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Pac-12 championship: The Colorado-Washington advanced stats tale of the tape

Colorado Buffaloes (10-2) vs. Washington Huskies (11-1)

December 02, 2016 ( 9:00 PM ET, Fox )
Spread: Washington -7.5
S&P+ Projection: Washington (31.3-24.8)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Colorado Washington
S&P+ (Rk) 15 6
Category Colorado offense Washington defense Washington offense Colorado defense
Yards per play (Rk) 5.56 (66) 4.53 (8) 7.12 (4) 4.50 (7)
Yards per game (Rk) 475.3 (25) 331.0 (18) 489.2 (19) 324.5 (14)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.48 (47) 1.43 (11) 3.56 (4) 1.32 (9)
Category Colorado offense Washington defense Washington offense Colorado defense
S&P+ (Rk) 34.8 (34) 18.6 (12) 40.7 (4) 18.1 (10)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 98.9 (82) 129.3 (6) 113.0 (29) 118.7 (19)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 121.6 (20) 121.8 (15) 138.4 (2) 125.4 (10)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 106.0 (51) 127.7 (6) 128.4 (2) 117.9 (15)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 115.5 (35) 124.9 (16) 118.1 (26) 133.0 (9)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 121.6 (25) 135.8 (8) 131.0 (10) 129.3 (13)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 116.1 (33) 121.9 (16) 122.9 (11) 133.0 (10)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 94.9 (88) 113.9 (25) 123.5 (18) 117.8 (18)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 85.0 (118) 106.5 (42) 95.5 (95) 137.7 (3)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Colorado

  1. Third Down S&P+ (No. 6 defense vs. No. 93 offense)
  2. Run Stuffs (No. 40 offense vs. No. 98 defense)
  3. Q4 S&P+ (No. 18 vs. No. 71 )
  4. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 67 defense vs. No. 111 offense)
  5. Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 7 defense vs. No. 41 offense)

Washington

  1. Run Stuffs (No. 22 offense vs. No. 128 defense)
  2. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 3 defense vs. No. 93 offense)
  3. Rushing S&P+ (No. 6 defense vs. No. 82 offense)
  4. Third Down S&P+ (No. 8 defense vs. No. 79 offense)
  5. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 5 defense vs. No. 70 offense)
Five Factors
Category Colorado offense Washington defense Washington offense Colorado defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.22 (86) 1.09 (2) 1.43 (9) 1.31 (97)
EFFICIENCY 44.9% (38) 36.4% (20) 52.9% (2) 34.3% (6)
FIELD POSITION 29.0 (81) 30.0 (85) 31.6 (28) 30.0 (84)
FINISHING DRIVES 4.9 (28) 3.5 (9) 5.5 (5) 3.4 (7)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Colorado 10.76 (2)
Washington 8.61 (8)
ACTUAL
Colorado 10 (8)
Washington 18 (1)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Colorado offense Washington offense
Adj. Pace 11.0 (7) -5.5 (108)
Plays per game 85.4 (7) 68.7 (112)
Possessions per game 14.0 (21) 12.6 (86)
Std. Downs Run Rate 63.5% (41) 53.1% (99)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 27.4% (107) 33.6% (66)
% of solo tackles 81.6% (16) 78.2% (32)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Colorado defense Washington defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 54.4% (113) 56.6% (96)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 33.6% (67) 28.3% (107)
Overall Havoc Rate 18.8% (20) 17.0% (37)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 8.5% (75) 9.1% (56)
DB Havoc Rate 10.0% (1) 7.9% (23)
PD to INC 37.3% (23) 31.0% (90)

When Colorado has the ball…

Standard Downs
Colorado Offense Washington Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 106.0 51 127.7 6 Washington
Standard Downs Success Rate 49.2 42 38.9 7 Washington
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.08 85 1.13 30 Washington big
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.12 45 2.77 37
SD Sack Rate 5.4% 77 6.9% 22 Washington big
Passing Downs
Colorado Offense Washington Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 115.5 35 124.9 16 Washington
Passing Downs Success Rate 35.0 29 30.9 62 Colorado
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.70 77 1.89 1 Washington big
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.51 44 3.13 52
PD Sack Rate 8.1% 70 14.7% 5 Washington big

When Washington has the ball…

Standard Downs
Washington Offense Colorado Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 128.4 2 117.9 15 Washington
Standard Downs Success Rate 58.4 1 40.3 13 Washington
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.32 4 1.02 78 Washington big
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.51 3 3.40 118 Washington big
SD Sack Rate 3.6% 37 5.9% 43
Passing Downs
Washington Offense Colorado Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 118.1 26 133.0 9 Colorado
Passing Downs Success Rate 37.5 16 23.1 8
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.90 26 1.27 104 Washington big
PD Line Yards per Carry 2.49 118 2.97 43 Colorado big
PD Sack Rate 10.6% 111 7.6% 67 Colorado
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Colorado Sefo Liufau 6'4, 230 SR 179 277 2150 11 3 64.6% 19 6.4% 6.9
Colorado Steven Montez 6'5, 225 FR 74 119 957 9 4 62.2% 8 6.3% 7.1
Colorado Jordan Gehrke 6'1, 200 SR 4 7 38 0 0 57.1% 0 0.0% 5.4
Washington Jake Browning 6'2, 209 SO 214 329 3162 40 7 65.0% 18 5.2% 8.9
Washington K.J. Carta-Samuels 6'2, 219 SO 9 13 104 3 0 69.2% 1 7.1% 6.9
Washington
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Colorado Phillip Lindsay TB 5'8, 190 JR 211 1136 15 5.4 4.8 40.3%
Colorado Sefo Liufau QB 6'4, 230 SR 128 590 7 4.6 2.8 40.6%
Colorado Kyle Evans TB 5'6, 175 SO 85 346 3 4.1 2.7 36.5%
Colorado Steven Montez QB 6'5, 225 FR 40 277 1 6.9 5.1 52.5%
Washington Myles Gaskin TB 5'10, 195 SO 200 1183 10 5.9 5.1 44.0%
Washington Lavon Coleman TB 5'11, 228 JR 89 735 6 8.3 8.5 50.6%
Washington Jomon Dotson TB 5'10, 174 SO 56 257 1 4.6 4.2 37.5%
Washington Jake Browning QB 6'2, 209 SO 36 143 4 4.0 2.9 47.2%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Colorado Devin Ross WR 5'9, 180 JR 101 65 758 5 11.7 7.5 64.4%
Colorado Shay Fields WR 5'11, 180 JR 82 50 819 9 16.4 10.0 61.0%
Colorado Bryce Bobo WR 6'2, 190 JR 60 41 523 2 12.8 8.7 68.3%
Colorado Phillip Lindsay TB 5'8, 190 JR 52 45 398 1 8.8 7.7 86.5%
Colorado Jay MacIntyre WR 5'10, 190 SO 38 29 374 1 12.9 9.8 76.3%
Colorado Kabion Ento WR 6'3, 180 JR 15 8 174 2 21.8 11.6 53.3%
Colorado Kyle Evans TB 5'6, 175 SO 13 7 101 0 14.4 7.8 53.8%
Washington John Ross WR 5'11, 190 JR 104 72 1071 16 14.9 10.3 69.2%
Washington Dante Pettis WR 6'1, 188 JR 65 49 787 14 16.1 12.1 75.4%
Washington Chico McClatcher WR 5'7, 179 SO 43 28 569 5 20.3 13.2 65.1%
Washington Darrell Daniels TE 6'4, 246 SR 25 16 292 2 18.3 11.7 64.0%
Washington Aaron Fuller WR 5'10, 198 FR 24 14 157 2 11.2 6.5 58.3%
Washington Myles Gaskin TB 5'10, 195 SO 17 13 73 1 5.6 4.3 76.5%
Washington Andre Baccellia WR 5'10, 171 FR 10 6 83 1 13.8 8.3 60.0%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Colorado Kenneth Olugbode ILB 6'1, 220 SR 73.0 11.5% 5.5 2.0 2 2 1 1
Colorado Chidobe Awuzie DB 6'0, 205 SR 50.5 8.0% 6.0 4.0 1 9 2 0
Colorado Rick Gamboa ILB 6'0, 230 SO 50.5 8.0% 3.0 0.0 1 3 1 0
Colorado Afolabi Laguda DB 6'1, 205 JR 50.5 8.0% 1.0 0.0 1 3 0 1
Colorado Jimmie Gilbert OLB 6'5, 230 SR 49.0 7.7% 12.0 9.0 0 2 6 0
Colorado Tedric Thompson DB 6'1, 205 SR 47.5 7.5% 3.0 0.0 7 14 0 0
Colorado Ryan Moeller DB 6'1, 215 JR 38.5 6.1% 2.0 0.0 0 1 2 0
Colorado Addison Gillam ILB 6'3, 230 JR 32.5 5.1% 5.0 4.0 0 0 1 0
Colorado Jordan Carrell DE 6'3, 300 SR 30.5 4.8% 6.0 5.0 0 0 0 0
Colorado Josh Tupou DT 6'3, 325 SR 30.5 4.8% 4.0 2.0 0 0 0 0
Colorado Samson Kafovalu DT 6'4, 295 SR 30.5 4.8% 2.5 2.0 0 0 0 0
Colorado Isaiah Oliver DB 6'1, 190 SO 23.0 3.6% 0.0 0.0 1 5 1 0
Colorado Ahkello Witherspoon DB 6'3, 195 SR 19.0 3.0% 0.0 0.0 1 19 1 0
Washington Azeem Victor LB 6'3, 230 JR 56.0 8.6% 3.0 0.0 0 1 1 1
Washington Budda Baker DB 5'10, 192 JR 53.0 8.1% 9.0 2.0 2 3 1 0
Washington Keishawn Bierria LB 6'1, 221 JR 49.5 7.6% 4.0 2.0 0 2 2 0
Washington JoJo McIntosh DB 6'1, 209 SO 43.5 6.7% 0.5 0.0 0 2 2 0
Washington Taylor Rapp DB 6'0, 202 FR 34.0 5.2% 0.0 0.0 2 2 1 0
Washington Connor O'Brien OLB 6'3, 232 JR 29.5 4.5% 6.5 3.0 1 0 0 0
Washington Sidney Jones DB 6'0, 181 JR 29.5 4.5% 2.5 0.0 3 6 1 0
Washington Ben Burr-Kirven LB 6'0, 214 SO 28.5 4.4% 0.0 0.0 1 1 0 0
Washington Psalm Wooching OLB 6'4, 231 SR 28.0 4.3% 6.0 5.0 0 1 1 0
Washington Vita Vea DL 6'5, 332 SO 27.5 4.2% 5.5 4.0 0 2 1 0
Washington Kevin King DB 6'3, 192 SR 26.5 4.1% 2.5 0.0 2 11 0 0
Washington Greg Gaines DL 6'2, 318 SO 23.5 3.6% 7.5 3.5 0 0 0 0
Washington Elijah Qualls DL 6'1, 321 JR 23.0 3.5% 5.0 3.0 0 0 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Colorado Alex Kinney 6'1, 205 SO 59 42.2 4 22 13 59.3%
Washington Tristan Vizcaino 6'2, 206 JR 38 39.5 5 7 9 42.1%
Washington Jake Browning 6'2, 209 SO 2 36.0 0 0 1 50.0%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Colorado Chris Graham 6'3, 235 JR 48 61.7 21 43.8% 1 3 0 0
Colorado Diego Gonzalez 6'0, 215 SR 19 65.0 16 84.2% 0 0 0 0
Washington Tristan Vizcaino 6'2, 206 JR 93 59.0 36 38.7% 2 3 0 0
Washington Cameron Van Winkle 5'10, 186 SR 2 63.0 1 50.0% 0 0 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Colorado Davis Price 6'2, 190 FR 25-26 4-6 66.7%
Colorado Chris Graham 6'3, 235 JR 8-10 9-13 69.2%
Washington Cameron Van Winkle 5'10, 186 SR 69-70 14-18 77.8%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Colorado Anthony Julmisse 6'1, 185 FR 14 21.2 0 0 0 (0)
Colorado Dylan Keeney 6'6, 220 SO 1 9.0 0 1 0 (0)
Washington John Ross 5'11, 190 JR 12 26.8 1 0 0 (0)
Washington Austin Joyner 5'10, 190 FR 8 12.3 0 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Colorado Jay MacIntyre 5'10, 190 SO 17 8.9 0 11 2 (2)
Colorado Isaiah Oliver 6'1, 190 SO 13 12.4 1 7 0 (0)
Washington Dante Pettis 6'1, 188 JR 22 12.0 2 22 2 (1)
Washington Aaron Fuller 5'10, 198 FR 1 5.0 0 3 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics