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Stanford 41, USC 22: Cardinal blew early chances but still pulled away

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Stanford 41, USC 22

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Stanford USC Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 64 69
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 97.0%
Avg Starting FP 37.0 23.5 29.8
Possessions 9 10
Scoring Opportunities*
7 5
Points Per Opportunity 4.86 4.80 4.73
Leverage Rate** 79.7% 67.7% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.666 0.598 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Stanford USC
Total 41.9 33.4
Rushing 26.8 18.7
Passing 15.1 14.7
Success Rate (what's this?) Stanford USC Nat'l Avg
All (close) 51.6% 50.8% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 52.0% 60.7% 42.6%
Passing (close) 50.0% 43.2% 40.6%
Standard Downs 52.9% 61.4% 46.9%
Passing Downs 46.2% 28.6% 30.4%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Stanford USC Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.27 0.96 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.03 1.10 1.07
Passing (close) 2.15 0.81 1.48
Standard Downs 1.02 0.92 1.11
Passing Downs 2.37 1.14 1.77
Line Stats Stanford USC Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.20 3.79 2.88
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 12.5% 0.0% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 20.0% 7.5%
Turnovers Stanford USC
Turnovers 0 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 8.0
Turnover Margin Stanford +1
Exp. TO Margin Stanford +1.61
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) USC +0.61
TO Points Margin Stanford +8.0 points
Situational Stanford USC
Q1 S&P 0.608 0.407
Q2 S&P 0.658 0.418
Q3 S&P 0.756 0.741
Q4 S&P 0.707 0.673
1st Down S&P 0.730 0.521
2nd Down S&P 0.627 0.653
3rd Down S&P 0.634 0.573
Projected Scoring Margin: Stanford by 16.5
Actual Scoring Margin: Stanford by 19

It was like a flashback for a while. Stanford was up 13-3 at halftime, but only poor finishing had prevented the Cardinal from already putting the game away. Four trips inside the USC 15 should have produced a lot more than a TD, two field goals, and a turnover on downs. USC found some offense early in the third quarter and surged into the lead ... and then Stanford put an end to the proceedings.

Previous Stanford teams didn't have this version of Christian McCaffrey and a senior Kevin Hogan. So any struggle with finding the end zone was merely temporary. USC acquitted itself relatively well -- 51% success rate, awesome run numbers despite a slow start -- but Stanford's just better.