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Win projections
The dream of a seven-way 4-4 tie in the Coastal Division died when Pitt missed a short field goal at the end of regulation against Duke. Duke's win made it nearly impossible for the Blue Devils to finish 4-4. So now we flip in the other direction and aim for them to go 11-1 and reach the Playoff committee's top 10 instead!
| Atlantic | F/+ Ranking | Proj. Conf. Wins | Last Week (Change) | With Week 11 win | With Week 11 loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State (5-0, 8-0) | 8 | 7.18 | 6.55 (+0.63) | 7.26 | 6.26 |
| Clemson (5-1, 6-2) | 13 | 6.40 | 6.64 (-0.24) | 6.43 | 5.43 |
| Louisville (4-3, 6-3) | 17 | 4.63 | 5.30 (-0.67) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| Boston College (3-2, 6-3) | 29 | 4.42 | 3.72 (+0.70) | 5.05 | 4.05 |
| N.C. State (1-4, 5-4) | 58 | 2.55 | 2.06 (+0.49) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Syracuse (1-4, 3-6) | 71 | 1.40 | 1.71 (-0.32) | 2.26 | 1.26 |
| Wake Forest (0-4, 2-6) | 84 | 0.33 | 0.28 (+0.05) | 1.30 | 0.30 |
| Coastal | F/+ Ranking | Proj. Conf. Wins | Last Week (Change) | With Week 11 win | With Week 11 loss |
| Duke (3-1, 7-1) | 26 | 6.48 | 6.06 (+0.42) | 6.62 | 5.62 |
| Georgia Tech (4-2, 7-2) | 19 | 5.42 | 4.90 (+0.52) | 5.57 | 4.57 |
| Miami (3-2, 6-3) | 12 | 5.33 | 5.12 (+0.21) | ||
| Pittsburgh (2-3, 4-5) | 40 | 3.67 | 4.01 (-0.34) | ||
| Virginia Tech (1-4, 4-5) | 30 | 2.94 | 3.58 (-0.64) | ||
| North Carolina (2-3, 4-5) | 72 | 2.75 | 3.13 (-0.38) | ||
| Virginia (2-3, 4-5) | 43 | 2.50 | 2.94 (-0.44) | 3.42 | 2.42 |
ATLANTIC
Major contenders: Florida State
Minor contenders: Clemson
Because Clemson blew a shot to beat FSU without Jameis Winston, and because FSU therefore had the tie-breaker, any hopes of Clemson winning the division ended when FSU pulled away from Louisville in the fourth quarter last Thursday night.
And like I've mentioned before, FSU is a hair lower in the numbers than it should be thanks to Winston missing the Clemson game (which has also helped Clemson to rank so high defensively) and Oklahoma State's offense tanking after losing quarterback J.W. Walsh. So if you're inclined, bump them up a bit when you look at the individual games below. Regardless, the 'Noles are heavy division favorites. It's just that next week's trip to Miami is far from an automatic win, especially if that front seven doesn't heal up and/or improve a bit.
COASTAL
Serious contenders: Duke
Minor contenders: Georgia Tech, Miami
This race isn't over by any means, but Duke is the clear favorite coming down the stretch. If the Blue Devils get upset -- maybe on the road against Syracuse or at home against Virginia Tech (and yeah, "Virginia Tech beats Duke" would be quite the upset at this point, as funny as those words sound) or bipolar UNC, then they have to hope Miami does indeed lose to FSU. The balance could still swing. But Duke owns the tiebreaker over Georgia Tech and is at least a 70 percent favorite in each remaining game.
All Projections
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 11 | 06-Nov-14 | Clemson | Wake Forest | 97.1% |
| 11 | 08-Nov-14 | Duke | Syracuse | 86.6% |
| 11 | 08-Nov-14 | Georgia Tech | NC State | 85.2% |
| 11 | 08-Nov-14 | Louisville | Boston College | 63.7% |
| 11 | 08-Nov-14 | Virginia | Florida State | 7.6% |
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Clemson | Georgia Tech | 43.0% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Florida State | Miami | 40.2% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Pittsburgh | North Carolina | 73.5% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Virginia Tech | Duke | 29.2% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Wake Forest | NC State | 17.6% |
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 13 | 20-Nov-14 | North Carolina | Duke | 6.3% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Boston College | Florida State | 14.8% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Miami | Virginia | 82.7% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Syracuse | Pittsburgh | 16.1% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Virginia Tech | Wake Forest | 89.8% |
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 14 | 28-Nov-14 | Virginia | Virginia Tech | 24.8% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | NC State | North Carolina | 58.3% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Pittsburgh | Miami | 10.2% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Syracuse | Boston College | 9.6% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Wake Forest | Duke | 2.6% |
Title Games
From today's playoff projections piece at the mothership:
Florida State vs. Duke: Florida State 75%
There is about a 14 percent chance that "12-1 ACC champion Duke" happens.
(And an 86 percent chance it doesn't.)
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