Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-0) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (5-2)
October 29, 2016 ( 7:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Wisconsin -9
S&P+ Projection: Wisconsin (28.6-20.6)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Nebraska | Wisconsin | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 22 | 10 | ||
| Category | Nebraska offense | Wisconsin defense | Wisconsin offense | Nebraska defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.81 (47) | 4.57 (19) | 5.20 (86) | 5.12 (43) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 439.1 (41) | 294.7 (8) | 386.6 (89) | 343.3 (24) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.72 (29) | 1.19 (9) | 2.02 (82) | 1.43 (18) |
| Category | Nebraska offense | Wisconsin defense | Wisconsin offense | Nebraska defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 34.0 (34) | 12.4 (5) | 29.2 (65) | 22.6 (22) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 96.3 (87) | 135.7 (5) | 122.1 (15) | 101.7 (60) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 121.5 (22) | 128.5 (11) | 135.9 (6) | 110.1 (34) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 99.6 (78) | 135.4 (3) | 117.5 (14) | 101.4 (64) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 121.9 (30) | 124.4 (19) | 152.8 (2) | 117.6 (30) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 109.7 (55) | 146.6 (9) | 151.2 (2) | 100.1 (67) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 96.5 (89) | 146.2 (8) | 125.0 (18) | 95.9 (86) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 95.9 (87) | 137.1 (11) | 116.2 (31) | 130.9 (14) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 126.7 (8) | 111.1 (33) | 103.0 (63) | 126.2 (9) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Nebraska
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 6 offense vs. No. 79 defense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 21 defense vs. No. 57 offense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 36 defense vs. No. 70 offense)
- Q4 S&P+ (No. 3 vs. No. 36 )
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 1 offense vs. No. 30 defense)
Wisconsin
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 2 defense vs. No. 106 offense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 14 defense vs. No. 111 offense)
- Q2 S&P+ (No. 6 vs. No. 95 )
- Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 2 defense vs. No. 84 offense)
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 5 defense vs. No. 87 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Nebraska offense | Wisconsin defense | Wisconsin offense | Nebraska defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.22 (88) | 1.07 (4) | 1.20 (98) | 1.25 (70) |
| EFFICIENCY | 46.0% (28) | 38.6% (37) | 41.3% (71) | 39.2% (44) |
| FIELD POSITION | 32.9 (19) | 27.9 (42) | 30.2 (54) | 27.4 (31) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.0 (50) | 3.2 (7) | 4.0 (115) | 3.4 (13) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN |
EXPECTED: Nebraska -1.22 (89) Wisconsin 3.80 (24) |
ACTUAL Nebraska 5 (25) Wisconsin -1 (69) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Nebraska offense | Wisconsin offense |
| Adj. Pace | 2.0 (45) | 0.3 (60) |
| Plays per game | 75.6 (54) | 74.3 (67) |
| Possessions per game | 12.6 (91) | 12.0 (118) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 72.2% (10) | 69.1% (16) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 32.7% (69) | 29.1% (94) |
| % of solo tackles | 68.0% (110) | 68.0% (111) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Nebraska defense | Wisconsin defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 54.7% (101) | 60.9% (55) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 23.0% (125) | 25.4% (119) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 18.0% (31) | 18.5% (29) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 6.8% (115) | 10.2% (43) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 11.2% (2) | 8.1% (25) |
| PD to INC | 39.6% (18) | 36.6% (37) |
When Nebraska has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Nebraska Offense | Wisconsin Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 99.6 | 78 | 135.4 | 3 | Wisconsin big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 49.2 | 46 | 45.5 | 54 | |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.01 | 111 | 1.09 | 1 | Wisconsin big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.86 | 86 | 2.79 | 53 | Wisconsin |
| SD Sack Rate | 1.1% | 6 | 4% | 79 | Nebraska big |
Passing Downs
| Nebraska Offense | Wisconsin Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 121.9 | 30 | 124.4 | 19 | Wisconsin |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 38.8 | 15 | 25.4 | 23 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.80 | 56 | 1.74 | 102 | Nebraska |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.67 | 109 | 2.58 | 26 | Wisconsin big |
| PD Sack Rate | 4% | 20 | 10.3% | 28 | |
When Wisconsin has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Wisconsin Offense | Nebraska Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 117.5 | 14 | 101.4 | 64 | Wisconsin |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 43.8 | 108 | 45.3 | 51 | Nebraska big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.09 | 75 | 0.84 | 64 | Nebraska |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.11 | 47 | 2.73 | 47 | |
| SD Sack Rate | 3.9% | 41 | 7.9% | 20 | Nebraska |
Passing Downs
| Wisconsin Offense | Nebraska Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 152.8 | 2 | 117.6 | 30 | Wisconsin |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 35.1 | 29 | 27.7 | 37 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.52 | 111 | 1.89 | 67 | Nebraska |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 1.91 | 126 | 3.06 | 58 | Nebraska big |
| PD Sack Rate | 10.5% | 103 | 6.1% | 89 | Nebraska |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Nebraska | Tommy Armstrong Jr. | 6'1, 220 | SR | 103 | 186 | 1611 | 11 | 5 | 55.4% | 5 | 2.6% | 8.2 |
| Nebraska | Ryker Fyfe | 6'3, 215 | SR | 2 | 5 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 40.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 8.2 |
| Wisconsin | Alex Hornibrook | 6'4, 219 | FR | 65 | 115 | 877 | 5 | 6 | 56.5% | 10 | 8.0% | 6.4 |
| Wisconsin | Bart Houston | 6'4, 235 | SR | 48 | 77 | 586 | 3 | 2 | 62.3% | 4 | 4.9% | 7.0 |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
| Nebraska | Terrell Newby | RB | 5'10, 200 | SR | 103 | 511 | 4 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 38.8% |
| Nebraska | Devine Ozigbo | RB | 6'0, 230 | SO | 77 | 320 | 4 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 44.2% |
| Nebraska | Tommy Armstrong Jr. | QB | 6'1, 220 | SR | 76 | 430 | 6 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 42.1% |
| Nebraska | Tre Bryant | RB | 5'11, 200 | FR | 19 | 75 | 1 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 36.8% |
| Wisconsin | Corey Clement | RB | 5'11, 227 | SR | 143 | 617 | 6 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 26.6% |
| Wisconsin | Dare Ogunbowale | RB | 5'11, 205 | SR | 53 | 218 | 1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 32.1% |
| Wisconsin | Bradrick Shaw | RB | 6'1, 211 | FR | 26 | 150 | 1 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 57.7% |
| Wisconsin | Taiwan Deal | RB | 6'1, 224 | SO | 20 | 94 | 0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 45.0% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch |
Yds/ Target |
Catch Rate |
| Nebraska | Stanley Morgan Jr. | WR | 6'1, 200 | SO | 32 | 18 | 271 | 1 | 15.1 | 8.5 | 56.2% |
| Nebraska | Brandon Reilly | WR | 6'2, 200 | SR | 25 | 10 | 230 | 0 | 23.0 | 9.2 | 40.0% |
| Nebraska | Alonzo Moore | WR | 6'2, 195 | SR | 22 | 13 | 324 | 2 | 24.9 | 14.7 | 59.1% |
| Nebraska | Jordan Westerkamp | WR | 6'0, 200 | SR | 22 | 13 | 228 | 4 | 17.5 | 10.4 | 59.1% |
| Nebraska | De'Mornay Pierson-El | WR | 5'9, 185 | JR | 19 | 9 | 130 | 1 | 14.4 | 6.8 | 47.4% |
| Nebraska | Cethan Carter | TE | 6'4, 240 | SR | 18 | 10 | 101 | 1 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 55.6% |
| Nebraska | Terrell Newby | RB | 5'10, 200 | SR | 14 | 11 | 89 | 0 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 78.6% |
| Wisconsin | Jazz Peavy | WR | 6'0, 184 | JR | 52 | 24 | 383 | 3 | 16.0 | 7.4 | 46.2% |
| Wisconsin | Troy Fumagalli | TE | 6'6, 248 | JR | 35 | 25 | 303 | 1 | 12.1 | 8.7 | 71.4% |
| Wisconsin | Robert Wheelwright | WR | 6'3, 211 | SR | 33 | 20 | 310 | 0 | 15.5 | 9.4 | 60.6% |
| Wisconsin | Dare Ogunbowale | RB | 5'11, 205 | SR | 18 | 12 | 87 | 1 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 66.7% |
| Wisconsin | George Rushing | WR | 6'1, 192 | JR | 9 | 8 | 82 | 0 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 88.9% |
| Wisconsin | Kyle Penniston | TE | 6'4, 236 | FR | 7 | 4 | 89 | 1 | 22.3 | 12.7 | 57.1% |
| Wisconsin | Alec Ingold | FB | 6'2, 238 | SO | 7 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 57.1% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Nebraska | Kieron Williams | S | 6'1, 195 | JR | 38.5 | 11.5% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Nathan Gerry | S | 6'2, 220 | SR | 33.5 | 10.0% | 5.5 | 0.5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Dedrick Young II | LB | 6'1, 220 | SO | 33.5 | 10.0% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Josh Banderas | LB | 6'3, 240 | SR | 32.0 | 9.6% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Joshua Kalu | CB | 6'1, 190 | JR | 29.0 | 8.7% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Ross Dzuris | DE | 6'3, 255 | SR | 18.5 | 5.5% | 7.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nebraska | Michael Rose-Ivey | LB | 6'0, 230 | SR | 18.5 | 5.5% | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Aaron Williams | S | 5'11, 185 | SO | 17.5 | 5.2% | 2.5 | 1.0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Chris Jones | CB | 6'0, 185 | JR | 17.0 | 5.1% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Kevin Maurice | DT | 6'3, 300 | SR | 11.5 | 3.4% | 3.5 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Freedom Akinmoladun | DE | 6'4, 255 | SO | 10.0 | 3.0% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Marcus Newby | LB | 6'1, 235 | JR | 8.5 | 2.5% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Carlos Davis | DT | 6'2, 295 | FR | 7.5 | 2.2% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Jack Cichy | ILB | 6'2, 233 | JR | 52.5 | 15.6% | 7.0 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | T.J. Edwards | ILB | 6'1, 244 | SO | 32.5 | 9.6% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | T.J. Watt | OLB | 6'5, 243 | JR | 31.5 | 9.3% | 9.5 | 7.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Leo Musso | S | 5'10, 194 | SR | 26.0 | 7.7% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Wisconsin | D'Cota Dixon | S | 5'10, 197 | JR | 24.0 | 7.1% | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Garret Dooley | OLB | 6'3, 247 | JR | 19.5 | 5.8% | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Sojourn Shelton | CB | 5'9, 168 | SR | 18.0 | 5.3% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 |
| Wisconsin | Derrick Tindal | CB | 5'11, 175 | JR | 16.5 | 4.9% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Alec James | DE | 6'3, 266 | JR | 16.0 | 4.7% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Lubern Figaro | S | 6'0, 182 | JR | 15.5 | 4.6% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Zack Baun | OLB | 6'3, 231 | FR | 11.5 | 3.4% | 3.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Ryan Connelly | ILB | 6'3, 235 | SO | 10.0 | 3.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Conor Sheehy | DE | 6'4, 288 | JR | 9.5 | 2.8% | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Nebraska | Caleb Lightbourn | 6'3, 220 | FR | 26 | 39.6 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 57.7% |
| Wisconsin | Anthony Lotti | 6'0, 186 | FR | 18 | 36.0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 61.1% |
| Wisconsin | P.J. Rosowski | 6'3, 211 | SO | 14 | 36.9 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 57.1% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches |
Onside Att |
Onside Success |
| Nebraska | Drew Brown | 5'11, 195 | JR | 43 | 64.4 | 22 | 51.2% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Spencer Lindsay | 5'9, 210 | SR | 3 | 64.0 | 2 | 66.7% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | P.J. Rosowski | 6'3, 211 | SO | 36 | 63.7 | 22 | 61.1% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Andrew Endicott | 5'9, 173 | SR | 2 | 47.0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Nebraska | Drew Brown | 5'11, 195 | JR | 29-29 | 7-9 | 77.8% |
| Nebraska | Spencer Lindsay | 5'9, 210 | SR | 1-1 | 0-0 | #DIV/0! |
| Wisconsin | Rafael Gaglianone | 5'11, 219 | JR | 10-10 | 7-8 | 87.5% |
| Wisconsin | Andrew Endicott | 5'9, 173 | SR | 8-9 | 5-7 | 71.4% |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Nebraska | Tre Bryant | 5'11, 200 | FR | 10 | 26.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Nebraska | Jordan Nelson | 5'8, 180 | SR | 3 | 30.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Wisconsin | Dare Ogunbowale | 5'11, 205 | SR | 8 | 21.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Wisconsin | Natrell Jamerson | 6'0, 188 | JR | 3 | 20.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Nebraska | De'Mornay Pierson-El | 5'9, 185 | JR | 11 | 9.9 | 0 | 8 | 1 (0) |
| Nebraska | Jordan Westerkamp | 6'0, 200 | SR | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 (0) |
| Wisconsin | Jazz Peavy | 6'0, 184 | JR | 8 | 6.3 | 0 | 5 | 0 (0) |
| Wisconsin | Corey Clement | 5'11, 227 | SR | 1 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics