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Win projections
Needless to say, this race became pretty clear last week. Arizona State could still muddy things up, and UCLA (which whipped ASU) lingers just a game back, but the chances of an Oregon-ASU title game are looking strong.
| North | F/+ Ranking | Proj. Conf. Wins | Last Week (Change) | With Week 11 win | With Week 11 loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon (5-1, 8-1) | 2 | 7.84 | 7.57 (+0.27) | 7.97 | 6.97 |
| Stanford (3-3, 5-4) | 33 | 4.53 | 5.12 (-0.58) | ||
| Washington (2-3, 6-3) | 60 | 3.58 | 2.97 (+0.61) | 4.45 | 3.45 |
| California (3-4, 5-4) | 48 | 3.47 | 2.98 (+0.49) | ||
| Oregon State (1-4, 4-4) | 70 | 2.14 | 2.49 (-0.35) | 2.43 | 1.43 |
| Washington State (1-5, 2-7) | 78 | 1.69 | 2.06 (-0.36) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| South | F/+ Ranking | Proj. Conf. Wins | Last Week (Change) | With Week 11 win | With Week 11 loss |
| Arizona State (5-1, 7-1) | 21 | 7.46 | 7.18 (+0.28) | ||
| UCLA (4-2, 7-2) | 16 | 6.35 | 5.74 (+0.61) | 6.48 | 5.48 |
| USC (5-3, 6-3) | 23 | 6.16 | 6.13 (+0.03) | ||
| Arizona (3-2, 6-2) | 28 | 5.64 | 6.18 (-0.54) | 5.71 | 4.71 |
| Utah (3-2, 6-2) | 34 | 4.88 | 4.95 (-0.07) | 5.75 | 4.75 |
| Colorado (0-6, 2-7) | 76 | 0.26 | 0.64 (-0.38) | 1.19 | 0.19 |
NORTH
Major contenders: Oregon
Minor contenders: nope
Basically, any scenario that features the North turning into a race requires Oregon to lose out, which means losing to both Utah and Oregon State on the road and Colorado at home. So ... congrats, Ducks. You're good to go.
SOUTH
Serious contenders: Arizona State
Minor contenders: UCLA, USC
Again, ASU's not in the clear here. The Sun Devils do still have to play at Arizona, and a trip to Corvallis never feels like a total gimme. But for UCLA to win the division, ASU would have to get upset (and yes, Arizona beating ASU would only be a tiny upset) and UCLA would have to win out against Washington (road), USC (home), and Stanford (home). Impossible? Hardly. But ASU's the favorite heading into Week 11.
All Projections
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 11 | 08-Nov-14 | Colorado | Arizona | 6.6% |
| 11 | 08-Nov-14 | Oregon | Utah | 87.6% |
| 11 | 08-Nov-14 | UCLA | Washington | 87.1% |
| 11 | 08-Nov-14 | Washington State | Oregon State | 29.7% |
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 12 | 13-Nov-14 | California | USC | 13.5% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Arizona State | Oregon State | 89.2% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Utah | Stanford | 35.7% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Washington | Arizona | 12.0% |
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Arizona | Utah | 42.7% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Colorado | Oregon | 1.4% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Oregon State | Washington | 30.6% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Stanford | California | 66.8% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | USC | UCLA | 30.8% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Washington State | Arizona State | 2.9% |
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 14 | 28-Nov-14 | Arizona State | Arizona | 58.8% |
| 14 | 28-Nov-14 | Stanford | UCLA | 21.4% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Oregon | Oregon State | 98.3% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Utah | Colorado | 82.8% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Washington | Washington State | 62.7% |
Title Games
From today's playoff projections piece at the mothership:
Oregon vs. Arizona State: Oregon 82%
Oregon vs. UCLA: Oregon 80%Oregon has about an 86 percent chance of reaching 11-1. These odds suggest the Ducks have about a 70 percent chance of reaching 12-1. Those are the best odds you're going to find.
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