Picks

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Fanshot

posted by Bill C., Feb 12, 2013

Overall, of the 697 regular season games involving IA opponents in 2012, the point spread differed from the actual result by an average of 12.10 points. While that may intuitively seem high considering the reverence with which the point spread is regarded, keep in mind that the smallest amount the point spread can differ from the actual result is zero, while the largest amount is theoretically infinite (if realistically about 55). Consider that it takes about six reasonably accurate spreads (say a difference of five points) to bring the huge UCLA/Arizona outlier down to the twelve point average.

— From an interesting look at Vegas vs. college football by the good folks at College Football by the Numbers.

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2012 Bowl Picks

Bill C. Dec 13 2012, 11:25a

From Nevada-Arizona to Notre Dame-Alabama.

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F/+ Picks, Week 14

Bill C. Nov 29 2012, 12:19p

Championship Week commences!

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F/+ Picks, Week 13

Bill C. Nov 22 2012, 8:53a

Another good streak begins?

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F/+ Picks, Week 12

Bill C. Nov 15 2012, 9:48a

Picks and projections for Week 12 of the 2012 college football season.

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F/+ Picks, Week 11

Bill C. Nov 8 2012, 12:16p

Here's to a rebound.

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F/+ Picks, Week 10

Bill C. Nov 1 2012, 9:00a

Picks and projections for Week 10 of the college football season.

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F/+ Picks, Week 9

Bill C. Oct 25 2012, 9:50a

Picks and projections for Week 9 of the 2012 college football season.

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F/+ Picks, Week 8: I smell craziness

Bill C. Oct 18 2012, 12:37p

Lots of road favorites? I smell a crazy week coming...

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F/+ Picks, Week 7

Bill C. Oct 11 2012, 10:14a

Picks and projections for Week 7 of the 2012 college football season.

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F/+ Picks, Week 6

Bill C. Oct 4 2012, 9:00a

Projections for Week 6 of the 2012 college football season.

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F/+ Picks, Week 5

Bill C. Sep 27 2012, 11:00a

Picks for Week 5 of the 2012 college football season.

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F/+ Picks, Week 4

Bill C. Sep 20 2012, 10:02a

Projections for Week 3 of the college football season.

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F/+ Picks: Week 3

Bill C. Sep 13 2012, 1:16p

Picks for Week 3 of the college football season.

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F/+ Picks: Week 2

Bill C. Sep 6 2012, 2:55p

College football picks for Week 2 of the 2012 season.

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F/+ Picks: Week 1

Bill C. Aug 30 2012, 3:32p

Alright, the F/+ projections have been updated; they will be revealed tomorrow in my Varsity Numbers column at Football Outsiders. In the meantime, sigh, it's time to unroll the Week 1 picks.