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Win projections
It's a huge, huge Saturday for three Big 12 teams. Baylor kicks off at Oklahoma at noon ET to determine whether we have a two-team Big 12 race (the TCU-KSU winner and Baylor), or whether the TCU-KSU winner becomes the predominant favorite down the stretch. Then, in the evening, TCU and KSU go at it.
| Team | F/+ Ranking | Proj. Conf. Wins | Last Week (Change) | With Week 11 win | With Week 11 loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU (4-1, 7-1) | 10 | 7.60 | 7.37 (+0.23) | 7.90 | 6.90 |
| Kansas State (5-0, 7-1) | 15 | 7.32 | 6.94 (+0.37) | 8.01 | 7.01 |
| Oklahoma (3-2, 6-2) | 6 | 6.77 | 6.69 (+0.08) | 6.96 | 5.96 |
| Baylor (4-1, 7-1) | 18 | 6.67 | 6.58 (+0.09) | 7.48 | 6.48 |
| West Virginia (4-2, 6-3) | 27 | 6.10 | 6.60 (-0.50) | 6.27 | 5.27 |
| Oklahoma State (3-3, 5-4) | 66 | 3.66 | 4.04 (-0.38) | ||
| Texas (3-3, 4-5) | 62 | 3.64 | 2.77 (+0.87) | 4.47 | 3.47 |
| Iowa State (0-5, 2-6) | 74 | 1.63 | 1.59 (+0.04) | 1.85 | 0.85 |
| Texas Tech (1-5, 3-6) | 80 | 1.36 | 2.13 (-0.77) | ||
| Kansas (0-5, 2-6) | 110 | 0.26 | 0.29 (-0.03) | 1.04 | 0.04 |
Major contenders: TCU, Kansas State
Minor contenders: Oklahoma, Baylor, WVU
Because Baylor's odds of winning in Norman aren't great, TCU and KSU get the obvious overall nod here. TCU's projected at the top since a) the Frogs have a 70% chance of beating KSU and b) KSU still has to play at Baylor and at WVU afterward. There's still a slight chance of a cluster of teams at 7-2, but as counterintuitive as it may sound, we may need KSU, the undefeated Big 12 team, to win to make that happen. If TCU doesn't lose to KSU, TCU probably isn't losing again.
All Projections
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 11 | 08-Nov-14 | Baylor | Oklahoma | 18.8% |
| 11 | 08-Nov-14 | Iowa State | Kansas | 77.6% |
| 11 | 08-Nov-14 | Kansas State | TCU | 30.5% |
| 11 | 08-Nov-14 | West Virginia | Texas | 82.9% |
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Oklahoma | Texas Tech | 98.5% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | TCU | Kansas | 98.6% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Texas | Oklahoma State | 40.1% |
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 13 | 20-Nov-14 | Kansas State | West Virginia | 61.3% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Kansas | Oklahoma | 1.4% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Oklahoma State | Baylor | 4.9% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Texas Tech | Iowa State | 29.3% |
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 14 | 27-Nov-14 | TCU | Texas | 93.0% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Baylor | Texas Tech | 94.5% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Kansas | Kansas State | 1.4% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | West Virginia | Iowa State | 87.7% |
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 15 | 06-Dec-14 | Iowa State | TCU | 1.6% |
| 15 | 06-Dec-14 | Kansas State | Baylor | 42.1% |
| 15 | 06-Dec-14 | Oklahoma State | Oklahoma | 1.4% |
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