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Updated SEC projections through 10 weeks

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Really, Georgia?

Rock M Nation's Paul Halfacre

Win projections

As a Missouri fan, I must ask you not to hold it against the Tigers if they win the East. If they do, despite being a top-35 or top-40 team (and nothing more) and a team that indeed lost to Indiana, realize that it's not their fault. Somebody is going to have to win it. If you want to get mad, get mad at Georgia for laying the biggest egg of the season on Saturday. Whereas Indiana had only about an 18 percent chance of beating Mizzou in Week 4, Florida had about a five percent chance of beating Georgia on Saturday. And now here we are.

Odds of SEC conference records
East F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 11 win With Week 11 loss
Missouri (4-1, 7-2) 35 5.83 5.29 (+0.54)

Georgia (4-2, 6-2) 20 5.08 6.20 (-1.13) 5.21 4.21
Florida (3-3, 4-3) 39 4.66 3.55 (+1.11) 4.74 3.74
Tennessee (1-4, 4-5) 37 3.30 3.11 (+0.20)

Kentucky (2-4, 5-4) 63 2.32 2.36 (-0.04) 3.19 2.19
South Carolina (2-5, 4-5) 49 2.26 2.76 (-0.50)

Vanderbilt (0-5, 3-6) 104 0.18 0.17 (+0.01)

West F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 11 win With Week 11 loss
Mississippi State (5-0, 8-0) 3 6.72 6.52 (+0.20)

Auburn (4-1, 7-1) 1 6.35 5.41 (+0.94) 6.36 5.36
Alabama (4-1, 7-1) 5 5.66 5.95 (-0.29) 6.06 5.06
Ole Miss (4-2, 7-2) 4 5.53 6.23 (-0.70)

LSU (3-2, 7-2) 9 5.15 5.02 (+0.13) 5.74 4.74
Texas A&M (2-3, 6-3) 61 2.35 2.45 (-0.10) 3.34 2.34
Arkansas (0-5, 4-5) 36 0.61 0.99 (-0.37)

EAST
Major contenders: Missouri, Georgia
Minor contenders: Florida

So basically, Missouri simply has to lose the same number of games (in three tries) as Georgia does (in two). If Georgia falls to Auburn, Missouri can fall to either Tennessee, Texas A&M, or Arkansas. If Georgia loses to both Kentucky and Auburn, Missouri can go 1-2 (which might introduce Florida into the race*). If Georgia wins out, Missouri has to win out.

The projections have Missouri basically winning 1.8 of three games while Georgia wins 1.1. Mizzou probably has a mulligan to give, but all three of its remaining games are pretty tightly projected.

* LOL, LET'S NOT INTRODUCE FLORIDA INTO THE RACE.

WEST
Serious contenders: Mississippi State, Auburn
Minor contenders: Alabama, Ole Miss

What a home stretch we've got lined up. Auburn just survived one huge road test and has two more (well, one huge one and one medium-sized one) to go. Mississippi State has two huge road tests. Alabama must survive Baton Rouge, then play great at home. Ole Miss ... well ... :(

That's all I've been able to really say about Ole Miss this week. Just :(.

If 7-1 (or better) is the mark to hit, Mississippi State has the best chances (59%) of getting there. But the Bulldogs are barely over 50% in that regard, and Auburn (44%) isn't far behind.

All Projections

Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
11 08-Nov-14 Alabama LSU 60.2%
11 08-Nov-14 Florida Vanderbilt 92.1%
11 08-Nov-14 Georgia Kentucky 86.9%
11 08-Nov-14 Texas A&M Auburn 1.4%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
12 15-Nov-14 Auburn Georgia 79.9%
12 15-Nov-14 Kentucky Tennessee 19.2%
12 15-Nov-14 LSU Arkansas 81.4%
12 15-Nov-14 Mississippi State Alabama 38.4%
12 15-Nov-14 Missouri Texas A&M 72.8%
12 15-Nov-14 South Carolina Florida 26.3%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
13 22-Nov-14 Missouri Tennessee 42.3%
13 22-Nov-14 Ole Miss Arkansas 89.2%
13 22-Nov-14 Vanderbilt Mississippi State 1.4%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
14 27-Nov-14 LSU Texas A&M 93.0%
14 28-Nov-14 Arkansas Missouri 33.4%
14 29-Nov-14 Auburn Alabama 57.1%
14 29-Nov-14 Mississippi State Ole Miss 36.9%
14 29-Nov-14 Tennessee Vanderbilt 92.3%

Title Games

From today's playoff projections piece at the mothership:

With Georgia's rather inexplicable loss to Florida, suddenly Missouri has a solid chance of winning the SEC East. That opens up a few more possibilities here, none of them particularly good for the East champion:

Mississippi State vs. Missouri: Mississippi State 91%
Mississippi State vs. Georgia: Mississippi State 80%
Auburn vs. Missouri: Auburn 94%
Auburn vs. Georgia: Auburn 85%
Alabama vs. Missouri: Alabama 90%
Alabama vs. Georgia: Alabama 79%

Georgia isn't as bad as it looked against Florida, but the Dawgs would only provide slightly more resistance than a Missouri team with a great defense and a bad offense. Either way, the West champion is probably rolling.