It’s been an up and down year against Vegas, but S&P+ finished the regular season with a bang.
- Weeks 1-2: 45-41-1 (52%)
- Weeks 3-5: 69-95-2 (42%)
- Weeks 6-9: 115-92-3 (55%)
- Week 10: 19-38-1 (34%)
- Week 11-13: 97-70-5 (58%) — 35-22-2 last week (61%)
Win probabilities (on the “Totals” tab of the google doc below) have killed for the second straight year, and after a massive run of early-season bad luck (missing on virtually every game decided within 2-3 points of the spread), S&P+ is back on the healthy side of 50% against the spread, too. (F/+, meanwhile — the combination of S&P+ and FEI — is even healthier.)
Since the worst part of that unlucky run (weeks 3-5), S&P+ is at 231-190-9 (55%). I’ll take it.
As your weekly refresher, I’ve been playing with standard deviations and volatility to see if I can come up with a way to determine which picks are most likely to succeed in a given week. The results have been mixed, but on we go.
- Fournette-Nkemdiche Picks — Week 13: 5-0 | Season to date: 24-13-3 (64%)
- All-Conference Picks — Week 13: 0-0 | Season to date: 19-13-1 (59%)
- YOU-CAN-WIN-WITH-THEM-IF-YOU’RE-A-GOOD-DEVELOPER-OF-TALENT PICKS— Week 13: 6-2 | Season to date: 45-29 (61%)
Basically all S&P+ picks did well, and these were no exception.
FOURNETTE-NKEMDICHE PICKS (the top 5 most likely covers of the week)
Since this week is so small, I’m only posting the top three. And two of the three make me nervous.
- Temple (+3) at Navy
- Baylor (+18) at West Virginia
- Arkansas State (-23) at Texas State
S&P+ has had a shaky read of Navy this season, and Baylor collapsed weeks ago. But hey, as long as Arkansas State romps as it should against the worst team in FBS, F-N will go at least 1-2.
None qualified this week.
- Troy (-7) at Georgia Southern
- UL-Lafayette (-6.5) at UL-Monroe
The lines on the conference title games are pretty good. Expect a lot of close-to-the-spread finishes.
Here’s the updated Google doc with all picks. Once again, there are three sets listed: S&P+, Weighted S&P+, and F/+. And, as always, here’s a completely useless embed, just for fun: