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Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Probability |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
1 |
37 |
Arkansas |
2 |
10 |
80 |
2 |
Alex Collins Rush for 80, TOUCHDOWN |
0.370 |
-0.200 |
|
2 |
16 |
Arkansas |
2 |
10 |
52 |
1 |
Brandon Allen Pass to Dominique Reed for 52, TOUCHDOWN |
0.513 |
-0.151 |
|
3 |
7 |
Arkansas |
3 |
1 |
53 |
1 |
Alex Collins Rush for 3, FUMBLE |
0.525 |
0.101 |
|
4 |
62 |
LSU |
1 |
10 |
66 |
2 |
Brandon Harris Rush for -19, FUMBLE |
0.140 |
-0.085 |
|
5 |
4 |
Arkansas |
3 |
7 |
75 |
1 |
Brandon Allen Pass to Hunter Henry for 13, FIRST DOWN |
0.600 |
-0.085 |
Arkansas 31, LSU 14
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Arkansas | LSU | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 56 | 65 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 78.5% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 31.2 | 25.5 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 12 | 11 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
7 | 3 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.43 | 4.67 | 4.73 |
| Leverage Rate** | 76.7% | 69.2% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.754 | 0.563 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Arkansas | LSU | |
| Total | 39.9 | 30.3 | |
| Rushing | 27.9 | 9.6 | |
| Passing | 12.1 | 20.8 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Arkansas | LSU | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 55.8% | 48.1% | 41.7% |
| Rushing (close) | 63.0% | 52.0% | 42.7% |
| Passing (close) | 43.8% | 44.4% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 51.5% | 61.1% | 46.9% |
| Passing Downs | 70.0% | 18.8% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Arkansas | LSU | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.54 | 0.89 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.52 | 0.74 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 1.58 | 1.06 | 1.48 |
| Standard Downs | 1.14 | 0.84 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 2.50 | 1.31 | 1.77 |
| Line Stats | Arkansas | LSU | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.98 | 2.92 | 2.88 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 11.1% | 13.3% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 14.3% | 25.0% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Arkansas | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 7.4 | 11.1 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Arkansas +1.1 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | LSU +1.1 | |
| TO Points Margin | Arkansas +3.7 points | |
| Situational | Arkansas | LSU |
| Q1 S&P | 0.659 | 0.259 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.885 | 0.646 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.691 | 0.719 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.618 | 0.595 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.759 | 0.554 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.696 | 0.650 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.841 | 0.371 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Arkansas by 13.3 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Arkansas by 17 | ||
Arkansas turned the ball over twice in its first five possessions and STILL had this game basically put away by halftime. That's hard to do.
LSU's offensive line has gotten blown up for two straight weeks, and the Tigers' defense is suddenly down to 41st in Def. S&P+. This season turned in a hurry.