Pac-12 championship: The Colorado-Washington advanced stats tale of the tape

Colorado Buffaloes (10-2) vs. Washington Huskies (11-1)

December 02, 2016 ( 9:00 PM ET, Fox )

Spread: Washington -7.5

S&P+ Projection: Washington (31.3-24.8)

_{Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.}

The Basics

Category	Colorado		Washington
S&P+ (Rk)	15		6
Category	Colorado offense	Washington defense	Washington offense	Colorado defense
Yards per play (Rk)	5.56 (66)	4.53 (8)	7.12 (4)	4.50 (7)
Yards per game (Rk)	475.3 (25)	331.0 (18)	489.2 (19)	324.5 (14)
Points per possession (Rk)	2.48 (47)	1.43 (11)	3.56 (4)	1.32 (9)
Category	Colorado offense	Washington defense	Washington offense	Colorado defense
S&P+ (Rk)	34.8 (34)	18.6 (12)	40.7 (4)	18.1 (10)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk)	98.9 (82)	129.3 (6)	113.0 (29)	118.7 (19)
Passing S&P+ (Rk)	121.6 (20)	121.8 (15)	138.4 (2)	125.4 (10)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk)	106.0 (51)	127.7 (6)	128.4 (2)	117.9 (15)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk)	115.5 (35)	124.9 (16)	118.1 (26)	133.0 (9)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk)	121.6 (25)	135.8 (8)	131.0 (10)	129.3 (13)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)	116.1 (33)	121.9 (16)	122.9 (11)	133.0 (10)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)	94.9 (88)	113.9 (25)	123.5 (18)	117.8 (18)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)	85.0 (118)	106.5 (42)	95.5 (95)	137.7 (3)

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

Colorado

1. Third Down S&P+ (No. 6 defense vs. No. 93 offense)
2. Run Stuffs (No. 40 offense vs. No. 98 defense)
3. Q4 S&P+ (No. 18 vs. No. 71 )
4. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 67 defense vs. No. 111 offense)
5. Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 7 defense vs. No. 41 offense)

Washington

1. Run Stuffs (No. 22 offense vs. No. 128 defense)
2. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 3 defense vs. No. 93 offense)
3. Rushing S&P+ (No. 6 defense vs. No. 82 offense)
4. Third Down S&P+ (No. 8 defense vs. No. 79 offense)
5. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 5 defense vs. No. 70 offense)

Five Factors

Category	Colorado offense	Washington defense	Washington offense	Colorado defense
EXPLOSIVENESS	1.22 (86)	1.09 (2)	1.43 (9)	1.31 (97)
EFFICIENCY	44.9% (38)	36.4% (20)	52.9% (2)	34.3% (6)
FIELD POSITION	29.0 (81)	30.0 (85)	31.6 (28)	30.0 (84)
FINISHING DRIVES	4.9 (28)	3.5 (9)	5.5 (5)	3.4 (7)
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED: Colorado 10.76 (2) Washington 8.61 (8)		ACTUAL Colorado 10 (8) Washington 18 (1)

Offensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Colorado offense	Washington offense
Adj. Pace	11.0 (7)	-5.5 (108)
Plays per game	85.4 (7)	68.7 (112)
Possessions per game	14.0 (21)	12.6 (86)
Std. Downs Run Rate	63.5% (41)	53.1% (99)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	27.4% (107)	33.6% (66)
% of solo tackles	81.6% (16)	78.2% (32)

Defensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Colorado defense	Washington defense
Std. Downs Run Rate	54.4% (113)	56.6% (96)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	33.6% (67)	28.3% (107)
Overall Havoc Rate	18.8% (20)	17.0% (37)
Front 7 Havoc Rate	8.5% (75)	9.1% (56)
DB Havoc Rate	10.0% (1)	7.9% (23)
PD to INC	37.3% (23)	31.0% (90)

When Colorado has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Colorado Offense		Washington Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	106.0	51	127.7	6	Washington
Standard Downs Success Rate	49.2	42	38.9	7	Washington
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.08	85	1.13	30	Washington big
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.12	45	2.77	37
SD Sack Rate	5.4%	77	6.9%	22	Washington big

Passing Downs

	Colorado Offense		Washington Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	115.5	35	124.9	16	Washington
Passing Downs Success Rate	35.0	29	30.9	62	Colorado
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.70	77	1.89	1	Washington big
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.51	44	3.13	52
PD Sack Rate	8.1%	70	14.7%	5	Washington big

When Washington has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Washington Offense		Colorado Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	128.4	2	117.9	15	Washington
Standard Downs Success Rate	58.4	1	40.3	13	Washington
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.32	4	1.02	78	Washington big
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.51	3	3.40	118	Washington big
SD Sack Rate	3.6%	37	5.9%	43

Passing Downs

	Washington Offense		Colorado Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	118.1	26	133.0	9	Colorado
Passing Downs Success Rate	37.5	16	23.1	8
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.90	26	1.27	104	Washington big
PD Line Yards per Carry	2.49	118	2.97	43	Colorado big
PD Sack Rate	10.6%	111	7.6%	67	Colorado

Individual Passing Stats

Team	Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Colorado	Sefo Liufau	6'4, 230	SR	179	277	2150	11	3	64.6%	19	6.4%	6.9
Colorado	Steven Montez	6'5, 225	FR	74	119	957	9	4	62.2%	8	6.3%	7.1
Colorado	Jordan Gehrke	6'1, 200	SR	4	7	38	0	0	57.1%	0	0.0%	5.4
Washington	Jake Browning	6'2, 209	SO	214	329	3162	40	7	65.0%	18	5.2%	8.9
Washington	K.J. Carta-Samuels	6'2, 219	SO	9	13	104	3	0	69.2%	1	7.1%	6.9
Washington

Individual Rushing Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate
Colorado	Phillip Lindsay	TB	5'8, 190	JR	211	1136	15	5.4	4.8	40.3%
Colorado	Sefo Liufau	QB	6'4, 230	SR	128	590	7	4.6	2.8	40.6%
Colorado	Kyle Evans	TB	5'6, 175	SO	85	346	3	4.1	2.7	36.5%
Colorado	Steven Montez	QB	6'5, 225	FR	40	277	1	6.9	5.1	52.5%
Washington	Myles Gaskin	TB	5'10, 195	SO	200	1183	10	5.9	5.1	44.0%
Washington	Lavon Coleman	TB	5'11, 228	JR	89	735	6	8.3	8.5	50.6%
Washington	Jomon Dotson	TB	5'10, 174	SO	56	257	1	4.6	4.2	37.5%
Washington	Jake Browning	QB	6'2, 209	SO	36	143	4	4.0	2.9	47.2%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Individual Receiving Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate
Colorado	Devin Ross	WR	5'9, 180	JR	101	65	758	5	11.7	7.5	64.4%
Colorado	Shay Fields	WR	5'11, 180	JR	82	50	819	9	16.4	10.0	61.0%
Colorado	Bryce Bobo	WR	6'2, 190	JR	60	41	523	2	12.8	8.7	68.3%
Colorado	Phillip Lindsay	TB	5'8, 190	JR	52	45	398	1	8.8	7.7	86.5%
Colorado	Jay MacIntyre	WR	5'10, 190	SO	38	29	374	1	12.9	9.8	76.3%
Colorado	Kabion Ento	WR	6'3, 180	JR	15	8	174	2	21.8	11.6	53.3%
Colorado	Kyle Evans	TB	5'6, 175	SO	13	7	101	0	14.4	7.8	53.8%
Washington	John Ross	WR	5'11, 190	JR	104	72	1071	16	14.9	10.3	69.2%
Washington	Dante Pettis	WR	6'1, 188	JR	65	49	787	14	16.1	12.1	75.4%
Washington	Chico McClatcher	WR	5'7, 179	SO	43	28	569	5	20.3	13.2	65.1%
Washington	Darrell Daniels	TE	6'4, 246	SR	25	16	292	2	18.3	11.7	64.0%
Washington	Aaron Fuller	WR	5'10, 198	FR	24	14	157	2	11.2	6.5	58.3%
Washington	Myles Gaskin	TB	5'10, 195	SO	17	13	73	1	5.6	4.3	76.5%
Washington	Andre Baccellia	WR	5'10, 171	FR	10	6	83	1	13.8	8.3	60.0%

Individual Defensive Stats

Team	Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Colorado	Kenneth Olugbode	ILB	6'1, 220	SR	73.0	11.5%	5.5	2.0	2	2	1	1
Colorado	Chidobe Awuzie	DB	6'0, 205	SR	50.5	8.0%	6.0	4.0	1	9	2	0
Colorado	Rick Gamboa	ILB	6'0, 230	SO	50.5	8.0%	3.0	0.0	1	3	1	0
Colorado	Afolabi Laguda	DB	6'1, 205	JR	50.5	8.0%	1.0	0.0	1	3	0	1
Colorado	Jimmie Gilbert	OLB	6'5, 230	SR	49.0	7.7%	12.0	9.0	0	2	6	0
Colorado	Tedric Thompson	DB	6'1, 205	SR	47.5	7.5%	3.0	0.0	7	14	0	0
Colorado	Ryan Moeller	DB	6'1, 215	JR	38.5	6.1%	2.0	0.0	0	1	2	0
Colorado	Addison Gillam	ILB	6'3, 230	JR	32.5	5.1%	5.0	4.0	0	0	1	0
Colorado	Jordan Carrell	DE	6'3, 300	SR	30.5	4.8%	6.0	5.0	0	0	0	0
Colorado	Josh Tupou	DT	6'3, 325	SR	30.5	4.8%	4.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Colorado	Samson Kafovalu	DT	6'4, 295	SR	30.5	4.8%	2.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Colorado	Isaiah Oliver	DB	6'1, 190	SO	23.0	3.6%	0.0	0.0	1	5	1	0
Colorado	Ahkello Witherspoon	DB	6'3, 195	SR	19.0	3.0%	0.0	0.0	1	19	1	0
Washington	Azeem Victor	LB	6'3, 230	JR	56.0	8.6%	3.0	0.0	0	1	1	1
Washington	Budda Baker	DB	5'10, 192	JR	53.0	8.1%	9.0	2.0	2	3	1	0
Washington	Keishawn Bierria	LB	6'1, 221	JR	49.5	7.6%	4.0	2.0	0	2	2	0
Washington	JoJo McIntosh	DB	6'1, 209	SO	43.5	6.7%	0.5	0.0	0	2	2	0
Washington	Taylor Rapp	DB	6'0, 202	FR	34.0	5.2%	0.0	0.0	2	2	1	0
Washington	Connor O'Brien	OLB	6'3, 232	JR	29.5	4.5%	6.5	3.0	1	0	0	0
Washington	Sidney Jones	DB	6'0, 181	JR	29.5	4.5%	2.5	0.0	3	6	1	0
Washington	Ben Burr-Kirven	LB	6'0, 214	SO	28.5	4.4%	0.0	0.0	1	1	0	0
Washington	Psalm Wooching	OLB	6'4, 231	SR	28.0	4.3%	6.0	5.0	0	1	1	0
Washington	Vita Vea	DL	6'5, 332	SO	27.5	4.2%	5.5	4.0	0	2	1	0
Washington	Kevin King	DB	6'3, 192	SR	26.5	4.1%	2.5	0.0	2	11	0	0
Washington	Greg Gaines	DL	6'2, 318	SO	23.5	3.6%	7.5	3.5	0	0	0	0
Washington	Elijah Qualls	DL	6'1, 321	JR	23.0	3.5%	5.0	3.0	0	0	0	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Individual Special Teams Stats

Team	Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Colorado	Alex Kinney	6'1, 205	SO	59	42.2	4	22	13	59.3%
Washington	Tristan Vizcaino	6'2, 206	JR	38	39.5	5	7	9	42.1%
Washington	Jake Browning	6'2, 209	SO	2	36.0	0	0	1	50.0%

Team	Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%	OOB	Fair Catches	Onside Att	Onside Success
Colorado	Chris Graham	6'3, 235	JR	48	61.7	21	43.8%	1	3	0	0
Colorado	Diego Gonzalez	6'0, 215	SR	19	65.0	16	84.2%	0	0	0	0
Washington	Tristan Vizcaino	6'2, 206	JR	93	59.0	36	38.7%	2	3	0	0
Washington	Cameron Van Winkle	5'10, 186	SR	2	63.0	1	50.0%	0	0	0	0

Team	Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	FG	Pct
Colorado	Davis Price	6'2, 190	FR	25-26	4-6	66.7%
Colorado	Chris Graham	6'3, 235	JR	8-10	9-13	69.2%
Washington	Cameron Van Winkle	5'10, 186	SR	69-70	14-18	77.8%

Team	Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Colorado	Anthony Julmisse	6'1, 185	FR	14	21.2	0	0	0 (0)
Colorado	Dylan Keeney	6'6, 220	SO	1	9.0	0	1	0 (0)
Washington	John Ross	5'11, 190	JR	12	26.8	1	0	0 (0)
Washington	Austin Joyner	5'10, 190	FR	8	12.3	0	0	0 (0)

Team	Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Colorado	Jay MacIntyre	5'10, 190	SO	17	8.9	0	11	2 (2)
Colorado	Isaiah Oliver	6'1, 190	SO	13	12.4	1	7	0 (0)
Washington	Dante Pettis	6'1, 188	JR	22	12.0	2	22	2 (1)
Washington	Aaron Fuller	5'10, 198	FR	1	5.0	0	3	0 (0)

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}