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Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Probability |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
1 |
172 |
Oklahoma State |
1 |
7 |
7 |
4 |
J.W. Walsh Pass to Jeff Carr for 7, TOUCHDOWN |
0.514 |
-0.225 |
|
2 |
189 |
Oklahoma State |
3 |
15 |
29 |
4 |
Team Team Rush for -4 |
0.214 |
-0.214 |
|
3 |
151 |
Oklahoma State |
2 |
10 |
16 |
4 |
J.W. Walsh Rush for 16, TOUCHDOWN |
0.878 |
-0.160 |
|
4 |
186 |
Iowa State |
1 |
10 |
95 |
4 |
Joel Lanning Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.309 |
-0.145 |
|
5 |
128 |
Oklahoma State |
1 |
10 |
65 |
3 |
Mason Rudolph Pass to Blake Jarwin for 3 |
0.634 |
0.144 |
Oklahoma State 35, Iowa State 31
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Iowa State | Oklahoma State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 63 | 86 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 26.3 | 29.9 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 11 | 12 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
5 | 8 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 6.20 | 4.38 | 4.73 |
| Leverage Rate** | 79.4% | 65.1% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.644 | 0.614 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Iowa State | Oklahoma State | |
| Total | 39.4 | 46.1 | |
| Rushing | 25.0 | 15.3 | |
| Passing | 14.4 | 30.8 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Iowa State | Oklahoma State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 47.6% | 50.0% | 41.7% |
| Rushing (close) | 56.4% | 44.4% | 42.7% |
| Passing (close) | 33.3% | 56.1% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 54.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% |
| Passing Downs | 23.1% | 50.0% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Iowa State | Oklahoma State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.31 | 1.07 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.14 | 0.76 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 1.81 | 1.34 | 1.48 |
| Standard Downs | 1.27 | 0.80 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 1.68 | 1.58 | 1.77 |
| Line Stats | Iowa State | Oklahoma State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.90 | 2.27 | 2.88 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 11.1% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 50.0% | 0.0% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Iowa State | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 3.3 | 4.0 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Iowa State +0.29 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Oklahoma State +0.29 | |
| TO Points Margin | Iowa State +0.7 points | |
| Situational | Iowa State | Oklahoma State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.907 | 0.684 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.598 | 0.583 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.577 | 0.566 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.338 | 0.624 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.609 | 0.633 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.659 | 0.535 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.723 | 0.575 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Oklahoma State by 5.9 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Oklahoma State by 4 | ||
This game basically came down to Oklahoma State's defense getting its head out of its backside. Despite a mostly one-dimensional attack, Iowa State could not be stopped early on.
Then it became pretty easy to stop.
ISU, first 4 drives: 29 plays, 291 yards (10.0), 24 points
ISU, last 7 drives: 31 plays, 120 yards (3.9), 7 points
OSU's offense made just enough mistakes to give the Cyclones hope -- a missed field goal early on, a fumble in the third quarter -- but it was just a matter of time.