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Houston 35, Memphis 34: Cougars got everything wrong, then won anyway

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

houmemwp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

212

Houston

1

10

69

4

Team Kneeldown

0.694

0.306

2

200

Houston

1

7

7

4

Kyle Postma Rush for 7, TOUCHDOWN

0.395

0.240

3

211

Memphis

4

5

31

4

FIELD_GOAL

0.543

0.151

4

183

Houston

3

1

1

4

Javin Webb Rush for 1, TOUCHDOWN

0.085

0.131

5

19

Houston

4

14

79

1

PUNT

0.347

0.119

Houston 35, Memphis 34

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Houston Memphis Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 75 86
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 96.3%
Avg Starting FP 32.1 24.9 29.7
Possessions 14 14
Scoring Opportunities*
6 7
Points Per Opportunity 5.83 4.86 4.73
Leverage Rate** 69.6% 68.6% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.539 0.598 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Houston Memphis
Total 37.8 45.8
Rushing 12.4 20.0
Passing 25.4 25.8
Success Rate (what's this?) Houston Memphis Nat'l Avg
All (close) 39.1% 45.4% 41.7%
Rushing (close) 36.0% 41.5% 42.7%
Passing (close) 40.9% 51.5% 40.7%
Standard Downs 41.7% 47.5% 46.9%
Passing Downs 33.3% 40.7% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Houston Memphis Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.13 1.17 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.24 0.91 1.07
Passing (close) 1.07 1.52 1.48
Standard Downs 1.11 1.14 1.11
Passing Downs 1.19 1.25 1.77
Line Stats Houston Memphis Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.00 2.82 2.88
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 8.0% 0.0% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 15.8% 7.1% 7.6%
Turnovers Houston Memphis
Turnovers 0 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 8.8
Turnover Margin Houston +2
Exp. TO Margin Houston +1.31
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Houston +0.69
TO Points Margin Houston +8.8 points
Situational Houston Memphis
Q1 S&P 0.319 0.475
Q2 S&P 0.584 0.724
Q3 S&P 0.665 0.633
Q4 S&P 0.639 0.632
1st Down S&P 0.521 0.560
2nd Down S&P 0.498 0.580
3rd Down S&P 0.640 0.604
Projected Scoring Margin: Houston by 0.8
Actual Scoring Margin: Houston by 1

Houston began the game with six punts, five of which were three-and-outs. The Cougars spotted a good team a 20-point lead, then let it balloon back to 20 to start the fourth quarter while playing their backup QB. And then they won. As poorly as Houston started, Memphis finished with a fumble, an interception, a three-and-out, and a missed field goal. Ouch.