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Nebraska at Wisconsin: Advanced stats tale of the tape

Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-0) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (5-2)

October 29, 2016 ( 7:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Wisconsin -9
S&P+ Projection: Wisconsin (28.6-20.6)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Nebraska Wisconsin
S&P+ (Rk) 22 10
Category Nebraska offense Wisconsin defense Wisconsin offense Nebraska defense
Yards per play (Rk) 5.81 (47) 4.57 (19) 5.20 (86) 5.12 (43)
Yards per game (Rk) 439.1 (41) 294.7 (8) 386.6 (89) 343.3 (24)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.72 (29) 1.19 (9) 2.02 (82) 1.43 (18)
Category Nebraska offense Wisconsin defense Wisconsin offense Nebraska defense
S&P+ (Rk) 34.0 (34) 12.4 (5) 29.2 (65) 22.6 (22)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 96.3 (87) 135.7 (5) 122.1 (15) 101.7 (60)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 121.5 (22) 128.5 (11) 135.9 (6) 110.1 (34)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 99.6 (78) 135.4 (3) 117.5 (14) 101.4 (64)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 121.9 (30) 124.4 (19) 152.8 (2) 117.6 (30)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 109.7 (55) 146.6 (9) 151.2 (2) 100.1 (67)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 96.5 (89) 146.2 (8) 125.0 (18) 95.9 (86)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 95.9 (87) 137.1 (11) 116.2 (31) 130.9 (14)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 126.7 (8) 111.1 (33) 103.0 (63) 126.2 (9)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Nebraska

  1. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 6 offense vs. No. 79 defense)
  2. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 21 defense vs. No. 57 offense)
  3. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 36 defense vs. No. 70 offense)
  4. Q4 S&P+ (No. 3 vs. No. 36 )
  5. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 1 offense vs. No. 30 defense)

Wisconsin

  1. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 2 defense vs. No. 106 offense)
  2. Adj. Line Yards (No. 14 defense vs. No. 111 offense)
  3. Q2 S&P+ (No. 6 vs. No. 95 )
  4. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 2 defense vs. No. 84 offense)
  5. Rushing S&P+ (No. 5 defense vs. No. 87 offense)
Five Factors
Category Nebraska offense Wisconsin defense Wisconsin offense Nebraska defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.22 (88) 1.07 (4) 1.20 (98) 1.25 (70)
EFFICIENCY 46.0% (28) 38.6% (37) 41.3% (71) 39.2% (44)
FIELD POSITION 32.9 (19) 27.9 (42) 30.2 (54) 27.4 (31)
FINISHING DRIVES 5.0 (50) 3.2 (7) 4.0 (115) 3.4 (13)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Nebraska -1.22 (89)
Wisconsin 3.80 (24)
ACTUAL
Nebraska 5 (25)
Wisconsin -1 (69)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Nebraska offense Wisconsin offense
Adj. Pace 2.0 (45) 0.3 (60)
Plays per game 75.6 (54) 74.3 (67)
Possessions per game 12.6 (91) 12.0 (118)
Std. Downs Run Rate 72.2% (10) 69.1% (16)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 32.7% (69) 29.1% (94)
% of solo tackles 68.0% (110) 68.0% (111)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Nebraska defense Wisconsin defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 54.7% (101) 60.9% (55)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 23.0% (125) 25.4% (119)
Overall Havoc Rate 18.0% (31) 18.5% (29)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 6.8% (115) 10.2% (43)
DB Havoc Rate 11.2% (2) 8.1% (25)
PD to INC 39.6% (18) 36.6% (37)

When Nebraska has the ball…

Standard Downs
Nebraska Offense Wisconsin Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 99.6 78 135.4 3 Wisconsin big
Standard Downs Success Rate 49.2 46 45.5 54
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.01 111 1.09 1 Wisconsin big
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.86 86 2.79 53 Wisconsin
SD Sack Rate 1.1% 6 4% 79 Nebraska big
Passing Downs
Nebraska Offense Wisconsin Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 121.9 30 124.4 19 Wisconsin
Passing Downs Success Rate 38.8 15 25.4 23
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.80 56 1.74 102 Nebraska
PD Line Yards per Carry 2.67 109 2.58 26 Wisconsin big
PD Sack Rate 4% 20 10.3% 28

When Wisconsin has the ball…

Standard Downs
Wisconsin Offense Nebraska Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 117.5 14 101.4 64 Wisconsin
Standard Downs Success Rate 43.8 108 45.3 51 Nebraska big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.09 75 0.84 64 Nebraska
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.11 47 2.73 47
SD Sack Rate 3.9% 41 7.9% 20 Nebraska
Passing Downs
Wisconsin Offense Nebraska Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 152.8 2 117.6 30 Wisconsin
Passing Downs Success Rate 35.1 29 27.7 37
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.52 111 1.89 67 Nebraska
PD Line Yards per Carry 1.91 126 3.06 58 Nebraska big
PD Sack Rate 10.5% 103 6.1% 89 Nebraska
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Nebraska Tommy Armstrong Jr. 6'1, 220 SR 103 186 1611 11 5 55.4% 5 2.6% 8.2
Nebraska Ryker Fyfe 6'3, 215 SR 2 5 41 1 0 40.0% 0 0.0% 8.2
Wisconsin Alex Hornibrook 6'4, 219 FR 65 115 877 5 6 56.5% 10 8.0% 6.4
Wisconsin Bart Houston 6'4, 235 SR 48 77 586 3 2 62.3% 4 4.9% 7.0
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Nebraska Terrell Newby RB 5'10, 200 SR 103 511 4 5.0 5.3 38.8%
Nebraska Devine Ozigbo RB 6'0, 230 SO 77 320 4 4.2 1.9 44.2%
Nebraska Tommy Armstrong Jr. QB 6'1, 220 SR 76 430 6 5.7 6.2 42.1%
Nebraska Tre Bryant RB 5'11, 200 FR 19 75 1 3.9 2.8 36.8%
Wisconsin Corey Clement RB 5'11, 227 SR 143 617 6 4.3 5.4 26.6%
Wisconsin Dare Ogunbowale RB 5'11, 205 SR 53 218 1 4.1 2.8 32.1%
Wisconsin Bradrick Shaw RB 6'1, 211 FR 26 150 1 5.8 3.9 57.7%
Wisconsin Taiwan Deal RB 6'1, 224 SO 20 94 0 4.7 2.2 45.0%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Nebraska Stanley Morgan Jr. WR 6'1, 200 SO 32 18 271 1 15.1 8.5 56.2%
Nebraska Brandon Reilly WR 6'2, 200 SR 25 10 230 0 23.0 9.2 40.0%
Nebraska Alonzo Moore WR 6'2, 195 SR 22 13 324 2 24.9 14.7 59.1%
Nebraska Jordan Westerkamp WR 6'0, 200 SR 22 13 228 4 17.5 10.4 59.1%
Nebraska De'Mornay Pierson-El WR 5'9, 185 JR 19 9 130 1 14.4 6.8 47.4%
Nebraska Cethan Carter TE 6'4, 240 SR 18 10 101 1 10.1 5.6 55.6%
Nebraska Terrell Newby RB 5'10, 200 SR 14 11 89 0 8.1 6.4 78.6%
Wisconsin Jazz Peavy WR 6'0, 184 JR 52 24 383 3 16.0 7.4 46.2%
Wisconsin Troy Fumagalli TE 6'6, 248 JR 35 25 303 1 12.1 8.7 71.4%
Wisconsin Robert Wheelwright WR 6'3, 211 SR 33 20 310 0 15.5 9.4 60.6%
Wisconsin Dare Ogunbowale RB 5'11, 205 SR 18 12 87 1 7.3 4.8 66.7%
Wisconsin George Rushing WR 6'1, 192 JR 9 8 82 0 10.3 9.1 88.9%
Wisconsin Kyle Penniston TE 6'4, 236 FR 7 4 89 1 22.3 12.7 57.1%
Wisconsin Alec Ingold FB 6'2, 238 SO 7 4 21 1 5.3 3.0 57.1%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Nebraska Kieron Williams S 6'1, 195 JR 38.5 11.5% 2.0 0.0 4 2 0 0
Nebraska Nathan Gerry S 6'2, 220 SR 33.5 10.0% 5.5 0.5 2 5 0 0
Nebraska Dedrick Young II LB 6'1, 220 SO 33.5 10.0% 2.0 1.0 0 4 1 0
Nebraska Josh Banderas LB 6'3, 240 SR 32.0 9.6% 1.5 0.0 0 0 0 0
Nebraska Joshua Kalu CB 6'1, 190 JR 29.0 8.7% 1.0 1.0 1 4 0 0
Nebraska Ross Dzuris DE 6'3, 255 SR 18.5 5.5% 7.5 4.5 0 0 0 1
Nebraska Michael Rose-Ivey LB 6'0, 230 SR 18.5 5.5% 3.0 0.5 0 0 0 0
Nebraska Aaron Williams S 5'11, 185 SO 17.5 5.2% 2.5 1.0 3 4 0 0
Nebraska Chris Jones CB 6'0, 185 JR 17.0 5.1% 2.0 1.0 3 7 0 0
Nebraska Kevin Maurice DT 6'3, 300 SR 11.5 3.4% 3.5 3.0 0 0 0 0
Nebraska Freedom Akinmoladun DE 6'4, 255 SO 10.0 3.0% 1.0 1.0 0 0 1 0
Nebraska Marcus Newby LB 6'1, 235 JR 8.5 2.5% 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Nebraska Carlos Davis DT 6'2, 295 FR 7.5 2.2% 2.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Wisconsin Jack Cichy ILB 6'2, 233 JR 52.5 15.6% 7.0 1.5 0 2 2 0
Wisconsin T.J. Edwards ILB 6'1, 244 SO 32.5 9.6% 2.0 1.0 1 1 0 0
Wisconsin T.J. Watt OLB 6'5, 243 JR 31.5 9.3% 9.5 7.0 0 1 0 0
Wisconsin Leo Musso S 5'10, 194 SR 26.0 7.7% 1.0 0.0 1 1 0 1
Wisconsin D'Cota Dixon S 5'10, 197 JR 24.0 7.1% 1.5 1.0 2 2 1 0
Wisconsin Garret Dooley OLB 6'3, 247 JR 19.5 5.8% 3.5 1.5 0 0 0 0
Wisconsin Sojourn Shelton CB 5'9, 168 SR 18.0 5.3% 1.0 0.0 1 6 0 1
Wisconsin Derrick Tindal CB 5'11, 175 JR 16.5 4.9% 0.5 0.0 3 7 1 0
Wisconsin Alec James DE 6'3, 266 JR 16.0 4.7% 3.0 3.0 0 0 1 0
Wisconsin Lubern Figaro S 6'0, 182 JR 15.5 4.6% 0.0 0.0 0 3 1 0
Wisconsin Zack Baun OLB 6'3, 231 FR 11.5 3.4% 3.5 0.0 0 0 1 0
Wisconsin Ryan Connelly ILB 6'3, 235 SO 10.0 3.0% 0.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Wisconsin Conor Sheehy DE 6'4, 288 JR 9.5 2.8% 2.0 1.5 0 0 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Nebraska Caleb Lightbourn 6'3, 220 FR 26 39.6 3 6 9 57.7%
Wisconsin Anthony Lotti 6'0, 186 FR 18 36.0 0 4 7 61.1%
Wisconsin P.J. Rosowski 6'3, 211 SO 14 36.9 0 5 3 57.1%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Nebraska Drew Brown 5'11, 195 JR 43 64.4 22 51.2% 0 0 0 0
Nebraska Spencer Lindsay 5'9, 210 SR 3 64.0 2 66.7% 0 0 0 0
Wisconsin P.J. Rosowski 6'3, 211 SO 36 63.7 22 61.1% 0 1 0 0
Wisconsin Andrew Endicott 5'9, 173 SR 2 47.0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Nebraska Drew Brown 5'11, 195 JR 29-29 7-9 77.8%
Nebraska Spencer Lindsay 5'9, 210 SR 1-1 0-0 #DIV/0!
Wisconsin Rafael Gaglianone 5'11, 219 JR 10-10 7-8 87.5%
Wisconsin Andrew Endicott 5'9, 173 SR 8-9 5-7 71.4%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Nebraska Tre Bryant 5'11, 200 FR 10 26.4 0 0 0 (0)
Nebraska Jordan Nelson 5'8, 180 SR 3 30.0 0 0 0 (0)
Wisconsin Dare Ogunbowale 5'11, 205 SR 8 21.0 0 0 0 (0)
Wisconsin Natrell Jamerson 6'0, 188 JR 3 20.0 0 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Nebraska De'Mornay Pierson-El 5'9, 185 JR 11 9.9 0 8 1 (0)
Nebraska Jordan Westerkamp 6'0, 200 SR 0 0.0 0 1 0 (0)
Wisconsin Jazz Peavy 6'0, 184 JR 8 6.3 0 5 0 (0)
Wisconsin Corey Clement 5'11, 227 SR 1 4.0 0 4 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics