This offseason I developed a win-probability model for College Football. The Model is built off play-by-play data from 2009-2012 and considers the Down, Distance, Spot, Lead, and Time Remaining of each play, as well as pre-game factors such as who is home and FBS vs. FCS teams. You can read more about the development and accuracy here.
Georgia at South Carolina
USC at Boston College
This game really wasn't that close after half time. USC had some big plays late but ultimately couldn't stop Boston College's offense.
Texas vs UCLA
Texas had a 78% chance of winning the game with just under 6 minutes remaining. When they missed the 4th down with 2 minutes remaining they had only a 20% chance of winning. Wow.
Louisville at Virginia
East Carolina at Virginia Tech
This game was over quickly, Virginia Tech tried to make a game out of it in the 4th quarter but I'm shocked ECU went up so quick.
Tennessee at Oklahoma
Houston at BYU
Iowa State at Iowa
UCF at Missouri
