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2015 college football bowl win probability charts

Your one-stop shop for all the Win Probability Graphs from the Bowl Season

By millsGT49

Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl: Utah 35 - BYU 28

byu_utah

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Utah Win Probability

Utah WPA

1

15

BYU

1

10

79

1

Tanner Mangum Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION

0.692

0.171

2

9

Utah

4

1

5

1

Joe Williams Rush for 4, FIRST DOWN

0.607

0.107

3

183

BYU

2

4

4

4

Tanner Mangum Rush for 4, TOUCHDOWN

0.946

-0.091

4

22

BYU

3

4

68

1

Tanner Mangum Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION

0.866

0.084

5

194

Utah

2

11

42

4

Team Team Rush for -1

0.922

0.078

Gildan New Mexico Bowl: Arizona 45 - New Mexico 37

nm_ua_wp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

NM Predicted WP

NM WPA

1

38

Arizona

1

10

55

1

Anu Solomon Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION

0.288

0.221

2

89

New Mexico

3

12

92

2

Lamar Jordan Pass to Delane Hart-Johnson for 92, TOUCHDOWN

0.109

0.220

3

23

Arizona

2

8

78

1

Anu Solomon Pass to Cayleb Jones for 78, TOUCHDOWN

0.602

-0.205

4

7

Arizona

2

3

63

1

Anu Solomon Pass to Nate Phillips for 0

0.459

0.152

5

21

New Mexico

1

10

37

1

Lamar Jordan Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION

0.703

-0.117

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl: App State 31 - Ohio 29

appst_ohio

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

App State Predicted WP

App State WPA

1

194

Appalachian State

3

5

6

4

FIELD_GOAL

0.628

0.372

2

151

Appalachian State

3

7

8

4

Taylor Lamb Pass to Barrett Burns for 8, TOUCHDOWN

0.495

0.239

3

79

Appalachian State

1

15

90

2

Taylor Lamb Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION

0.634

-0.233

4

143

Appalachian State

1

10

26

4

Marcus Cox Rush for 26, TOUCHDOWN

0.159

0.180

5

113

Appalachian State

1

10

55

3

Taylor Lamb Pass to Ike Lewis for 0

0.206

-0.167

Autonation Cure Bowl: San Jose State 27 - Georgia State 16

sjs_gsu_wp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Georgia State Predicted WP

Georgia State WPA

1

135

San Jose State

2

6

42

4

Kenny Potter Rush for 42, TOUCHDOWN

0.553

-0.296

2

130

Georgia State

2

9

19

4

Nick Arbuckle Pass to Todd Boyd for 19, TOUCHDOWN

0.435

0.253

3

48

Georgia State

4

1

66

2

PUNT

0.363

-0.162

4

125

San Jose State

5

0

0

4

KICKOFF

0.268

0.153

5

142

Georgia State

4

1

51

4

Nick Arbuckle Pass to Penny Hart for 0

0.304

-0.128

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana Tech 47 - Arkansas State 28

loust_akst_wp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

LaTech Predicted WP

LaTech WPA

1

131

Louisiana Tech

2

11

59

3

Jeff Driskel Pass to Kenneth Dixon for 59, TOUCHDOWN

0.543

0.225

2

6

Louisiana Tech

1

10

57

1

Jeff Driskel Pass to Carlos Henderson for 53, FIRST DOWN

0.562

0.138

3

120

Arkansas State

1

10

65

3

Fredi Knighten Pass to Tres Houston for 28, FIRST DOWN

0.565

-0.106

4

106

Arkansas State

3

11

66

3

Fredi Knighten Rush for -10

0.517

0.103

5

53

Louisiana Tech

3

3

56

2

Jeff Driskel Pass to Trent Taylor for 45, FIRST DOWN

0.733

0.102

Miami Beach Bowl: Western Kentucky 45 - USF 35

usf_wk_wp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

USF Predicted WP

USF WPA

1

124

Western Kentucky

3

4

69

3

Brandon Doughty Pass to Nicholas Norris for 69, TOUCHDOWN

0.653

-0.253

2

186

Western Kentucky

2

7

37

4

Brandon Doughty Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION

0.212

0.230

3

180

South Florida

2

7

8

4

Quinton Flowers Rush for 8, TOUCHDOWN

0.166

0.170

4

133

Western Kentucky

1

10

55

3

Brandon Doughty Pass to Nicholas Norris for 55, TOUCHDOWN

0.304

-0.150

5

146

South Florida

2

7

34

3

D'Ernest Johnson Pass to Tyre McCants for 34, TOUCHDOWN

0.215

0.143

Marmot Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo 32 - Temple 17

temple_toledo_wp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Toledo Predicted WP

Toledo WPA

1

135

Toledo

1

10

80

4

Phillip Ely Pass to Cody Thompson for 80, TOUCHDOWN

0.712

0.214

2

27

Temple

3

11

33

1

P.J. Walker Pass to Robby Anderson for 20, FIRST DOWN

0.432

-0.106

3

36

Toledo

4

8

73

2

PUNT

0.332

0.102

4

44

Toledo

3

3

26

2

Phillip Ely Pass to Corey Jones for 26, TOUCHDOWN

0.568

0.094

5

128

Temple

3

12

66

4

PENALTY

0.656

-0.083

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Akron 23 - Utah State 21

akron_utahstate_wp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Utah State Predicted WP

Utah State WPA

1

197

Utah State

1

10

88

4

Chuckie Keeton Pass to Hunter Sharp for -4

0.404

-0.404

2

91

Utah State

2

7

28

2

Kent Myers Rush for -4, FUMBLE

0.509

-0.286

3

186

Utah State

1

2

2

4

Chuckie Keeton Pass to Brandon Swindall for 2, TOUCHDOWN

0.207

0.183

4

189

Utah State

5

0

0

4

KICKOFF

0.389

-0.151

5

99

Utah State

3

17

46

3

Kent Myers Rush for 27, FIRST DOWN

0.301

0.137

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: Boise State 55 - Northern Illinois 7

boise_niu_wp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

NIU Predicted WP

NIU WPA

1

19

Northern Illinois

3

6

26

1

Ryan Graham Rush for -7, FUMBLE

0.382

-0.125

2

3

Boise State

2

3

68

1

Brett Rypien Pass to Jeremy McNichols for 39, FIRST DOWN

0.473

-0.101

3

12

Northern Illinois

4

1

55

1

Joel Bouagnon Rush for 4, FIRST DOWN

0.295

0.081

4

16

Northern Illinois

3

8

38

1

Ryan Graham Pass to Desroy Maxwell for 8, FIRST DOWN

0.352

0.070

5

75

Boise State

2

9

59

2

Brett Rypien Rush for -10, FUMBLE

0.047

0.062

GoDaddy Bowl: Georgia Southern 58 - Bowling Green 27

gsu_bg_wp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Bowling Green Predicted WP

Bowling Green WPA

1

128

Georgia Southern

1

10

80

3

Favian Upshaw Rush for 80, TOUCHDOWN

0.346

-0.211

2

89

Georgia Southern

4

5

31

2

Kevin Ellison Pass to Montay Crockett for 31, TOUCHDOWN

0.611

-0.210

3

94

Bowling Green

3

3

59

2

Travis Greene Rush for 52, FIRST DOWN

0.412

0.175

4

76

Bowling Green

4

11

81

2

PUNT

0.541

0.118

5

113

Georgia Southern

3

7

21

3

Wesley Fields Rush for 18, FIRST DOWN

0.550

-0.115

Popeyes Bahamas Bowl: Western Michigan 45 - MiddleTennessee 31

wmu_mtsu_wp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Western Michigan Predicted WP

Western Michigan WPA

1

143

Western Michigan

2

15

68

4

Zach Terrell Pass to Daniel Braverman for 68, TOUCHDOWN

0.534

0.318

2

152

Middle Tennessee

2

10

29

4

Brent Stockstill Pass to Richie James for 29, TOUCHDOWN

0.754

-0.268

3

104

Western Michigan

4

1

46

3

Jamauri Bogan Rush for 46, TOUCHDOWN

0.517

0.220

4

51

Western Michigan

2

5

80

1

Zach Terrell Pass to Corey Davis for 80, TOUCHDOWN

0.263

0.217

5

61

Western Michigan

1

10

73

2

Zach Terrell Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION

0.523

-0.176

Hawai'i Bowl: San Diego State 42 - Cincinnati 7

sdsu_cin_wp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Cincinnati Predicted WP

Cincinnate WPA

1

1

Cincinnati

5

0

0

1

KICKOFF

0.464

-0.125

2

69

Cincinnati

1

10

47

2

Hayden Moore Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION

0.136

-0.074

3

23

Cincinnati

2

7

54

1

Hayden Moore Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION

0.157

-0.063

4

17

San Diego State

3

2

14

1

Christian Chapman Pass to Mikah Holder for 14, TOUCHDOWN

0.190

-0.061

5

7

Cincinnati

4

6

70

1

PUNT

0.257

0.056

St. Petersburg Bowl: Marshall 16 - Connecticut 10

marsh_conn_wp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Marshall Predicted WP

Marshall WPA

1

108

Connecticut

2

8

52

3

Bryant Shirreffs Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION

0.675

0.121

2

165

Marshall

1

10

41

4

Team Team Rush for -1

0.910

0.090

3

125

Connecticut

4

10

35

3

FIELD_GOAL

0.732

-0.085

4

7

Marshall

2

9

69

1

Chase Litton Pass to Deandre Reaves for 21, FIRST DOWN

0.507

0.078

5

119

Marshall

4

6

25

3

FIELD_GOAL

0.796

-0.077

Hyundai Sun Bowl: Washington State 20 - Miami 14

miami_wsu_wp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

WSU Predicted WP

WSU WPA

1

169

Miami (Florida)

2

5

5

4

Mark Walton Rush for 1, FUMBLE

0.656

0.184

2

42

Miami (Florida)

1

10

15

2

Brad Kaaya Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION

0.341

0.161

3

45

Washington State

1

10

68

2

Gerard Wicks Rush for -2, FUMBLE

0.534

-0.160

4

175

Miami (Florida)

1

10

28

4

Joseph Yearby Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION

0.698

0.153

5

182

Washington State

2

16

72

4

Team Team Rush for -5

0.859

0.141

Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl: Washington 44 - Southern Miss 31

uw_usm_wp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

USM Predicted WP

USM WPA

1

143

Washington

1

10

86

3

Myles Gaskin Rush for 86, TOUCHDOWN

0.492

-0.271

2

34

Southern Mississippi

2

8

56

1

Nick Mullens Pass to Mike Thomas for 56, TOUCHDOWN

0.317

0.160

3

40

Washington

3

9

33

1

Jake Browning Pass to Dante Pettis for 29, FIRST DOWN

0.425

-0.134

4

131

Washington

1

10

52

3

Jake Browning Pass to Marvin Hall for 9

0.166

0.124

5

139

Southern Mississippi

3

1

2

3

Ito Smith Rush for 2, TOUCHDOWN

0.370

0.116

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Duke 44 - Indiana 41

*** There is a bug in the overtime code right now so the OT values aren't correct ***

Indiani_duke_wp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Duke Predicted WP

Duke WPA

1

246

Indiana

4

6

21

5

FIELD_GOAL

0.354

0.646

2

183

Indiana

5

0

0

4

KICKOFF

0.143

0.369

3

238

Indiana

1

10

39

4

FIELD_GOAL

0.341

0.257

4

226

Duke

2

5

5

4

Thomas Sirk Rush for 5, TOUCHDOWN

0.274

0.249

5

100

Duke

2

10

73

2

Thomas Sirk Rush for 73, TOUCHDOWN

0.352

0.249

Camping World Independence Bowl: Virginia Tech 55 - Tulsa 52

vt_tulsa_wp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

VT Predicted WP

VT WPA

1

207

Tulsa

3

11

36

4

Dane Evans Pass to Keyarris Garrett for 36, TOUCHDOWN

0.904

-0.234

2

228

Virginia Tech

2

10

32

4

Team Team Rush for 0

0.809

0.191

3

21

Virginia Tech

1

10

75

1

Michael Brewer Pass to Isaiah Ford for 75, TOUCHDOWN

0.320

0.148

4

226

Tulsa

4

16

60

4

Dane Evans Rush for -8

0.707

0.116

5

14

Tulsa

1

10

75

1

Zack Langer Rush for 43, FIRST DOWN

0.484

-0.106

Foster Farms Bowl: Nebraska 37 - UCLA 29

neb_ucla_wp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Nebraska Predicted WP

Nebraska WPA

1

12

UCLA

4

1

23

1

Josh Rosen Pass to Thomas Duarte for 22, FIRST DOWN

0.434

-0.149

2

51

UCLA

1

10

60

2

Josh Rosen Pass to Kenneth Walker III for 60, TOUCHDOWN

0.443

-0.143

3

47

Nebraska

2

10

20

2

Tommy Armstrong Jr. Rush for 6, FUMBLE

0.624

-0.113

4

4

UCLA

2

11

80

1

Paul Perkins Rush for 32, FIRST DOWN

0.528

-0.112

5

90

UCLA

1

10

69

2

Josh Rosen Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION

0.454

0.110

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