1243 | 8 | 7 | 58.1% | 13 | 6.8% | 6.0 |
| Wisconsin | Bart Houston | 6'4, 235 | SR | 69 | 108 | 912 | 5 | 3 | 63.9% | 7 | 6.1% | 7.6 |
| Wisconsin | ||||||||||||
| Penn State | Trace McSorley | 6'0, 205 | SO | 184 | 327 | 2976 | 21 | 5 | 56.3% | 21 | 6.0% | 8.1 |
| Penn State | Tommy Stevens | 6'4, 218 | FR | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 66.7% | 1 | 25.0% | 8.8 |
| Penn State |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
| Wisconsin | Corey Clement | RB | 5'11, 227 | SR | 272 | 1140 | 13 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 29.4% |
| Wisconsin | Dare Ogunbowale | RB | 5'11, 205 | SR | 80 | 458 | 3 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 40.0% |
| Wisconsin | Bradrick Shaw | RB | 6'1, 211 | FR | 73 | 395 | 5 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 43.8% |
| Wisconsin | Taiwan Deal | RB | 6'1, 224 | SO | 30 | 155 | 0 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 53.3% |
| Penn State | Saquon Barkley | RB | 5'11, 223 | SO | 228 | 1219 | 15 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 35.5% |
| Penn State | Trace McSorley | QB | 6'0, 205 | SO | 113 | 522 | 6 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 42.5% |
| Penn State | Mark Allen | RB | 5'6, 181 | SO | 28 | 115 | 1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 39.3% |
| Penn State | Miles Sanders | RB | 5'11, 205 | FR | 25 | 184 | 1 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 48.0% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch |
Yds/ Target |
Catch Rate |
| Wisconsin | Jazz Peavy | WR | 6'0, 184 | JR | 79 | 39 | 582 | 5 | 14.9 | 7.4 | 49.4% |
| Wisconsin | Troy Fumagalli | TE | 6'6, 248 | JR | 55 | 38 | 467 | 1 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 69.1% |
| Wisconsin | Robert Wheelwright | WR | 6'3, 211 | SR | 51 | 33 | 436 | 1 | 13.2 | 8.6 | 64.7% |
| Wisconsin | Dare Ogunbowale | RB | 5'11, 205 | SR | 24 | 18 | 152 | 1 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 75.0% |
| Wisconsin | George Rushing | WR | 6'1, 192 | JR | 14 | 10 | 109 | 0 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 71.4% |
| Wisconsin | Alec Ingold | FB | 6'2, 238 | SO | 10 | 6 | 55 | 2 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 60.0% |
| Wisconsin | Corey Clement | RB | 5'11, 227 | SR | 9 | 7 | 61 | 0 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 77.8% |
| Penn State | Chris Godwin | WR | 6'1, 205 | JR | 84 | 47 | 762 | 9 | 16.2 | 9.1 | 56.0% |
| Penn State | Mike Gesicki | TE | 6'6, 252 | JR | 62 | 44 | 610 | 3 | 13.9 | 9.8 | 71.0% |
| Penn State | DaeSean Hamilton | WR | 6'1, 205 | JR | 54 | 26 | 388 | 1 | 14.9 | 7.2 | 48.1% |
| Penn State | DeAndre Thompkins | WR | 5'11, 190 | SO | 40 | 25 | 431 | 1 | 17.2 | 10.8 | 62.5% |
| Penn State | Saquon Barkley | RB | 5'11, 223 | SO | 30 | 21 | 327 | 2 | 15.6 | 10.9 | 70.0% |
| Penn State | Saeed Blacknall | WR | 6'3, 212 | JR | 20 | 9 | 192 | 1 | 21.3 | 9.6 | 45.0% |
| Penn State | Juwan Johnson | WR | 6'4, 218 | FR | 6 | 2 | 70 | 0 | 35.0 | 11.7 | 33.3% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Wisconsin | T.J. Edwards | ILB | 6'1, 244 | SO | 59.0 | 10.6% | 8.5 | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Jack Cichy | ILB | 6'2, 233 | JR | 52.5 | 9.5% | 7.0 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Leo Musso | S | 5'10, 194 | SR | 49.5 | 8.9% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Wisconsin | T.J. Watt | OLB | 6'5, 243 | JR | 43.5 | 7.9% | 13.0 | 9.5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | D'Cota Dixon | S | 5'10, 197 | JR | 38.0 | 6.9% | 2.5 | 1.0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Wisconsin | Ryan Connelly | ILB | 6'3, 235 | SO | 36.0 | 6.5% | 4.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Garret Dooley | OLB | 6'3, 247 | JR | 30.0 | 5.4% | 6.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Leon Jacobs | FB | 6'2, 238 | JR | 27.0 | 4.9% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Vince Biegel | OLB | 6'4, 245 | SR | 25.0 | 4.5% | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Derrick Tindal | CB | 5'11, 175 | JR | 25.0 | 4.5% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Lubern Figaro | S | 6'0, 182 | JR | 23.0 | 4.2% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Sojourn Shelton | CB | 5'9, 168 | SR | 22.5 | 4.1% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 1 |
| Wisconsin | Conor Sheehy | DE | 6'4, 288 | JR | 19.5 | 3.5% | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Penn State | Marcus Allen | S | 6'2, 202 | JR | 68.0 | 9.9% | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Penn State | Brandon Bell | LB | 6'1, 233 | SR | 52.0 | 7.6% | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Penn State | Malik Golden | S | 6'0, 205 | SR | 49.5 | 7.2% | 4.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Penn State | Manny Bowen | LB | 6'1, 220 | SO | 47.0 | 6.8% | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Penn State | Jason Cabinda | LB | 6'1, 232 | JR | 44.0 | 6.4% | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Penn State | Brandon Smith | LB | 6'0, 228 | JR | 37.5 | 5.5% | 4.0 | 0.5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Penn State | Garrett Sickels | DE | 6'4, 260 | JR | 31.5 | 4.6% | 12.5 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Penn State | John Reid | CB | 5'10, 191 | SO | 27.5 | 4.0% | 4.0 | 0.5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 |
| Penn State | Cam Brown | LB | 6'5, 215 | FR | 21.0 | 3.1% | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Penn State | Torrence Brown | DE | 6'3, 257 | SO | 20.5 | 3.0% | 6.0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Penn State | Grant Haley | CB | 5'9, 185 | JR | 20.5 | 3.0% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Penn State | Troy Apke | S | 6'1, 206 | JR | 19.5 | 2.8% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Penn State | Evan Schwan | DE | 6'6, 263 | SR | 18.5 | 2.7% | 7.5 | 6.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Wisconsin | Anthony Lotti | 6'0, 186 | FR | 44 | 37.7 | 1 | 10 | 16 | 59.1% |
| Wisconsin | P.J. Rosowski | 6'3, 211 | SO | 15 | 36.7 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 53.3% |
| Penn State | Blake Gillikin | 6'2, 182 | FR | 54 | 41.8 | 5 | 17 | 19 | 66.7% |
| Penn State | Daniel Pasquariello | 6'1, 197 | JR | 2 | 37.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches |
Onside Att |
Onside Success |
| Wisconsin | P.J. Rosowski | 6'3, 211 | SO | 68 | 63.5 | 45 | 66.2% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Andrew Endicott | 5'9, 173 | SR | 2 | 47.0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Penn State | Joey Julius | 5'10, 258 | SO | 86 | 61.9 | 41 | 47.7% | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Wisconsin | Andrew Endicott | 5'9, 173 | SR | 28-30 | 11-16 | 68.8% |
| Wisconsin | Rafael Gaglianone | 5'11, 219 | JR | 10-10 | 7-8 | 87.5% |
| Penn State | Tyler Davis | 5'11, 180 | JR | 50-50 | 21-23 | 91.3% |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Wisconsin | Dare Ogunbowale | 5'11, 205 | SR | 10 | 21.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Wisconsin | Natrell Jamerson | 6'0, 188 | JR | 9 | 21.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 (0) |
| Penn State | Miles Sanders | 5'11, 205 | FR | 26 | 21.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 (1) |
| Penn State | Nick Scott | 5'11, 200 | SO | 6 | 23.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Wisconsin | Jazz Peavy | 6'0, 184 | JR | 16 | 6.2 | 0 | 10 | 1 (1) |
| Wisconsin | Corey Clement | 5'11, 227 | SR | 2 | 14.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 (0) |
| Penn State | John Reid | 5'10, 191 | SO | 21 | 7.7 | 0 | 8 | 1 (1) |
| Penn State | Gregg Garrity | 5'10, 170 | SR | 3 | 4.7 | 0 | 9 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics