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Now that Brian Fremeau and I have had a moment to breathe after the regular season's end, we have taken to updating our formulas a bit. Brian updated his 2007-10 FEI pages to include offense, defense and special teams ratings, while I made some tweaks to the 2005-11 S&P+ data that improved its correlations to win percentage. That can only mean one thing: new F/+ rankings!
We never officially unveiled F/+ ratings for earlier than 2010 at Outsiders, so I'm taking this opportunity to unveil one at a time, starting with 2005, the first year for which we have full play-by-play data. The 2006 rankings will be posted tomorrow, 2007 Wednesday, etc.
New 2005 S&P+ Rankings
Official 2005 F/+ Rankings
Expanded 2005 Off. S&P+ Rankings
Expanded 2006 Def. S&P+ Rankings
The F/+ Top 40 for 2005 is below. The entire list can be found at Outsiders. Some quick notes:
- I think it's safe to say the right team is No. 1. And as would be expected, USC grades out tremendously high (one of the highest of the last seven seasons) as well. (Read the Classic Study Hall piece on the 2006 Rose Bowl here.)
- Ohio State, Penn State and Virginia Tech all grade out a bit better than I would have guessed -- I didn't figure anybody else in this season would even cross +25.0%.
- As we go year to year, watch the progression of TCU from "mid-major that wins a lot of games" to "downright fantastic team at any level." In a lot of ways, it's the same story with Wisconsin, only without the "mid-major" part.
F/+ Rk | Team | Record | F/+ | S&P+ | S&P+ Rk | FEI | FEI Rk |
1 | Texas | 13-0 | +35.9% | 279.9 | 1 | 0.342 | 1 |
2 | USC | 12-1 | +33.3% | 272.4 | 2 | 0.326 | 2 |
3 | Ohio State | 10-2 | +29.2% | 264.8 | 3 | 0.283 | 3 |
4 | Penn State | 11-1 | +28.6% | 264.4 | 4 | 0.272 | 4 |
5 | Virginia Tech | 11-2 | +27.0% | 259.7 | 5 | 0.262 | 5 |
6 | Miami | 9-3 | +22.2% | 253.8 | 6 | 0.196 | 12 |
7 | LSU | 11-2 | +21.7% | 242.8 | 8 | 0.241 | 6 |
8 | Alabama | 10-2 | +20.7% | 247.2 | 7 | 0.199 | 11 |
9 | Auburn | 9-3 | +19.6% | 239.6 | 9 | 0.214 | 10 |
10 | Notre Dame | 9-3 | +19.5% | 237.2 | 11 | 0.224 | 8 |
11 | Georgia | 10-3 | +19.3% | 236.0 | 13 | 0.226 | 7 |
12 | Michigan | 7-5 | +17.2% | 229.8 | 18 | 0.215 | 9 |
13 | West Virginia | 11-1 | +16.3% | 230.4 | 17 | 0.193 | 13 |
14 | Boston College | 9-3 | +16.2% | 236.8 | 12 | 0.161 | 19 |
15 | Oregon | 10-2 | +15.6% | 231.0 | 15 | 0.177 | 15 |
16 | Florida | 9-3 | +15.5% | 229.2 | 19 | 0.184 | 14 |
17 | Clemson | 8-4 | +15.2% | 230.5 | 16 | 0.170 | 18 |
18 | Louisville | 9-3 | +14.9% | 239.0 | 10 | 0.123 | 26 |
19 | Oklahoma | 8-4 | +14.7% | 235.6 | 14 | 0.134 | 23 |
20 | TCU | 11-1 | +13.4% | 223.5 | 23 | 0.170 | 16 |
F/+ Rk | Team | Record | F/+ | S&P+ | S&P+ Rk | FEI | FEI Rk |
21 | Iowa | 7-5 | +13.4% | 223.2 | 24 | 0.170 | 17 |
22 | Texas Tech | 9-3 | +13.3% | 227.3 | 20 | 0.149 | 22 |
23 | Florida State | 8-5 | +13.2% | 224.8 | 21 | 0.158 | 20 |
24 | Minnesota | 7-5 | +10.8% | 223.6 | 22 | 0.116 | 28 |
25 | Wisconsin | 10-3 | +10.2% | 213.1 | 40 | 0.157 | 21 |
26 | Tennessee | 5-6 | +10.1% | 223.1 | 25 | 0.106 | 31 |
27 | Georgia Tech | 7-5 | +9.8% | 221.6 | 26 | 0.106 | 30 |
28 | N.C. State | 7-5 | +9.2% | 216.7 | 33 | 0.119 | 27 |
29 | Iowa State | 7-5 | +8.9% | 212.8 | 41 | 0.132 | 24 |
30 | Arizona State | 7-5 | +8.9% | 218.2 | 31 | 0.104 | 32 |
31 | Nebraska | 8-4 | +8.1% | 210.3 | 45 | 0.128 | 25 |
32 | UCLA | 10-2 | +7.8% | 219.6 | 30 | 0.077 | 35 |
33 | Northwestern | 7-5 | +7.8% | 220.0 | 29 | 0.074 | 36 |
34 | Tulsa | 9-4 | +7.3% | 211.5 | 42 | 0.107 | 29 |
35 | California | 8-4 | +7.2% | 214.4 | 39 | 0.090 | 33 |
36 | Fresno State | 8-5 | +6.1% | 214.9 | 37 | 0.065 | 37 |
37 | Maryland | 5-6 | +6.1% | 215.2 | 36 | 0.063 | 38 |
38 | South Florida | 6-6 | +5.9% | 215.4 | 35 | 0.059 | 40 |
39 | Kansas | 7-5 | +5.6% | 221.2 | 27 | 0.024 | 50 |
40 | Colorado | 7-6 | +5.2% | 220.4 | 28 | 0.020 | 53 |