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2015-16 S&P+ bowl picks

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S&P+ against the spread

What a weird year.

  • Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
  • Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
  • Week 3: 28-23-1 (55%)
  • Week 4: 29-21-2 (57%)
  • Week 5: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 6: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 7: 20-36 (36%)
  • Week 8: 33-21-1 (61%)
  • Week 9: 25-26-1 (49%)
  • Week 10: 31-26-2 (54%)
  • Week 11: 31-27 (53%)
  • Week 12: 36-22 (62%)
  • Week 13: 27-33-2 (45%)
  • Week 14 (including Army-Navy): 6-10 (38%)
  • OVERALL: 365-343-9 (52%)

So if you're keeping score at home (and I'm sure you are)...

  • Weeks 1-4: 102-87-3 (54%)
  • Weeks 5-7: 74-92 (45%)
  • Weeks 8-12: 156-122-4 (56%)
  • Weeks 13-14: 33-43-2 (44%)

Between this and the win probabilities, S&P+ certainly met my goals for the year, but this was one hell of a stratified, up-and-down season. There are transition phases throughout the year based on when preseason projections are phased out and how heavily I weight opponent adjustments, and evidently I nailed some of these and whiffed on some of these.

Win probabilities

Win Prob. Range Last Week Overall Win%
50-59% 3-2 84-75 52.8%
60-69% 2-0 117-48 70.9%
70-79% 2-1 138-30 82.1%
80-89% 3-1 149-26 85.1%
90-99% 1-1 156-6 96.3%

(The 90%+ team that lost was Baylor against Texas, by the way. Needless to say, "Baylor will be playing with a WR at QB" would have altered those odds a bit. Alas, we still came up a bit short on the year when it came to massive, 90%+ upsets.)

