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Week 13 S&P+ picks

Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports

S&P+ against the spread

  • Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
  • Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
  • Week 3: 28-23-1 (55%)
  • Week 4: 29-21-2 (57%)
  • Week 5: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 6: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 7: 20-36 (36%)
  • Week 8: 33-21-1 (61%)
  • Week 9: 25-26-1 (49%)
  • Week 10: 31-26-2 (54%)
  • Week 11: 31-27 (53%)
  • Week 12: 36-22 (62%)
  • OVERALL: 332-301-7 (52%)

Last 5 weeks: 156-122-4 (56%). On a damn roll. The transition from projections data to in-season data was awkward, but S&P+ has been completely dialed in of late.

Win probabilities

Win Prob. Range Last Week Overall Win%
50-59% 11-4 73-63 53.7%
60-69% 11-3 102-42 70.8%
70-79% 8-4 129-28 82.2%
80-89% 10-1 134-24 84.8%
90-99% 8-1 151-5 96.8%

Another week, another upset in the 90%+ category; this time, it was The Citadel over South Carolina.

This is pretty much exactly what I hoped to see -- S&P+ doing well against the spread, and win probabilities slowly inching into range. The 60-69% and 70-79% ranges are still a hair better than they should be, but everything else is virtually in-line. Love it.

Tuesday

A quick note: before I get to puffing my chest out too much about the success of the numbers, here's a reminder that I'm a dumbass:

I have indeed updated the main ratings pages at Football Outsiders, but I haven't been able to update everyone's statistical profiles. I changed Washington's and Oregon State's because there was obviously a large impact there. But everyone else's remains the same. That means your team's profile might be slightly different in terms of both S&P+ rankings and projections compared to what you see below. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
8:00 PM ESPN3 Bowling Green at Ball State +23.5 Bowling Green (43.1-23.6) 19.5 87.0% Ball State
8:00 PM ESPN2 Ohio at Northern Illinois -11 Northern Illinois (31.4-23.9) 7.5 66.8% Ohio

Thursday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
7:30 PM ESPN South Florida at Central Florida South Florida (39.2-13.2) 26.0 93.4%
7:30 PM FS1 Texas Tech at Texas -1.5 Texas Tech (37.5-32.0) 5.4 62.3% Texas Tech

Friday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
12:00 PM ESPN3 Kent State at Akron -10.5 Akron (27.5-12.2) 15.3 81.2% Akron
12:00 PM FS1 Marshall at Western Kentucky -10.5 Western Kentucky (35.7-24.5) 11.1 74.0% Western Kentucky
12:00 PM ESPN2 Miami-FL at Pittsburgh -6 Pittsburgh (33.2-26.9) 6.3 64.1% Pittsburgh
12:00 PM ABC Navy at Houston -1 Navy (33.4-26.8) 6.6 64.9% Navy
12:00 PM CBSSN Western Michigan at Toledo -8 Toledo (35.2-24.2) 11.0 73.8% Toledo
1:00 PM ESPN3 Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan -24 Central Michigan (41.7-19.0) 22.7 90.5% Eastern Michigan
2:00 PM ESPN3 Troy at Georgia State -1 Georgia State (30.0-29.2) 0.9 52.0% Troy
2:30 PM CBS Missouri at Arkansas -14 Arkansas (35.9-19.0) 16.9 83.5% Arkansas
3:30 PM CBSSN Boise State at San Jose State +7.5 Boise State (31.4-25.4) 6.0 63.6% San Jose State
3:30 PM ABC Iowa at Nebraska +1.5 Iowa (29.0-28.3) 0.7 51.6% Nebraska
3:30 PM FS1 Oregon State at Oregon -34.5 Oregon (45.9-18.6) 27.3 94.2% Oregon State
3:30 PM Fox Washington State at Washington Washington (33.7-22.5) 11.2 74.1%
4:30 PM ESPNU Massachusetts at Buffalo -6.5 Buffalo (31.7-24.9) 6.8 65.4% Buffalo
7:30 PM ESPN Baylor at TCU +1.5 Baylor (38.2-34.8) 3.4 57.7% Baylor
8:00 PM ESPNU Tulsa at Tulane +6 Tulsa (33.1-25.2) 7.9 67.7% Tulsa

Saturday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
12:00 PM CBSSN Cincinnati at East Carolina -1 East Carolina (33.0-29.9) 3.1 57.2% East Carolina
12:00 PM ESPN Clemson at South Carolina +17 Clemson (41.8-15.4) 26.4 93.6% Clemson
12:00 PM ASN Florida Atlantic at Old Dominion +4 Florida Atlantic (29.7-25.2) 4.6 60.4% Florida Atlantic
12:00 PM ESPN2 Georgia at Georgia Tech +5 Georgia (29.5-23.2) 6.3 64.2% Georgia
12:00 PM BTN Indiana at Purdue +7 Indiana (33.1-29.9) 3.2 57.4% Purdue
12:00 PM FS1 Iowa State at West Virginia -14 West Virginia (36.1-21.6) 14.5 79.9% West Virginia
12:00 PM SECN Louisville at Kentucky +4 Louisville (31.3-21.3) 10.0 71.8% Louisville
12:00 PM BTN Maryland at Rutgers +1 Maryland (31.3-24.1) 7.2 66.1% Maryland
12:00 PM ABC Ohio State at Michigan 0 Michigan (26.6-22.2) 4.4 59.9% Michigan
12:00 PM ESPNN SMU at Memphis -21.5 Memphis (44.7-24.3) 20.4 88.1% SMU
12:00 PM FSN Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech -6 Louisiana Tech (34.2-27.5) 6.7 65.1% Louisiana Tech
12:00 PM ESPNU Virginia Tech at Virginia +3.5 Virginia Tech (29.8-26.4) 3.4 57.7% Virginia
12:30 PM ESPN3 Boston College at Syracuse +3 Boston College (22.2-21.7) 0.5 51.2% Syracuse
12:30 PM ESPN3 Duke at Wake Forest +4 Duke (27.9-21.2) 6.7 65.0% Duke
2:00 PM ESPN3 South Alabama at Georgia Southern -20.5 Georgia Southern (39.7-18.3) 21.4 89.2% Georgia Southern
2:00 PM ESPN3 UL-Lafayette at Appalachian State -23.5 Appalachian State (40.3-19.6) 20.6 88.3% UL-Lafayette
2:00 PM RSRM UNLV at Wyoming UNLV (30.5-29.8) 0.7 51.7%
2:30 PM Pac-12 Colorado at Utah -16.5 Utah (37.7-16.9) 20.9 88.6% Utah
2:30 PM FCS Middle Tennessee at UTSA +12 Middle Tennessee (31.8-25.7) 6.1 63.7% UTSA
3:30 PM CBS Alabama at Auburn +14 Alabama (34.0-16.6) 17.5 84.3% Alabama
3:30 PM CBSSN BYU at Utah State +3 Utah State (27.0-26.9) 0.2 50.4% Utah State
3:30 PM ASN Charlotte at Rice -11 Rice (31.1-24.8) 6.3 64.2% Charlotte
3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 North Carolina at NC State +6 NC State (32.2-28.5) 3.7 58.4% NC State
3:30 PM ESPNU Northwestern vs. Illinois +3.5 Northwestern (21.0-19.3) 1.7 53.9% Illinois
3:30 PM ESPN Penn State at Michigan State Michigan State (29.0-22.4) 6.5 64.7%
3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 UCLA at USC -3 USC (33.2-30.6) 2.6 56.0% UCLA
3:30 PM FSN UTEP at North Texas -2.5 North Texas (30.4-29.0) 1.3 53.1% UTEP
3:30 PM BTN Wisconsin at Minnesota +2.5 Minnesota (23.7-22.4) 1.3 53.0% Minnesota
4:00 PM ESPN3 Arkansas State at New Mexico State +17 Arkansas State (36.3-25.3) 11.1 73.9% New Mexico State
4:00 PM FS1 Kansas State at Kansas +20 Kansas State (37.5-21.2) 16.3 82.7% Kansas
4:00 PM SECN Vanderbilt at Tennessee -17.5 Tennessee (30.8-12.8) 18.0 85.1% Tennessee
5:00 PM ESPN3 Texas State at Idaho -2.5 Idaho (35.3-33.4) 1.9 54.3% Texas State
7:00 PM ESPNU Connecticut at Temple -12 Temple (30.3-16.4) 13.9 79.0% Temple
7:15 PM ESPN2 Ole Miss at Mississippi State +1 Ole Miss (31.4-29.5) 1.9 54.4% Ole Miss
7:30 PM ESPN Florida State at Florida +2 Florida (26.4-25.0) 1.3 53.1% Florida
7:30 PM Fox Notre Dame at Stanford -3.5 Stanford (32.4-32.4) 0.0 50.1% Notre Dame
7:30 PM SECN Texas A&M at LSU -5.5 LSU (35.2-24.6) 10.5 72.9% LSU
8:00 PM ABC Oklahoma at Oklahoma State +7 Oklahoma (34.0-28.5) 5.5 62.5% Oklahoma State
9:00 PM CBSSN Colorado State at Fresno State +9.5 Colorado State (33.4-23.3) 10.1 72.0% Colorado State
10:00 PM FS1 Arizona State at California -4 California (35.7-29.2) 6.5 64.7% California
10:15 PM ESPNU Air Force at New Mexico +9.5 Air Force (36.3-21.7) 14.6 80.0% Air Force
10:45 PM ESPN2 Nevada at San Diego State -17 San Diego State (36.2-17.0) 19.2 86.6% San Diego State
11:00 PM MWC Video UL-Monroe at Hawaii Hawaii (27.7-22.2) 5.5 62.6%