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College football, Week 12: Schedule, TV listings, S&P+ and F/+ picks

NCAA Football: West Virginia at Oklahoma Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

And we’re back!

  • Weeks 1-2: 45-41-1 (52%)
  • Weeks 3-5: 69-95-2 (42%)
  • Weeks 6-9: 115-92-3 (55%)
  • Week 10: 19-38-1 (34%)
  • Week 11: 32-21-3 (60%)

It’s been a strange year. But for the first time since about Week 2, there was some good luck in the close games department: S&P+ went 7-2-3 in games decided within three points of the spread. After the BS of the last couple of months, it deserves a few more weeks like that.

VOLATILITY PICKS

As your weekly refresher, I’ve been playing with standard deviations and volatility to see if I can come up with a way to determine which picks are most likely to succeed in a given week. The results have been mixed.

  • Fournette-Nkemdiche Picks — Week 11: 4-1 (80%) | Season to date: 17-10-3 (62%)
  • All-Conference Picks — Week 11: 2-3 (40%) | Season to date: 18-12-1 (60%)
  • YOU-CAN-WIN-WITH-THEM-IF-YOU’RE-A-GOOD-DEVELOPER-OF-TALENT PICKS— 4-2 (67%) | Season to date: 35-22 (61%)

This week’s picks:

FOURNETTE-NKEMDICHE PICKS (the top 5 most likely covers of the week)

  1. Troy (-8) vs. Arkansas State
  2. UL-Lafayette (+22.5) at Georgia
  3. UMass (+30.5) at BYU
  4. Colorado State (-4.5) vs. New Mexico
  5. Utah State (-6.5) at Nevada

ALL-CONFERENCE PICKS

  • Baylor (-2.5) vs. Kansas State
  • Appalachian State (-26) vs. ULM
  • MTSU (-4) at Charlotte

YOU-CAN-WIN-WITH-THEM-IF-YOU’RE-A-GOOD-DEVELOPER-OF-TALENT PICKS

  • California (+11) vs. Stanford
  • Ball State (+20.5) at Toledo
  • Ole Miss (-10) at Vanderbilt
  • Michigan (-23.5) vs. Indiana
  • Colorado (-4.5) vs. Washington State
  • New Mexico State (-9.5) vs. Texas State
  • EMU (+3) vs. NIU
  • East Carolina (+7) vs. Navy
  • UTSA (+27.5) at Texas A&M

Here’s the updated Google doc with all picks. Once again, there are three sets listed: S&P+, Weighted S&P+ (which went 29-24-3 last week, not quite as good as overall S&P+), and F/+. And, as always, here’s a completely useless embed, just for fun: