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Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Probability |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
1 |
212 |
Houston |
1 |
10 |
69 |
4 |
Team Kneeldown |
0.694 |
0.306 |
|
2 |
200 |
Houston |
1 |
7 |
7 |
4 |
Kyle Postma Rush for 7, TOUCHDOWN |
0.395 |
0.240 |
|
3 |
211 |
Memphis |
4 |
5 |
31 |
4 |
FIELD_GOAL |
0.543 |
0.151 |
|
4 |
183 |
Houston |
3 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
Javin Webb Rush for 1, TOUCHDOWN |
0.085 |
0.131 |
|
5 |
19 |
Houston |
4 |
14 |
79 |
1 |
PUNT |
0.347 |
0.119 |
Houston 35, Memphis 34
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Houston | Memphis | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 75 | 86 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 96.3% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 32.1 | 24.9 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 14 | 14 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
6 | 7 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.83 | 4.86 | 4.73 |
| Leverage Rate** | 69.6% | 68.6% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.539 | 0.598 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Houston | Memphis | |
| Total | 37.8 | 45.8 | |
| Rushing | 12.4 | 20.0 | |
| Passing | 25.4 | 25.8 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Houston | Memphis | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 39.1% | 45.4% | 41.7% |
| Rushing (close) | 36.0% | 41.5% | 42.7% |
| Passing (close) | 40.9% | 51.5% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 41.7% | 47.5% | 46.9% |
| Passing Downs | 33.3% | 40.7% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Houston | Memphis | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.13 | 1.17 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.24 | 0.91 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 1.07 | 1.52 | 1.48 |
| Standard Downs | 1.11 | 1.14 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 1.19 | 1.25 | 1.77 |
| Line Stats | Houston | Memphis | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.00 | 2.82 | 2.88 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 8.0% | 0.0% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 15.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Houston | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 8.8 |
| Turnover Margin | Houston +2 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Houston +1.31 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Houston +0.69 | |
| TO Points Margin | Houston +8.8 points | |
| Situational | Houston | Memphis |
| Q1 S&P | 0.319 | 0.475 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.584 | 0.724 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.665 | 0.633 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.639 | 0.632 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.521 | 0.560 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.498 | 0.580 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.640 | 0.604 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Houston by 0.8 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Houston by 1 | ||
Houston began the game with six punts, five of which were three-and-outs. The Cougars spotted a good team a 20-point lead, then let it balloon back to 20 to start the fourth quarter while playing their backup QB. And then they won. As poorly as Houston started, Memphis finished with a fumble, an interception, a three-and-out, and a missed field goal. Ouch.