:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/47738929/usa-today-8233811.0.jpg)
S&P+ against the spread
- Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
- Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
- Week 3: 28-23-1 (55%)
- Week 4: 29-21-2 (57%)
- Week 5: 27-28 (49%)
- Week 6: 27-28 (49%)
- Week 7: 20-36 (36%)
- Week 8: 33-21-1 (61%)
- Week 9: 25-26-1 (49%)
- Week 10: 31-26-2 (54%)
- Week 11: 31-27 (53%)
- Week 12: 36-22 (62%)
- OVERALL: 332-301-7 (52%)
Last 5 weeks: 156-122-4 (56%). On a damn roll. The transition from projections data to in-season data was awkward, but S&P+ has been completely dialed in of late.
Win probabilities
| Win Prob. Range | Last Week | Overall | Win% |
| 50-59% | 11-4 | 73-63 | 53.7% |
| 60-69% | 11-3 | 102-42 | 70.8% |
| 70-79% | 8-4 | 129-28 | 82.2% |
| 80-89% | 10-1 | 134-24 | 84.8% |
| 90-99% | 8-1 | 151-5 | 96.8% |
Another week, another upset in the 90%+ category; this time, it was The Citadel over South Carolina.
This is pretty much exactly what I hoped to see -- S&P+ doing well against the spread, and win probabilities slowly inching into range. The 60-69% and 70-79% ranges are still a hair better than they should be, but everything else is virtually in-line. Love it.
Tuesday
A quick note: before I get to puffing my chest out too much about the success of the numbers, here's a reminder that I'm a dumbass:
Ha, so … the Washington-Oregon State game created a glitch in the matrix.
— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) November 24, 2015
Oregon State had just 1 successful play against UW before garbage time adjustments kicked in … and it went for 76 yards.
— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) November 24, 2015
So what was basically a "76 yards per successful play" average destroyed the game ratings.
— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) November 24, 2015
I never worried about putting an IsoPPP cap in place because that didn’t happen in anything that I sampled. Didn’t cross my mind.
— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) November 24, 2015
Long story short: new S&P+ ratings coming soon. Only UW and OSU were directly affected, but that means other teams will shift slightly.
— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) November 24, 2015
Alright, F/+, S&P+, Off. S&P+, and Def. S&P+ pages have all been updated to account for the UW-OSU glitch.
— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) November 24, 2015
I have indeed updated the main ratings pages at Football Outsiders, but I haven't been able to update everyone's statistical profiles. I changed Washington's and Oregon State's because there was obviously a large impact there. But everyone else's remains the same. That means your team's profile might be slightly different in terms of both S&P+ rankings and projections compared to what you see below. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 8:00 PM | ESPN3 | Bowling Green at Ball State | +23.5 | Bowling Green (43.1-23.6) | 19.5 | 87.0% | Ball State |
| 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | Ohio at Northern Illinois | -11 | Northern Illinois (31.4-23.9) | 7.5 | 66.8% | Ohio |
Thursday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 7:30 PM | ESPN | South Florida at Central Florida | South Florida (39.2-13.2) | 26.0 | 93.4% | ||
| 7:30 PM | FS1 | Texas Tech at Texas | -1.5 | Texas Tech (37.5-32.0) | 5.4 | 62.3% | Texas Tech |
Friday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Kent State at Akron | -10.5 | Akron (27.5-12.2) | 15.3 | 81.2% | Akron |
| 12:00 PM | FS1 | Marshall at Western Kentucky | -10.5 | Western Kentucky (35.7-24.5) | 11.1 | 74.0% | Western Kentucky |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Miami-FL at Pittsburgh | -6 | Pittsburgh (33.2-26.9) | 6.3 | 64.1% | Pittsburgh |
| 12:00 PM | ABC | Navy at Houston | -1 | Navy (33.4-26.8) | 6.6 | 64.9% | Navy |
| 12:00 PM | CBSSN | Western Michigan at Toledo | -8 | Toledo (35.2-24.2) | 11.0 | 73.8% | Toledo |
| 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan | -24 | Central Michigan (41.7-19.0) | 22.7 | 90.5% | Eastern Michigan |
| 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Troy at Georgia State | -1 | Georgia State (30.0-29.2) | 0.9 | 52.0% | Troy |
| 2:30 PM | CBS | Missouri at Arkansas | -14 | Arkansas (35.9-19.0) | 16.9 | 83.5% | Arkansas |
| 3:30 PM | CBSSN | Boise State at San Jose State | +7.5 | Boise State (31.4-25.4) | 6.0 | 63.6% | San Jose State |
| 3:30 PM | ABC | Iowa at Nebraska | +1.5 | Iowa (29.0-28.3) | 0.7 | 51.6% | Nebraska |
| 3:30 PM | FS1 | Oregon State at Oregon | -34.5 | Oregon (45.9-18.6) | 27.3 | 94.2% | Oregon State |
| 3:30 PM | Fox | Washington State at Washington | Washington (33.7-22.5) | 11.2 | 74.1% | ||
| 4:30 PM | ESPNU | Massachusetts at Buffalo | -6.5 | Buffalo (31.7-24.9) | 6.8 | 65.4% | Buffalo |
| 7:30 PM | ESPN | Baylor at TCU | +1.5 | Baylor (38.2-34.8) | 3.4 | 57.7% | Baylor |
| 8:00 PM | ESPNU | Tulsa at Tulane | +6 | Tulsa (33.1-25.2) | 7.9 | 67.7% | Tulsa |
Saturday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 12:00 PM | CBSSN | Cincinnati at East Carolina | -1 | East Carolina (33.0-29.9) | 3.1 | 57.2% | East Carolina |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN | Clemson at South Carolina | +17 | Clemson (41.8-15.4) | 26.4 | 93.6% | Clemson |
| 12:00 PM | ASN | Florida Atlantic at Old Dominion | +4 | Florida Atlantic (29.7-25.2) | 4.6 | 60.4% | Florida Atlantic |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Georgia at Georgia Tech | +5 | Georgia (29.5-23.2) | 6.3 | 64.2% | Georgia |
| 12:00 PM | BTN | Indiana at Purdue | +7 | Indiana (33.1-29.9) | 3.2 | 57.4% | Purdue |
| 12:00 PM | FS1 | Iowa State at West Virginia | -14 | West Virginia (36.1-21.6) | 14.5 | 79.9% | West Virginia |
| 12:00 PM | SECN | Louisville at Kentucky | +4 | Louisville (31.3-21.3) | 10.0 | 71.8% | Louisville |
| 12:00 PM | BTN | Maryland at Rutgers | +1 | Maryland (31.3-24.1) | 7.2 | 66.1% | Maryland |
| 12:00 PM | ABC | Ohio State at Michigan | 0 | Michigan (26.6-22.2) | 4.4 | 59.9% | Michigan |
| 12:00 PM | ESPNN | SMU at Memphis | -21.5 | Memphis (44.7-24.3) | 20.4 | 88.1% | SMU |
| 12:00 PM | FSN | Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech | -6 | Louisiana Tech (34.2-27.5) | 6.7 | 65.1% | Louisiana Tech |
| 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Virginia Tech at Virginia | +3.5 | Virginia Tech (29.8-26.4) | 3.4 | 57.7% | Virginia |
| 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Boston College at Syracuse | +3 | Boston College (22.2-21.7) | 0.5 | 51.2% | Syracuse |
| 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Duke at Wake Forest | +4 | Duke (27.9-21.2) | 6.7 | 65.0% | Duke |
| 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | South Alabama at Georgia Southern | -20.5 | Georgia Southern (39.7-18.3) | 21.4 | 89.2% | Georgia Southern |
| 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | UL-Lafayette at Appalachian State | -23.5 | Appalachian State (40.3-19.6) | 20.6 | 88.3% | UL-Lafayette |
| 2:00 PM | RSRM | UNLV at Wyoming | UNLV (30.5-29.8) | 0.7 | 51.7% | ||
| 2:30 PM | Pac-12 | Colorado at Utah | -16.5 | Utah (37.7-16.9) | 20.9 | 88.6% | Utah |
| 2:30 PM | FCS | Middle Tennessee at UTSA | +12 | Middle Tennessee (31.8-25.7) | 6.1 | 63.7% | UTSA |
| 3:30 PM | CBS | Alabama at Auburn | +14 | Alabama (34.0-16.6) | 17.5 | 84.3% | Alabama |
| 3:30 PM | CBSSN | BYU at Utah State | +3 | Utah State (27.0-26.9) | 0.2 | 50.4% | Utah State |
| 3:30 PM | ASN | Charlotte at Rice | -11 | Rice (31.1-24.8) | 6.3 | 64.2% | Charlotte |
| 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | North Carolina at NC State | +6 | NC State (32.2-28.5) | 3.7 | 58.4% | NC State |
| 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Northwestern vs. Illinois | +3.5 | Northwestern (21.0-19.3) | 1.7 | 53.9% | Illinois |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN | Penn State at Michigan State | Michigan State (29.0-22.4) | 6.5 | 64.7% | ||
| 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | UCLA at USC | -3 | USC (33.2-30.6) | 2.6 | 56.0% | UCLA |
| 3:30 PM | FSN | UTEP at North Texas | -2.5 | North Texas (30.4-29.0) | 1.3 | 53.1% | UTEP |
| 3:30 PM | BTN | Wisconsin at Minnesota | +2.5 | Minnesota (23.7-22.4) | 1.3 | 53.0% | Minnesota |
| 4:00 PM | ESPN3 | Arkansas State at New Mexico State | +17 | Arkansas State (36.3-25.3) | 11.1 | 73.9% | New Mexico State |
| 4:00 PM | FS1 | Kansas State at Kansas | +20 | Kansas State (37.5-21.2) | 16.3 | 82.7% | Kansas |
| 4:00 PM | SECN | Vanderbilt at Tennessee | -17.5 | Tennessee (30.8-12.8) | 18.0 | 85.1% | Tennessee |
| 5:00 PM | ESPN3 | Texas State at Idaho | -2.5 | Idaho (35.3-33.4) | 1.9 | 54.3% | Texas State |
| 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Connecticut at Temple | -12 | Temple (30.3-16.4) | 13.9 | 79.0% | Temple |
| 7:15 PM | ESPN2 | Ole Miss at Mississippi State | +1 | Ole Miss (31.4-29.5) | 1.9 | 54.4% | Ole Miss |
| 7:30 PM | ESPN | Florida State at Florida | +2 | Florida (26.4-25.0) | 1.3 | 53.1% | Florida |
| 7:30 PM | Fox | Notre Dame at Stanford | -3.5 | Stanford (32.4-32.4) | 0.0 | 50.1% | Notre Dame |
| 7:30 PM | SECN | Texas A&M at LSU | -5.5 | LSU (35.2-24.6) | 10.5 | 72.9% | LSU |
| 8:00 PM | ABC | Oklahoma at Oklahoma State | +7 | Oklahoma (34.0-28.5) | 5.5 | 62.5% | Oklahoma State |
| 9:00 PM | CBSSN | Colorado State at Fresno State | +9.5 | Colorado State (33.4-23.3) | 10.1 | 72.0% | Colorado State |
| 10:00 PM | FS1 | Arizona State at California | -4 | California (35.7-29.2) | 6.5 | 64.7% | California |
| 10:15 PM | ESPNU | Air Force at New Mexico | +9.5 | Air Force (36.3-21.7) | 14.6 | 80.0% | Air Force |
| 10:45 PM | ESPN2 | Nevada at San Diego State | -17 | San Diego State (36.2-17.0) | 19.2 | 86.6% | San Diego State |
| 11:00 PM | MWC Video | UL-Monroe at Hawaii | Hawaii (27.7-22.2) | 5.5 | 62.6% |