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Updated Pac-12 projections through 10 weeks

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Ralph Freso

Win projections

Needless to say, this race became pretty clear last week. Arizona State could still muddy things up, and UCLA (which whipped ASU) lingers just a game back, but the chances of an Oregon-ASU title game are looking strong.

Odds of Pac-12 conference records
North F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 11 win With Week 11 loss
Oregon (5-1, 8-1) 2 7.84 7.57 (+0.27) 7.97 6.97
Stanford (3-3, 5-4) 33 4.53 5.12 (-0.58)

Washington (2-3, 6-3) 60 3.58 2.97 (+0.61) 4.45 3.45
California (3-4, 5-4) 48 3.47 2.98 (+0.49)

Oregon State (1-4, 4-4) 70 2.14 2.49 (-0.35) 2.43 1.43
Washington State (1-5, 2-7) 78 1.69 2.06 (-0.36) 2.40 1.40
South F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 11 win With Week 11 loss
Arizona State (5-1, 7-1) 21 7.46 7.18 (+0.28)

UCLA (4-2, 7-2) 16 6.35 5.74 (+0.61) 6.48 5.48
USC (5-3, 6-3) 23 6.16 6.13 (+0.03)

Arizona (3-2, 6-2) 28 5.64 6.18 (-0.54) 5.71 4.71
Utah (3-2, 6-2) 34 4.88 4.95 (-0.07) 5.75 4.75
Colorado (0-6, 2-7) 76 0.26 0.64 (-0.38) 1.19 0.19

NORTH
Major contenders: Oregon
Minor contenders: nope

Basically, any scenario that features the North turning into a race requires Oregon to lose out, which means losing to both Utah and Oregon State on the road and Colorado at home. So ... congrats, Ducks. You're good to go.

SOUTH
Serious contenders: Arizona State
Minor contenders: UCLA, USC

Again, ASU's not in the clear here. The Sun Devils do still have to play at Arizona, and a trip to Corvallis never feels like a total gimme. But for UCLA to win the division, ASU would have to get upset (and yes, Arizona beating ASU would only be a tiny upset) and UCLA would have to win out against Washington (road), USC (home), and Stanford (home). Impossible? Hardly. But ASU's the favorite heading into Week 11.

All Projections

Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
11 08-Nov-14 Colorado Arizona 6.6%
11 08-Nov-14 Oregon Utah 87.6%
11 08-Nov-14 UCLA Washington 87.1%
11 08-Nov-14 Washington State Oregon State 29.7%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
12 13-Nov-14 California USC 13.5%
12 15-Nov-14 Arizona State Oregon State 89.2%
12 15-Nov-14 Utah Stanford 35.7%
12 15-Nov-14 Washington Arizona 12.0%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
13 22-Nov-14 Arizona Utah 42.7%
13 22-Nov-14 Colorado Oregon 1.4%
13 22-Nov-14 Oregon State Washington 30.6%
13 22-Nov-14 Stanford California 66.8%
13 22-Nov-14 USC UCLA 30.8%
13 22-Nov-14 Washington State Arizona State 2.9%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
14 28-Nov-14 Arizona State Arizona 58.8%
14 28-Nov-14 Stanford UCLA 21.4%
14 29-Nov-14 Oregon Oregon State 98.3%
14 29-Nov-14 Utah Colorado 82.8%
14 29-Nov-14 Washington Washington State 62.7%

Title Games

From today's playoff projections piece at the mothership:

Oregon vs. Arizona State: Oregon 82%
Oregon vs. UCLA: Oregon 80%

Oregon has about an 86 percent chance of reaching 11-1. These odds suggest the Ducks have about a 70 percent chance of reaching 12-1. Those are the best odds you're going to find.