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Alabama at LSU: Advanced stats tale of the tape

Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) vs. LSU Tigers (5-2)

November 05, 2016 ( 8:00 PM ET, CBS )
Spread: Alabama -7.5
S&P+ Projection: Alabama (29.4-23.1)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Alabama LSU
S&P+ (Rk) 2 7
Category Alabama offense LSU defense LSU offense Alabama defense
Yards per play (Rk) 6.41 (15) 4.37 (7) 6.79 (8) 4.20 (3)
Yards per game (Rk) 485.8 (22) 317.9 (16) 423.7 (53) 284.9 (4)
Points per possession (Rk) 3.48 (5) 1.19 (5) 2.46 (51) 1.08 (3)
Category Alabama offense LSU defense LSU offense Alabama defense
S&P+ (Rk) 42.8 (3) 14.5 (6) 38.8 (18) 9.0 (2)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 135.2 (5) 136.4 (5) 137.0 (2) 169.1 (1)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 115.2 (34) 143.7 (4) 103.8 (59) 161.0 (2)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 118.2 (14) 133.3 (4) 122.7 (7) 139.2 (2)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 146.1 (3) 161.1 (6) 114.1 (40) 224.4 (2)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 135.5 (9) 149.4 (7) 114.6 (40) 174.4 (2)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 118.1 (28) 139.0 (8) 130.5 (5) 158.8 (3)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 136.7 (8) 160.9 (3) 124.5 (22) 179.4 (1)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 113.2 (31) 112.3 (29) 113.3 (30) 113.9 (22)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Alabama

  1. Field Position (No. 19 defense vs. No. 119 offense)
  2. Redzone S&P+ (No. 5 defense vs. No. 89 offense)
  3. Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 3 defense vs. No. 64 offense)
  4. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 7 defense vs. No. 66 offense)
  5. Passing S&P+ (No. 2 defense vs. No. 59 offense)

LSU

  1. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 14 defense vs. No. 80 offense)
  2. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 79 offense vs. No. 125 defense)
  3. Field Position (No. 26 defense vs. No. 67 offense)
  4. Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 5 defense vs. No. 36 offense)
  5. Passing S&P+ (No. 4 defense vs. No. 34 offense)
Five Factors
Category Alabama offense LSU defense LSU offense Alabama defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.24 (75) 1.25 (71) 1.51 (2) 1.38 (115)
EFFICIENCY 50.8% (6) 32.4% (5) 42.9% (57) 27.0% (2)
FIELD POSITION 29.7 (67) 27.4 (26) 26.8 (119) 27.1 (19)
FINISHING DRIVES 6.2 (2) 3.4 (8) 5.0 (46) 3.4 (9)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Alabama 5.86 (8)
LSU 3.08 (34)
ACTUAL
Alabama 4 (30)
LSU -1 (71)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Alabama offense LSU offense
Adj. Pace 2.0 (47) -11.4 (126)
Plays per game 75.8 (50) 62.4 (126)
Possessions per game 12.6 (91) 12.1 (116)
Std. Downs Run Rate 61.3% (56) 63.8% (42)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 39.6% (29) 32.1% (72)
% of solo tackles 78.2% (35) 54.4% (127)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Alabama defense LSU defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 55.2% (97) 59.8% (59)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 26.1% (115) 29.6% (106)
Overall Havoc Rate 22.9% (2) 17.2% (41)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 14.5% (4) 9.7% (54)
DB Havoc Rate 8.4% (16) 7.2% (41)
PD to INC 34.1% (57) 36.1% (42)

When Alabama has the ball…

Standard Downs
Alabama Offense LSU Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 118.2 14 133.3 4 LSU
Standard Downs Success Rate 56.7 4 38.3 6
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.02 104 1.44 71 LSU
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.29 27 2.72 40 Alabama
SD Sack Rate 5.6% 80 8.5% 14 LSU big
Passing Downs
Alabama Offense LSU Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 146.1 3 161.1 6
Passing Downs Success Rate 36.6 21 20.0 7 LSU
Passing Downs IsoPPP 2.06 9 1.25 89 Alabama big
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.72 31 3.71 107 Alabama big
PD Sack Rate 6.2% 39 9.1% 40

When LSU has the ball…

Standard Downs
LSU Offense Alabama Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 122.7 7 139.2 2
Standard Downs Success Rate 47.1 68 32.5 2 Alabama big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.44 2 1.11 127 LSU big
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.37 20 2.40 15
SD Sack Rate 4.6% 62 8.8% 12 Alabama big
Passing Downs
LSU Offense Alabama Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 114.1 40 224.4 2 Alabama
Passing Downs Success Rate 33.9 39 18.8 6 Alabama
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.73 76 1.83 1 Alabama big
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.52 42 1.89 4 Alabama
PD Sack Rate 7.9% 69 11.8% 14 Alabama big
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Alabama Jalen Hurts 6'2, 209 FR 129 204 1578 12 5 63.2% 9 4.2% 7.1
Alabama Blake Barnett 6'5, 211 FR 11 19 219 2 0 57.9% 4 17.4% 8.7
Alabama Cooper Bateman 6'3, 220 JR 9 10 69 0 0 90.0% 1 9.1% 5.5
LSU Danny Etling 6'1, 215 JR 89 147 1129 7 3 60.5% 9 5.8% 6.9
LSU Brandon Harris 6'3, 218 JR 13 25 139 1 2 52.0% 2 7.4% 4.8
LSU Justin McMillan 6'2, 196 FR 1 1 19 0 0 100.0% 0 0.0% 19.0
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Alabama Damien Harris RB 5'11, 214 SO 88 697 1 7.9 9.3 46.6%
Alabama Jalen Hurts QB 6'2, 209 FR 86 583 9 6.8 6.4 52.3%
Alabama Joshua Jacobs RB 5'10, 204 FR 53 381 3 7.2 6.2 52.8%
Alabama Bo Scarbrough RB 6'2, 228 SO 51 306 5 6.0 7.1 39.2%
LSU Leonard Fournette RB 6'1, 235 JR 83 670 5 8.1 9.8 44.6%
LSU Derrius Guice RB 5'11, 212 SO 78 621 7 8.0 10.5 42.3%
LSU Darrel Williams RB 6'1, 233 JR 31 163 3 5.3 4.1 45.2%
LSU Danny Etling QB 6'1, 215 JR 14 97 1 6.9 4.1 57.1%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Alabama Calvin Ridley WR 6'1, 188 SO 74 44 533 6 12.1 7.2 59.5%
Alabama ArDarius Stewart WR 6'1, 204 JR 38 28 436 3 15.6 11.5 73.7%
Alabama O.J. Howard TE 6'6, 251 SR 27 22 278 2 12.6 10.3 81.5%
Alabama Gehrig Dieter WR 6'3, 207 SR 19 8 175 1 21.9 9.2 42.1%
Alabama Trevon Diggs WR 6'2, 195 FR 11 7 64 0 9.1 5.8 63.6%
Alabama Josh Jacobs RB 5'10, 204 FR 9 7 86 0 12.3 9.6 77.8%
Alabama Cam Sims WR 6'5, 203 JR 9 6 65 0 10.8 7.2 66.7%
LSU Malachi Dupre WR 6'4, 195 JR 40 23 288 2 12.5 7.2 57.5%
LSU Travin Dural WR 6'2, 207 SR 40 24 246 1 10.3 6.2 60.0%
LSU D.J. Chark WR 6'3, 187 JR 25 16 269 3 16.8 10.8 64.0%
LSU Leonard Fournette RB 6'1, 235 JR 17 12 94 0 7.8 5.5 70.6%
LSU Colin Jeter TE 6'7, 254 SR 9 4 71 0 17.8 7.9 44.4%
LSU Derrius Guice RB 5'11, 212 SO 9 5 66 0 13.2 7.3 55.6%
LSU DeSean Smith TE 6'5, 249 SR 5 4 121 1 30.3 24.2 80.0%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Alabama Reuben Foster LB 6'1, 236 SR 41.0 10.0% 4.5 1.5 0 2 0 0
Alabama Ronnie Harrison DB 6'3, 216 SO 32.5 8.0% 1.0 0.0 2 3 0 1
Alabama Shaun Dion Hamilton LB 6'0, 232 JR 31.5 7.7% 7.5 2.0 0 0 1 0
Alabama Minkah Fitzpatrick DB 6'1, 203 SO 29.5 7.2% 2.0 1.5 3 5 1 0
Alabama Jonathan Allen DL 6'3, 291 SR 26.5 6.5% 6.5 6.0 0 2 0 2
Alabama Ryan Anderson LB 6'2, 253 SR 22.5 5.5% 11.5 4.5 0 1 3 0
Alabama Rashaan Evans LB 6'3, 231 JR 20.5 5.0% 1.5 1.5 0 0 1 0
Alabama Anthony Averett DB 6'0, 183 JR 20.5 5.0% 1.0 0.0 0 4 1 0
Alabama Eddie Jackson DB 6'0, 194 SR 19.5 4.8% 2.5 0.0 1 2 0 0
Alabama Marlon Humphrey DB 6'1, 196 SO 17.5 4.3% 2.0 0.0 2 4 1 0
Alabama Dalvin Tomlinson DL 6'3, 305 SR 17.0 4.2% 2.5 2.0 0 3 1 0
Alabama Tim Williams LB 6'4, 252 SR 14.5 3.5% 9.5 6.5 0 1 2 1
Alabama Hootie Jones DB 6'2, 215 JR 14.5 3.5% 0.0 0.0 0 3 1 0
LSU Kendell Beckwith LB 6'3, 247 SR 47.5 11.9% 5.5 1.0 0 2 0 0
LSU Duke Riley LB 6'1, 230 SR 42.0 10.5% 5.0 0.5 1 0 0 0
LSU Jamal Adams S 6'1, 213 JR 37.5 9.4% 2.5 0.0 0 3 1 1
LSU Arden Key DE 6'6, 238 SO 23.5 5.9% 9.0 8.0 0 2 3 0
LSU Davon Godchaux DT 6'4, 299 JR 22.5 5.6% 4.5 4.0 0 0 0 0
LSU Lewis Neal DE 6'2, 272 SR 20.0 5.0% 4.5 3.5 0 1 0 0
LSU Donte Jackson DB 5'11, 173 SO 19.0 4.8% 0.0 0.0 2 6 1 0
LSU Kevin Toliver II CB 6'2, 193 SO 16.5 4.1% 0.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
LSU Rickey Jefferson S 6'0, 209 SR 16.5 4.1% 0.0 0.0 1 1 0 0
LSU Tre'Davious White CB 6'0, 197 SR 16.0 4.0% 1.5 0.5 2 5 0 1
LSU Dwayne Thomas DB 6'0, 201 SR 15.5 3.9% 1.0 0.0 0 3 0 0
LSU Donnie Alexander LB 6'1, 212 JR 15.5 3.9% 0.5 0.0 0 0 0 0
LSU Greg Gilmore DT 6'4, 308 JR 14.5 3.6% 0.5 0.5 0 1 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Alabama JK Scott 6'6, 202 JR 28 47.5 4 9 10 67.9%
LSU Josh Growden 6'2, 198 FR 32 42.6 2 15 9 75.0%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Alabama Adam Griffith 5'10, 191 SR 60 63.4 32 53.3% 0 1 0 0
Alabama Andy Pappanastos 5'11, 198 JR 2 57.0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0
LSU Cameron Gamble 5'11, 189 JR 39 62.3 9 23.1% 0 3 0 0
LSU Jack Gonsoulin 5'9, 165 FR 1 50.0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Alabama Adam Griffith 5'10, 191 SR 43-43 10-15 66.7%
Alabama Andy Pappanastos 5'11, 198 JR 2-2 0-0 #DIV/0!
LSU Colby Delahoussaye 5'10, 180 SR 25-27 5-7 71.4%
LSU Jack Gonsoulin 5'9, 165 FR 1-1 0-0 #DIV/0!
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Alabama Xavian Marks 5'8, 166 SO 7 17.6 0 0 0 (0)
Alabama Trevon Diggs 6'2, 195 FR 7 23.7 0 0 0 (0)
LSU Derrius Guice 5'11, 212 SO 7 18.6 0 0 0 (0)
LSU Donte Jackson 5'11, 173 SO 5 25.0 0 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Alabama Eddie Jackson 6'0, 194 SR 11 23.0 2 9 0 (0)
Alabama Xavian Marks 5'8, 166 SO 5 21.0 1 2 0 (0)
LSU Tre'Davious White 6'0, 197 SR 14 9.6 1 13 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics