Alabama 29, Florida 15
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|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||93.0%|
|Avg Starting FP||36.3||18.7||29.8|
|Points Per Opportunity||3.38||3.50||4.73|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Alabama||Florida|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Alabama||Florida||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Alabama||Florida||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Alabama||Florida||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||3.32||2.21||2.88|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||12.5%||4.9%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||16.7%||23.5%||7.5%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||4.3||3.1|
|Exp. TO Margin||Florida +0.73|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Alabama +0.73|
|TO Points Margin||Florida +1.3 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.550||0.555|
|2nd Down S&P||0.599||0.619|
|3rd Down S&P||0.557||0.555|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Alabama by 25.7|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Alabama by 14|
It took some creativity to keep Florida within 14 points in this game. Based on scoring opportunities created, it should have been about 38-9. But Alabama missed a short field goal and lost a fumble at the UF 28, and Antonio Callaway's long punt return score allowed Florida to actually lead late in the first half.
And then reality took over. This is the best Alabama defense since 2011, and Florida's offense fell into a crater a month ago. A 10% success rate is only going to keep you in the game for so long.
This game showed both why a) Alabama should be a comfortable favorite against Michigan State in the semifinals, and b) Michigan State could still have a chance. The Tide offense is maybe Nick Saban's worst since 2007, and while Derrick Henry is a lovely engine, it takes Alabama a while to distance itself from an opponent, especially one with a defense that limits big-play opportunities. Michigan State will need only a couple of breaks to stick around into the fourth quarter.
At the same time ... you can't run the ball on Alabama. You just can't. And you can barely throw. Unless you get a return score or two, or you end up +5 in the turnover battle like Ole Miss did, it's going to be very difficult to remain ahead of Alabama after 60 minutes.