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S&P+ against the spread
What a weird year.
- Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
- Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
- Week 3: 28-23-1 (55%)
- Week 4: 29-21-2 (57%)
- Week 5: 27-28 (49%)
- Week 6: 27-28 (49%)
- Week 7: 20-36 (36%)
- Week 8: 33-21-1 (61%)
- Week 9: 25-26-1 (49%)
- Week 10: 31-26-2 (54%)
- Week 11: 31-27 (53%)
- Week 12: 36-22 (62%)
- Week 13: 27-33-2 (45%)
- Week 14 (including Army-Navy): 6-10 (38%)
- OVERALL: 365-343-9 (52%)
So if you're keeping score at home (and I'm sure you are)...
- Weeks 1-4: 102-87-3 (54%)
- Weeks 5-7: 74-92 (45%)
- Weeks 8-12: 156-122-4 (56%)
- Weeks 13-14: 33-43-2 (44%)
Between this and the win probabilities, S&P+ certainly met my goals for the year, but this was one hell of a stratified, up-and-down season. There are transition phases throughout the year based on when preseason projections are phased out and how heavily I weight opponent adjustments, and evidently I nailed some of these and whiffed on some of these.
Win probabilities
| Win Prob. Range | Last Week | Overall | Win% |
| 50-59% | 3-2 | 84-75 | 52.8% |
| 60-69% | 2-0 | 117-48 | 70.9% |
| 70-79% | 2-1 | 138-30 | 82.1% |
| 80-89% | 3-1 | 149-26 | 85.1% |
| 90-99% | 1-1 | 156-6 | 96.3% |
(The 90%+ team that lost was Baylor against Texas, by the way. Needless to say, "Baylor will be playing with a WR at QB" would have altered those odds a bit. Alas, we still came up a bit short on the year when it came to massive, 90%+ upsets.)
BOWLS
| Date | Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 19-Dec | 2:00 PM | ESPN | Arizona vs. New Mexico | +8 | Arizona (36.0-27.9) | 8.1 | 68.0% | Arizona |
| 19-Dec | 3:30 PM | ABC | BYU vs. Utah | -2.5 | Utah (27.2-26.4) | 0.8 | 51.8% | BYU |
| 19-Dec | 5:30 PM | ESPN | Appalachian State vs. Ohio | +7.5 | Appalachian State (31.8-25.3) | 6.5 | 64.6% | Ohio |
| 19-Dec | 7:00 PM | CBSSN | Georgia State vs. San Jose State | -2.5 | Georgia State (31.3-29.8) | 1.5 | 53.5% | Georgia State |
| 19-Dec | 9:00 PM | ESPN | Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Tech | -2 | Louisiana Tech (33.2-27.8) | 5.3 | 62.1% | Louisiana Tech |
| 21-Dec | 2:30 PM | ESPN | South Florida vs. Western Kentucky | -2.5 | Western Kentucky (36.1-25.6) | 10.5 | 72.8% | Western Kentucky |
| 22-Dec | 3:30 PM | ESPN | Akron vs. Utah State | -7 | Utah State (28.6-20.6) | 8.0 | 67.9% | Utah State |
| 22-Dec | 7:00 PM | ESPN | Temple vs. Toledo | +2 | Toledo (26.4-23.6) | 2.9 | 56.6% | Toledo |
| 23-Dec | 4:30 PM | ESPN | Boise State vs. Northern Illinois | +8.5 | Boise State (27.8-26.2) | 1.6 | 53.6% | Northern Illinois |
| 23-Dec | 8:00 PM | ESPN | Bowling Green vs. Georgia Southern | +7.5 | Bowling Green (35.8-26.0) | 9.8 | 71.4% | Bowling Green |
| 24-Dec | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Middle Tennessee vs. Western Michigan | -3.5 | Western Michigan (35.9-27.6) | 8.3 | 68.4% | Western Michigan |
| 24-Dec | 8:00 PM | ESPN | Cincinnati vs. San Diego State | -1 | San Diego State (32.6-26.6) | 6.0 | 63.7% | San Diego State |
| 26-Dec | 11:00 AM | ESPN | Marshall vs. Connecticut | +4.5 | Marshall (26.9-19.8) | 7.2 | 66.1% | Marshall |
| 26-Dec | 2:00 PM | CBSSN | Miami-FL vs. Washington State | -2.5 | Miami-FL (32.6-28.8) | 3.9 | 58.9% | Miami-FL |
| 26-Dec | 2:20 PM | ESPN | Southern Miss vs. Washington | -8.5 | Washington (31.8-23.1) | 8.7 | 69.2% | Washington |
| 26-Dec | 3:30 PM | ABC | Duke vs. Indiana | -2 | Indiana (32.5-29.2) | 3.3 | 57.7% | Indiana |
| 26-Dec | 5:45 PM | ESPN | Tulsa vs. Virginia Tech | -13.5 | Virginia Tech (35.4-23.5) | 11.8 | 75.3% | Tulsa |
| 26-Dec | 9:15 PM | ESPN | Nebraska vs. UCLA | -7 | UCLA (33.5-27.9) | 5.5 | 62.5% | Nebraska |
| 28-Dec | 2:30 PM | ESPN | Pittsburgh vs. Navy | -3.5 | Navy (33.7-26.9) | 6.7 | 65.2% | Navy |
| 28-Dec | 5:00 PM | ESPN2 | Central Michigan vs. Minnesota | -6 | Minnesota (31.1-21.6) | 9.5 | 70.9% | Minnesota |
| 29-Dec | 2:00 PM | ESPN | Air Force vs. California | -7 | California (33.3-32.8) | 0.5 | 51.1% | Air Force |
| 29-Dec | 5:30 PM | ESPN | North Carolina vs. Baylor | -2 | Baylor (36.5-31.4) | 5.1 | 61.5% | Baylor |
| 29-Dec | 7:30 PM | ASN | Colorado State vs. Nevada | +3 | Colorado State (33.7-25.6) | 8.1 | 68.0% | Colorado State |
| 29-Dec | 9:00 PM | ESPN | Texas Tech vs. LSU | -7.5 | LSU (41.6-30.6) | 11.1 | 73.9% | LSU |
| 30-Dec | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Auburn vs. Memphis | +2.5 | Memphis (32.7-29.2) | 3.5 | 58.0% | Memphis |
| 30-Dec | 3:30 PM | ESPN | Mississippi State vs. NC State | +5.5 | Mississippi State (31.0-29.1) | 1.9 | 54.4% | NC State |
| 30-Dec | 7:00 PM | ESPN | Louisville vs. Texas A&M | +1.5 | Louisville (27.5-24.5) | 3.1 | 57.0% | Louisville |
| 30-Dec | 10:30 PM | ESPN | Wisconsin vs. USC | -3 | USC (28.1-25.0) | 3.1 | 57.1% | USC |
| 31-Dec | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Florida State vs. Houston | +7.5 | Florida State (36.9-22.2) | 14.7 | 80.1% | Florida State |
| 31-Dec | 4:00 PM | ESPN | Clemson vs. Oklahoma | -4 | Clemson (30.5-28.7) | 1.7 | 54.0% | Clemson |
| 31-Dec | 8:00 PM | ESPN | Alabama vs. Michigan State | +9.5 | Alabama (30.3-19.3) | 10.9 | 73.7% | Alabama |
| 1-Jan | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Northwestern vs. Tennessee | -8 | Tennessee (25.1-20.4) | 4.7 | 60.7% | Northwestern |
| 1-Jan | 1:00 PM | ABC | Florida vs. Michigan | -4.5 | Michigan (25.8-19.7) | 6.2 | 63.9% | Michigan |
| 1-Jan | 1:00 PM | ESPN | Notre Dame vs. Ohio State | -7 | Ohio State (32.4-28.0) | 4.4 | 60.0% | Notre Dame |
| 1-Jan | 5:00 PM | ESPN | Iowa vs. Stanford | -7 | Stanford (33.3-27.2) | 6.1 | 63.8% | Iowa |
| 1-Jan | 8:30 PM | ESPN | Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss | -7.5 | Ole Miss (35.9-27.8) | 8.1 | 68.0% | Ole Miss |
| 2-Jan | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Georgia vs. Penn State | +7 | Penn State (24.8-23.6) | 1.2 | 52.7% | Penn State |
| 2-Jan | 3:20 PM | ESPN | Arkansas vs. Kansas State | +11 | Arkansas (40.4-24.2) | 16.3 | 82.6% | Arkansas |
| 2-Jan | 6:45 PM | ESPN | Oregon vs. TCU | 0 | TCU (36.0-33.7) | 2.3 | 55.3% | TCU |
| 2-Jan | 10:15 PM | ESPN | Arizona State vs. West Virginia | -1 | West Virginia (34.9-24.3) | 10.6 | 72.9% | West Virginia |
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