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S&P+ against the spread
Every good run must come to an end...
- Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
- Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
- Week 3: 28-23-1 (55%)
- Week 4: 29-21-2 (57%)
- Week 5: 27-28 (49%)
- Week 6: 27-28 (49%)
- Week 7: 20-36 (36%)
- Week 8: 33-21-1 (61%)
- Week 9: 25-26-1 (49%)
- Week 10: 31-26-2 (54%)
- Week 11: 31-27 (53%)
- Week 12: 36-22 (62%)
- Week 13: 27-33-2 (45%)
- OVERALL: 359-333-9 (52%)
Still at 54% for the last six weeks, but Rivalry Week included some funkiness ... at least as far as the spread goes. The straight-up picks were the same as ever.
Win probabilities
| Win Prob. Range | Last Week | Overall | Win% |
| 50-59% | 8-10 | 81-73 | 52.6% |
| 60-69% | 13-6 | 115-48 | 70.6% |
| 70-79% | 7-1 | 136-29 | 82.4% |
| 80-89% | 12-1 | 146-25 | 85.4% |
| 90-99% | 4-0 | 155-5 | 96.9% |
Friday
Oh, and just so it's on the record (since I won't have a picks post for one game): I'm looking at Navy 49.0, Army 11.5 next week.
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois | +12 | Bowling Green (35.1-26.3) | 8.9 | 69.6% | Northern Illinois |
Saturday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Southern Miss at Western Kentucky | -7.5 | Western Kentucky (39.1-25.8) | 13.3 | 77.9% | Western Kentucky |
| 12:00 PM | ABC | Temple at Houston | -7 | Temple (27.4-27.1) | 0.3 | 50.8% | Temple |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN | Texas at Baylor | -20.5 | Baylor (45.4-19.2) | 26.2 | 93.5% | Baylor |
| 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Georgia State at Georgia Southern | -21 | Georgia Southern (40.5-19.4) | 21.0 | 88.8% | Georgia Southern |
| 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | New Mexico State at UL-Monroe | New Mexico State (30.8-28.5) | 2.3 | 55.2% | ||
| 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Texas State at Arkansas State | -25.5 | Arkansas State (39.1-23.5) | 15.6 | 81.7% | Texas State |
| 4:00 PM | CBS | Florida vs. Alabama | -17.5 | Alabama (28.2-16.2) | 12.0 | 75.6% | Florida |
| 4:30 PM | FS1 | West Virginia at Kansas State | +6.5 | West Virginia (35.5-21.5) | 14.0 | 79.1% | West Virginia |
| 5:00 PM | ESPN3 | Troy at UL-Lafayette | -2.5 | Troy (28.8-28.1) | 0.7 | 51.5% | Troy |
| 7:30 PM | ESPN2 | Air Force at San Diego State | -4.5 | San Diego State (29.6-25.5) | 4.2 | 59.5% | Air Force |
| 7:30 PM | ESPN3 | Appalachian State at South Alabama | +18 | Appalachian State (38.9-19.5) | 19.4 | 86.9% | Appalachian State |
| 7:45 PM | ESPN | USC vs. Stanford | -4.5 | Stanford (34.0-32.4) | 1.6 | 53.7% | USC |
| 8:00 PM | Fox | Michigan State vs. Iowa | +3.5 | Michigan State (30.2-25.1) | 5.1 | 61.5% | Michigan State |
| 8:00 PM | ABC | North Carolina vs. Clemson | -5 | Clemson (37.8-23.0) | 14.8 | 80.4% | Clemson |