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Week 14 S&P+ Picks

Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

S&P+ against the spread

Every good run must come to an end...

  • Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
  • Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
  • Week 3: 28-23-1 (55%)
  • Week 4: 29-21-2 (57%)
  • Week 5: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 6: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 7: 20-36 (36%)
  • Week 8: 33-21-1 (61%)
  • Week 9: 25-26-1 (49%)
  • Week 10: 31-26-2 (54%)
  • Week 11: 31-27 (53%)
  • Week 12: 36-22 (62%)
  • Week 13: 27-33-2 (45%)
  • OVERALL: 359-333-9 (52%)

Still at 54% for the last six weeks, but Rivalry Week included some funkiness ... at least as far as the spread goes. The straight-up picks were the same as ever.

Win probabilities

Win Prob. Range Last Week Overall Win%
50-59% 8-10 81-73 52.6%
60-69% 13-6 115-48 70.6%
70-79% 7-1 136-29 82.4%
80-89% 12-1 146-25 85.4%
90-99% 4-0 155-5 96.9%

Friday

Oh, and just so it's on the record (since I won't have a picks post for one game): I'm looking at Navy 49.0, Army 11.5 next week.

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
8:00 PM ESPN2 Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois +12 Bowling Green (35.1-26.3) 8.9 69.6% Northern Illinois

Saturday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
12:00 PM ESPN2 Southern Miss at Western Kentucky -7.5 Western Kentucky (39.1-25.8) 13.3 77.9% Western Kentucky
12:00 PM ABC Temple at Houston -7 Temple (27.4-27.1) 0.3 50.8% Temple
12:00 PM ESPN Texas at Baylor -20.5 Baylor (45.4-19.2) 26.2 93.5% Baylor
2:00 PM ESPN3 Georgia State at Georgia Southern -21 Georgia Southern (40.5-19.4) 21.0 88.8% Georgia Southern
3:00 PM ESPN3 New Mexico State at UL-Monroe New Mexico State (30.8-28.5) 2.3 55.2%
3:00 PM ESPN3 Texas State at Arkansas State -25.5 Arkansas State (39.1-23.5) 15.6 81.7% Texas State
4:00 PM CBS Florida vs. Alabama -17.5 Alabama (28.2-16.2) 12.0 75.6% Florida
4:30 PM FS1 West Virginia at Kansas State +6.5 West Virginia (35.5-21.5) 14.0 79.1% West Virginia
5:00 PM ESPN3 Troy at UL-Lafayette -2.5 Troy (28.8-28.1) 0.7 51.5% Troy
7:30 PM ESPN2 Air Force at San Diego State -4.5 San Diego State (29.6-25.5) 4.2 59.5% Air Force
7:30 PM ESPN3 Appalachian State at South Alabama +18 Appalachian State (38.9-19.5) 19.4 86.9% Appalachian State
7:45 PM ESPN USC vs. Stanford -4.5 Stanford (34.0-32.4) 1.6 53.7% USC
8:00 PM Fox Michigan State vs. Iowa +3.5 Michigan State (30.2-25.1) 5.1 61.5% Michigan State
8:00 PM ABC North Carolina vs. Clemson -5 Clemson (37.8-23.0) 14.8 80.4% Clemson