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Updated Big Ten projections through 10 weeks

Let the elimination games begin.

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Win projections

Just when I begin to grow confident in the idea of an 11-1 Nebraska team, Wisconsin starts to look like Wisconsin again. Now I'm not sure what to think about that Week 12 matchup. (Actually, I'm pretty sure I do know what to think, and it doesn't involve Nebraska finishing 11-1.)

Regardless, I'm just glad Ohio State and Michigan State are finally playing so I can stop hyphenating the two of them (as in, "the MSU-OSU winner").

Odds of Big Ten conference records
West F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 11 win With Week 11 loss
Nebraska (4-1, 8-1) 14 6.29 6.43 (-0.13)

Wisconsin (3-1, 6-2) 24 5.78 5.43 (+0.35) 5.94 4.94
Iowa (3-1, 6-2) 41 4.79 3.99 (+0.80) 5.37 4.37
Minnesota (3-1, 6-2) 45 3.94 4.18 (-0.24) 4.37 3.37
Northwestern (2-3, 3-5) 68 3.54 4.44 (-0.90) 4.12 3.12
Purdue (1-4, 3-6) 64 2.50 2.35 (+0.15) 3.34 2.34
Illinois (1-4, 4-5) 88 1.53 1.68 (-0.15)

East F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 11 win With Week 11 loss
Ohio State (4-0, 7-1) 7 7.26 7.17 (+0.08) 7.84 6.84
Michigan State (4-0, 7-1) 11 7.20 7.26 (-0.06) 7.62 6.62
Maryland (3-2, 6-3) 42 4.63 3.72 (+0.91) 2.99 1.99
Michigan (2-3, 4-5) 53 2.98 2.58 (+0.40) 3.40 2.40
Penn State (1-4, 4-4) 44 2.78 3.48 (-0.70)

Rutgers (1-4, 5-4) 65 1.99 2.38 (-0.39)

Indiana (0-4, 3-5) 81 0.79 0.89 (-0.11) 1.58 0.58

WEST
Serious contenders: Nebraska, Wisconsin
Minor contenders: Iowa

Great performances by both Wisconsin and Iowa decreased Nebraska's margin here. The Huskers are still projected to beat both of those teams on the road, but as you'll see with the odds below, there's only about a 47 percent chance of them winning both games. (And again, recent Wisconsin efforts make that seem more like 20%.) And since the three schools are all tied in the win column, that opens the door quite a bit, especially with Wisconsin and Iowa also playing in Week 13.

NU's still the favorite here, but buckle up for an interesting set of games.

EAST
Major contenders: Ohio State, Michigan State
Minor contenders: not so much

Basically, Ohio State gets the edge in projected wins above because the Buckeyes' remaining slate (at Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan) is easier than the Spartans' (at Maryland, Rutgers, at Penn State). Still, the MSU-OSU winner has tremendous odds of finishing 8-0 in conference, and as it currently stands, MSU has about a 58 percent chance of becoming that winner.

All Projections

Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
11 08-Nov-14 Iowa Minnesota 42.6%
11 08-Nov-14 Michigan Northwestern 57.7%
11 08-Nov-14 Ohio State Michigan State 42.2%
11 08-Nov-14 Penn State Indiana 78.9%
11 08-Nov-14 Wisconsin Purdue 84.3%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
12 15-Nov-14 Indiana Rutgers 23.1%
12 15-Nov-14 Iowa Illinois 85.3%
12 15-Nov-14 Michigan State Maryland 81.5%
12 15-Nov-14 Nebraska Wisconsin 60.1%
12 15-Nov-14 Ohio State Minnesota 88.0%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
13 22-Nov-14 Indiana Ohio State 1.4%
13 22-Nov-14 Maryland Michigan 62.6%
13 22-Nov-14 Minnesota Nebraska 9.3%
13 22-Nov-14 Northwestern Purdue 33.4%
13 22-Nov-14 Penn State Illinois 82.3%
13 22-Nov-14 Rutgers Michigan State 2.7%
13 22-Nov-14 Wisconsin Iowa 69.0%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
14 28-Nov-14 Nebraska Iowa 78.5%
14 29-Nov-14 Illinois Northwestern 20.6%
14 29-Nov-14 Michigan Ohio State 3.2%
14 29-Nov-14 Michigan State Penn State 84.3%
14 29-Nov-14 Minnesota Wisconsin 15.5%
14 29-Nov-14 Purdue Indiana 65.9%
14 29-Nov-14 Rutgers Maryland 18.7%

Title Games

From today's playoff projections piece at the mothership:

Michigan State vs. Nebraska: Michigan State 60%
Michigan State vs. Wisconsin: Michigan State 71%
Ohio State vs. Nebraska: Ohio State 65%
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin: Ohio State 75%

Michigan State and Ohio State should be rooting for an 11-1 Nebraska, for strength of schedule. The problem with that is simple: Nebraska might beat the Spartans or Buckeyes. And it would be interesting to see how high the Huskers might get if they get to 12-1 with a road win over Wisconsin and a neutral-site win over MSU or OSU.