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Oklahoma State 35, Iowa State 31: Cyclones' O went from unstoppable to nonexistent

Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports

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Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

172

Oklahoma State

1

7

7

4

J.W. Walsh Pass to Jeff Carr for 7, TOUCHDOWN

0.514

-0.225

2

189

Oklahoma State

3

15

29

4

Team Team Rush for -4

0.214

-0.214

3

151

Oklahoma State

2

10

16

4

J.W. Walsh Rush for 16, TOUCHDOWN

0.878

-0.160

4

186

Iowa State

1

10

95

4

Joel Lanning Pass INTERCEPTED

0.309

-0.145

5

128

Oklahoma State

1

10

65

3

Mason Rudolph Pass to Blake Jarwin for 3

0.634

0.144

Oklahoma State 35, Iowa State 31

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Iowa State Oklahoma State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 63 86
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 26.3 29.9 29.7
Possessions 11 12
Scoring Opportunities*
5 8
Points Per Opportunity 6.20 4.38 4.73
Leverage Rate** 79.4% 65.1% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.644 0.614 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Iowa State Oklahoma State
Total 39.4 46.1
Rushing 25.0 15.3
Passing 14.4 30.8
Success Rate (what's this?) Iowa State Oklahoma State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 47.6% 50.0% 41.7%
Rushing (close) 56.4% 44.4% 42.7%
Passing (close) 33.3% 56.1% 40.7%
Standard Downs 54.0% 50.0% 46.9%
Passing Downs 23.1% 50.0% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Iowa State Oklahoma State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.31 1.07 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.14 0.76 1.07
Passing (close) 1.81 1.34 1.48
Standard Downs 1.27 0.80 1.11
Passing Downs 1.68 1.58 1.77
Line Stats Iowa State Oklahoma State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.90 2.27 2.88
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 11.1% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 50.0% 0.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Iowa State Oklahoma State
Turnovers 1 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 3.3 4.0
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Iowa State +0.29
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Oklahoma State +0.29
TO Points Margin Iowa State +0.7 points
Situational Iowa State Oklahoma State
Q1 S&P 0.907 0.684
Q2 S&P 0.598 0.583
Q3 S&P 0.577 0.566
Q4 S&P 0.338 0.624
1st Down S&P 0.609 0.633
2nd Down S&P 0.659 0.535
3rd Down S&P 0.723 0.575
Projected Scoring Margin: Oklahoma State by 5.9
Actual Scoring Margin: Oklahoma State by 4

This game basically came down to Oklahoma State's defense getting its head out of its backside. Despite a mostly one-dimensional attack, Iowa State could not be stopped early on.

Then it became pretty easy to stop.

ISU, first 4 drives: 29 plays, 291 yards (10.0), 24 points
ISU, last 7 drives: 31 plays, 120 yards (3.9), 7 points

OSU's offense made just enough mistakes to give the Cyclones hope -- a missed field goal early on, a fumble in the third quarter -- but it was just a matter of time.