BOWLS

Date Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
19-Dec 2:00 PM ESPN Arizona vs. New Mexico +8 Arizona (36.0-27.9) 8.1 68.0% Arizona
19-Dec 3:30 PM ABC BYU vs. Utah -2.5 Utah (27.2-26.4) 0.8 51.8% BYU
19-Dec 5:30 PM ESPN Appalachian State vs. Ohio +7.5 Appalachian State (31.8-25.3) 6.5 64.6% Ohio
19-Dec 7:00 PM CBSSN Georgia State vs. San Jose State -2.5 Georgia State (31.3-29.8) 1.5 53.5% Georgia State
19-Dec 9:00 PM ESPN Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Tech -2 Louisiana Tech (33.2-27.8) 5.3 62.1% Louisiana Tech
21-Dec 2:30 PM ESPN South Florida vs. Western Kentucky -2.5 Western Kentucky (36.1-25.6) 10.5 72.8% Western Kentucky
22-Dec 3:30 PM ESPN Akron vs. Utah State -7 Utah State (28.6-20.6) 8.0 67.9% Utah State
22-Dec 7:00 PM ESPN Temple vs. Toledo +2 Toledo (26.4-23.6) 2.9 56.6% Toledo
23-Dec 4:30 PM ESPN Boise State vs. Northern Illinois +8.5 Boise State (27.8-26.2) 1.6 53.6% Northern Illinois
23-Dec 8:00 PM ESPN Bowling Green vs. Georgia Southern +7.5 Bowling Green (35.8-26.0) 9.8 71.4% Bowling Green
24-Dec 12:00 PM ESPN Middle Tennessee vs. Western Michigan -3.5 Western Michigan (35.9-27.6) 8.3 68.4% Western Michigan
24-Dec 8:00 PM ESPN Cincinnati vs. San Diego State -1 San Diego State (32.6-26.6) 6.0 63.7% San Diego State
26-Dec 11:00 AM ESPN Marshall vs. Connecticut +4.5 Marshall (26.9-19.8) 7.2 66.1% Marshall
26-Dec 2:00 PM CBSSN Miami-FL vs. Washington State -2.5 Miami-FL (32.6-28.8) 3.9 58.9% Miami-FL
26-Dec 2:20 PM ESPN Southern Miss vs. Washington -8.5 Washington (31.8-23.1) 8.7 69.2% Washington
26-Dec 3:30 PM ABC Duke vs. Indiana -2 Indiana (32.5-29.2) 3.3 57.7% Indiana
26-Dec 5:45 PM ESPN Tulsa vs. Virginia Tech -13.5 Virginia Tech (35.4-23.5) 11.8 75.3% Tulsa
26-Dec 9:15 PM ESPN Nebraska vs. UCLA -7 UCLA (33.5-27.9) 5.5 62.5% Nebraska
28-Dec 2:30 PM ESPN Pittsburgh vs. Navy -3.5 Navy (33.7-26.9) 6.7 65.2% Navy
28-Dec 5:00 PM ESPN2 Central Michigan vs. Minnesota -6 Minnesota (31.1-21.6) 9.5 70.9% Minnesota
29-Dec 2:00 PM ESPN Air Force vs. California -7 California (33.3-32.8) 0.5 51.1% Air Force
29-Dec 5:30 PM ESPN North Carolina vs. Baylor -2 Baylor (36.5-31.4) 5.1 61.5% Baylor
29-Dec 7:30 PM ASN Colorado State vs. Nevada +3 Colorado State (33.7-25.6) 8.1 68.0% Colorado State
29-Dec 9:00 PM ESPN Texas Tech vs. LSU -7.5 LSU (41.6-30.6) 11.1 73.9% LSU
30-Dec 12:00 PM ESPN Auburn vs. Memphis +2.5 Memphis (32.7-29.2) 3.5 58.0% Memphis
30-Dec 3:30 PM ESPN Mississippi State vs. NC State +5.5 Mississippi State (31.0-29.1) 1.9 54.4% NC State
30-Dec 7:00 PM ESPN Louisville vs. Texas A&M +1.5 Louisville (27.5-24.5) 3.1 57.0% Louisville
30-Dec 10:30 PM ESPN Wisconsin vs. USC -3 USC (28.1-25.0) 3.1 57.1% USC
31-Dec 12:00 PM ESPN Florida State vs. Houston +7.5 Florida State (36.9-22.2) 14.7 80.1% Florida State
31-Dec 4:00 PM ESPN Clemson vs. Oklahoma -4 Clemson (30.5-28.7) 1.7 54.0% Clemson
31-Dec 8:00 PM ESPN Alabama vs. Michigan State +9.5 Alabama (30.3-19.3) 10.9 73.7% Alabama
1-Jan 12:00 PM ESPN2 Northwestern vs. Tennessee -8 Tennessee (25.1-20.4) 4.7 60.7% Northwestern
1-Jan 1:00 PM ABC Florida vs. Michigan -4.5 Michigan (25.8-19.7) 6.2 63.9% Michigan
1-Jan 1:00 PM ESPN Notre Dame vs. Ohio State -7 Ohio State (32.4-28.0) 4.4 60.0% Notre Dame
1-Jan 5:00 PM ESPN Iowa vs. Stanford -7 Stanford (33.3-27.2) 6.1 63.8% Iowa
1-Jan 8:30 PM ESPN Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss -7.5 Ole Miss (35.9-27.8) 8.1 68.0% Ole Miss
2-Jan 12:00 PM ESPN Georgia vs. Penn State +7 Penn State (24.8-23.6) 1.2 52.7% Penn State
2-Jan 3:20 PM ESPN Arkansas vs. Kansas State +11 Arkansas (40.4-24.2) 16.3 82.6% Arkansas
2-Jan 6:45 PM ESPN Oregon vs. TCU 0 TCU (36.0-33.7) 2.3 55.3% TCU
2-Jan 10:15 PM ESPN Arizona State vs. West Virginia -1 West Virginia (34.9-24.3) 10.6 72.9% West Virginia