This week’s Five Factors box scores are up! Check out all the results here. Week 11’s superior performances in each category are below.
Top 5 success rate margins (vs. FBS)
- Auburn (+41% vs. Liberty)
- LSU (+37% vs. Rice)
- Georgia (+34% vs. UMass)
- Iowa (+32% vs. Illinois)
- Missouri (+31% vs. Tennessee)
Four SEC teams led the way here, which isn’t incredibly surprising considering the, shall we say, weaker nature of the SEC’s SoCon Saturday schedule. But a) this doesn’t include any FCS opponents, and b) Mizzou basically treated Tennessee like an FCS opponent. Goodness.
Top 5 yards per play margins (vs. FBS)
- LSU (+4.6 vs. Rice)
- Marshall (+4.4 vs. UTSA)
- Mississippi State (+4.1 vs. Arkansas)
- Georgia Southern (+4.1 vs. Coastal Carolina)
- Georgia (+4.1 vs. UMass)
Meanwhile, Mississippi State treated Arkansas with even more disdain.
Top 5 field position margins (vs. FBS)
- UL-Lafayette (+21.3 vs. South Alabama)
- Auburn (+21.1 vs. Liberty)
- WKU (+20.1 vs. UTEP)
- Kansas State (+18.8 vs. Texas Tech)
- Penn State (+18.2 vs. Rutgers)
I saw the KSU-Tech score, and my first thought was “Oh man, I bet KSU’s field position numbers were nuts.”
Top 5 points per scoring opportunity margins (vs. FBS)
- Mississippi State (+5.0 vs. Arkansas)
- Clemson (+5.0 vs. Duke)
- NC State (+3.8 vs. Louisville)
- LSU (+3.7 vs. Rice)
- BYU (+3.6 vs. NMSU)
Clemson entered the Duke game in the top 10 in both offensive points per scoring opportunity (eighth) and defensive points allowed per scoring opportunity (first). I’m thinking that won’t change this week.
Top 5 turnovers luck margins (vs. FBS)
- Arizona State (+5.8 vs. Oregon)
- Troy (+4.6 vs. Texas State)
- Temple (+3.2 vs. USF)
- WKU (+2.6 vs. UTEP)
- Akron (+2.4 vs. BGSU)
Translation: ASU had a turnover margin that was an incredible +5.8 ahead of where national averages suggest it should have been. The previous high for 2018 was plus-5.1 (Virginia Tech vs. FSU and North Texas vs. Arkansas).
There were seven fumbles in the game, five by ASU, and the Sun Devils recovered six of them. Plus, while Oregon defensed (intercepted or broke up) 12 passes to ASU’s six (which would suggest likely INT numbers of 2-3 for Oregon and 1 for ASU), ASU intercepted two passes to Oregon’s zero.
As each turnover is worth approximately five points, that means the Sun Devils enjoyed about a 29-point boost thanks to turnovers luck. In a 31-29 loss. If you’re wondering why they fell 12 spots in a near-road-upset, that should hopefully clue you in.