College football F/+ bowl picks

Mark A. Cunningham

Football Outsiders picks and projections for the 2013-14 college football bowl season.

A couple of years ago, the F/+ picks just destroyed bowl season ... laid waste to it. I got excited and determined that perhaps by the bowl season, when there's enough data in place and momentum doesn't really matter (since teams typically have 2-5 weeks between games), that's when the F/+ picks are going to shine.

And then the next year the bowl picks hit at like 42% or something awful. Whatever. Here they are regardless.

  • Week 15
    New: 8-7 (53%)
    Old: 8-7 (53%)
  • TOTAL
    New: 396-395-16 (50%)
    Old: 358-334-14 (52%)

NEW METHOD

NOTE: I've tweaked (a.k.a. made better) the win probability numbers, and they seem a lot more accurate at the high end. Of course, that doesn't matter in bowl season, when few games actually reach that high end. Still, FYI.

Date Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Favorite's
chance of
winning outright
Pick
12/21/13 2:00 PM ESPN Washington State vs. Colorado State 4 Washington State by 3.6 (24.7 - 21.1) 64.1% Colorado State
12/21/13 3:30 PM ABC Fresno State vs. USC -6 USC by 13.9 (32.4 - 18.5) 81.7% USC
12/21/13 5:30 PM ESPN Buffalo vs. San Diego State 1 Buffalo by 8.0 (24.4 - 16.4) 72.0% Buffalo
12/21/13 9:00 PM ESPN Tulane vs. UL-Lafayette 0 Tulane by 4.8 (24.4 - 19.6) 66.6% Tulane
12/23/13 2:00 PM ESPN East Carolina vs. Ohio 14 East Carolina by 24.6 (44.1 - 19.5) 92.4% East Carolina
12/24/13 8:00 PM ESPN Boise State vs. Oregon State -3 Boise State by 4.2 (31.3 - 27.0) 64.9% Boise State
12/26/13 6:00 PM ESPN Pittsburgh vs. Bowling Green -6 Bowling Green by 5.3 (29.0 - 23.7) 67.3% Pittsburgh
12/26/13 9:30 PM ESPN Utah State vs. Northern Illinois -1.5 Utah State by 9.6 (25.6 - 16.0) 74.7% Utah State
12/27/13 2:30 PM ESPN Marshall vs. Maryland 3 Marshall by 3.9 (35.1 - 31.1) 63.5% Marshall
12/27/13 6:00 PM ESPN Syracuse vs. Minnesota -4.5 Minnesota by 9.1 (26.9 - 17.8) 73.4% Minnesota
12/27/13 9:30 PM ESPN BYU vs. Washington -3 Washington by 4.9 (26.8 - 21.9) 65.9% Washington
12/28/13 12:00 PM ESPN Rutgers vs. Notre Dame -15.5 Notre Dame by 21.8 (38.9 - 17.1) 92.4% Notre Dame
12/28/13 3:20 PM ESPN Cincinnati vs. North Carolina -3 North Carolina by 6.7 (32.8 - 26.1) 69.6% North Carolina
12/28/13 6:45 PM ESPN Miami-FL vs. Louisville -3.5 Louisville by 6.0 (39.1 - 33.0) 68.7% Louisville
12/28/13 10:15 PM ESPN Michigan vs. Kansas State -3.5 Kansas State by 1.7 (29.0 - 27.3) 59.7% Michigan
12/30/13 11:45 AM ESPN Middle Tennessee vs. Navy -6 Navy by 4.3 (36.5 - 32.2) 65.4% Middle Tennessee
12/30/13 3:15 PM ESPN Ole Miss vs. Georgia Tech 3 Georgia Tech by 1.2 (30.3 - 29.2) 58.1% Georgia Tech
12/30/13 6:45 PM ESPN Oregon vs. Texas 14 Oregon by 15.9 (41.1 - 25.2) 82.9% Oregon
12/30/13 10:15 PM ESPN Arizona State vs. Texas Tech 14 Arizona State by 24.0 (49.6 - 25.6) 91.4% Arizona State
12/31/13 12:30 PM ESPN Arizona vs. Boston College 7.5 Arizona by 9.4 (36.5 - 27.1) 73.6% Arizona
12/31/13 2:00 PM CBS Virginia Tech vs. UCLA -7 UCLA by 3.2 (18.8 - 15.6) 62.3% Virginia Tech
12/31/13 4:00 PM ESPN Rice vs. Mississippi State -7 Mississippi State by 3.7 (24.2 - 20.5) 63.6% Rice
12/31/13 8:00 PM ESPN Duke vs. Texas A&M -12 Texas A&M by 7.1 (42.1 - 35.0) 69.7% Duke
1/1/14 12:00 PM ESPN2 Nebraska vs. Georgia -9 Georgia by 11.7 (37.5 - 25.8) 78.2% Georgia
1/1/14 12:00 PM ESPNU UNLV vs. North Texas -6.5 North Texas by 14.9 (29.4 - 14.5) 83.0% North Texas
1/1/14 1:00 PM ESPN Iowa vs. LSU -7.5 LSU by 5.7 (30.6 - 24.9) 68.2% Iowa
1/1/14 1:00 PM ABC Wisconsin vs. South Carolina 1 Wisconsin by 2.7 (26.1 - 23.4) 61.9% Wisconsin
1/1/14 5:00 PM ESPN Stanford vs. Michigan State 4.5 Stanford by 8.7 (19.7 - 11.0) 73.1% Stanford
1/1/14 8:30 PM ESPN Central Florida vs. Baylor -17 Baylor by 9.4 (40.4 - 31.0) 73.6% Central Florida
1/2/14 8:30 PM ESPN Oklahoma vs. Alabama -15 Alabama by 17.9 (33.0 - 15.1) 87.8% Alabama
1/3/14 7:30 PM Fox Oklahoma State vs. Missouri -1 Oklahoma State by 3.2 (25.6 - 22.4) 62.2% Oklahoma State
1/3/14 8:30 PM ESPN Clemson vs. Ohio State -3 Ohio State by 5.7 (37.8 - 32.1) 66.8% Ohio State
1/4/14 1:00 PM ESPN Vanderbilt vs. Houston 3 Houston by 4.0 (27.1 - 23.2) 63.9% Houston
1/5/14 9:00 PM ESPN Arkansas State vs. Ball State -9 Ball State by 14.8 (42.0 - 27.2) 81.2% Ball State
1/6/14 8:30 PM ESPN Florida State vs. Auburn 8.5 Florida State by 11.1 (30.4 - 19.3) 79.4% Florida State

OLD METHOD

Day Time (ET) Game Spread OLD Prediction OLD Pick
12/21/13 2:00 PM Washington State vs. Colorado State 4 Washington State by 3.7 Colorado State
12/21/13 3:30 PM Fresno State vs. USC -6 USC by 13.4 USC
12/21/13 5:30 PM Buffalo vs. San Diego State 1 Buffalo by 7.6 Buffalo
12/21/13 9:00 PM Tulane vs. UL-Lafayette 0 Tulane by 4.9 Tulane
12/23/13 2:00 PM East Carolina vs. Ohio 14 East Carolina by 22.2 East Carolina
12/24/13 8:00 PM Boise State vs. Oregon State -3 Boise State by 4.1 Boise State
12/26/13 6:00 PM Pittsburgh vs. Bowling Green -6 Bowling Green by 5.2 Pittsburgh
12/26/13 9:30 PM Utah State vs. Northern Illinois -1.5 Utah State by 9.1 Utah State
12/27/13 2:30 PM Marshall vs. Maryland 3 Marshall by 3.4 Marshall
12/27/13 6:00 PM Syracuse vs. Minnesota -4.5 Minnesota by 8.4 Minnesota
12/27/13 9:30 PM BYU vs. Washington -3 Washington by 4.6 Washington
12/28/13 12:00 PM Rutgers vs. Notre Dame -15.5 Notre Dame by 22.2 Notre Dame
12/28/13 3:20 PM Cincinnati vs. North Carolina -3 North Carolina by 6.4 North Carolina
12/28/13 6:45 PM Miami-FL vs. Louisville -3.5 Louisville by 6.0 Louisville
12/28/13 10:15 PM Michigan vs. Kansas State -3.5 Kansas State by 1.7 Michigan
12/30/13 11:45 AM Middle Tennessee vs. Navy -6 Navy by 4.3 Middle Tennessee
12/30/13 3:15 PM Ole Miss vs. Georgia Tech 3 Georgia Tech by 1.0 Georgia Tech
12/30/13 6:45 PM Oregon vs. Texas 14 Oregon by 14.2 Oregon
12/30/13 10:15 PM Arizona State vs. Texas Tech 14 Arizona State by 21.2 Arizona State
12/31/13 12:30 PM Arizona vs. Boston College 7.5 Arizona by 8.5 Arizona
12/31/13 2:00 PM Virginia Tech vs. UCLA -7 UCLA by 2.9 Virginia Tech
12/31/13 4:00 PM Rice vs. Mississippi State -7 Mississippi State by 3.5 Rice
12/31/13 8:00 PM Duke vs. Texas A&M -12 Texas A&M by 6.5 Duke
1/1/14 12:00 PM Nebraska vs. Georgia -9 Georgia by 11.1 Georgia
1/1/14 12:00 PM UNLV vs. North Texas -6.5 North Texas by 14.3 North Texas
1/1/14 1:00 PM Iowa vs. LSU -7.5 LSU by 5.7 Iowa
1/1/14 1:00 PM Wisconsin vs. South Carolina 1 Wisconsin by 2.7 Wisconsin
1/1/14 5:00 PM Stanford vs. Michigan State 4.5 Stanford by 8.3 Stanford
1/1/14 8:30 PM Central Florida vs. Baylor -17 Baylor by 8.5 Central Florida
1/2/14 8:30 PM Oklahoma vs. Alabama -15 Alabama by 17.9 Alabama
1/3/14 7:30 PM Oklahoma State vs. Missouri -1 Oklahoma State by 2.8 Oklahoma State
1/3/14 8:30 PM Clemson vs. Ohio State -3 Ohio State by 5.0 Ohio State
1/4/14 1:00 PM Vanderbilt vs. Houston 3 Houston by 3.6 Houston
1/5/14 9:00 PM Arkansas State vs. Ball State -9 Ball State by 13.0 Ball State
1/6/14 8:30 PM Florida State vs. Auburn 8.5 Florida State by 11.9 Florida State
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