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Ohio State 42, Michigan 13: Fading Wolverines, meet angry Buckeyes

By Bill C.
Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio State 42, Michigan 13

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Michigan Ohio State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 72 69
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 75.9%
Avg Starting FP 23.4 36.2 29.7
Possessions 10 11
Scoring Opportunities*
 3 8
Points Per Opportunity 4.33 5.25 4.74
Leverage Rate** 66.7% 85.7% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.588 0.753 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Michigan Ohio State
Total 31.2 45.9
Rushing 5.8 35.4
Passing 25.4 10.4
Success Rate (what's this?) Michigan Ohio State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 43.1% 66.1% 41.7%
Rushing (close) 30.0% 70.7% 42.6%
Passing (close) 51.6% 53.3% 40.6%
Standard Downs 44.1% 66.7% 46.9%
Passing Downs 41.2% 62.5% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Michigan Ohio State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.21 1.12 1.26
Rushing (close) 0.86 1.07 1.08
Passing (close) 1.35 1.30 1.48
Standard Downs 1.22 0.94 1.11
Passing Downs 1.21 2.30 1.77
Line Stats Michigan Ohio State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.77 4.59 2.88
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 5.0% 7.7% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.5%
Turnovers Michigan Ohio State
Turnovers 1 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 8.0 0.0
Turnover Margin Ohio State +1
Exp. TO Margin Ohio State +2.12
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Michigan +1.12
TO Points Margin Ohio State +8.0 points
Situational Michigan Ohio State
Q1 S&P 0.513 0.714
Q2 S&P 0.644 0.778
Q3 S&P 0.687 0.762
Q4 S&P 0.375 0.631
1st Down S&P 0.514 0.717
2nd Down S&P 0.591 0.676
3rd Down S&P 0.480 0.770
Projected Scoring Margin: Ohio State by 22.8
Actual Scoring Margin: Ohio State by 29

Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh have for years been two of the best field position coaches in the country. Their teams tend to tilt the field, and whoever was able to do that in this game was going to have a pretty big advantage. That team was Ohio State. Teams with a +13 advantage in terms of average field position almost never lose. Thanks to both a ridiculously efficient offense, great kick coverage, and the late-game interception return by Joey Bosa, Ohio State crushed the Wolverines in field position.

Okay, they crushed Michigan in a lot of ways. That was only one. The Wolverines' defense, so good for the first seven games of the year, has not been up to par for a few weeks and got crushed by an Ohio State run game with something to prove.

Formations/Basics

Ohio St. Michigan
Backs-Wide % of Plays Yds/Play % of Plays Yds/Play
0 backs, 3 wide 4.1% 11.0

0 backs, 5 wide 1.4% 0.0 1.3% 0.0
1 back, 2 wide 16.2% 2.0 17.3% 4.4
1 back, 3 wide 55.4% 6.3 48.0% 4.6
1 back, 4 wide 18.9% 11.9 12.0% 4.6
2 backs, 1 wide 8.0% 8.8
2 backs, 2 wide 10.7% 5.3
2 backs, 3 wide 2.7% 1.0 1.3% 5.0
3 backs, 0 wide 1.4% -2.0
3 backs, 2 wide 1.3% 0.0
No Huddle? % of Plays Yds/Play
Ohio St. 75.7% 6.4
Michigan 1.3% 12.0
Ohio St. Michigan
Hash % of Plays Yds/Play % of Plays Yds/Play
Left 33.8% 6.7 34.7% 5.1
Middle 27.0% 6.2 25.3% 5.8
Right 39.2% 6.6 40.0% 4.0

The Buckeyes spent most of their time lined up with at least three players wide, and to say the least, it worked pretty well for them (7.5 yards per play). Michigan, meanwhile, was able to find some success out of two-back looks but didn't really consider that the permanent offense.

Passing

Ohio St. Michigan
Passing Comp Rt Yds/Pass Passing Comp Rt Yds/Pass
Behind Line 1-1, 0 yards 100.0% 0.0 7-12, 69 yards 58.3% 5.8
0 to 4 2-3, 19 yards 66.7% 6.3 5-9, 47 yards 55.6% 5.2
5 to 9 4-6, 31 yards 66.7% 5.2 4-9, 28 yards 44.4% 3.1
10 to 19 0-1, 0 yards 0.0% 0.0 5-8, 61 yards 62.5% 7.6
20 to 29 1-2, 25 yards 50.0% 12.5 3-3, 63 yards 100.0% 21.0
30-plus 1-2, 38 yards 50.0% 19.0 1-5, 39 yards 20.0% 7.8
Ohio St. Michigan
% Blitz: 31.3% 12.5%
Avg. Rushers 4.0 4.1
Passing (no blitz) 8-11, 107 yards, 0 sacks, 9.7 yds. per att. 23-41, 265 yards, 1 sacks, 6.3 yds. per att.
Passing (blitz) 1-4, 6 yards, 1 sacks, 1.2 yds. per att. 2-5, 42 yards, 1 sacks, 7.0 yds. per att.
Reason for INC/INT Ohio St. Michigan
QB Fault 4 11
Good Defense 2 7
WR Fault 0 3

Michigan's regular season began and ended with Jake Rudock misfiring quite a few passes. He missed some good looks deep against Utah, and according to the charting, 11 of Michigan's 21 incompletion (13 for Rudock, eight for Wilton Speight) were deemed the QB's fault (thrown behind, thrown ahead, overthrown, etc.).

Really, Michigan's efficiency was doomed from the start. The Wolverines couldn't run the ball (30 percent success rate) and relied heavily on short passing. But passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage were only 16-for-30. The completion rate on those passes should be 70% or higher, not 53%.

Rushing

Ohio St. Michigan
Rush-Yds YPC Rush-Yds YPC
To Edge 20-193 9.7 8-26 3.3
Toward Tackle 20-131 6.6 4-10 2.5
Up Middle 12-49 4.1 10-30 3.0

Edge defense was a bit of an issue for Michigan, huh?

QB Activity

Ohio St. Michigan
QB Move Rushes-Yds Passes-Yds Sacks-Yds Rushes-Yds Passes-Yds Sacks-Yds
Bootleg 1-5 5-25
Rollout 2-12
Option - speed option 4-49 1-0
Option - zone read 14-94
QB Draw 3-13 1-7
Sack - in pocket 1-(-6)
Broken Play 1-0

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