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Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

S&P+ against the spread

  • Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
  • Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
  • Week 3: 28-23-1 (55%)
  • Week 4: 29-21-2 (57%)
  • Week 5: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 6: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 7: 20-36 (36%)
  • Week 8: 33-21-1 (61%)
  • Week 9: 25-26-1 (49%)
  • Week 10: 31-26-2 (54%)
  • Week 11: 31-27 (53%)
  • OVERALL: 296-279-7 (51%)

The last month: 120-100-4 (54%). I'll take it.

Win probabilities

Win Prob. Range Last Week Overall Win%
50-59% 7-7 62-59 51.2%
60-69% 14-2 91-39 70.0%
70-79% 12-4 121-24 83.4%
80-89% 10-1 124-23 84.4%
90-99% 10-1 143-4 97.3%

We had our fourth huge upset of the season! Boise State had a 92.6% chance of beating New Mexico and failed. We were all watching TCU flirt with the idea of losing to Kansas, and then that one slipped under the radar late in the day.

Tuesday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
6:00 PM ESPN2 Toledo at Bowling Green -8 Bowling Green (33.6-27.9) 5.7 62.9% Toledo
7:00 PM ESPNU Ball State at Ohio -9 Ohio (37.6-20.9) 16.7 83.2% Ohio

Wednesday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
8:00 PM ESPNU Central Michigan at Kent State +9.5 Central Michigan (27.0-14.6) 12.4 76.2% Central Michigan
8:00 PM ESPN2 Western Michigan at Northern Illinois -3 Northern Illinois (32.1-28.2) 4.0 59.0% Northern Illinois

Thursday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
7:30 PM ESPN East Carolina at Central Florida +14.5 East Carolina (34.6-18.1) 16.5 82.9% East Carolina
9:30 PM ESPNU UL-Monroe at Texas State -6.5 Texas State (34.8-26.7) 8.1 67.9% Texas State

A 6-0 start? Okay, yes, please!

Friday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
8:00 PM CBSSN Cincinnati at South Florida +2.5 South Florida (31.7-29.0) 2.7 56.3% South Florida
9:30 PM ESPN2 Air Force at Boise State -12 Boise State (29.4-26.8) 2.5 55.8% Air Force

Saturday

Quite a few games with no lines yet for injury reasons -- Arizona-ASU, Houston-UConn, TCU-Oklahoma. Will add them if one pops up (and I don't completely forget).

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
12:00 PM SECN The Citadel at South Carolina South Carolina (42.8-17.0) 25.7 93.1%
12:00 PM SECN Florida Atlantic at Florida -31 Florida (37.8-13.4) 24.4 92.1% Florida Atlantic
12:00 PM ESPNN Illinois at Minnesota -4.5 Minnesota (25.7-21.4) 4.3 59.8% Illinois
12:00 PM BTN Indiana at Maryland -2.5 Maryland (30.1-29.3) 0.8 51.9% Indiana
12:00 PM FS1 Iowa State at Kansas State -6 Kansas State (29.4-29.0) 0.4 51.0% Iowa State
12:00 PM ESPNU Memphis at Temple +1.5 Memphis (30.3-30.2) 0.2 50.4% Temple
12:00 PM ABC Michigan at Penn State +3.5 Michigan (26.7-19.6) 7.1 65.9% Michigan
12:00 PM ESPN North Carolina at Virginia Tech +6.5 North Carolina (29.4-27.8) 1.6 53.7% Virginia Tech
12:00 PM ASN North Texas at Middle Tennessee -24 Middle Tennessee (42.6-16.1) 26.5 93.7% Middle Tennessee
12:00 PM ESPN2 Purdue at Iowa -22 Iowa (35.8-17.6) 18.2 85.3% Purdue
12:00 PM CBSSN Rutgers at Army +4.5 Rutgers (30.4-28.6) 1.8 54.1% Army
12:00 PM FSN affiliates West Virginia at Kansas +28 West Virginia (44.8-15.4) 29.4 95.5% West Virginia
12:30 PM ESPN3 Georgia Tech at Miami-FL +2 Miami-FL (32.5-26.5) 6.0 63.6% Miami-FL
12:30 PM ESPN3 Syracuse at NC State -17 NC State (37.4-19.4) 18.0 85.1% NC State
1:00 PM ESPN3 Miami-OH at Massachusetts -10 Massachusetts (33.5-20.2) 13.3 77.9% Massachusetts
2:00 PM ESPN3 South Alabama at Georgia State -3 Georgia State (33.9-28.5) 5.4 62.2% Georgia State
2:30 PM FCS Western Kentucky at Florida International +16.5 Western Kentucky (41.1-23.3) 17.8 84.9% Western Kentucky
3:00 PM ESPN3 Fresno State at BYU -26 BYU (39.4-16.5) 22.9 90.7% Fresno State
3:00 PM ESPN3 Chattanooga at Florida State Florida State (47.0-11.9) 35.1 97.9%
3:30 PM FS1 Arizona at Arizona State ? Arizona State (35.6-29.1) 6.5 64.6% ?
3:30 PM CBSSN Buffalo at Akron -4 Akron (28.2-23.7) 4.5 60.3% Akron
3:30 PM Fox UCLA at Utah -2 Utah (30.1-28.6) 1.5 53.4% UCLA
3:30 PM ESPN3 Duke at Virginia -2.5 Duke (30.8-23.8) 6.9 65.6% Duke
3:30 PM ESPNU Houston at Connecticut ? Houston (32.1-21.6) 10.5 72.8% ?
3:30 PM CBS LSU at Ole Miss -4.5 Ole Miss (33.6-27.8) 5.9 63.3% Ole Miss
3:30 PM FSN Louisiana Tech at UTEP +24.5 Louisiana Tech (45.2-17.7) 27.4 94.4% Louisiana Tech
3:30 PM ABC Michigan State at Ohio State -13 Ohio State (35.2-20.8) 14.4 79.7% Ohio State
3:30 PM ESPN3 Nevada at Utah State -15 Utah State (37.9-17.9) 20.1 87.7% Utah State
3:30 PM BTN Northwestern at Wisconsin -10 Wisconsin (26.1-15.1) 11.0 73.8% Wisconsin
3:30 PM ASN Old Dominion at Southern Miss -21 Southern Miss (39.3-18.1) 21.3 89.1% Southern Miss
3:30 PM ESPN USC at Oregon -4 USC (35.8-31.1) 4.7 60.7% USC
3:30 PM ESPN2 Wake Forest at Clemson -29 Clemson (44.4-7.9) 36.5 98.3% Clemson
3:45 PM ESPNN Louisville at Pittsburgh -2 Pittsburgh (27.6-26.9) 0.7 51.7% Louisville
4:00 PM SECN Charleston Southern at Alabama Alabama (52.9--0.7) 53.5 99.9%
4:00 PM SECN Idaho at Auburn -34 Auburn (40.7-22.2) 18.5 85.8% Idaho
5:00 PM ESPN3 New Mexico State at UL-Lafayette -17 UL-Lafayette (37.7-27.2) 10.5 72.8% New Mexico State
5:30 PM RSRM Colorado State at New Mexico +2 Colorado State (33.1-24.8) 8.3 68.3% Colorado State
6:00 PM Pac-12 Washington at Oregon State +15 Washington (36.5-16.4) 20.1 87.7% Washington
7:00 PM SEPNU Georgia Southern at Georgia -13.5 Georgia (28.7-24.7) 4.1 59.3% Georgia Southern
7:00 PM ESPN Mississippi State at Arkansas -3.5 Arkansas (34.8-31.1) 3.8 58.6% Arkansas
7:00 PM ASN Rice at UTSA -3 UTSA (34.0-26.1) 7.8 67.5% UTSA
7:00 PM CBSSN Navy at Tulsa +12 Navy (39.2-24.2) 14.9 80.6% Navy
7:15 PM ESPN2 Tennessee at Missouri +8.5 Tennessee (27.5-17.0) 10.5 72.7% Tennessee
7:30 PM Fox Baylor at Oklahoma State 0 Baylor (36.2-33.9) 2.4 55.4% Baylor
7:30 PM SECN Charlotte at Kentucky -24.5 Kentucky (31.8-17.7) 14.1 79.3% Charlotte
7:30 PM SECN Texas A&M at Vanderbilt +7 Texas A&M (24.3-22.8) 1.4 53.3% Vanderbilt
7:30 PM NBCSN Boston College vs. Notre Dame -16.5 Notre Dame (29.8-15.9) 13.9 78.9% Boston College
8:00 PM ABC TCU at Oklahoma ? Oklahoma (39.8-25.8) 14.0 79.0% ?
8:00 PM ESPNN Tulane at SMU -3 SMU (31.7-26.3) 5.4 62.2% SMU
10:30 PM ESPN California at Stanford -11 Stanford (37.9-27.8) 10.0 71.9% California
10:30 PM CBSSN San Diego State at UNLV +16 San Diego State (32.8-20.8) 12.0 75.5% UNLV
10:45 PM ESPN2 Colorado at Washington State -15 Washington State (36.6-25.1) 11.5 74.7% Colorado
11:00 PM MWC Video San Jose State at Hawaii +10 San Jose State (29.3-23.9) 5.4 62.3% Hawaii