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Bowling Green 34, Northern Illinois 14
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Bowling Green | Northern Illinois | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 90 | 66 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 71.2% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 31.3 | 25.7 | 29.8 |
| Possessions | 15 | 14 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
7 | 5 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.00 | 1.40 | 4.73 |
| Leverage Rate** | 83.8% | 62.2% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.632 | 0.359 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Bowling Green | Northern Illinois | |
| Total | 46.5 | 23.7 | |
| Rushing | 26.1 | 10.6 | |
| Passing | 20.4 | 13.2 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Bowling Green | Northern Illinois | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 50.0% | 24.3% | 41.6% |
| Rushing (close) | 56.8% | 25.0% | 42.6% |
| Passing (close) | 43.2% | 23.1% | 40.6% |
| Standard Downs | 53.2% | 30.4% | 46.9% |
| Passing Downs | 33.3% | 14.3% | 30.4% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Bowling Green | Northern Illinois | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.16 | 0.82 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.08 | 0.90 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 1.27 | 0.68 | 1.48 |
| Standard Downs | 1.10 | 0.65 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 1.64 | 1.43 | 1.77 |
| Line Stats | Bowling Green | Northern Illinois | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 4.27 | 1.77 | 2.88 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 20.0% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 16.7% | 0.0% | 7.5% |
| Turnovers | Bowling Green | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 5 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 13.8 | 16.0 |
| Turnover Margin | Bowling Green +3 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Bowling Green +1.24 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Bowling Green +1.76 | |
| TO Points Margin | Bowling Green +2.3 points | |
| Situational | Bowling Green | Northern Illinois |
| Q1 S&P | 0.609 | 0.453 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.644 | 0.381 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.645 | 0.567 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.453 | 0.541 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.583 | 0.460 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.596 | 0.535 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.597 | 0.498 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Bowling Green by 25.1 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Bowling Green by 20 | ||
It's always a shame when you can't bring your full-strength team to a conference title game, especially your full-strength quarterback. Tommy Fiedler was asked to keep up with BGSU's offense, and he came into the game having thrown 17 career passes. It didn't go well.
It's a double shame when QB mistakes make a clear difference in the game. BGSU's own mistakes -- early blown opportunities (a turnover on downs and a dumb INT) -- kept NIU reasonably close for a while, and in the end, the Huskies might have had a decent comeback shot if not for turnovers at the BGSU 4, 8, 22, and 44. Alas.