2011 Covariance Rankings, End Of Regular Season

It's time to update one of my favorite measures, Covariance; it is otherwise known as the "Playing Up To Your Competition" measure. Here's an explanation:

[Covariance is] a look at which teams play better against good teams and which teams play better against worse. The higher the COVAR figure, the more likely you are to rack up great numbers against lesser teams but perform at a lower level against good ones. I played with this a bit this summer, but I'm still figuring out what it could mean in terms of predictive value. Teams like No. 26 Ohio State and No. 43 Missouri are on the high side (meaning they dominate when they have an advantage but don't play up to a higher level of competition), while No. 22 Miami and No. 42 Texas Tech have tended to play better against better teams. This doesn't mean the "playing up to competition" teams are better -- it could mean you just end up with competitive losses against good teams and competitive wins/losses against lesser ones -- but it is interesting.

For your end-of-regular-season look at Covariance, I'm adding offensive and defensive ratings to this.

• Covariance compares a team's Adj. Scoring Margin in a given game to its opponent's F/+ rating.
• Off. Covariance compares an offense's Adj. Points in a given game to its opponent's Def. F/+ rating.
• Def. Covariance compares a defense's Adj. Points Allowed in a given game to its opponent's Off. F/+ rating.

Off. and Def. Covariance won't add up to the total Covariance number because it is comparing different things.

Anyway, this really is an interesting way to look at teams. First, you've got teams like Army and SMU, which spent the season playing perfectly well against bad teams and laying down versus good ones. Then you've got Missouri, which played better defense against worse offenses ... and better offense against better defenses. (This may have had something to do with the fact that Henry Josey missed games versus two bad defenses in Texas Tech and Kansas.) Then you've got Mississippi State, the anti-Missouri.

Then you've got Northwestern, Clemson and Miami, which saved its best efforts for its best opponents and suffered some letdowns otherwise.

The higher the rank, the better a team played against poor competition. I'm still not sure the best way to "rank" these teams in this sense.

Full list, as always, after the jump.