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Updated Big 12 projections through 10 weeks

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Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Win projections

It's a huge, huge Saturday for three Big 12 teams. Baylor kicks off at Oklahoma at noon ET to determine whether we have a two-team Big 12 race (the TCU-KSU winner and Baylor), or whether the TCU-KSU winner becomes the predominant favorite down the stretch. Then, in the evening, TCU and KSU go at it.

Odds of Big 12 conference records
Team F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 11 win With Week 11 loss
TCU (4-1, 7-1) 10 7.60 7.37 (+0.23) 7.90 6.90
Kansas State (5-0, 7-1) 15 7.32 6.94 (+0.37) 8.01 7.01
Oklahoma (3-2, 6-2) 6 6.77 6.69 (+0.08) 6.96 5.96
Baylor (4-1, 7-1) 18 6.67 6.58 (+0.09) 7.48 6.48
West Virginia (4-2, 6-3) 27 6.10 6.60 (-0.50) 6.27 5.27
Oklahoma State (3-3, 5-4) 66 3.66 4.04 (-0.38)

Texas (3-3, 4-5) 62 3.64 2.77 (+0.87) 4.47 3.47
Iowa State (0-5, 2-6) 74 1.63 1.59 (+0.04) 1.85 0.85
Texas Tech (1-5, 3-6) 80 1.36 2.13 (-0.77)

Kansas (0-5, 2-6) 110 0.26 0.29 (-0.03) 1.04 0.04

Major contenders: TCU, Kansas State
Minor contenders: Oklahoma, Baylor, WVU

Because Baylor's odds of winning in Norman aren't great, TCU and KSU get the obvious overall nod here. TCU's projected at the top since a) the Frogs have a 70% chance of beating KSU and b) KSU still has to play at Baylor and at WVU afterward. There's still a slight chance of a cluster of teams at 7-2, but as counterintuitive as it may sound, we may need KSU, the undefeated Big 12 team, to win to make that happen. If TCU doesn't lose to KSU, TCU probably isn't losing again.

All Projections

Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
11 08-Nov-14 Baylor Oklahoma 18.8%
11 08-Nov-14 Iowa State Kansas 77.6%
11 08-Nov-14 Kansas State TCU 30.5%
11 08-Nov-14 West Virginia Texas 82.9%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
12 15-Nov-14 Oklahoma Texas Tech 98.5%
12 15-Nov-14 TCU Kansas 98.6%
12 15-Nov-14 Texas Oklahoma State 40.1%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
13 20-Nov-14 Kansas State West Virginia 61.3%
13 22-Nov-14 Kansas Oklahoma 1.4%
13 22-Nov-14 Oklahoma State Baylor 4.9%
13 22-Nov-14 Texas Tech Iowa State 29.3%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
14 27-Nov-14 TCU Texas 93.0%
14 29-Nov-14 Baylor Texas Tech 94.5%
14 29-Nov-14 Kansas Kansas State 1.4%
14 29-Nov-14 West Virginia Iowa State 87.7%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
15 06-Dec-14 Iowa State TCU 1.6%
15 06-Dec-14 Kansas State Baylor 42.1%
15 06-Dec-14 Oklahoma State Oklahoma 1.4%