clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Oklahoma 44, Baylor 34: Turnovers + passing magic = Sooner win

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

bayouwp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

182

Baylor

1

10

17

4

Jarrett Stidham Pass to Jay Lee for 17, TOUCHDOWN

0.189

0.190

2

46

Baylor

3

24

87

1

Jarrett Stidham Pass to Jay Lee for 34, FIRST DOWN

0.405

0.190

3

197

Oklahoma

3

7

7

4

Baker Mayfield Pass to Dimitri Flowers for 7, TOUCHDOWN

0.219

-0.146

4

80

Oklahoma

1

10

58

2

Baker Mayfield Pass INTERCEPTED

0.256

0.146

5

113

Baylor

3

14

79

3

Jarrett Stidham Pass to Corey Coleman for 37, FIRST DOWN

0.252

0.144

Oklahoma 44, Baylor 34

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Baylor Oklahoma Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 71 87
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 29.8 32.8 29.7
Possessions 15 15
Scoring Opportunities*
6 10
Points Per Opportunity 5.83 4.40 4.73
Leverage Rate** 64.8% 66.7% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.584 0.612 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Baylor Oklahoma
Total 37.6 49.8
Rushing 15.9 24.1
Passing 21.7 25.7
Success Rate (what's this?) Baylor Oklahoma Nat'l Avg
All (close) 39.4% 43.7% 41.7%
Rushing (close) 35.7% 38.0% 42.7%
Passing (close) 44.8% 51.4% 40.7%
Standard Downs 39.1% 43.1% 46.9%
Passing Downs 40.0% 44.8% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Baylor Oklahoma Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.34 1.31 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.06 1.27 1.07
Passing (close) 1.67 1.35 1.48
Standard Downs 0.84 1.22 1.11
Passing Downs 2.24 1.48 1.77
Line Stats Baylor Oklahoma Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.77 2.65 2.88
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 5.6% 15.8% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 9.1% 0.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Baylor Oklahoma
Turnovers 3 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 12.1 4.0
Turnover Margin Oklahoma +2
Exp. TO Margin Baylor +0.73
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Oklahoma +2.73
TO Points Margin Oklahoma +8.1 points
Situational Baylor Oklahoma
Q1 S&P 0.597 0.505
Q2 S&P 0.521 0.709
Q3 S&P 0.635 0.725
Q4 S&P 0.613 0.506
1st Down S&P 0.557 0.634
2nd Down S&P 0.416 0.557
3rd Down S&P 0.675 0.694
Projected Scoring Margin: Oklahoma by 20.3
Actual Scoring Margin: Oklahoma by 10

I understand that this isn't the awesome Baylor defense from a couple of years ago, but damn, was this impressive from the Sooners. Baylor stopped the run pretty well but had nothing in the arsenal for corralling Baker Mayfield and Sterling Shepard. Turnovers helped them to create ten scoring opportunities (nine if you don't count the last drive, which ended in kneeldowns), and they actually probably should have won by more considering that. Baylor lost ground by turning the ball over, then made up a lot of the ground with quality finishing. But the right team, the better team definitely won this one.

Side note: wow, was Shepard's second-quarter touchdown incredible.