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Updated ACC projections through 10 weeks

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Mike Ehrmann

Win projections

The dream of a seven-way 4-4 tie in the Coastal Division died when Pitt missed a short field goal at the end of regulation against Duke. Duke's win made it nearly impossible for the Blue Devils to finish 4-4. So now we flip in the other direction and aim for them to go 11-1 and reach the Playoff committee's top 10 instead!

Odds of ACC conference records
Atlantic F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 11 win With Week 11 loss
Florida State (5-0, 8-0) 8 7.18 6.55 (+0.63) 7.26 6.26
Clemson (5-1, 6-2) 13 6.40 6.64 (-0.24) 6.43 5.43
Louisville (4-3, 6-3) 17 4.63 5.30 (-0.67) 5.00 4.00
Boston College (3-2, 6-3) 29 4.42 3.72 (+0.70) 5.05 4.05
N.C. State (1-4, 5-4) 58 2.55 2.06 (+0.49) 3.40 2.40
Syracuse (1-4, 3-6) 71 1.40 1.71 (-0.32) 2.26 1.26
Wake Forest (0-4, 2-6) 84 0.33 0.28 (+0.05) 1.30 0.30
Coastal F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 11 win With Week 11 loss
Duke (3-1, 7-1) 26 6.48 6.06 (+0.42) 6.62 5.62
Georgia Tech (4-2, 7-2) 19 5.42 4.90 (+0.52) 5.57 4.57
Miami (3-2, 6-3) 12 5.33 5.12 (+0.21)

Pittsburgh (2-3, 4-5) 40 3.67 4.01 (-0.34)

Virginia Tech (1-4, 4-5) 30 2.94 3.58 (-0.64)

North Carolina (2-3, 4-5) 72 2.75 3.13 (-0.38)

Virginia (2-3, 4-5) 43 2.50 2.94 (-0.44) 3.42 2.42

ATLANTIC
Major contenders: Florida State
Minor contenders: Clemson

Because Clemson blew a shot to beat FSU without Jameis Winston, and because FSU therefore had the tie-breaker, any hopes of Clemson winning the division ended when FSU pulled away from Louisville in the fourth quarter last Thursday night.

And like I've mentioned before, FSU is a hair lower in the numbers than it should be thanks to Winston missing the Clemson game (which has also helped Clemson to rank so high defensively) and Oklahoma State's offense tanking after losing quarterback J.W. Walsh. So if you're inclined, bump them up a bit when you look at the individual games below. Regardless, the 'Noles are heavy division favorites. It's just that next week's trip to Miami is far from an automatic win, especially if that front seven doesn't heal up and/or improve a bit.

COASTAL
Serious contenders: Duke
Minor contenders: Georgia Tech, Miami

This race isn't over by any means, but Duke is the clear favorite coming down the stretch. If the Blue Devils get upset -- maybe on the road against Syracuse or at home against Virginia Tech (and yeah, "Virginia Tech beats Duke" would be quite the upset at this point, as funny as those words sound) or bipolar UNC, then they have to hope Miami does indeed lose to FSU. The balance could still swing. But Duke owns the tiebreaker over Georgia Tech and is at least a 70 percent favorite in each remaining game.

All Projections

Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
11 06-Nov-14 Clemson Wake Forest 97.1%
11 08-Nov-14 Duke Syracuse 86.6%
11 08-Nov-14 Georgia Tech NC State 85.2%
11 08-Nov-14 Louisville Boston College 63.7%
11 08-Nov-14 Virginia Florida State 7.6%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
12 15-Nov-14 Clemson Georgia Tech 43.0%
12 15-Nov-14 Florida State Miami 40.2%
12 15-Nov-14 Pittsburgh North Carolina 73.5%
12 15-Nov-14 Virginia Tech Duke 29.2%
12 15-Nov-14 Wake Forest NC State 17.6%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
13 20-Nov-14 North Carolina Duke 6.3%
13 22-Nov-14 Boston College Florida State 14.8%
13 22-Nov-14 Miami Virginia 82.7%
13 22-Nov-14 Syracuse Pittsburgh 16.1%
13 22-Nov-14 Virginia Tech Wake Forest 89.8%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
14 28-Nov-14 Virginia Virginia Tech 24.8%
14 29-Nov-14 NC State North Carolina 58.3%
14 29-Nov-14 Pittsburgh Miami 10.2%
14 29-Nov-14 Syracuse Boston College 9.6%
14 29-Nov-14 Wake Forest Duke 2.6%

Title Games

From today's playoff projections piece at the mothership:

Florida State vs. Duke: Florida State 75%

There is about a 14 percent chance that "12-1 ACC champion Duke" happens.

(And an 86 percent chance it doesn't.)