:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/47695809/usa-today-8146766.0.jpg)
S&P+ against the spread
- Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
- Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
- Week 3: 28-23-1 (55%)
- Week 4: 29-21-2 (57%)
- Week 5: 27-28 (49%)
- Week 6: 27-28 (49%)
- Week 7: 20-36 (36%)
- Week 8: 33-21-1 (61%)
- Week 9: 25-26-1 (49%)
- Week 10: 31-26-2 (54%)
- Week 11: 31-27 (53%)
- OVERALL: 296-279-7 (51%)
The last month: 120-100-4 (54%). I'll take it.
Win probabilities
| Win Prob. Range | Last Week | Overall | Win% |
| 50-59% | 7-7 | 62-59 | 51.2% |
| 60-69% | 14-2 | 91-39 | 70.0% |
| 70-79% | 12-4 | 121-24 | 83.4% |
| 80-89% | 10-1 | 124-23 | 84.4% |
| 90-99% | 10-1 | 143-4 | 97.3% |
We had our fourth huge upset of the season! Boise State had a 92.6% chance of beating New Mexico and failed. We were all watching TCU flirt with the idea of losing to Kansas, and then that one slipped under the radar late in the day.
Tuesday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 6:00 PM | ESPN2 | Toledo at Bowling Green | -8 | Bowling Green (33.6-27.9) | 5.7 | 62.9% | Toledo |
| 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Ball State at Ohio | -9 | Ohio (37.6-20.9) | 16.7 | 83.2% | Ohio |
Wednesday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 8:00 PM | ESPNU | Central Michigan at Kent State | +9.5 | Central Michigan (27.0-14.6) | 12.4 | 76.2% | Central Michigan |
| 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | Western Michigan at Northern Illinois | -3 | Northern Illinois (32.1-28.2) | 4.0 | 59.0% | Northern Illinois |
Thursday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 7:30 PM | ESPN | East Carolina at Central Florida | +14.5 | East Carolina (34.6-18.1) | 16.5 | 82.9% | East Carolina |
| 9:30 PM | ESPNU | UL-Monroe at Texas State | -6.5 | Texas State (34.8-26.7) | 8.1 | 67.9% | Texas State |
A 6-0 start? Okay, yes, please!
Friday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 8:00 PM | CBSSN | Cincinnati at South Florida | +2.5 | South Florida (31.7-29.0) | 2.7 | 56.3% | South Florida |
| 9:30 PM | ESPN2 | Air Force at Boise State | -12 | Boise State (29.4-26.8) | 2.5 | 55.8% | Air Force |
Saturday
Quite a few games with no lines yet for injury reasons -- Arizona-ASU, Houston-UConn, TCU-Oklahoma. Will add them if one pops up (and I don't completely forget).
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 12:00 PM | SECN | The Citadel at South Carolina | South Carolina (42.8-17.0) | 25.7 | 93.1% | ||
| 12:00 PM | SECN | Florida Atlantic at Florida | -31 | Florida (37.8-13.4) | 24.4 | 92.1% | Florida Atlantic |
| 12:00 PM | ESPNN | Illinois at Minnesota | -4.5 | Minnesota (25.7-21.4) | 4.3 | 59.8% | Illinois |
| 12:00 PM | BTN | Indiana at Maryland | -2.5 | Maryland (30.1-29.3) | 0.8 | 51.9% | Indiana |
| 12:00 PM | FS1 | Iowa State at Kansas State | -6 | Kansas State (29.4-29.0) | 0.4 | 51.0% | Iowa State |
| 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Memphis at Temple | +1.5 | Memphis (30.3-30.2) | 0.2 | 50.4% | Temple |
| 12:00 PM | ABC | Michigan at Penn State | +3.5 | Michigan (26.7-19.6) | 7.1 | 65.9% | Michigan |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN | North Carolina at Virginia Tech | +6.5 | North Carolina (29.4-27.8) | 1.6 | 53.7% | Virginia Tech |
| 12:00 PM | ASN | North Texas at Middle Tennessee | -24 | Middle Tennessee (42.6-16.1) | 26.5 | 93.7% | Middle Tennessee |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Purdue at Iowa | -22 | Iowa (35.8-17.6) | 18.2 | 85.3% | Purdue |
| 12:00 PM | CBSSN | Rutgers at Army | +4.5 | Rutgers (30.4-28.6) | 1.8 | 54.1% | Army |
| 12:00 PM | FSN affiliates | West Virginia at Kansas | +28 | West Virginia (44.8-15.4) | 29.4 | 95.5% | West Virginia |
| 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Georgia Tech at Miami-FL | +2 | Miami-FL (32.5-26.5) | 6.0 | 63.6% | Miami-FL |
| 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Syracuse at NC State | -17 | NC State (37.4-19.4) | 18.0 | 85.1% | NC State |
| 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Miami-OH at Massachusetts | -10 | Massachusetts (33.5-20.2) | 13.3 | 77.9% | Massachusetts |
| 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | South Alabama at Georgia State | -3 | Georgia State (33.9-28.5) | 5.4 | 62.2% | Georgia State |
| 2:30 PM | FCS | Western Kentucky at Florida International | +16.5 | Western Kentucky (41.1-23.3) | 17.8 | 84.9% | Western Kentucky |
| 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Fresno State at BYU | -26 | BYU (39.4-16.5) | 22.9 | 90.7% | Fresno State |
| 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Chattanooga at Florida State | Florida State (47.0-11.9) | 35.1 | 97.9% | ||
| 3:30 PM | FS1 | Arizona at Arizona State | ? | Arizona State (35.6-29.1) | 6.5 | 64.6% | ? |
| 3:30 PM | CBSSN | Buffalo at Akron | -4 | Akron (28.2-23.7) | 4.5 | 60.3% | Akron |
| 3:30 PM | Fox | UCLA at Utah | -2 | Utah (30.1-28.6) | 1.5 | 53.4% | UCLA |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Duke at Virginia | -2.5 | Duke (30.8-23.8) | 6.9 | 65.6% | Duke |
| 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Houston at Connecticut | ? | Houston (32.1-21.6) | 10.5 | 72.8% | ? |
| 3:30 PM | CBS | LSU at Ole Miss | -4.5 | Ole Miss (33.6-27.8) | 5.9 | 63.3% | Ole Miss |
| 3:30 PM | FSN | Louisiana Tech at UTEP | +24.5 | Louisiana Tech (45.2-17.7) | 27.4 | 94.4% | Louisiana Tech |
| 3:30 PM | ABC | Michigan State at Ohio State | -13 | Ohio State (35.2-20.8) | 14.4 | 79.7% | Ohio State |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Nevada at Utah State | -15 | Utah State (37.9-17.9) | 20.1 | 87.7% | Utah State |
| 3:30 PM | BTN | Northwestern at Wisconsin | -10 | Wisconsin (26.1-15.1) | 11.0 | 73.8% | Wisconsin |
| 3:30 PM | ASN | Old Dominion at Southern Miss | -21 | Southern Miss (39.3-18.1) | 21.3 | 89.1% | Southern Miss |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN | USC at Oregon | -4 | USC (35.8-31.1) | 4.7 | 60.7% | USC |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN2 | Wake Forest at Clemson | -29 | Clemson (44.4-7.9) | 36.5 | 98.3% | Clemson |
| 3:45 PM | ESPNN | Louisville at Pittsburgh | -2 | Pittsburgh (27.6-26.9) | 0.7 | 51.7% | Louisville |
| 4:00 PM | SECN | Charleston Southern at Alabama | Alabama (52.9--0.7) | 53.5 | 99.9% | ||
| 4:00 PM | SECN | Idaho at Auburn | -34 | Auburn (40.7-22.2) | 18.5 | 85.8% | Idaho |
| 5:00 PM | ESPN3 | New Mexico State at UL-Lafayette | -17 | UL-Lafayette (37.7-27.2) | 10.5 | 72.8% | New Mexico State |
| 5:30 PM | RSRM | Colorado State at New Mexico | +2 | Colorado State (33.1-24.8) | 8.3 | 68.3% | Colorado State |
| 6:00 PM | Pac-12 | Washington at Oregon State | +15 | Washington (36.5-16.4) | 20.1 | 87.7% | Washington |
| 7:00 PM | SEPNU | Georgia Southern at Georgia | -13.5 | Georgia (28.7-24.7) | 4.1 | 59.3% | Georgia Southern |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN | Mississippi State at Arkansas | -3.5 | Arkansas (34.8-31.1) | 3.8 | 58.6% | Arkansas |
| 7:00 PM | ASN | Rice at UTSA | -3 | UTSA (34.0-26.1) | 7.8 | 67.5% | UTSA |
| 7:00 PM | CBSSN | Navy at Tulsa | +12 | Navy (39.2-24.2) | 14.9 | 80.6% | Navy |
| 7:15 PM | ESPN2 | Tennessee at Missouri | +8.5 | Tennessee (27.5-17.0) | 10.5 | 72.7% | Tennessee |
| 7:30 PM | Fox | Baylor at Oklahoma State | 0 | Baylor (36.2-33.9) | 2.4 | 55.4% | Baylor |
| 7:30 PM | SECN | Charlotte at Kentucky | -24.5 | Kentucky (31.8-17.7) | 14.1 | 79.3% | Charlotte |
| 7:30 PM | SECN | Texas A&M at Vanderbilt | +7 | Texas A&M (24.3-22.8) | 1.4 | 53.3% | Vanderbilt |
| 7:30 PM | NBCSN | Boston College vs. Notre Dame | -16.5 | Notre Dame (29.8-15.9) | 13.9 | 78.9% | Boston College |
| 8:00 PM | ABC | TCU at Oklahoma | ? | Oklahoma (39.8-25.8) | 14.0 | 79.0% | ? |
| 8:00 PM | ESPNN | Tulane at SMU | -3 | SMU (31.7-26.3) | 5.4 | 62.2% | SMU |
| 10:30 PM | ESPN | California at Stanford | -11 | Stanford (37.9-27.8) | 10.0 | 71.9% | California |
| 10:30 PM | CBSSN | San Diego State at UNLV | +16 | San Diego State (32.8-20.8) | 12.0 | 75.5% | UNLV |
| 10:45 PM | ESPN2 | Colorado at Washington State | -15 | Washington State (36.6-25.1) | 11.5 | 74.7% | Colorado |
| 11:00 PM | MWC Video | San Jose State at Hawaii | +10 | San Jose State (29.3-23.9) | 5.4 | 62.3% | Hawaii |
Loading comments...