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Bowling Green 34, Northern Illinois 14: Turnovers thwarted a potential upset bid

Sage Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Bowling Green 34, Northern Illinois 14

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Basics Bowling Green Northern Illinois Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 90 66
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 71.2%
Avg Starting FP 31.3 25.7 29.8
Possessions 15 14
Scoring Opportunities*
7 5
Points Per Opportunity 5.00 1.40 4.73
Leverage Rate** 83.8% 62.2% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.632 0.359 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Bowling Green Northern Illinois
Total 46.5 23.7
Rushing 26.1 10.6
Passing 20.4 13.2
Success Rate (what's this?) Bowling Green Northern Illinois Nat'l Avg
All (close) 50.0% 24.3% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 56.8% 25.0% 42.6%
Passing (close) 43.2% 23.1% 40.6%
Standard Downs 53.2% 30.4% 46.9%
Passing Downs 33.3% 14.3% 30.4%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Bowling Green Northern Illinois Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.16 0.82 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.08 0.90 1.07
Passing (close) 1.27 0.68 1.48
Standard Downs 1.10 0.65 1.11
Passing Downs 1.64 1.43 1.77
Line Stats Bowling Green Northern Illinois Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 4.27 1.77 2.88
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 20.0% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 16.7% 0.0% 7.5%
Turnovers Bowling Green Northern Illinois
Turnovers 2 5
Turnover Points (what's this?) 13.8 16.0
Turnover Margin Bowling Green +3
Exp. TO Margin Bowling Green +1.24
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Bowling Green +1.76
TO Points Margin Bowling Green +2.3 points
Situational Bowling Green Northern Illinois
Q1 S&P 0.609 0.453
Q2 S&P 0.644 0.381
Q3 S&P 0.645 0.567
Q4 S&P 0.453 0.541
1st Down S&P 0.583 0.460
2nd Down S&P 0.596 0.535
3rd Down S&P 0.597 0.498
Projected Scoring Margin: Bowling Green by 25.1
Actual Scoring Margin: Bowling Green by 20

It's always a shame when you can't bring your full-strength team to a conference title game, especially your full-strength quarterback. Tommy Fiedler was asked to keep up with BGSU's offense, and he came into the game having thrown 17 career passes. It didn't go well.

It's a double shame when QB mistakes make a clear difference in the game. BGSU's own mistakes -- early blown opportunities (a turnover on downs and a dumb INT) -- kept NIU reasonably close for a while, and in the end, the Huskies might have had a decent comeback shot if not for turnovers at the BGSU 4, 8, 22, and 44. Alas.