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Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Probability |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
1 |
182 |
Baylor |
1 |
10 |
17 |
4 |
Jarrett Stidham Pass to Jay Lee for 17, TOUCHDOWN |
0.189 |
0.190 |
|
2 |
46 |
Baylor |
3 |
24 |
87 |
1 |
Jarrett Stidham Pass to Jay Lee for 34, FIRST DOWN |
0.405 |
0.190 |
|
3 |
197 |
Oklahoma |
3 |
7 |
7 |
4 |
Baker Mayfield Pass to Dimitri Flowers for 7, TOUCHDOWN |
0.219 |
-0.146 |
|
4 |
80 |
Oklahoma |
1 |
10 |
58 |
2 |
Baker Mayfield Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.256 |
0.146 |
|
5 |
113 |
Baylor |
3 |
14 |
79 |
3 |
Jarrett Stidham Pass to Corey Coleman for 37, FIRST DOWN |
0.252 |
0.144 |
Oklahoma 44, Baylor 34
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Baylor | Oklahoma | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 71 | 87 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 29.8 | 32.8 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 15 | 15 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
6 | 10 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.83 | 4.40 | 4.73 |
| Leverage Rate** | 64.8% | 66.7% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.584 | 0.612 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Baylor | Oklahoma | |
| Total | 37.6 | 49.8 | |
| Rushing | 15.9 | 24.1 | |
| Passing | 21.7 | 25.7 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Baylor | Oklahoma | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 39.4% | 43.7% | 41.7% |
| Rushing (close) | 35.7% | 38.0% | 42.7% |
| Passing (close) | 44.8% | 51.4% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 39.1% | 43.1% | 46.9% |
| Passing Downs | 40.0% | 44.8% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Baylor | Oklahoma | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.34 | 1.31 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.06 | 1.27 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 1.67 | 1.35 | 1.48 |
| Standard Downs | 0.84 | 1.22 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 2.24 | 1.48 | 1.77 |
| Line Stats | Baylor | Oklahoma | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.77 | 2.65 | 2.88 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 5.6% | 15.8% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 9.1% | 0.0% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Baylor | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 3 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 12.1 | 4.0 |
| Turnover Margin | Oklahoma +2 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Baylor +0.73 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Oklahoma +2.73 | |
| TO Points Margin | Oklahoma +8.1 points | |
| Situational | Baylor | Oklahoma |
| Q1 S&P | 0.597 | 0.505 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.521 | 0.709 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.635 | 0.725 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.613 | 0.506 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.557 | 0.634 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.416 | 0.557 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.675 | 0.694 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Oklahoma by 20.3 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Oklahoma by 10 | ||
I understand that this isn't the awesome Baylor defense from a couple of years ago, but damn, was this impressive from the Sooners. Baylor stopped the run pretty well but had nothing in the arsenal for corralling Baker Mayfield and Sterling Shepard. Turnovers helped them to create ten scoring opportunities (nine if you don't count the last drive, which ended in kneeldowns), and they actually probably should have won by more considering that. Baylor lost ground by turning the ball over, then made up a lot of the ground with quality finishing. But the right team, the better team definitely won this one.
Side note: wow, was Shepard's second-quarter touchdown incredible.