Bowling Green 34, Northern Illinois 14
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|Basics||Bowling Green||Northern Illinois||Nat'l Avg|
|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||71.2%|
|Avg Starting FP||31.3||25.7||29.8|
|Points Per Opportunity||5.00||1.40||4.73|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Bowling Green||Northern Illinois|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Bowling Green||Northern Illinois||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Bowling Green||Northern Illinois||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Bowling Green||Northern Illinois||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||4.27||1.77||2.88|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||20.0%||4.9%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||16.7%||0.0%||7.5%|
|Turnovers||Bowling Green||Northern Illinois|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||13.8||16.0|
|Turnover Margin||Bowling Green +3|
|Exp. TO Margin||Bowling Green +1.24|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Bowling Green +1.76|
|TO Points Margin||Bowling Green +2.3 points|
|Situational||Bowling Green||Northern Illinois|
|1st Down S&P||0.583||0.460|
|2nd Down S&P||0.596||0.535|
|3rd Down S&P||0.597||0.498|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Bowling Green by 25.1|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Bowling Green by 20|
It's always a shame when you can't bring your full-strength team to a conference title game, especially your full-strength quarterback. Tommy Fiedler was asked to keep up with BGSU's offense, and he came into the game having thrown 17 career passes. It didn't go well.
It's a double shame when QB mistakes make a clear difference in the game. BGSU's own mistakes -- early blown opportunities (a turnover on downs and a dumb INT) -- kept NIU reasonably close for a while, and in the end, the Huskies might have had a decent comeback shot if not for turnovers at the BGSU 4, 8, 22, and 44. Alas.