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Michigan Wolverines (10-1) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1)
November 26, 2016 ( 12:00 PM ET, ABC )
Spread: Ohio State -6.5
S&P+ Projection: Michigan (25.1-22.6)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
Category | Michigan | Ohio State | ||
S&P+ (Rk) | 2 | 3 | ||
Category | Michigan offense | Ohio State defense | Ohio State offense | Michigan defense |
Yards per play (Rk) | 6.04 (34) | 4.08 (3) | 5.92 (42) | 3.95 (2) |
Yards per game (Rk) | 452.2 (37) | 274.0 (3) | 475.0 (28) | 248.5 (1) |
Points per possession (Rk) | 3.37 (8) | 1.01 (3) | 3.44 (6) | 0.86 (2) |
Category | Michigan offense | Ohio State defense | Ohio State offense | Michigan defense |
S&P+ (Rk) | 36.1 (25) | 15.1 (7) | 38.6 (14) | 5.6 (1) |
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 112.4 (28) | 117.9 (20) | 134.4 (2) | 144.8 (2) |
Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 127.8 (11) | 134.1 (5) | 107.0 (52) | 171.7 (1) |
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 116.9 (19) | 127.6 (5) | 126.3 (3) | 149.7 (2) |
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 120.5 (23) | 124.1 (16) | 106.8 (56) | 163.2 (3) |
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 129.0 (13) | 113.8 (27) | 129.9 (12) | 151.5 (4) |
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 134.4 (5) | 140.6 (7) | 121.7 (18) | 146.5 (5) |
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 125.4 (17) | 169.6 (2) | 134.5 (7) | 137.5 (4) |
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 108.7 (37) | 138.9 (1) | 109.4 (33) | 124.7 (8) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Michigan
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 1 defense vs. No. 67 offense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 1 defense vs. No. 65 offense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 27 offense vs. No. 89 defense)
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 2 defense vs. No. 59 offense)
- Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 3 defense vs. No. 56 offense)
Ohio State
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 4 defense vs. No. 68 offense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 1 defense vs. No. 57 offense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 1 defense vs. No. 36 offense)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 26 defense vs. No. 45 offense)
- Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 7 defense vs. No. 21 offense)
Five Factors
Category | Michigan offense | Ohio State defense | Ohio State offense | Michigan defense |
EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.31 (48) | 1.31 (99) | 1.19 (102) | 1.10 (4) |
EFFICIENCY | 44.5% (41) | 33.8% (7) | 48.6% (14) | 28.2% (2) |
FIELD POSITION | 35.5 (1) | 25.2 (4) | 33.7 (7) | 26.6 (14) |
FINISHING DRIVES | 5.1 (17) | 3.2 (7) | 5.2 (12) | 2.7 (1) |
TURNOVER MARGIN |
EXPECTED: Michigan 3.81 (32) Ohio State 3.16 (41) |
ACTUAL Michigan 8 (15) Ohio State 14 (4) |
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) | Michigan offense | Ohio State offense |
Adj. Pace | 1.4 (54) | 6.7 (13) |
Plays per game | 74.8 (58) | 80.2 (20) |
Possessions per game | 12.5 (87) | 12.7 (78) |
Std. Downs Run Rate | 62.7% (50) | 64.9% (35) |
Pass. Downs Run Rate | 45.2% (15) | 36.5% (45) |
% of solo tackles | 74.5% (58) | 67.9% (111) |
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) | Michigan defense | Ohio State defense |
Std. Downs Run Rate | 65.6% (20) | 63.7% (31) |
Pass. Downs Run Rate | 33.9% (61) | 31.7% (88) |
Overall Havoc Rate | 24.3% (1) | 20.0% (10) |
Front 7 Havoc Rate | 16.1% (1) | 12.2% (14) |
DB Havoc Rate | 8.2% (18) | 7.8% (22) |
PD to INC | 36.0% (38) | 35.2% (42) |
When Michigan has the ball…
Standard Downs
Michigan Offense | Ohio State Defense | ||||
Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
Standard Downs S&P+ | 116.9 | 19 | 127.6 | 5 | Ohio State |
Standard Downs Success Rate | 49.5 | 43 | 38.0 | 4 | Ohio State |
Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.12 | 63 | 1.02 | 66 | |
SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.15 | 46 | 2.36 | 12 | Ohio State |
SD Sack Rate | 3.6% | 37 | 4.6% | 72 | Michigan |
Passing Downs
Michigan Offense | Ohio State Defense | ||||
Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
Passing Downs S&P+ | 120.5 | 23 | 124.1 | 16 | |
Passing Downs Success Rate | 31.5 | 62 | 25.9 | 19 | Ohio State |
Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.07 | 8 | 1.30 | 103 | Michigan big |
PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.78 | 106 | 0.98 | 1 | Ohio State big |
PD Sack Rate | 7.5% | 65 | 6.2% | 88 | Michigan |
When Ohio State has the ball…
Standard Downs
Ohio State Offense | Michigan Defense | ||||
Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
Standard Downs S&P+ | 126.3 | 3 | 149.7 | 2 | |
Standard Downs Success Rate | 56.1 | 5 | 32.4 | 1 | |
Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.03 | 105 | 1.10 | 28 | Michigan big |
SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.57 | 4 | 2.01 | 1 | |
SD Sack Rate | 4.6% | 62 | 8.2% | 10 | Michigan big |
Passing Downs
Ohio State Offense | Michigan Defense | ||||
Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
Passing Downs S&P+ | 106.8 | 56 | 163.2 | 3 | Michigan big |
Passing Downs Success Rate | 31.2 | 64 | 21.8 | 6 | Michigan big |
Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.83 | 41 | 1.90 | 1 | Michigan |
PD Line Yards per Carry | 4.02 | 11 | 2.13 | 7 | |
PD Sack Rate | 7.5% | 65 | 16.5% | 1 | Michigan big |
Individual Passing Stats
Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
Michigan | Wilton Speight | 6'6, 243 | JR | 160 | 257 | 2156 | 15 | 4 | 62.3% | 14 | 5.2% | 7.6 |
Michigan | John O'Korn | 6'4, 215 | SR | 20 | 34 | 173 | 2 | 0 | 58.8% | 2 | 5.6% | 4.6 |
Michigan | Shane Morris | 6'3, 213 | SR | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 80.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 9.0 |
Ohio State | J.T. Barrett | 6'2, 222 | JR | 199 | 314 | 2304 | 24 | 4 | 63.4% | 16 | 4.8% | 6.7 |
Ohio State | Joe Burrow | 6'3, 218 | FR | 22 | 28 | 226 | 2 | 0 | 78.6% | 1 | 3.4% | 7.6 |
Ohio State |
Individual Rushing Stats
Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
Michigan | De'Veon Smith | RB | 5'11, 228 | SR | 144 | 750 | 10 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 35.4% |
Michigan | Chris Evans | RB | 5'11, 200 | FR | 75 | 547 | 3 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 48.0% |
Michigan | Ty Isaac | RB | 6'3, 230 | SR | 74 | 417 | 5 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 43.2% |
Michigan | Karan Higdon | RB | 5'10, 189 | SO | 65 | 417 | 6 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 47.7% |
Ohio State | Mike Weber | RB | 5'10, 212 | FR | 166 | 1046 | 8 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 43.4% |
Ohio State | J.T. Barrett | QB | 6'2, 222 | JR | 148 | 817 | 8 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 45.9% |
Ohio State | Curtis Samuel | HB | 5'11, 197 | JR | 84 | 650 | 7 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 61.9% |
Ohio State | Demario McCall | RB | 5'9, 182 | FR | 49 | 270 | 3 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 40.8% |
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. |
Individual Receiving Stats
Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch |
Yds/ Target |
Catch Rate |
Michigan | Amara Darboh | WR | 6'2, 215 | SR | 77 | 44 | 758 | 6 | 17.2 | 9.8 | 57.1% |
Michigan | Jake Butt | TE | 6'6, 250 | SR | 55 | 39 | 472 | 4 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 70.9% |
Michigan | Jehu Chesson | WR | 6'3, 203 | SR | 55 | 29 | 458 | 2 | 15.8 | 8.3 | 52.7% |
Michigan | Grant Perry | WR | 6'0, 196 | SO | 19 | 9 | 134 | 1 | 14.9 | 7.1 | 47.4% |
Michigan | De'Veon Smith | RB | 5'11, 228 | SR | 15 | 11 | 38 | 0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 73.3% |
Michigan | Khalid Hill | FB | 6'2, 263 | SR | 14 | 13 | 97 | 1 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 92.9% |
Michigan | Chris Evans | RB | 5'11, 200 | FR | 8 | 6 | 87 | 0 | 14.5 | 10.9 | 75.0% |
Ohio State | Curtis Samuel | HB | 5'11, 197 | JR | 76 | 61 | 790 | 7 | 13.0 | 10.4 | 80.3% |
Ohio State | Noah Brown | WR | 6'2, 218 | SO | 42 | 27 | 345 | 7 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 64.3% |
Ohio State | Marcus Baugh | TE | 6'5, 258 | JR | 39 | 21 | 242 | 2 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 53.8% |
Ohio State | Dontre Wilson | WR | 5'10, 195 | SR | 33 | 26 | 343 | 5 | 13.2 | 10.4 | 78.8% |
Ohio State | Parris Campbell | WR | 6'1, 208 | SO | 24 | 13 | 121 | 0 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 54.2% |
Ohio State | Mike Weber | RB | 5'10, 212 | FR | 23 | 18 | 90 | 0 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 78.3% |
Ohio State | K.J. Hill | WR | 6'0, 200 | FR | 21 | 15 | 235 | 1 | 15.7 | 11.2 | 71.4% |
Individual Defensive Stats
Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Michigan | Ben Gedeon | LB | 6'3, 247 | SR | 57.5 | 10.8% | 13.0 | 3.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Michigan | Jabrill Peppers | LB | 6'1, 205 | JR | 54.0 | 10.1% | 15.0 | 3.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Michigan | Mike McCray | LB | 6'4, 248 | SR | 48.5 | 9.1% | 12.0 | 3.5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Michigan | Dymonte Thomas | S | 6'2, 199 | SR | 46.5 | 8.7% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Michigan | Delano Hill | S | 6'1, 215 | SR | 34.0 | 6.4% | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Michigan | Ryan Glasgow | DT | 6'4, 299 | SR | 26.5 | 5.0% | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Michigan | Chris Wormley | DE | 6'6, 302 | SR | 25.0 | 4.7% | 7.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Michigan | Maurice Hurst | DT | 6'2, 282 | SR | 23.5 | 4.4% | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Michigan | Chase Winovich | DE | 6'3, 245 | JR | 21.5 | 4.0% | 7.5 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Michigan | Matthew Godin | DT | 6'6, 294 | SR | 19.5 | 3.7% | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Michigan | Taco Charlton | DE | 6'6, 272 | SR | 19.0 | 3.6% | 8.5 | 6.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Michigan | Channing Stribling | CB | 6'2, 175 | SR | 18.5 | 3.5% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Michigan | Rashan Gary | DE | 6'5, 287 | FR | 16.5 | 3.1% | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ohio State | Raekwon McMillan | LB | 6'2, 243 | JR | 50.5 | 9.2% | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Ohio State | Jerome Baker | LB | 6'1, 225 | SO | 49.5 | 9.0% | 7.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Ohio State | Malik Hooker | S | 6'2, 205 | SO | 47.5 | 8.7% | 4.5 | 0.5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Ohio State | Chris Worley | LB | 6'2, 228 | JR | 39.0 | 7.1% | 4.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Ohio State | Damon Webb | CB | 5'10, 195 | JR | 37.5 | 6.9% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Ohio State | Marshon Lattimore | CB | 6'0, 192 | SO | 27.5 | 5.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Ohio State | Dre'Mont Jones | DL | 6'3, 280 | FR | 27.0 | 4.9% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ohio State | Sam Hubbard | DE | 6'5, 266 | SO | 26.0 | 4.8% | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Ohio State | Tyquan Lewis | DL | 6'4, 266 | JR | 22.0 | 4.0% | 10.0 | 7.5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Ohio State | Jalyn Holmes | DE | 6'5, 274 | JR | 21.5 | 3.9% | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Ohio State | Nick Bosa | DE | 6'4, 265 | FR | 18.0 | 3.3% | 6.0 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ohio State | Gareon Conley | CB | 6'0, 195 | JR | 17.0 | 3.1% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Ohio State | Denzel Ward | CB | 5'10, 185 | SO | 14.5 | 2.7% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. |
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
Michigan | Kenny Allen | 6'4, 222 | SR | 39 | 41.8 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 51.3% |
Ohio State | Cameron Johnston | 5'11, 198 | SR | 43 | 46.3 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 72.1% |
Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches |
Onside Att |
Onside Success |
Michigan | Kenny Allen | 6'4, 222 | SR | 73 | 64.1 | 41 | 56.2% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Michigan | James Foug | 5'11, 175 | SO | 8 | 57.5 | 2 | 25.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ohio State | Tyler Durbin | 6'3, 210 | SR | 88 | 60.7 | 35 | 39.8% | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
Michigan | Kenny Allen | 6'4, 222 | SR | 49-49 | 14-18 | 77.8% |
Michigan | Ryan Tice | 6'1, 170 | SO | 10-10 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
Ohio State | Tyler Durbin | 6'3, 210 | SR | 60-62 | 16-16 | 100.0% |
Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
Michigan | Jabrill Peppers | 6'1, 205 | JR | 9 | 24.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Michigan | Jourdan Lewis | 5'11, 186 | SR | 4 | 10.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Ohio State | Parris Campbell | 6'1, 208 | SO | 18 | 26.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Ohio State | Dontre Wilson | 5'10, 195 | SR | 3 | 20.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
Michigan | Grant Perry | 6'0, 196 | SO | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Michigan | Jabrill Peppers | 6'1, 205 | JR | 20 | 15.3 | 1 | 17 | 1 (0) |
Ohio State | Dontre Wilson | 5'10, 195 | SR | 17 | 6.3 | 0 | 15 | 4 (1) |
Ohio State | Curtis Samuel | 5'11, 197 | JR | 4 | 4.5 | 0 | 3 | 1 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics