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Virginia Tech 23, Georgia Tech 21: An all-time weird year for the Ramblin' Wreck

Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

gtvtwp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

168

Virginia Tech

1

10

39

4

Team kneeldown

0.280

-0.280

2

137

Georgia Tech

1

10

80

4

Marcus Allen Rush for -2, FUMBLE

0.802

-0.197

3

142

Virginia Tech

2

4

4

4

Travon McMillian Rush for 4, TOUCHDOWN

0.584

-0.163

4

86

Virginia Tech

3

10

75

3

Michael Brewer Pass INTERCEPTED

0.601

0.163

5

132

Georgia Tech

1

10

35

4

Broderick Snoddy Rush for 3, FUMBLE

0.861

-0.148

Virginia Tech 23, Georgia Tech 21

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Georgia Tech Virginia Tech Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 60 68
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 26.1 34.2 29.7
Possessions 12 13
Scoring Opportunities*
4 6
Points Per Opportunity 3.50 4.00 4.73
Leverage Rate** 68.3% 73.5% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.516 0.559 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Georgia Tech Virginia Tech
Total 22.8 30.0
Rushing 15.5 16.5
Passing 7.3 13.5
Success Rate (what's this?) Georgia Tech Virginia Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 41.7% 45.6% 41.7%
Rushing (close) 46.7% 47.4% 42.7%
Passing (close) 26.7% 43.3% 40.7%
Standard Downs 43.9% 52.0% 46.9%
Passing Downs 36.8% 27.8% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Georgia Tech Virginia Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.91 0.97 1.26
Rushing (close) 0.74 0.92 1.07
Passing (close) 1.83 1.04 1.48
Standard Downs 0.86 0.85 1.11
Passing Downs 1.05 1.56 1.77
Line Stats Georgia Tech Virginia Tech Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.02 3.24 2.88
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 16.7% 0.0% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 11.1% 7.7% 7.6%
Turnovers Georgia Tech Virginia Tech
Turnovers 3 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 12.9 11.3
Turnover Margin Virginia Tech +1
Exp. TO Margin Virginia Tech +0.21
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Virginia Tech +0.79
TO Points Margin Virginia Tech +1.5 points
Situational Georgia Tech Virginia Tech
Q1 S&P 0.697 0.493
Q2 S&P 0.428 0.723
Q3 S&P 0.444 0.515
Q4 S&P 0.417 0.379
1st Down S&P 0.524 0.545
2nd Down S&P 0.454 0.611
3rd Down S&P 0.599 0.436
Projected Scoring Margin: Virginia Tech by 8.8
Actual Scoring Margin: Virginia Tech by 2

Georgia Tech has quietly had one of the strangest years of all time. Seven losses in eight games, five by one possession ... and in the middle of them, you pull off an all-timer, returning a blocked field goal for a TD to end Florida State's long ACC win streak. I expected so much more from GT this year, and I realize part of that is on me for underestimating the inexperience at running back (which was exacerbated by injuries), but ... damn. Strange, strange year.

That said, I'm not sure how this one was actually within one possession. (Well, I do: GT had a pick six early in the third quarter that helped to make up ground.) VT won the yardage battle, the efficiency battle, the field position battle, and the drive-finishing battle.