Clemson 45, UNC 37: Pass defense and QB draws sent the Tigers to the CFP

Clemson 45, North Carolina 37

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Usually when there's this big a difference between the projected and actual scoring margins, it means that either something funky happened on special teams (because this box score doesn't really account for that) or there was a large disparity in terms of finishing drives. That wasn't significantly the case here, but North Carolina did manage a healthy field position advantage, in part because of more effective punting (net punting average: UNC 41, Clemson 34).

The Clemson defense was put into tough positions, with UNC starting drives, on average, within a first down of field. But the Heels threw an interception at the Clemson 16 and lost a fumble at the 46. That flipped the advantage to the Tigers.

Clemson's run effectiveness was encouraging -- returns had diminished of late -- and the Tigers' pass defense was magnificent, holding UNC to a 27 percent success rate. But field position and some big plays kept the Heels close enough that the horrific offsides call on the late UNC onside kick might have actually made a difference.

Formations/Basics

The base formations worked better for Clemson than UNC, and for one reason or another, the Tigers held a significant advantage when the ball was lined up in the middle of the field. I'll let someone else figure that one out.

Passing

North Carolina never sacked Deshaun Watson, but the biltz was still effective -- Watson averaged 7.9 yards per attempt when UNC rushed four or fewer defenders but only 4.1 when they rushed more. Music to Mike Stoops' ears.

One other note: Deshaun Watson is an efficiency machine, but he was only 4-for-14 on passes thrown 10 or more yards downfield. Marquise Williams was only 5-for-16, so this didn't hurt that much, but big plays are still awfully hard to come by for the Tigers.

Rushing

Neither team saw much success between the tackles, but in part because of Watson, Clemson held the edge on the edges.

QB Activity

UNC defended the zone read well (as did Clemson), but the straight-up QB draw, often with the RB as a lead blocker, saw effectiveness, especially on a 33-yarder that set up Clemson's second touchdown.