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Michigan at Ohio State: Advanced stats tale of the tape

Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Michigan Wolverines (10-1) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1)

November 26, 2016 ( 12:00 PM ET, ABC )
Spread: Ohio State -6.5
S&P+ Projection: Michigan (25.1-22.6)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Michigan Ohio State
S&P+ (Rk) 2 3
Category Michigan offense Ohio State defense Ohio State offense Michigan defense
Yards per play (Rk) 6.04 (34) 4.08 (3) 5.92 (42) 3.95 (2)
Yards per game (Rk) 452.2 (37) 274.0 (3) 475.0 (28) 248.5 (1)
Points per possession (Rk) 3.37 (8) 1.01 (3) 3.44 (6) 0.86 (2)
Category Michigan offense Ohio State defense Ohio State offense Michigan defense
S&P+ (Rk) 36.1 (25) 15.1 (7) 38.6 (14) 5.6 (1)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 112.4 (28) 117.9 (20) 134.4 (2) 144.8 (2)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 127.8 (11) 134.1 (5) 107.0 (52) 171.7 (1)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 116.9 (19) 127.6 (5) 126.3 (3) 149.7 (2)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 120.5 (23) 124.1 (16) 106.8 (56) 163.2 (3)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 129.0 (13) 113.8 (27) 129.9 (12) 151.5 (4)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 134.4 (5) 140.6 (7) 121.7 (18) 146.5 (5)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 125.4 (17) 169.6 (2) 134.5 (7) 137.5 (4)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 108.7 (37) 138.9 (1) 109.4 (33) 124.7 (8)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Michigan

  1. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 1 defense vs. No. 67 offense)
  2. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 1 defense vs. No. 65 offense)
  3. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 27 offense vs. No. 89 defense)
  4. Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 2 defense vs. No. 59 offense)
  5. Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 3 defense vs. No. 56 offense)

Ohio State

  1. Adj. Line Yards (No. 4 defense vs. No. 68 offense)
  2. Run Stuffs (No. 1 defense vs. No. 57 offense)
  3. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 1 defense vs. No. 36 offense)
  4. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 26 defense vs. No. 45 offense)
  5. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 7 defense vs. No. 21 offense)
Five Factors
Category Michigan offense Ohio State defense Ohio State offense Michigan defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.31 (48) 1.31 (99) 1.19 (102) 1.10 (4)
EFFICIENCY 44.5% (41) 33.8% (7) 48.6% (14) 28.2% (2)
FIELD POSITION 35.5 (1) 25.2 (4) 33.7 (7) 26.6 (14)
FINISHING DRIVES 5.1 (17) 3.2 (7) 5.2 (12) 2.7 (1)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Michigan 3.81 (32)
Ohio State 3.16 (41)
ACTUAL
Michigan 8 (15)
Ohio State 14 (4)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Michigan offense Ohio State offense
Adj. Pace 1.4 (54) 6.7 (13)
Plays per game 74.8 (58) 80.2 (20)
Possessions per game 12.5 (87) 12.7 (78)
Std. Downs Run Rate 62.7% (50) 64.9% (35)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 45.2% (15) 36.5% (45)
% of solo tackles 74.5% (58) 67.9% (111)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Michigan defense Ohio State defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 65.6% (20) 63.7% (31)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 33.9% (61) 31.7% (88)
Overall Havoc Rate 24.3% (1) 20.0% (10)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 16.1% (1) 12.2% (14)
DB Havoc Rate 8.2% (18) 7.8% (22)
PD to INC 36.0% (38) 35.2% (42)

When Michigan has the ball…

Standard Downs
Michigan Offense Ohio State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 116.9 19 127.6 5 Ohio State
Standard Downs Success Rate 49.5 43 38.0 4 Ohio State
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.12 63 1.02 66
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.15 46 2.36 12 Ohio State
SD Sack Rate 3.6% 37 4.6% 72 Michigan
Passing Downs
Michigan Offense Ohio State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 120.5 23 124.1 16
Passing Downs Success Rate 31.5 62 25.9 19 Ohio State
Passing Downs IsoPPP 2.07 8 1.30 103 Michigan big
PD Line Yards per Carry 2.78 106 0.98 1 Ohio State big
PD Sack Rate 7.5% 65 6.2% 88 Michigan

When Ohio State has the ball…

Standard Downs
Ohio State Offense Michigan Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 126.3 3 149.7 2
Standard Downs Success Rate 56.1 5 32.4 1
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.03 105 1.10 28 Michigan big
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.57 4 2.01 1
SD Sack Rate 4.6% 62 8.2% 10 Michigan big
Passing Downs
Ohio State Offense Michigan Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 106.8 56 163.2 3 Michigan big
Passing Downs Success Rate 31.2 64 21.8 6 Michigan big
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.83 41 1.90 1 Michigan
PD Line Yards per Carry 4.02 11 2.13 7
PD Sack Rate 7.5% 65 16.5% 1 Michigan big
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Michigan Wilton Speight 6'6, 243 JR 160 257 2156 15 4 62.3% 14 5.2% 7.6
Michigan John O'Korn 6'4, 215 SR 20 34 173 2 0 58.8% 2 5.6% 4.6
Michigan Shane Morris 6'3, 213 SR 4 5 45 0 0 80.0% 0 0.0% 9.0
Ohio State J.T. Barrett 6'2, 222 JR 199 314 2304 24 4 63.4% 16 4.8% 6.7
Ohio State Joe Burrow 6'3, 218 FR 22 28 226 2 0 78.6% 1 3.4% 7.6
Ohio State
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Michigan De'Veon Smith RB 5'11, 228 SR 144 750 10 5.2 6.0 35.4%
Michigan Chris Evans RB 5'11, 200 FR 75 547 3 7.3 7.4 48.0%
Michigan Ty Isaac RB 6'3, 230 SR 74 417 5 5.6 4.7 43.2%
Michigan Karan Higdon RB 5'10, 189 SO 65 417 6 6.4 6.2 47.7%
Ohio State Mike Weber RB 5'10, 212 FR 166 1046 8 6.3 6.0 43.4%
Ohio State J.T. Barrett QB 6'2, 222 JR 148 817 8 5.5 3.7 45.9%
Ohio State Curtis Samuel HB 5'11, 197 JR 84 650 7 7.7 5.9 61.9%
Ohio State Demario McCall RB 5'9, 182 FR 49 270 3 5.5 4.2 40.8%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Michigan Amara Darboh WR 6'2, 215 SR 77 44 758 6 17.2 9.8 57.1%
Michigan Jake Butt TE 6'6, 250 SR 55 39 472 4 12.1 8.6 70.9%
Michigan Jehu Chesson WR 6'3, 203 SR 55 29 458 2 15.8 8.3 52.7%
Michigan Grant Perry WR 6'0, 196 SO 19 9 134 1 14.9 7.1 47.4%
Michigan De'Veon Smith RB 5'11, 228 SR 15 11 38 0 3.5 2.5 73.3%
Michigan Khalid Hill FB 6'2, 263 SR 14 13 97 1 7.5 6.9 92.9%
Michigan Chris Evans RB 5'11, 200 FR 8 6 87 0 14.5 10.9 75.0%
Ohio State Curtis Samuel HB 5'11, 197 JR 76 61 790 7 13.0 10.4 80.3%
Ohio State Noah Brown WR 6'2, 218 SO 42 27 345 7 12.8 8.2 64.3%
Ohio State Marcus Baugh TE 6'5, 258 JR 39 21 242 2 11.5 6.2 53.8%
Ohio State Dontre Wilson WR 5'10, 195 SR 33 26 343 5 13.2 10.4 78.8%
Ohio State Parris Campbell WR 6'1, 208 SO 24 13 121 0 9.3 5.0 54.2%
Ohio State Mike Weber RB 5'10, 212 FR 23 18 90 0 5.0 3.9 78.3%
Ohio State K.J. Hill WR 6'0, 200 FR 21 15 235 1 15.7 11.2 71.4%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Michigan Ben Gedeon LB 6'3, 247 SR 57.5 10.8% 13.0 3.5 0 2 0 0
Michigan Jabrill Peppers LB 6'1, 205 JR 54.0 10.1% 15.0 3.5 0 1 1 0
Michigan Mike McCray LB 6'4, 248 SR 48.5 9.1% 12.0 3.5 1 4 1 0
Michigan Dymonte Thomas S 6'2, 199 SR 46.5 8.7% 0.0 0.0 1 7 0 0
Michigan Delano Hill S 6'1, 215 SR 34.0 6.4% 3.5 0.0 3 3 1 0
Michigan Ryan Glasgow DT 6'4, 299 SR 26.5 5.0% 8.0 3.0 0 1 1 0
Michigan Chris Wormley DE 6'6, 302 SR 25.0 4.7% 7.5 4.5 0 0 0 0
Michigan Maurice Hurst DT 6'2, 282 SR 23.5 4.4% 9.5 3.5 0 0 0 0
Michigan Chase Winovich DE 6'3, 245 JR 21.5 4.0% 7.5 5.0 0 0 1 0
Michigan Matthew Godin DT 6'6, 294 SR 19.5 3.7% 2.5 1.0 0 0 0 0
Michigan Taco Charlton DE 6'6, 272 SR 19.0 3.6% 8.5 6.5 0 1 0 0
Michigan Channing Stribling CB 6'2, 175 SR 18.5 3.5% 1.0 0.0 4 11 0 0
Michigan Rashan Gary DE 6'5, 287 FR 16.5 3.1% 5.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Ohio State Raekwon McMillan LB 6'2, 243 JR 50.5 9.2% 4.5 1.0 0 4 2 0
Ohio State Jerome Baker LB 6'1, 225 SO 49.5 9.0% 7.5 2.5 1 0 0 1
Ohio State Malik Hooker S 6'2, 205 SO 47.5 8.7% 4.5 0.5 5 4 0 0
Ohio State Chris Worley LB 6'2, 228 JR 39.0 7.1% 4.5 0.0 1 4 1 0
Ohio State Damon Webb CB 5'10, 195 JR 37.5 6.9% 2.0 0.0 1 3 0 0
Ohio State Marshon Lattimore CB 6'0, 192 SO 27.5 5.0% 0.0 0.0 4 9 0 0
Ohio State Dre'Mont Jones DL 6'3, 280 FR 27.0 4.9% 2.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Ohio State Sam Hubbard DE 6'5, 266 SO 26.0 4.8% 6.5 3.0 0 2 0 0
Ohio State Tyquan Lewis DL 6'4, 266 JR 22.0 4.0% 10.0 7.5 0 1 3 0
Ohio State Jalyn Holmes DE 6'5, 274 JR 21.5 3.9% 8.0 2.0 0 0 1 1
Ohio State Nick Bosa DE 6'4, 265 FR 18.0 3.3% 6.0 4.0 0 0 0 0
Ohio State Gareon Conley CB 6'0, 195 JR 17.0 3.1% 0.0 0.0 3 7 0 0
Ohio State Denzel Ward CB 5'10, 185 SO 14.5 2.7% 0.0 0.0 0 8 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Michigan Kenny Allen 6'4, 222 SR 39 41.8 4 7 13 51.3%
Ohio State Cameron Johnston 5'11, 198 SR 43 46.3 5 16 15 72.1%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Michigan Kenny Allen 6'4, 222 SR 73 64.1 41 56.2% 0 0 0 0
Michigan James Foug 5'11, 175 SO 8 57.5 2 25.0% 0 0 0 0
Ohio State Tyler Durbin 6'3, 210 SR 88 60.7 35 39.8% 0 4 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Michigan Kenny Allen 6'4, 222 SR 49-49 14-18 77.8%
Michigan Ryan Tice 6'1, 170 SO 10-10 0-1 0.0%
Ohio State Tyler Durbin 6'3, 210 SR 60-62 16-16 100.0%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Michigan Jabrill Peppers 6'1, 205 JR 9 24.0 0 0 0 (0)
Michigan Jourdan Lewis 5'11, 186 SR 4 10.5 0 0 0 (0)
Ohio State Parris Campbell 6'1, 208 SO 18 26.6 0 0 0 (0)
Ohio State Dontre Wilson 5'10, 195 SR 3 20.7 0 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Michigan Grant Perry 6'0, 196 SO 0 0.0 1 0 0 (0)
Michigan Jabrill Peppers 6'1, 205 JR 20 15.3 1 17 1 (0)
Ohio State Dontre Wilson 5'10, 195 SR 17 6.3 0 15 4 (1)
Ohio State Curtis Samuel 5'11, 197 JR 4 4.5 0 3 1 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics