Michigan at Ohio State: Advanced stats tale of the tape

Michigan Wolverines (10-1) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1)

November 26, 2016 ( 12:00 PM ET, ABC )

Spread: Ohio State -6.5

S&P+ Projection: Michigan (25.1-22.6)

_{Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.}

The Basics

Category	Michigan		Ohio State
S&P+ (Rk)	2		3
Category	Michigan offense	Ohio State defense	Ohio State offense	Michigan defense
Yards per play (Rk)	6.04 (34)	4.08 (3)	5.92 (42)	3.95 (2)
Yards per game (Rk)	452.2 (37)	274.0 (3)	475.0 (28)	248.5 (1)
Points per possession (Rk)	3.37 (8)	1.01 (3)	3.44 (6)	0.86 (2)
Category	Michigan offense	Ohio State defense	Ohio State offense	Michigan defense
S&P+ (Rk)	36.1 (25)	15.1 (7)	38.6 (14)	5.6 (1)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk)	112.4 (28)	117.9 (20)	134.4 (2)	144.8 (2)
Passing S&P+ (Rk)	127.8 (11)	134.1 (5)	107.0 (52)	171.7 (1)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk)	116.9 (19)	127.6 (5)	126.3 (3)	149.7 (2)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk)	120.5 (23)	124.1 (16)	106.8 (56)	163.2 (3)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk)	129.0 (13)	113.8 (27)	129.9 (12)	151.5 (4)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)	134.4 (5)	140.6 (7)	121.7 (18)	146.5 (5)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)	125.4 (17)	169.6 (2)	134.5 (7)	137.5 (4)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)	108.7 (37)	138.9 (1)	109.4 (33)	124.7 (8)

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

Michigan

1. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 1 defense vs. No. 67 offense)
2. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 1 defense vs. No. 65 offense)
3. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 27 offense vs. No. 89 defense)
4. Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 2 defense vs. No. 59 offense)
5. Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 3 defense vs. No. 56 offense)

Ohio State

1. Adj. Line Yards (No. 4 defense vs. No. 68 offense)
2. Run Stuffs (No. 1 defense vs. No. 57 offense)
3. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 1 defense vs. No. 36 offense)
4. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 26 defense vs. No. 45 offense)
5. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 7 defense vs. No. 21 offense)

Five Factors

Category	Michigan offense	Ohio State defense	Ohio State offense	Michigan defense
EXPLOSIVENESS	1.31 (48)	1.31 (99)	1.19 (102)	1.10 (4)
EFFICIENCY	44.5% (41)	33.8% (7)	48.6% (14)	28.2% (2)
FIELD POSITION	35.5 (1)	25.2 (4)	33.7 (7)	26.6 (14)
FINISHING DRIVES	5.1 (17)	3.2 (7)	5.2 (12)	2.7 (1)
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED: Michigan 3.81 (32) Ohio State 3.16 (41)		ACTUAL Michigan 8 (15) Ohio State 14 (4)

Offensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Michigan offense	Ohio State offense
Adj. Pace	1.4 (54)	6.7 (13)
Plays per game	74.8 (58)	80.2 (20)
Possessions per game	12.5 (87)	12.7 (78)
Std. Downs Run Rate	62.7% (50)	64.9% (35)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	45.2% (15)	36.5% (45)
% of solo tackles	74.5% (58)	67.9% (111)

Defensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Michigan defense	Ohio State defense
Std. Downs Run Rate	65.6% (20)	63.7% (31)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	33.9% (61)	31.7% (88)
Overall Havoc Rate	24.3% (1)	20.0% (10)
Front 7 Havoc Rate	16.1% (1)	12.2% (14)
DB Havoc Rate	8.2% (18)	7.8% (22)
PD to INC	36.0% (38)	35.2% (42)

When Michigan has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Michigan Offense		Ohio State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	116.9	19	127.6	5	Ohio State
Standard Downs Success Rate	49.5	43	38.0	4	Ohio State
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.12	63	1.02	66
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.15	46	2.36	12	Ohio State
SD Sack Rate	3.6%	37	4.6%	72	Michigan

Passing Downs

	Michigan Offense		Ohio State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	120.5	23	124.1	16
Passing Downs Success Rate	31.5	62	25.9	19	Ohio State
Passing Downs IsoPPP	2.07	8	1.30	103	Michigan big
PD Line Yards per Carry	2.78	106	0.98	1	Ohio State big
PD Sack Rate	7.5%	65	6.2%	88	Michigan

When Ohio State has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Ohio State Offense		Michigan Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	126.3	3	149.7	2
Standard Downs Success Rate	56.1	5	32.4	1
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.03	105	1.10	28	Michigan big
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.57	4	2.01	1
SD Sack Rate	4.6%	62	8.2%	10	Michigan big

Passing Downs

	Ohio State Offense		Michigan Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	106.8	56	163.2	3	Michigan big
Passing Downs Success Rate	31.2	64	21.8	6	Michigan big
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.83	41	1.90	1	Michigan
PD Line Yards per Carry	4.02	11	2.13	7
PD Sack Rate	7.5%	65	16.5%	1	Michigan big

Individual Passing Stats

Team	Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Michigan	Wilton Speight	6'6, 243	JR	160	257	2156	15	4	62.3%	14	5.2%	7.6
Michigan	John O'Korn	6'4, 215	SR	20	34	173	2	0	58.8%	2	5.6%	4.6
Michigan	Shane Morris	6'3, 213	SR	4	5	45	0	0	80.0%	0	0.0%	9.0
Ohio State	J.T. Barrett	6'2, 222	JR	199	314	2304	24	4	63.4%	16	4.8%	6.7
Ohio State	Joe Burrow	6'3, 218	FR	22	28	226	2	0	78.6%	1	3.4%	7.6
Ohio State

Individual Rushing Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate
Michigan	De'Veon Smith	RB	5'11, 228	SR	144	750	10	5.2	6.0	35.4%
Michigan	Chris Evans	RB	5'11, 200	FR	75	547	3	7.3	7.4	48.0%
Michigan	Ty Isaac	RB	6'3, 230	SR	74	417	5	5.6	4.7	43.2%
Michigan	Karan Higdon	RB	5'10, 189	SO	65	417	6	6.4	6.2	47.7%
Ohio State	Mike Weber	RB	5'10, 212	FR	166	1046	8	6.3	6.0	43.4%
Ohio State	J.T. Barrett	QB	6'2, 222	JR	148	817	8	5.5	3.7	45.9%
Ohio State	Curtis Samuel	HB	5'11, 197	JR	84	650	7	7.7	5.9	61.9%
Ohio State	Demario McCall	RB	5'9, 182	FR	49	270	3	5.5	4.2	40.8%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Individual Receiving Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate
Michigan	Amara Darboh	WR	6'2, 215	SR	77	44	758	6	17.2	9.8	57.1%
Michigan	Jake Butt	TE	6'6, 250	SR	55	39	472	4	12.1	8.6	70.9%
Michigan	Jehu Chesson	WR	6'3, 203	SR	55	29	458	2	15.8	8.3	52.7%
Michigan	Grant Perry	WR	6'0, 196	SO	19	9	134	1	14.9	7.1	47.4%
Michigan	De'Veon Smith	RB	5'11, 228	SR	15	11	38	0	3.5	2.5	73.3%
Michigan	Khalid Hill	FB	6'2, 263	SR	14	13	97	1	7.5	6.9	92.9%
Michigan	Chris Evans	RB	5'11, 200	FR	8	6	87	0	14.5	10.9	75.0%
Ohio State	Curtis Samuel	HB	5'11, 197	JR	76	61	790	7	13.0	10.4	80.3%
Ohio State	Noah Brown	WR	6'2, 218	SO	42	27	345	7	12.8	8.2	64.3%
Ohio State	Marcus Baugh	TE	6'5, 258	JR	39	21	242	2	11.5	6.2	53.8%
Ohio State	Dontre Wilson	WR	5'10, 195	SR	33	26	343	5	13.2	10.4	78.8%
Ohio State	Parris Campbell	WR	6'1, 208	SO	24	13	121	0	9.3	5.0	54.2%
Ohio State	Mike Weber	RB	5'10, 212	FR	23	18	90	0	5.0	3.9	78.3%
Ohio State	K.J. Hill	WR	6'0, 200	FR	21	15	235	1	15.7	11.2	71.4%

Individual Defensive Stats

Team	Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Michigan	Ben Gedeon	LB	6'3, 247	SR	57.5	10.8%	13.0	3.5	0	2	0	0
Michigan	Jabrill Peppers	LB	6'1, 205	JR	54.0	10.1%	15.0	3.5	0	1	1	0
Michigan	Mike McCray	LB	6'4, 248	SR	48.5	9.1%	12.0	3.5	1	4	1	0
Michigan	Dymonte Thomas	S	6'2, 199	SR	46.5	8.7%	0.0	0.0	1	7	0	0
Michigan	Delano Hill	S	6'1, 215	SR	34.0	6.4%	3.5	0.0	3	3	1	0
Michigan	Ryan Glasgow	DT	6'4, 299	SR	26.5	5.0%	8.0	3.0	0	1	1	0
Michigan	Chris Wormley	DE	6'6, 302	SR	25.0	4.7%	7.5	4.5	0	0	0	0
Michigan	Maurice Hurst	DT	6'2, 282	SR	23.5	4.4%	9.5	3.5	0	0	0	0
Michigan	Chase Winovich	DE	6'3, 245	JR	21.5	4.0%	7.5	5.0	0	0	1	0
Michigan	Matthew Godin	DT	6'6, 294	SR	19.5	3.7%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Michigan	Taco Charlton	DE	6'6, 272	SR	19.0	3.6%	8.5	6.5	0	1	0	0
Michigan	Channing Stribling	CB	6'2, 175	SR	18.5	3.5%	1.0	0.0	4	11	0	0
Michigan	Rashan Gary	DE	6'5, 287	FR	16.5	3.1%	5.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Ohio State	Raekwon McMillan	LB	6'2, 243	JR	50.5	9.2%	4.5	1.0	0	4	2	0
Ohio State	Jerome Baker	LB	6'1, 225	SO	49.5	9.0%	7.5	2.5	1	0	0	1
Ohio State	Malik Hooker	S	6'2, 205	SO	47.5	8.7%	4.5	0.5	5	4	0	0
Ohio State	Chris Worley	LB	6'2, 228	JR	39.0	7.1%	4.5	0.0	1	4	1	0
Ohio State	Damon Webb	CB	5'10, 195	JR	37.5	6.9%	2.0	0.0	1	3	0	0
Ohio State	Marshon Lattimore	CB	6'0, 192	SO	27.5	5.0%	0.0	0.0	4	9	0	0
Ohio State	Dre'Mont Jones	DL	6'3, 280	FR	27.0	4.9%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ohio State	Sam Hubbard	DE	6'5, 266	SO	26.0	4.8%	6.5	3.0	0	2	0	0
Ohio State	Tyquan Lewis	DL	6'4, 266	JR	22.0	4.0%	10.0	7.5	0	1	3	0
Ohio State	Jalyn Holmes	DE	6'5, 274	JR	21.5	3.9%	8.0	2.0	0	0	1	1
Ohio State	Nick Bosa	DE	6'4, 265	FR	18.0	3.3%	6.0	4.0	0	0	0	0
Ohio State	Gareon Conley	CB	6'0, 195	JR	17.0	3.1%	0.0	0.0	3	7	0	0
Ohio State	Denzel Ward	CB	5'10, 185	SO	14.5	2.7%	0.0	0.0	0	8	0	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Individual Special Teams Stats

Team	Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Michigan	Kenny Allen	6'4, 222	SR	39	41.8	4	7	13	51.3%
Ohio State	Cameron Johnston	5'11, 198	SR	43	46.3	5	16	15	72.1%

Team	Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%	OOB	Fair Catches	Onside Att	Onside Success
Michigan	Kenny Allen	6'4, 222	SR	73	64.1	41	56.2%	0	0	0	0
Michigan	James Foug	5'11, 175	SO	8	57.5	2	25.0%	0	0	0	0
Ohio State	Tyler Durbin	6'3, 210	SR	88	60.7	35	39.8%	0	4	0	0

Team	Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	FG	Pct
Michigan	Kenny Allen	6'4, 222	SR	49-49	14-18	77.8%
Michigan	Ryan Tice	6'1, 170	SO	10-10	0-1	0.0%
Ohio State	Tyler Durbin	6'3, 210	SR	60-62	16-16	100.0%

Team	Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Michigan	Jabrill Peppers	6'1, 205	JR	9	24.0	0	0	0 (0)
Michigan	Jourdan Lewis	5'11, 186	SR	4	10.5	0	0	0 (0)
Ohio State	Parris Campbell	6'1, 208	SO	18	26.6	0	0	0 (0)
Ohio State	Dontre Wilson	5'10, 195	SR	3	20.7	0	0	0 (0)

Team	Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Michigan	Grant Perry	6'0, 196	SO	0	0.0	1	0	0 (0)
Michigan	Jabrill Peppers	6'1, 205	JR	20	15.3	1	17	1 (0)
Ohio State	Dontre Wilson	5'10, 195	SR	17	6.3	0	15	4 (1)
Ohio State	Curtis Samuel	5'11, 197	JR	4	4.5	0	3	1 (0)

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}