College football, Week 12: Schedule, TV listings, S&P+ and F/+ picks

And we’re back!

• Weeks 1-2: 45-41-1 (52%)
• Weeks 3-5: 69-95-2 (42%)
• Weeks 6-9: 115-92-3 (55%)
• Week 10: 19-38-1 (34%)
• Week 11: 32-21-3 (60%)

It’s been a strange year. But for the first time since about Week 2, there was some good luck in the close games department: S&P+ went 7-2-3 in games decided within three points of the spread. After the BS of the last couple of months, it deserves a few more weeks like that.

VOLATILITY PICKS

As your weekly refresher, I’ve been playing with standard deviations and volatility to see if I can come up with a way to determine which picks are most likely to succeed in a given week. The results have been mixed.

• Fournette-Nkemdiche Picks — Week 11: 4-1 (80%) | Season to date: 17-10-3 (62%)
• All-Conference Picks — Week 11: 2-3 (40%) | Season to date: 18-12-1 (60%)
• YOU-CAN-WIN-WITH-THEM-IF-YOU’RE-A-GOOD-DEVELOPER-OF-TALENT PICKS— 4-2 (67%) | Season to date: 35-22 (61%)

This week’s picks:

FOURNETTE-NKEMDICHE PICKS (the top 5 most likely covers of the week)

1. Troy (-8) vs. Arkansas State
2. UL-Lafayette (+22.5) at Georgia
3. UMass (+30.5) at BYU
4. Colorado State (-4.5) vs. New Mexico
5. Utah State (-6.5) at Nevada

ALL-CONFERENCE PICKS

• Baylor (-2.5) vs. Kansas State
• Appalachian State (-26) vs. ULM
• MTSU (-4) at Charlotte

YOU-CAN-WIN-WITH-THEM-IF-YOU’RE-A-GOOD-DEVELOPER-OF-TALENT PICKS

• California (+11) vs. Stanford
• Ball State (+20.5) at Toledo
• Ole Miss (-10) at Vanderbilt
• Michigan (-23.5) vs. Indiana
• Colorado (-4.5) vs. Washington State
• New Mexico State (-9.5) vs. Texas State
• EMU (+3) vs. NIU
• East Carolina (+7) vs. Navy
• UTSA (+27.5) at Texas A&M

Here’s the updated Google doc with all picks. Once again, there are three sets listed: S&P+, Weighted S&P+ (which went 29-24-3 last week, not quite as good as overall S&P+), and F/+. And, as always, here’s a completely useless embed, just for fun: