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I've had a lot of fun with my ratings redesign of late. The new S&P+ and F/+ ratings should be ready for reveal in the next couple of weeks -- which is good because the 2015 season preview series starts in A WEEK AND A FREAKING HALF -- but in the meantime, I wanted to play with some of the toys I've created recently.
The new S&P+ brings with it a Game Rating of sorts; it's similar to the Adj. Score that I've used in the past, though it gets a bit more complex. It also relates a team's single-game performance (adjusted for opponent) to a percentile figure, like a standardized test. Your Week 1 performance might have been in the 98th percentile, Week 2 in the 76th percentile, etc.
Using these per-game percentile scores, we can pretty clearly look at who improved as the season went on and (though I won't mention Ole Miss by name, ahem) who fell apart.
The "Season Average" figure you see below isn't any sort of full-season S&P+ rating -- the to-be-revealed ratings go a bit further than what you see here -- but this gives you a nice, clean look at how each FBS team's season flowed, from the first quarter of the season, to the second, etc.
Team | Weeks 1-4 | Rk | Weeks 5-8 | Rk | Weeks 9-12 | Rk | Weeks 13+ | Rk | Season Average | Rk |
Alabama | 95.2% | 4 | 80.2% | 11 | 90.0% | 4 | 92.7% | 3 | 90.1% | 1 |
Ohio State | 81.3% | 17 | 94.1% | 2 | 94.9% | 3 | 88.6% | 6 | 89.9% | 2 |
Oregon | 87.2% | 10 | 78.1% | 15 | 87.7% | 8 | 86.9% | 9 | 85.4% | 3 |
Auburn | 94.3% | 5 | 89.1% | 4 | 79.8% | 15 | 79.9% | 14 | 85.3% | 4 |
Georgia | 86.0% | 12 | 86.8% | 5 | 73.2% | 25 | 80.7% | 12 | 82.1% | 5 |
TCU | 85.3% | 13 | 79.0% | 12 | 68.4% | 30 | 95.2% | 1 | 80.5% | 6 |
Georgia Tech | 72.8% | 36 | 66.1% | 34 | 95.5% | 2 | 84.0% | 11 | 80.2% | 7 |
Arkansas | 82.3% | 16 | 55.6% | 55 | 89.8% | 5 | 91.5% | 4 | 80.0% | 8 |
Ole Miss | 97.9% | 1 | 97.3% | 1 | 71.0% | 28 | 43.3% | 77 | 78.9% | 9 |
Michigan State | 78.8% | 24 | 75.3% | 19 | 76.2% | 20 | 85.6% | 10 | 78.7% | 10 |
UCLA | 70.1% | 41 | 76.8% | 16 | 88.2% | 6 | 79.3% | 15 | 78.5% | 11 |
Baylor | 96.3% | 2 | 68.7% | 30 | 87.9% | 7 | 70.1% | 24 | 78.4% | 12 |
Mississippi State | 92.2% | 7 | 90.2% | 3 | 72.9% | 26 | 55.6% | 55 | 77.5% | 13 |
Florida State | 74.6% | 33 | 85.5% | 7 | 80.1% | 14 | 63.4% | 38 | 75.7% | 14 |
Oklahoma | 91.9% | 8 | 75.9% | 17 | 74.5% | 23 | 53.8% | 56 | 75.4% | 15 |
Marshall | 80.3% | 22 | 85.8% | 6 | 84.4% | 10 | 55.8% | 54 | 75.3% | 16 |
Stanford | 93.9% | 6 | 63.2% | 37 | 56.1% | 55 | 91.2% | 5 | 75.1% | 17 |
Boise State | 71.5% | 39 | 59.7% | 45 | 72.6% | 27 | 88.1% | 7 | 73.9% | 18 |
Louisville | 75.3% | 30 | 81.0% | 10 | 70.6% | 29 | 61.3% | 42 | 73.1% | 19 |
LSU | 82.3% | 15 | 72.2% | 23 | 59.3% | 47 | 75.3% | 19 | 72.8% | 20 |
Clemson | 61.3% | 58 | 68.8% | 28 | 64.9% | 39 | 94.4% | 2 | 72.1% | 21 |
Missouri | 80.7% | 20 | 57.7% | 47 | 76.5% | 19 | 68.4% | 28 | 71.4% | 22 |
USC | 59.7% | 60 | 78.9% | 13 | 77.0% | 17 | 64.7% | 36 | 70.8% | 23 |
Wisconsin | 75.6% | 28 | 55.6% | 54 | 96.5% | 1 | 51.7% | 63 | 70.5% | 24 |
Notre Dame | 86.6% | 11 | 73.6% | 22 | 65.6% | 36 | 52.4% | 58 | 69.9% | 25 |
Full-season ratings can be tricky sometimes because the team that finishes the season is sometimes drastically different than the one that played a good portion of the year. Ole Miss is an almost-too-perfect example of that. Spoiler alert: the Rebels are going to rank quite high in the full-season ratings, and it's pretty obvious why. They were by far the best team of the first eight weeks of the season, averaging a performance in the 97th percentile from game to game. But they lost a couple of games and suffered probably the single most painful loss of the season (the Auburn game). Here are their last six performances of the season:
LSU: 61st percentile
Auburn: 60th percentile
Presbyterian: 92nd percentile
Arkansas: 23rd percentile
Mississippi State: 96th percentile
TCU: 11th percentile
The good team was still in there, as evidenced by the performances against Presbyterian (immediately suffocating, no hope given to a bad team) and Mississippi State. But the Rebs faltered offensively against LSU and defensively against Auburn and got simply wrecked by Arkansas and (especially) TCU. It was a fragile end for a team that was incredible through seven games.
Team | Weeks 1-4 | Rk | Weeks 5-8 | Rk | Weeks 9-12 | Rk | Weeks 13+ | Rk | Season Average | Rk |
Florida | 63.8% | 50 | 50.7% | 63 | 83.3% | 12 | 80.2% | 13 | 69.5% | 26 |
Kansas State | 63.6% | 52 | 78.4% | 14 | 76.8% | 18 | 60.7% | 44 | 69.1% | 27 |
Tennessee | 68.7% | 47 | 66.1% | 33 | 73.2% | 24 | 68.5% | 27 | 68.9% | 28 |
Arizona State | 81.0% | 18 | 62.9% | 39 | 68.3% | 31 | 61.5% | 41 | 68.4% | 29 |
Nebraska | 80.3% | 21 | 67.5% | 32 | 62.0% | 42 | 58.0% | 52 | 68.0% | 30 |
Virginia Tech | 80.9% | 19 | 70.5% | 25 | 45.2% | 74 | 63.4% | 39 | 66.2% | 31 |
Miami-FL | 74.3% | 34 | 82.2% | 8 | 84.3% | 11 | 20.7% | 111 | 66.1% | 32 |
Arizona | 70.1% | 42 | 73.7% | 21 | 58.4% | 51 | 65.7% | 33 | 66.0% | 33 |
Cincinnati | 75.2% | 31 | 44.5% | 77 | 77.4% | 16 | 74.2% | 20 | 66.0% | 34 |
Texas A&M | 95.9% | 3 | 39.0% | 88 | 58.5% | 50 | 68.9% | 26 | 65.6% | 35 |
Boston College | 67.5% | 48 | 69.5% | 26 | 59.3% | 48 | 65.2% | 35 | 65.5% | 36 |
Texas | 62.9% | 54 | 71.7% | 24 | 75.4% | 22 | 33.1% | 96 | 64.9% | 37 |
Minnesota | 69.2% | 44 | 61.8% | 41 | 65.5% | 37 | 59.1% | 50 | 64.3% | 38 |
South Carolina | 65.3% | 49 | 65.5% | 35 | 54.3% | 58 | 70.7% | 23 | 64.0% | 39 |
Louisiana Tech | 52.9% | 70 | 56.3% | 52 | 83.0% | 13 | 66.6% | 31 | 64.0% | 40 |
West Virginia | 69.4% | 43 | 73.8% | 20 | 56.4% | 53 | 50.9% | 65 | 63.2% | 41 |
Utah | 87.9% | 9 | 47.4% | 70 | 65.0% | 38 | 50.6% | 66 | 62.9% | 42 |
Virginia | 72.1% | 38 | 69.2% | 27 | 36.7% | 92 | 73.5% | 21 | 62.8% | 43 |
Pittsburgh | 74.7% | 32 | 50.7% | 62 | 39.6% | 85 | 78.9% | 16 | 62.0% | 44 |
Memphis | 68.7% | 46 | 43.8% | 80 | 60.7% | 45 | 70.0% | 25 | 60.8% | 45 |
BYU | 76.8% | 27 | 35.8% | 97 | 59.4% | 46 | 65.5% | 34 | 60.7% | 46 |
Penn State | 79.9% | 23 | 22.8% | 114 | 63.8% | 41 | 52.2% | 61 | 59.8% | 47 |
Navy | 57.4% | 64 | 53.2% | 58 | 61.2% | 44 | 62.0% | 40 | 58.4% | 48 |
NC State | 83.2% | 14 | 27.1% | 110 | 46.6% | 69 | 87.7% | 8 | 58.2% | 49 |
Michigan | 58.2% | 63 | 60.4% | 44 | 64.2% | 40 | 45.5% | 73 | 58.1% | 50 |
I'm annoyed with you, Miami. The Hurricanes started slowly with a freshman quarterback but looked so good in the second and third quarters of the year that I pretty much had to point them out. And then they lost to Florida State and looked absolutely horrific down the stretch.
Miami's last seven games:
Cincinnati: 99th percentile
Virginia Tech: 99th percentile
North Carolina: 98th percentile
Florida State: 56th percentile
Virginia: 10th percentile
Pitt: 22nd percentile
South Carolina: 30th percentile
Again, Miami's full-season averages are good enough to make them outliers from a win-loss standpoint. But the end was ... forgettable.
Meanwhile ... hello there, N.C. State, playing like Appalachian State in the second quarter of the year and Florida State in the fourth. Sample sizes are an issue with the Wolfpack -- they only actually played two games in the fourth quarter, but they looked spectacular.
And how about Florida, basically sealing Will Muschamp's fate with awful performances against Alabama (28th percentile) and Missouri (21st), then relaxing and actually playing mostly well the rest of the way.
Team | Weeks 1-4 | Rk | Weeks 5-8 | Rk | Weeks 9-12 | Rk | Weeks 13+ | Rk | Season Average | Rk |
Utah State | 38.8% | 86 | 81.3% | 9 | 58.9% | 49 | 59.2% | 49 | 58.0% | 51 |
Western Kentucky | 50.7% | 73 | 49.3% | 68 | 52.4% | 61 | 78.3% | 18 | 57.3% | 52 |
Maryland | 73.0% | 35 | 54.5% | 56 | 41.4% | 82 | 52.2% | 60 | 56.6% | 53 |
Georgia Southern | 57.4% | 65 | 56.8% | 50 | 55.6% | 56 | 43.0% | 78 | 55.4% | 54 |
Air Force | 42.0% | 79 | 55.9% | 53 | 66.9% | 33 | 56.4% | 53 | 55.3% | 55 |
Colorado State | 39.6% | 85 | 61.0% | 42 | 75.7% | 21 | 39.6% | 86 | 54.5% | 56 |
North Carolina | 62.5% | 55 | 57.2% | 49 | 51.7% | 62 | 41.8% | 83 | 53.6% | 57 |
Kentucky | 77.2% | 26 | 64.2% | 36 | 27.8% | 102 | 31.5% | 97 | 52.6% | 58 |
UL-Lafayette | 27.8% | 104 | 75.4% | 18 | 66.0% | 35 | 48.1% | 70 | 52.3% | 59 |
Arkansas State | 44.2% | 78 | 57.3% | 48 | 66.2% | 34 | 39.4% | 88 | 51.2% | 60 |
Iowa | 51.1% | 72 | 63.0% | 38 | 61.2% | 43 | 26.2% | 106 | 50.4% | 61 |
Oklahoma State | 72.8% | 37 | 44.5% | 76 | 20.5% | 114 | 64.7% | 37 | 50.2% | 62 |
Toledo | 40.0% | 83 | 45.9% | 72 | 45.3% | 73 | 72.4% | 22 | 50.1% | 63 |
Western Michigan | 47.9% | 75 | 34.4% | 98 | 87.1% | 9 | 35.4% | 94 | 49.9% | 64 |
Rutgers | 61.8% | 57 | 50.7% | 64 | 38.3% | 88 | 44.0% | 75 | 49.7% | 65 |
Texas Tech | 58.5% | 61 | 43.5% | 81 | 36.9% | 91 | 67.4% | 30 | 49.6% | 66 |
Duke | 71.5% | 40 | 45.5% | 75 | 45.8% | 70 | 28.3% | 103 | 49.6% | 67 |
Central Florida | 41.2% | 81 | 54.1% | 57 | 53.6% | 59 | 49.5% | 68 | 49.6% | 68 |
California | 75.4% | 29 | 41.9% | 82 | 39.0% | 87 | 41.8% | 82 | 49.6% | 69 |
Illinois | 62.9% | 53 | 33.1% | 101 | 31.4% | 97 | 66.3% | 32 | 49.5% | 70 |
Temple | 63.8% | 51 | 45.7% | 74 | 43.4% | 78 | 46.2% | 72 | 49.5% | 71 |
Rice | 10.1% | 125 | 68.8% | 29 | 56.2% | 54 | 60.6% | 46 | 49.5% | 72 |
Washington State | 62.3% | 56 | 60.5% | 43 | 36.0% | 95 | 21.8% | 110 | 48.5% | 73 |
East Carolina | 53.9% | 69 | 37.6% | 94 | 25.7% | 105 | 60.6% | 45 | 47.9% | 74 |
Washington | 57.4% | 66 | 38.8% | 90 | 37.5% | 90 | 58.0% | 51 | 47.8% | 75 |
We'll say Kentucky was a prototypical young team -- solid and exciting early, tired and bereft of answers late. Texas Tech was the opposite, lumbering through most of the year before starting to figure some things out late (50th percentile against Iowa State, 85th against Baylor)
Then there are Utah State and UL-Lafayette, laying eggs against big teams early, then relaxing and playing at a high level thereafter. (Remember, the performances are indeed adjusted for opponent.)
Team | Weeks 1-4 | Rk | Weeks 5-8 | Rk | Weeks 9-12 | Rk | Weeks 13+ | Rk | Season Average | Rk |
Oregon State | 78.4% | 25 | 31.7% | 106 | 50.2% | 63 | 16.9% | 115 | 47.1% | 76 |
Colorado | 55.6% | 68 | 37.8% | 93 | 46.8% | 68 | 42.0% | 80 | 46.7% | 77 |
Purdue | 60.6% | 59 | 52.1% | 60 | 18.8% | 119 | 30.7% | 98 | 45.8% | 78 |
South Alabama | 30.6% | 100 | 68.4% | 31 | 47.5% | 65 | 35.6% | 92 | 45.7% | 79 |
San Diego State | 26.9% | 109 | 44.1% | 79 | 42.0% | 81 | 68.2% | 29 | 45.2% | 80 |
Northern Illinois | 37.4% | 88 | 39.5% | 86 | 45.5% | 72 | 60.9% | 43 | 45.2% | 81 |
Nevada | 37.2% | 90 | 46.9% | 71 | 53.6% | 60 | 42.4% | 79 | 45.2% | 82 |
Indiana | 69.0% | 45 | 51.7% | 61 | 7.1% | 128 | 52.1% | 62 | 44.9% | 83 |
UAB | 56.0% | 67 | 38.5% | 92 | 18.2% | 120 | 78.4% | 17 | 44.4% | 84 |
Northwestern | 44.4% | 77 | 58.9% | 46 | 23.7% | 112 | 41.0% | 85 | 43.5% | 85 |
Central Michigan | 22.2% | 114 | 62.8% | 40 | 55.5% | 57 | 28.5% | 102 | 43.4% | 86 |
Syracuse | 58.3% | 62 | 40.3% | 84 | 48.0% | 64 | 19.3% | 113 | 43.2% | 87 |
UTEP | 52.2% | 71 | 17.7% | 119 | 67.7% | 32 | 22.3% | 109 | 42.1% | 88 |
Houston | 39.8% | 84 | 49.5% | 67 | 43.5% | 77 | 36.6% | 91 | 41.6% | 89 |
Middle Tennessee | 37.3% | 89 | 56.7% | 51 | 20.2% | 115 | 41.0% | 84 | 41.5% | 90 |
Kansas | 50.1% | 74 | 31.9% | 105 | 57.3% | 52 | 5.7% | 126 | 38.5% | 91 |
New Mexico | 27.2% | 107 | 41.3% | 83 | 42.2% | 80 | 39.4% | 87 | 37.7% | 92 |
UL-Monroe | 41.6% | 80 | 19.3% | 117 | 39.8% | 84 | 50.0% | 67 | 36.8% | 93 |
Tulane | 36.3% | 92 | 40.2% | 85 | 47.1% | 67 | 13.3% | 117 | 36.1% | 94 |
Fresno State | 22.9% | 113 | 50.3% | 65 | 30.3% | 99 | 37.0% | 90 | 35.8% | 95 |
Iowa State | 40.1% | 82 | 45.7% | 73 | 13.9% | 122 | 29.5% | 100 | 35.0% | 96 |
Florida Atlantic | 31.9% | 98 | 38.8% | 89 | 28.1% | 101 | 44.0% | 76 | 34.7% | 97 |
Appalachian State | 28.8% | 101 | 22.9% | 113 | 44.6% | 75 | 51.4% | 64 | 34.6% | 98 |
Ohio | 31.3% | 99 | 32.5% | 103 | 39.1% | 86 | 35.5% | 93 | 34.0% | 99 |
Bowling Green | 24.0% | 111 | 52.7% | 59 | 44.4% | 76 | 19.9% | 112 | 33.9% | 100 |
Purdue was a poor man's Miami, playing just well enough early on (compared to expectations, at least) that I started paying attention, then faltering. Of course, the Boilers had nothing on Mike Riley's last Oregon State team in this regard. And poor Indiana completely bottomed out following the injury to quarterback Nate Sudfeld, then rallied late when it was too late to do something with the season.
Team | Weeks 1-4 | Rk | Weeks 5-8 | Rk | Weeks 9-12 | Rk | Weeks 13+ | Rk | Season Average | Rk |
Kent State | 20.0% | 116 | 32.5% | 102 | 40.0% | 83 | 59.8% | 48 | 33.6% | 101 |
Akron | 32.8% | 97 | 48.5% | 69 | 22.5% | 113 | 14.8% | 116 | 33.1% | 102 |
UTSA | 47.1% | 76 | 35.9% | 96 | 12.9% | 124 | 34.1% | 95 | 32.7% | 103 |
Miami-OH | 23.6% | 112 | 44.4% | 78 | 25.1% | 106 | 37.5% | 89 | 32.1% | 104 |
Vanderbilt | 27.0% | 108 | 27.7% | 109 | 43.2% | 79 | 27.2% | 105 | 31.3% | 105 |
Southern Miss | 25.9% | 110 | 37.1% | 95 | 37.5% | 89 | 6.8% | 124 | 31.0% | 106 |
Old Dominion | 38.8% | 87 | 16.1% | 121 | 24.6% | 109 | 44.9% | 74 | 30.6% | 107 |
Texas State | 33.2% | 96 | 22.3% | 116 | 19.5% | 117 | 60.2% | 47 | 30.4% | 108 |
Georgia State | 34.6% | 94 | 33.3% | 100 | 8.9% | 126 | 49.1% | 69 | 30.3% | 109 |
Florida International | 28.0% | 103 | 39.0% | 87 | 30.7% | 98 | 1.9% | 128 | 30.1% | 110 |
Wyoming | 36.3% | 91 | 14.7% | 124 | 45.7% | 71 | 12.0% | 120 | 29.2% | 111 |
San Jose State | 27.2% | 106 | 49.6% | 66 | 24.3% | 110 | 4.0% | 127 | 28.0% | 112 |
Wake Forest | 33.8% | 95 | 14.8% | 123 | 19.7% | 116 | 46.2% | 71 | 27.6% | 113 |
Idaho | 19.8% | 117 | 32.4% | 104 | 27.8% | 103 | 29.0% | 101 | 27.4% | 114 |
North Texas | 34.9% | 93 | 4.2% | 128 | 24.9% | 107 | 41.9% | 81 | 25.9% | 115 |
Ball State | 14.4% | 123 | 14.6% | 125 | 33.6% | 96 | 53.7% | 57 | 25.8% | 116 |
South Florida | 28.4% | 102 | 38.8% | 91 | 12.6% | 125 | 18.5% | 114 | 25.4% | 117 |
Buffalo | 17.2% | 119 | 13.6% | 126 | 36.5% | 93 | 52.3% | 59 | 24.6% | 118 |
Tulsa | 17.1% | 120 | 22.6% | 115 | 24.8% | 108 | 30.5% | 99 | 23.1% | 119 |
UNLV | 20.5% | 115 | 17.9% | 118 | 25.9% | 104 | 24.3% | 108 | 22.2% | 120 |
Connecticut | 16.7% | 122 | 24.7% | 112 | 47.5% | 66 | 9.1% | 122 | 22.0% | 121 |
Troy | 9.7% | 126 | 31.3% | 107 | 28.8% | 100 | 13.2% | 118 | 21.7% | 122 |
Massachusetts | 11.2% | 124 | 24.8% | 111 | 36.2% | 94 | 6.8% | 125 | 21.6% | 123 |
Army | 27.3% | 105 | 15.1% | 122 | 15.5% | 121 | 25.0% | 107 | 19.9% | 124 |
SMU | 4.5% | 128 | 16.9% | 120 | 24.0% | 111 | 28.2% | 104 | 18.4% | 125 |
Hawaii | 16.8% | 121 | 29.4% | 108 | 13.1% | 123 | 13.1% | 119 | 18.0% | 126 |
New Mexico State | 19.7% | 118 | 11.5% | 127 | 19.5% | 118 | 10.4% | 121 | 15.4% | 127 |
Eastern Michigan | 6.7% | 127 | 34.2% | 99 | 8.7% | 127 | 8.4% | 123 | 14.4% | 128 |
There's no automatic correlation between late-season performance and the next year's performance, but needless to say, teams like Kent State, Texas State, Georgia State, Wake Forest, Ball State, and Buffalo have to like how they finished the season compared to how they started it. Ball State was bad to a baffling degree for the first half of the year (only one performance in the first seven games was above the 13th percentile), then looked decent in beating EMU (35th) and great in smoking BGSU (72nd).
That's something, at least. Other teams never really got off the ground. Or in UConn's case, the Huskies started to get off the ground, then crashed and burned.
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