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Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Probability |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
1 |
168 |
Virginia Tech |
1 |
10 |
39 |
4 |
Team kneeldown |
0.280 |
-0.280 |
|
2 |
137 |
Georgia Tech |
1 |
10 |
80 |
4 |
Marcus Allen Rush for -2, FUMBLE |
0.802 |
-0.197 |
|
3 |
142 |
Virginia Tech |
2 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Travon McMillian Rush for 4, TOUCHDOWN |
0.584 |
-0.163 |
|
4 |
86 |
Virginia Tech |
3 |
10 |
75 |
3 |
Michael Brewer Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.601 |
0.163 |
|
5 |
132 |
Georgia Tech |
1 |
10 |
35 |
4 |
Broderick Snoddy Rush for 3, FUMBLE |
0.861 |
-0.148 |
Virginia Tech 23, Georgia Tech 21
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Georgia Tech | Virginia Tech | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 60 | 68 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 26.1 | 34.2 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 12 | 13 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
4 | 6 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 3.50 | 4.00 | 4.73 |
| Leverage Rate** | 68.3% | 73.5% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.516 | 0.559 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Georgia Tech | Virginia Tech | |
| Total | 22.8 | 30.0 | |
| Rushing | 15.5 | 16.5 | |
| Passing | 7.3 | 13.5 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Georgia Tech | Virginia Tech | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 41.7% | 45.6% | 41.7% |
| Rushing (close) | 46.7% | 47.4% | 42.7% |
| Passing (close) | 26.7% | 43.3% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 43.9% | 52.0% | 46.9% |
| Passing Downs | 36.8% | 27.8% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Georgia Tech | Virginia Tech | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.91 | 0.97 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.74 | 0.92 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 1.83 | 1.04 | 1.48 |
| Standard Downs | 0.86 | 0.85 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 1.05 | 1.56 | 1.77 |
| Line Stats | Georgia Tech | Virginia Tech | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.02 | 3.24 | 2.88 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 16.7% | 0.0% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 11.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Georgia Tech | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 3 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 12.9 | 11.3 |
| Turnover Margin | Virginia Tech +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Virginia Tech +0.21 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Virginia Tech +0.79 | |
| TO Points Margin | Virginia Tech +1.5 points | |
| Situational | Georgia Tech | Virginia Tech |
| Q1 S&P | 0.697 | 0.493 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.428 | 0.723 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.444 | 0.515 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.417 | 0.379 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.524 | 0.545 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.454 | 0.611 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.599 | 0.436 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Virginia Tech by 8.8 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Virginia Tech by 2 | ||
Georgia Tech has quietly had one of the strangest years of all time. Seven losses in eight games, five by one possession ... and in the middle of them, you pull off an all-timer, returning a blocked field goal for a TD to end Florida State's long ACC win streak. I expected so much more from GT this year, and I realize part of that is on me for underestimating the inexperience at running back (which was exacerbated by injuries), but ... damn. Strange, strange year.
That said, I'm not sure how this one was actually within one possession. (Well, I do: GT had a pick six early in the third quarter that helped to make up ground.) VT won the yardage battle, the efficiency battle, the field position battle, and the drive-finishing battle.