FanPost

Adding Rational Perspective to the 2015-16 Bowl Results

2015-16 College Football Bowl Records

CONFERENCE

AAC

ACC

B10

B12

CUSA

MAC

MWC

PAC

SEC

SUN

IND

TOTAL

American Athletic

0-0

2-1

0-0

0-0

0-2

0-1

0-1

0-0

0-1

0-0

0-0

2-6

Atlantic Coast

1-2

0-0

1-0

1-1

0-0

0-0

0-0

0-1

1-1

0-0

0-0

4-5

Big Ten

0-0

0-1

0-0

0-0

0-0

1-0

0-0

2-1

1-3

0-0

1-0

5-5

Big XII

0-0

1-1

0-0

0-0

0-0

0-0

0-0

2-0

0-3

0-0

0-0

3-4

Conference USA

2-0

0-0

0-0

0-0

0-0

0-1

0-0

0-1

0-0

1-0

0-0

3-2

Mid-American

1-0

0-0

0-1

0-0

1-0

0-0

1-1

0-0

0-0

0-2

0-0

3-4

Mountain West

1-0

0-0

0-0

0-0

0-0

1-1

1-1

0-2

0-0

1-0

0-0

4-4

Pacific-12

0-0

1-0

1-2

0-2

1-0

0-0

2-0

0-0

0-0

0-0

1-0

6-4

Southeastern

1-0

1-1

3-1

3-0

0-0

0-0

0-0

0-0

0-0

0-0

0-0

8-2

Sun Belt

0-0

0-0

0-0

0-0

0-1

2-0

0-1

0-0

0-0

0-0

0-0

2-2

Independents

0-0

0-0

0-1

0-0

0-0

0-0

0-0

0-1

0-0

0-0

0-0

0-2

A quick glance at the table above may cause one to conclude that the SEC far out-performed the other nine conferences during the 2015-2016 college football bowl season. However, although the self-proclaimed "greatest conference in the universe" had a very good bowl record, a closer look reveals what ESPN (owner of the SEC network) will never tell you.

The SEC went 3-1 versus the Big Ten but based on the match-ups were expected to go 2-1-1, so they were only a half game better than expected.

Alabama (7-1 in the SEC) beat Michigan State (7-1 in the Big Ten) = +0.5

Tennessee (5-3 in the SEC) beat Northwestern (6-2 in the Big Ten) = +1

Georgia (5-3 in the SEC) beat Penn State (4-4 in the Big Ten) = 0

Florida (7-1 in the SEC) lost to Michigan (6-2 in the Big Ten) = -1

The SEC went 3-0 versus the Big XII but based on the match-ups were expected to go 2-0-1, so they were only a half game better than expected. Note that teams in the Big XII play nine conference games but Kansas did not win a single game, so wins versus the Jayhawks are ignored.

Mississippi (6-2 in the SEC) beat Oklahoma State (6-2 in the Big XII) = +0.5

Louisiana State (5-3 in the SEC) beat Texas Tech (3-5 in the Big XII) = 0

Arkansas (5-3 in the SEC) beat Kansas State (2-6 in the Big XII) = 0

The SEC went 1-1 versus the ACC as expected.

Mississippi State (4-4 in the SEC) beat North Carolina State (3-5 in the ACC) = 0

Texas A&M (4-4 in the SEC) lost to Louisville (5-3 in the ACC) = 0

In total, the SEC went 7-2 versus Power 5 teams and were expected to finish 6-3. Auburn (2-6 in the SEC) also had an impressive win over Memphis (5-3 in the AAC).

Power 5 teams are generally expected to beat Group of Five schools but Auburn deserves at least a +0.5 for the victory.

Final SEC Bowl Analysis: Expected: 6-3-1, Actual: 8-2, Score: +1.5

Using similar analysis yields the following results:

Conference

Expected Wins

Actual Wins

Difference

American Athletic

2.5

2

-0.5

Atlantic Coast

6

4

-2

Big Ten

4

5

+1

Big XII

2

3

+1

Conference USA

3

3

0

Independents

1

0

-1

Mid-American

3.5

3

-0.5

Mountain West

3.5

4

+0.5

Pacific-12

5

6

+1

Southeastern

6.5

8

+1.5

Sun Belt

3

2

-1

FBS LOGICAL Football Rankings