Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) vs. LSU Tigers (5-2)
November 05, 2016 ( 8:00 PM ET, CBS )
Spread: Alabama -7.5
S&P+ Projection: Alabama (29.4-23.1)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Alabama | LSU | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 2 | 7 | ||
| Category | Alabama offense | LSU defense | LSU offense | Alabama defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 6.41 (15) | 4.37 (7) | 6.79 (8) | 4.20 (3) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 485.8 (22) | 317.9 (16) | 423.7 (53) | 284.9 (4) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 3.48 (5) | 1.19 (5) | 2.46 (51) | 1.08 (3) |
| Category | Alabama offense | LSU defense | LSU offense | Alabama defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 42.8 (3) | 14.5 (6) | 38.8 (18) | 9.0 (2) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 135.2 (5) | 136.4 (5) | 137.0 (2) | 169.1 (1) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 115.2 (34) | 143.7 (4) | 103.8 (59) | 161.0 (2) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 118.2 (14) | 133.3 (4) | 122.7 (7) | 139.2 (2) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 146.1 (3) | 161.1 (6) | 114.1 (40) | 224.4 (2) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 135.5 (9) | 149.4 (7) | 114.6 (40) | 174.4 (2) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 118.1 (28) | 139.0 (8) | 130.5 (5) | 158.8 (3) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 136.7 (8) | 160.9 (3) | 124.5 (22) | 179.4 (1) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 113.2 (31) | 112.3 (29) | 113.3 (30) | 113.9 (22) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Alabama
- Field Position (No. 19 defense vs. No. 119 offense)
- Redzone S&P+ (No. 5 defense vs. No. 89 offense)
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 3 defense vs. No. 64 offense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 7 defense vs. No. 66 offense)
- Passing S&P+ (No. 2 defense vs. No. 59 offense)
LSU
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 14 defense vs. No. 80 offense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 79 offense vs. No. 125 defense)
- Field Position (No. 26 defense vs. No. 67 offense)
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 5 defense vs. No. 36 offense)
- Passing S&P+ (No. 4 defense vs. No. 34 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Alabama offense | LSU defense | LSU offense | Alabama defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.24 (75) | 1.25 (71) | 1.51 (2) | 1.38 (115) |
| EFFICIENCY | 50.8% (6) | 32.4% (5) | 42.9% (57) | 27.0% (2) |
| FIELD POSITION | 29.7 (67) | 27.4 (26) | 26.8 (119) | 27.1 (19) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 6.2 (2) | 3.4 (8) | 5.0 (46) | 3.4 (9) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN |
EXPECTED: Alabama 5.86 (8) LSU 3.08 (34) |
ACTUAL Alabama 4 (30) LSU -1 (71) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Alabama offense | LSU offense |
| Adj. Pace | 2.0 (47) | -11.4 (126) |
| Plays per game | 75.8 (50) | 62.4 (126) |
| Possessions per game | 12.6 (91) | 12.1 (116) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 61.3% (56) | 63.8% (42) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 39.6% (29) | 32.1% (72) |
| % of solo tackles | 78.2% (35) | 54.4% (127) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Alabama defense | LSU defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 55.2% (97) | 59.8% (59) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 26.1% (115) | 29.6% (106) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 22.9% (2) | 17.2% (41) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 14.5% (4) | 9.7% (54) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 8.4% (16) | 7.2% (41) |
| PD to INC | 34.1% (57) | 36.1% (42) |
When Alabama has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Alabama Offense | LSU Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 118.2 | 14 | 133.3 | 4 | LSU |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 56.7 | 4 | 38.3 | 6 | |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.02 | 104 | 1.44 | 71 | LSU |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.29 | 27 | 2.72 | 40 | Alabama |
| SD Sack Rate | 5.6% | 80 | 8.5% | 14 | LSU big |
Passing Downs
| Alabama Offense | LSU Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 146.1 | 3 | 161.1 | 6 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 36.6 | 21 | 20.0 | 7 | LSU |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.06 | 9 | 1.25 | 89 | Alabama big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.72 | 31 | 3.71 | 107 | Alabama big |
| PD Sack Rate | 6.2% | 39 | 9.1% | 40 | |
When LSU has the ball…
Standard Downs
| LSU Offense | Alabama Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 122.7 | 7 | 139.2 | 2 | |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 47.1 | 68 | 32.5 | 2 | Alabama big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.44 | 2 | 1.11 | 127 | LSU big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.37 | 20 | 2.40 | 15 | |
| SD Sack Rate | 4.6% | 62 | 8.8% | 12 | Alabama big |
Passing Downs
| LSU Offense | Alabama Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 114.1 | 40 | 224.4 | 2 | Alabama |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 33.9 | 39 | 18.8 | 6 | Alabama |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.73 | 76 | 1.83 | 1 | Alabama big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.52 | 42 | 1.89 | 4 | Alabama |
| PD Sack Rate | 7.9% | 69 | 11.8% | 14 | Alabama big |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Alabama | Jalen Hurts | 6'2, 209 | FR | 129 | 204 | 1578 | 12 | 5 | 63.2% | 9 | 4.2% | 7.1 |
| Alabama | Blake Barnett | 6'5, 211 | FR | 11 | 19 | 219 | 2 | 0 | 57.9% | 4 | 17.4% | 8.7 |
| Alabama | Cooper Bateman | 6'3, 220 | JR | 9 | 10 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 90.0% | 1 | 9.1% | 5.5 |
| LSU | Danny Etling | 6'1, 215 | JR | 89 | 147 | 1129 | 7 | 3 | 60.5% | 9 | 5.8% | 6.9 |
| LSU | Brandon Harris | 6'3, 218 | JR | 13 | 25 | 139 | 1 | 2 | 52.0% | 2 | 7.4% | 4.8 |
| LSU | Justin McMillan | 6'2, 196 | FR | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 19.0 |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
| Alabama | Damien Harris | RB | 5'11, 214 | SO | 88 | 697 | 1 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 46.6% |
| Alabama | Jalen Hurts | QB | 6'2, 209 | FR | 86 | 583 | 9 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 52.3% |
| Alabama | Joshua Jacobs | RB | 5'10, 204 | FR | 53 | 381 | 3 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 52.8% |
| Alabama | Bo Scarbrough | RB | 6'2, 228 | SO | 51 | 306 | 5 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 39.2% |
| LSU | Leonard Fournette | RB | 6'1, 235 | JR | 83 | 670 | 5 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 44.6% |
| LSU | Derrius Guice | RB | 5'11, 212 | SO | 78 | 621 | 7 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 42.3% |
| LSU | Darrel Williams | RB | 6'1, 233 | JR | 31 | 163 | 3 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 45.2% |
| LSU | Danny Etling | QB | 6'1, 215 | JR | 14 | 97 | 1 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 57.1% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch |
Yds/ Target |
Catch Rate |
| Alabama | Calvin Ridley | WR | 6'1, 188 | SO | 74 | 44 | 533 | 6 | 12.1 | 7.2 | 59.5% |
| Alabama | ArDarius Stewart | WR | 6'1, 204 | JR | 38 | 28 | 436 | 3 | 15.6 | 11.5 | 73.7% |
| Alabama | O.J. Howard | TE | 6'6, 251 | SR | 27 | 22 | 278 | 2 | 12.6 | 10.3 | 81.5% |
| Alabama | Gehrig Dieter | WR | 6'3, 207 | SR | 19 | 8 | 175 | 1 | 21.9 | 9.2 | 42.1% |
| Alabama | Trevon Diggs | WR | 6'2, 195 | FR | 11 | 7 | 64 | 0 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 63.6% |
| Alabama | Josh Jacobs | RB | 5'10, 204 | FR | 9 | 7 | 86 | 0 | 12.3 | 9.6 | 77.8% |
| Alabama | Cam Sims | WR | 6'5, 203 | JR | 9 | 6 | 65 | 0 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 66.7% |
| LSU | Malachi Dupre | WR | 6'4, 195 | JR | 40 | 23 | 288 | 2 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 57.5% |
| LSU | Travin Dural | WR | 6'2, 207 | SR | 40 | 24 | 246 | 1 | 10.3 | 6.2 | 60.0% |
| LSU | D.J. Chark | WR | 6'3, 187 | JR | 25 | 16 | 269 | 3 | 16.8 | 10.8 | 64.0% |
| LSU | Leonard Fournette | RB | 6'1, 235 | JR | 17 | 12 | 94 | 0 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 70.6% |
| LSU | Colin Jeter | TE | 6'7, 254 | SR | 9 | 4 | 71 | 0 | 17.8 | 7.9 | 44.4% |
| LSU | Derrius Guice | RB | 5'11, 212 | SO | 9 | 5 | 66 | 0 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 55.6% |
| LSU | DeSean Smith | TE | 6'5, 249 | SR | 5 | 4 | 121 | 1 | 30.3 | 24.2 | 80.0% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Alabama | Reuben Foster | LB | 6'1, 236 | SR | 41.0 | 10.0% | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alabama | Ronnie Harrison | DB | 6'3, 216 | SO | 32.5 | 8.0% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Alabama | Shaun Dion Hamilton | LB | 6'0, 232 | JR | 31.5 | 7.7% | 7.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Alabama | Minkah Fitzpatrick | DB | 6'1, 203 | SO | 29.5 | 7.2% | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Alabama | Jonathan Allen | DL | 6'3, 291 | SR | 26.5 | 6.5% | 6.5 | 6.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Alabama | Ryan Anderson | LB | 6'2, 253 | SR | 22.5 | 5.5% | 11.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Alabama | Rashaan Evans | LB | 6'3, 231 | JR | 20.5 | 5.0% | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Alabama | Anthony Averett | DB | 6'0, 183 | JR | 20.5 | 5.0% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Alabama | Eddie Jackson | DB | 6'0, 194 | SR | 19.5 | 4.8% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alabama | Marlon Humphrey | DB | 6'1, 196 | SO | 17.5 | 4.3% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Alabama | Dalvin Tomlinson | DL | 6'3, 305 | SR | 17.0 | 4.2% | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Alabama | Tim Williams | LB | 6'4, 252 | SR | 14.5 | 3.5% | 9.5 | 6.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Alabama | Hootie Jones | DB | 6'2, 215 | JR | 14.5 | 3.5% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| LSU | Kendell Beckwith | LB | 6'3, 247 | SR | 47.5 | 11.9% | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| LSU | Duke Riley | LB | 6'1, 230 | SR | 42.0 | 10.5% | 5.0 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LSU | Jamal Adams | S | 6'1, 213 | JR | 37.5 | 9.4% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| LSU | Arden Key | DE | 6'6, 238 | SO | 23.5 | 5.9% | 9.0 | 8.0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| LSU | Davon Godchaux | DT | 6'4, 299 | JR | 22.5 | 5.6% | 4.5 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LSU | Lewis Neal | DE | 6'2, 272 | SR | 20.0 | 5.0% | 4.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LSU | Donte Jackson | DB | 5'11, 173 | SO | 19.0 | 4.8% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| LSU | Kevin Toliver II | CB | 6'2, 193 | SO | 16.5 | 4.1% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LSU | Rickey Jefferson | S | 6'0, 209 | SR | 16.5 | 4.1% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LSU | Tre'Davious White | CB | 6'0, 197 | SR | 16.0 | 4.0% | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| LSU | Dwayne Thomas | DB | 6'0, 201 | SR | 15.5 | 3.9% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| LSU | Donnie Alexander | LB | 6'1, 212 | JR | 15.5 | 3.9% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LSU | Greg Gilmore | DT | 6'4, 308 | JR | 14.5 | 3.6% | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Alabama | JK Scott | 6'6, 202 | JR | 28 | 47.5 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 67.9% |
| LSU | Josh Growden | 6'2, 198 | FR | 32 | 42.6 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 75.0% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches |
Onside Att |
Onside Success |
| Alabama | Adam Griffith | 5'10, 191 | SR | 60 | 63.4 | 32 | 53.3% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alabama | Andy Pappanastos | 5'11, 198 | JR | 2 | 57.0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LSU | Cameron Gamble | 5'11, 189 | JR | 39 | 62.3 | 9 | 23.1% | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| LSU | Jack Gonsoulin | 5'9, 165 | FR | 1 | 50.0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Alabama | Adam Griffith | 5'10, 191 | SR | 43-43 | 10-15 | 66.7% |
| Alabama | Andy Pappanastos | 5'11, 198 | JR | 2-2 | 0-0 | #DIV/0! |
| LSU | Colby Delahoussaye | 5'10, 180 | SR | 25-27 | 5-7 | 71.4% |
| LSU | Jack Gonsoulin | 5'9, 165 | FR | 1-1 | 0-0 | #DIV/0! |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Alabama | Xavian Marks | 5'8, 166 | SO | 7 | 17.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Alabama | Trevon Diggs | 6'2, 195 | FR | 7 | 23.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| LSU | Derrius Guice | 5'11, 212 | SO | 7 | 18.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| LSU | Donte Jackson | 5'11, 173 | SO | 5 | 25.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Alabama | Eddie Jackson | 6'0, 194 | SR | 11 | 23.0 | 2 | 9 | 0 (0) |
| Alabama | Xavian Marks | 5'8, 166 | SO | 5 | 21.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 (0) |
| LSU | Tre'Davious White | 6'0, 197 | SR | 14 | 9.6 | 1 | 13 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics