clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Arkansas 31, LSU 14: Two seasons have turned around in a hurry

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

lsuarkwp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

37

Arkansas

2

10

80

2

Alex Collins Rush for 80, TOUCHDOWN

0.370

-0.200

2

16

Arkansas

2

10

52

1

Brandon Allen Pass to Dominique Reed for 52, TOUCHDOWN

0.513

-0.151

3

7

Arkansas

3

1

53

1

Alex Collins Rush for 3, FUMBLE

0.525

0.101

4

62

LSU

1

10

66

2

Brandon Harris Rush for -19, FUMBLE

0.140

-0.085

5

4

Arkansas

3

7

75

1

Brandon Allen Pass to Hunter Henry for 13, FIRST DOWN

0.600

-0.085

Arkansas 31, LSU 14

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Arkansas LSU Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 56 65
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 78.5%
Avg Starting FP 31.2 25.5 29.7
Possessions 12 11
Scoring Opportunities*
7 3
Points Per Opportunity 4.43 4.67 4.73
Leverage Rate** 76.7% 69.2% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.754 0.563 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Arkansas LSU
Total 39.9 30.3
Rushing 27.9 9.6
Passing 12.1 20.8
Success Rate (what's this?) Arkansas LSU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 55.8% 48.1% 41.7%
Rushing (close) 63.0% 52.0% 42.7%
Passing (close) 43.8% 44.4% 40.7%
Standard Downs 51.5% 61.1% 46.9%
Passing Downs 70.0% 18.8% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Arkansas LSU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.54 0.89 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.52 0.74 1.07
Passing (close) 1.58 1.06 1.48
Standard Downs 1.14 0.84 1.11
Passing Downs 2.50 1.31 1.77
Line Stats Arkansas LSU Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.98 2.92 2.88
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 11.1% 13.3% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 14.3% 25.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Arkansas LSU
Turnovers 2 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 7.4 11.1
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Arkansas +1.1
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) LSU +1.1
TO Points Margin Arkansas +3.7 points
Situational Arkansas LSU
Q1 S&P 0.659 0.259
Q2 S&P 0.885 0.646
Q3 S&P 0.691 0.719
Q4 S&P 0.618 0.595
1st Down S&P 0.759 0.554
2nd Down S&P 0.696 0.650
3rd Down S&P 0.841 0.371
Projected Scoring Margin: Arkansas by 13.3
Actual Scoring Margin: Arkansas by 17

Arkansas turned the ball over twice in its first five possessions and STILL had this game basically put away by halftime. That's hard to do.

LSU's offensive line has gotten blown up for two straight weeks, and the Tigers' defense is suddenly down to 41st in Def. S&P+. This season turned in a hurry.