Michigan State 16, Iowa 13
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|Basics||Iowa||Michigan State||Nat'l Avg|
|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||100.0%|
|Avg Starting FP||29.5||32.0||29.8|
|Points Per Opportunity||3.25||2.67||4.73|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Iowa||Michigan State|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Iowa||Michigan State||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Iowa||Michigan State||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Iowa||Michigan State||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||2.63||3.53||2.88|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||25.0%||5.3%||4.9%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||6.3%||7.5%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||11.4||5.3|
|Turnover Margin||Michigan State +2|
|Exp. TO Margin||Michigan State +1.38|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Michigan State +0.62|
|TO Points Margin||Michigan State +6.1 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.546||0.570|
|2nd Down S&P||0.416||0.488|
|3rd Down S&P||0.681||0.529|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Michigan State by 16.1|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Michigan State by 3|
Before this was the game of the 22-Play Drive, it was one of missed opportunities. Michigan State created six scoring opportunities overall, which on average would have resulted in about 27-28 points. Instead, their first five chances resulted in three field goals and two missed field goals. Yuck.
Meanwhile, despite allowing more chances than it created, Iowa could have seized control of the game if not for turnovers, including one that took points off of the board (an INT at MSU's 5) and one that put points on the board for MSU (a fumble at the Iowa 27 that resulted in one of the made FGs). Take those plays away, and MSU maybe doesn't have time for a 22-play drive because the Spartans need to score twice.
For the game, MSU was the steadier team. The Spartans had perhaps their most efficient run performance of the year, with minimal big plays but a 50 percent success rate. Meanwhile, Iowa's only touchdown came on the 85-yard bomb to start the fourth quarter; otherwise the Hawkeyes were woefully inefficient.
Also inefficient: MSU's passing game. But in theory, at least part of that was due to Connor Cook's ongoing shoulder issues. (And yes, a lot was due to good defense.)
A 45-minute slog followed by perhaps the best single quarter of the season. Because of how our memories work, I'm all but certain to put this game near the top of the Top 100 Games of the Season list a month from now. That would blow the mind of anyone who fell asleep at the end of the third quarter.
|Backs-Wide||% of Plays||Yds/Play||% of Plays||Yds/Play|
|0 backs, 4 wide||3.6%||2.0|
|0 backs, 5 wide||3.6%||15.0||5.6%||3.7|
|1 back, 2 wide||19.3%||4.9||27.8%||8.2|
|1 back, 3 wide||27.7%||4.0||20.4%||2.7|
|1 back, 4 wide||4.8%||4.0||25.9%||5.0|
|2 backs, 0 wide||4.8%||1.3|
|2 backs, 1 wide||9.6%||3.8||3.7%||3.5|
|2 backs, 2 wide||19.3%||3.6||9.3%||4.8|
|2 backs, 3 wide||2.4%||9.5||7.4%||1.3|
|3 backs, 1 wide||4.8%||4.0|
|No Huddle?||% of Plays||Yds/Play|
|Hash||% of Plays||Yds/Play||% of Plays||Yds/Play|
Michigan State emptied the bag of tricks from a formations standpoint. While Iowa spent three-quarters of the time in a 1-back set, Sparty varied between 1-back (52%) and 2-back (41%). And nearly one in five plays came in the old-school two-back, two-wide, one-TE look.
|Passing||Comp Rt||Yds/Pass||Passing||Comp Rt||Yds/Pass|
|Behind Line||3-5, 15 yards||60.0%||3.0||5-6, 31 yards||83.3%||5.2|
|0 to 4||4-6, 30 yards||66.7%||5.0||7-8, 46 yards||87.5%||5.8|
|5 to 9||1-5, 11 yards||20.0%||2.2||4-9, 34 yards||44.4%||3.8|
|10 to 19||7-14, 113 yards||50.0%||8.1||1-2, 20 yards||50.0%||10.0|
|20 to 29||1-3, 22 yards||33.3%||7.3||0-0, 0 yards||N/A||N/A|
|30-plus||0-0, 0 yards||N/A||N/A||1-2, 85 yards||50.0%||42.5|
|Passing (no blitz)||11-24, 142 yards, 1 sacks, 5.7 yds. per att.||12-18, 152 yards, 2 sacks, 7.6 yds. per att.|
|Passing (blitz)||5-9, 49 yards, 1 sacks, 4.9 yds. per att.||6-9, 64 yards, 0 sacks, 7.1 yds. per att.|
|Reason for INC/INT||Michigan St.||Iowa|
Evidently Iowa should have taken more deep shots. The Hawkeyes were just 11-for-17 for 80 yards on passes thrown between zero and nine yards from the line. Meanwhile, Cook's struggles were most evident on the same short passes. The NFL prospect completed just five of 11 passes in that same range and misfired on two behind the line as well. His completion rate was actually better on passes between 10 and 19 yards downfield.
|Option - speed option||1-2|
|Sack - in pocket||2-(-21)|
|Sack - QB fault||1-(-5)|