:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/43482342/20131207_mje_ss1_1901.0.jpg)
Win projections
Just when I begin to grow confident in the idea of an 11-1 Nebraska team, Wisconsin starts to look like Wisconsin again. Now I'm not sure what to think about that Week 12 matchup. (Actually, I'm pretty sure I do know what to think, and it doesn't involve Nebraska finishing 11-1.)
Regardless, I'm just glad Ohio State and Michigan State are finally playing so I can stop hyphenating the two of them (as in, "the MSU-OSU winner").
| West | F/+ Ranking | Proj. Conf. Wins | Last Week (Change) | With Week 11 win | With Week 11 loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska (4-1, 8-1) | 14 | 6.29 | 6.43 (-0.13) | ||
| Wisconsin (3-1, 6-2) | 24 | 5.78 | 5.43 (+0.35) | 5.94 | 4.94 |
| Iowa (3-1, 6-2) | 41 | 4.79 | 3.99 (+0.80) | 5.37 | 4.37 |
| Minnesota (3-1, 6-2) | 45 | 3.94 | 4.18 (-0.24) | 4.37 | 3.37 |
| Northwestern (2-3, 3-5) | 68 | 3.54 | 4.44 (-0.90) | 4.12 | 3.12 |
| Purdue (1-4, 3-6) | 64 | 2.50 | 2.35 (+0.15) | 3.34 | 2.34 |
| Illinois (1-4, 4-5) | 88 | 1.53 | 1.68 (-0.15) | ||
| East | F/+ Ranking | Proj. Conf. Wins | Last Week (Change) | With Week 11 win | With Week 11 loss |
| Ohio State (4-0, 7-1) | 7 | 7.26 | 7.17 (+0.08) | 7.84 | 6.84 |
| Michigan State (4-0, 7-1) | 11 | 7.20 | 7.26 (-0.06) | 7.62 | 6.62 |
| Maryland (3-2, 6-3) | 42 | 4.63 | 3.72 (+0.91) | 2.99 | 1.99 |
| Michigan (2-3, 4-5) | 53 | 2.98 | 2.58 (+0.40) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Penn State (1-4, 4-4) | 44 | 2.78 | 3.48 (-0.70) | ||
| Rutgers (1-4, 5-4) | 65 | 1.99 | 2.38 (-0.39) | ||
| Indiana (0-4, 3-5) | 81 | 0.79 | 0.89 (-0.11) | 1.58 | 0.58 |
WEST
Serious contenders: Nebraska, Wisconsin
Minor contenders: Iowa
Great performances by both Wisconsin and Iowa decreased Nebraska's margin here. The Huskers are still projected to beat both of those teams on the road, but as you'll see with the odds below, there's only about a 47 percent chance of them winning both games. (And again, recent Wisconsin efforts make that seem more like 20%.) And since the three schools are all tied in the win column, that opens the door quite a bit, especially with Wisconsin and Iowa also playing in Week 13.
NU's still the favorite here, but buckle up for an interesting set of games.
EAST
Major contenders: Ohio State, Michigan State
Minor contenders: not so much
Basically, Ohio State gets the edge in projected wins above because the Buckeyes' remaining slate (at Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan) is easier than the Spartans' (at Maryland, Rutgers, at Penn State). Still, the MSU-OSU winner has tremendous odds of finishing 8-0 in conference, and as it currently stands, MSU has about a 58 percent chance of becoming that winner.
All Projections
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 11 | 08-Nov-14 | Iowa | Minnesota | 42.6% |
| 11 | 08-Nov-14 | Michigan | Northwestern | 57.7% |
| 11 | 08-Nov-14 | Ohio State | Michigan State | 42.2% |
| 11 | 08-Nov-14 | Penn State | Indiana | 78.9% |
| 11 | 08-Nov-14 | Wisconsin | Purdue | 84.3% |
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Indiana | Rutgers | 23.1% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Iowa | Illinois | 85.3% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Michigan State | Maryland | 81.5% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Nebraska | Wisconsin | 60.1% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Ohio State | Minnesota | 88.0% |
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Indiana | Ohio State | 1.4% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Maryland | Michigan | 62.6% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Minnesota | Nebraska | 9.3% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Northwestern | Purdue | 33.4% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Penn State | Illinois | 82.3% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Rutgers | Michigan State | 2.7% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Wisconsin | Iowa | 69.0% |
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 14 | 28-Nov-14 | Nebraska | Iowa | 78.5% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Illinois | Northwestern | 20.6% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Michigan | Ohio State | 3.2% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Michigan State | Penn State | 84.3% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Minnesota | Wisconsin | 15.5% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Purdue | Indiana | 65.9% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Rutgers | Maryland | 18.7% |
Title Games
From today's playoff projections piece at the mothership:
Michigan State vs. Nebraska: Michigan State 60%
Michigan State vs. Wisconsin: Michigan State 71%
Ohio State vs. Nebraska: Ohio State 65%
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin: Ohio State 75%Michigan State and Ohio State should be rooting for an 11-1 Nebraska, for strength of schedule. The problem with that is simple: Nebraska might beat the Spartans or Buckeyes. And it would be interesting to see how high the Huskers might get if they get to 12-1 with a road win over Wisconsin and a neutral-site win over MSU or OSU.