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Michigan 48, Indiana 41: Aching Hoosiers, fading Wolverines

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

indmichwp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

230

Indiana

4

2

2

5

Nate Sudfeld Pass to Mitchell Paige for 0

0.541

-0.541

2

209

Michigan

4

5

5

4

Jake Rudock Pass to Jehu Chesson for 5, TOUCHDOWN

0.828

-0.288

3

218

Indiana

5

0

3

5

ATTEMPT

0.663

-0.243

4

223

Michigan

5

0

3

5

ATTEMPT

0.320

0.241

5

197

Indiana

1

10

24

4

Jordan Howard Rush for 24, TOUCHDOWN

0.672

0.227

Michigan 48, Indiana 41

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Indiana Michigan Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 89 74
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 33.5 34.6 29.7
Possessions 11 13
Scoring Opportunities*
7 10
Points Per Opportunity 4.86 4.80 4.73
Leverage Rate** 77.5% 68.9% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.599 0.703 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Indiana Michigan
Total 48.9 56.9
Rushing 30.2 13.4
Passing 18.7 43.5
Success Rate (what's this?) Indiana Michigan Nat'l Avg
All (close) 42.7% 47.3% 41.7%
Rushing (close) 48.2% 37.0% 42.7%
Passing (close) 34.3% 53.2% 40.7%
Standard Downs 47.8% 41.2% 46.9%
Passing Downs 25.0% 60.9% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Indiana Michigan Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.29 1.62 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.16 1.34 1.07
Passing (close) 1.56 1.74 1.48
Standard Downs 1.14 1.64 1.11
Passing Downs 2.24 1.61 1.77
Line Stats Indiana Michigan Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.78 3.26 2.88
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 7.7% 5.9% 7.6%
Turnovers Indiana Michigan
Turnovers 0 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 3.7
Turnover Margin Indiana +1
Exp. TO Margin Michigan +0.07
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Indiana +1.07
TO Points Margin Indiana +3.7 points
Situational Indiana Michigan
Q1 S&P 0.518 0.745
Q2 S&P 0.677 0.840
Q3 S&P 0.668 0.520
Q4 S&P 0.640 0.673
1st Down S&P 0.635 0.738
2nd Down S&P 0.677 0.640
3rd Down S&P 0.595 0.776
Projected Scoring Margin: Michigan by 4.2
Actual Scoring Margin: Michigan by 7

Indiana held Michigan to three points in five possessions in the middle of the game, got a punt return score, picked off a pass to kill a scoring chance with six minutes left, went down and scored the go-ahead touchdown with three minutes left, forced a fourth-and-goal in the final seconds ... and lost.

Meanwhile ... man oh man, is the shine coming off of Michigan's defense. The early run of almost impossibly good D turned out to be impossible to maintain. The Wolverines' Def. S&P+ rating (shared in the form of adjusted PPG) has gone from the 5s to the 12s in little time, and that Ohio State game has quickly shifted toward the Buckeyes.