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Oregon 38, Stanford 36: Ducks made the big plays, Cardinal made mistakes

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By Bill C.
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Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

orestanwp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

186

Oregon

1

10

36

4

Team kneeldown

0.273

-0.273

2

70

Oregon

1

10

35

2

Vernon Adams Jr. Rush for -5, FUMBLE

0.551

0.257

3

37

Oregon

1

10

75

1

Charles Nelson Rush for 75, TOUCHDOWN

0.641

-0.207

4

81

Oregon

2

9

47

2

Vernon Adams Jr. Pass to Darren Carrington for 47, TOUCHDOWN

0.715

-0.171

5

151

Stanford

2

8

52

4

Kevin Hogan Rush for -1, FUMBLE

0.341

-0.170

Oregon 38, Stanford 36

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Oregon Stanford Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 48 86
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 29.2 36.5 29.7
Possessions 12 12
Scoring Opportunities*
 8 9
Points Per Opportunity 4.75 4.11 4.73
Leverage Rate** 72.9% 75.6% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.755 0.633 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Oregon Stanford
Total 42.7 48.3
Rushing 24.4 19.6
Passing 18.2 28.7
Success Rate (what's this?) Oregon Stanford Nat'l Avg
All (close) 45.8% 52.3% 41.7%
Rushing (close) 43.8% 47.8% 42.7%
Passing (close) 50.0% 57.5% 40.7%
Standard Downs 48.6% 53.9% 46.9%
Passing Downs 38.5% 47.6% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Oregon Stanford Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.94 1.07 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.75 0.89 1.07
Passing (close) 2.28 1.25 1.48
Standard Downs 1.73 0.91 1.11
Passing Downs 2.64 1.66 1.77
Line Stats Oregon Stanford Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.88 3.24 2.88
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 11.1% 0.0% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 42.9% 6.7% 7.6%
Turnovers Oregon Stanford
Turnovers 1 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 9.1 12.7
Turnover Margin Oregon +2
Exp. TO Margin Oregon +1.17
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Oregon +0.83
TO Points Margin Oregon +3.6 points
Situational Oregon Stanford
Q1 S&P 1.150 0.666
Q2 S&P 0.673 0.651
Q3 S&P 0.856 0.581
Q4 S&P 0.403 0.626
1st Down S&P 0.799 0.711
2nd Down S&P 0.799 0.659
3rd Down S&P 0.826 0.520
Projected Scoring Margin: Stanford by 2.1
Actual Scoring Margin: Oregon by 2

Boy, Oregon's offense was V-O-L-A-T-I-L-E. The Ducks' run blocking wasn't amazing, their run efficiency was only so-so (by their standards), and they gave up sacks like crazy. They also produced eight rushes of 10+ yards and four passes of 17+. Stanford was far more efficient, but a) there were few big plays, and b) the Cardinal shot themselves in the foot with three turnovers. That made the difference.

Formations/Basics

Oregon Stanford
Backs-Wide % of Plays Yds/Play % of Plays Yds/Play
0 backs, 2 wide 1.1% 8.0
0 backs, 5 wide 4.1% 0.0
1 back, 2 wide 4.1% 38.0 8.6% 5.9
1 back, 3 wide 55.1% 6.9 33.3% 7.7
1 back, 4 wide 24.5% 10.7 16.1% 5.3
2 backs, 0 wide 12.9% 4.1
2 backs, 1 wide 16.1% 3.6
2 backs, 2 wide 2.0% 12.0 3.2% 2.7
2 backs, 3 wide 6.1% 10.7 5.4% 3.6
3 backs, 0 wide 2.0% -2.0 3.2% 1.0
3 backs, 2 wide 2.0% 3.0
No Huddle? % of Plays Yds/Play
Oregon 67.3% 6.8
Stanford 0.0% N/A
Oregon Stanford
Hash % of Plays Yds/Play % of Plays Yds/Play
Left 24.5% 15.1 36.6% 6.7
Middle 24.5% 10.3 24.7% 6.8
Right 51.0% 5.2 38.7% 3.4

Stanford's shown a lot of diversity on offense this year -- the Cardinal operated from nine different formations on Saturday and actually saw far more success in the 1- and 0-back looks than in their more customary 2-back sets.

Meanwhile ... Oregon's offense was strangely unstoppable when lined up anywhere but on the right hash.

Passing

Oregon Stanford
Passing Comp Rt Yds/Pass Passing Comp Rt Yds/Pass
Behind Line 3-3, 22 yards 100.0% 7.3 7-8, 51 yards 87.5% 6.4
0 to 4 0-1, 0 yards 0.0% 0.0 2-5, 7 yards 40.0% 1.4
5 to 9 2-2, 45 yards 100.0% 22.5 11-12, 102 yards 91.7% 8.5
10 to 19 4-5, 91 yards 80.0% 18.2 7-8, 109 yards 87.5% 13.6
20 to 29 0-0, 0 yards N/A N/A 0-3, 0 yards 0.0% 0.0
30-plus 1-1, 47 yards 100.0% 47.0 1-3, 35 yards 33.3% 11.7
Oregon Stanford
% Blitz: 31.3% 12.5%
Avg. Rushers 4.2 3.9
Passing (no blitz) 7-9, 131 yards, 2 sacks, 11.9 yds. per att. 25-34, 284 yards, 1 sacks, 8.1 yds. per att.
Passing (blitz) 3-3, 74 yards, 2 sacks, 14.8 yds. per att. 3-5, 20 yards, 0 sacks, 4.0 yds. per att.
Reason for INC/INT Oregon Stanford
QB Fault 1 5
Good Defense 1 5
WR Fault 0 1

Six Stanford deep balls gained a total of 35 yards; one Oregon deep ball gained 47. Meanwhile, Oregon's intermediate passing game (5-19 yards) was untouchable, and the Ducks did a good job of tackling on Stanford's short passes.

Rushing

Oregon Stanford
Rush-Yds YPC Rush-Yds YPC
To Edge 17-133 7.8 22-117 5.3
Toward Tackle 7-33 4.7 13-61 4.7
Up Middle 8-88 11.0 9-31 3.4

Really nice job by Oregon in limiting Stanford's ground game. The Cardinal managed a 48 percent success rate, but there really weren't any big gains to be found, between or outside of the tackles.

QB Activity

Oregon Stanford
QB Move Rushes-Yds Passes-Yds Sacks-Yds Rushes-Yds Passes-Yds Sacks-Yds
Rollout 2-25 1-14
Option - speed option 2-20
Option - triple option 2-18
Option - zone read 3-17
QB Draw 8-46
Sack - in pocket 1-(-4)
Sack - coverage sack 3-(-14)
Sack - QB fault 1-(-9)
Broken Play 2-(-3)

Timing is everything. Vernon Adams doesn't keep the ball much, but he knows when to tuck it and go.

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