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Fun With Run-Pass Ratios

By Bill C.
NEW YORK, NY - NOVEMBER 12: Members of the Army Black Knights run onto the field before a game against Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Yankee Stadium on November 12, 2011 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - NOVEMBER 12: Members of the Army Black Knights run onto the field before a game against Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Yankee Stadium on November 12, 2011 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
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Alright, next up on the "giant lists for today's Varsity Numbers": Run-Pass Ratios. Below are teams ranked by what I'm calling "Adj. Run%." The premise is pretty simple: look at teams' run percentages on both standard downs and passing downs, then "adjust" the overall number to see where teams' intentions would lie if everybody ran the same number of plays on standard downs and passing downs.

If you have a terrible offense that can't stay out of passing downs, you're probably going to attempt a lot of passes whether you want to or not. The goal "Adj. Run%" is to get a glimpse at what teams intend to do, not just what teams are required by circumstance to do.

In Varsity Numbers, we're going to look at the teams whose mentality changes drastically from standard downs to passing downs. Teams like Nevada, which is one of the runningest teams in the country on standard downs, then goes all-in on the pass on passing downs. The "SD-to-PD Diff" column, then, looks at the different between teams' Run% rankings on standard downs and passing downs. But I'll save that analysis for Varsity Numbers (since at some point I actually have to finish it instead of just posting lists here.)

Offense Std. Downs
Run% 		Rk Pass. Downs
Run%
 Rk SD-to-PD
Diff		 Adj.
Run%
 Rk
Army 91.4% 1 75.7% 1 0 86.5% 1
Navy 88.9% 2 64.0% 2 0 81.3% 2
Georgia Tech 87.2% 3 62.1% 3 0 79.5% 3
Air Force 82.3% 5 59.8% 4 1 75.4% 4
Eastern Michigan 80.2% 6 57.4% 5 1 73.2% 5
Temple 82.9% 4 47.2% 8 -4 71.9% 6
Ohio State 77.5% 7 44.0% 12 -5 67.2% 7
Nebraska 74.4% 9 44.0% 12 -3 65.1% 8
Kansas State 72.5% 12 44.9% 11 1 64.0% 9
LSU 74.6% 8 39.4% 22 -14 63.8% 10
Utah State 72.2% 14 42.8% 15 -1 63.1% 11
Michigan 72.3% 13 40.5% 20 -7 62.5% 12
Oregon 68.1% 21 49.3% 6 15 62.3% 13
Auburn 72.9% 11 35.5% 42 -31 61.4% 14
Kansas 70.0% 17 41.1% 17 0 61.1% 15
Texas 73.5% 10 32.3% 65 -55 60.8% 16
Wisconsin 68.9% 19 42.1% 16 3 60.7% 17
Western Kentucky 67.2% 22 45.2% 10 12 60.4% 18
UCLA 69.1% 18 39.7% 21 -3 60.1% 19
UNLV 70.4% 16 33.3% 58 -42 59.0% 20
Virginia Tech 66.2% 27 40.8% 19 8 58.4% 21
Northern Illinois 66.8% 23 39.2% 23 0 58.3% 22
Minnesota 68.9% 20 33.5% 57 -37 58.0% 23
Illinois 63.2% 38 45.8% 9 29 57.9% 24
South Carolina 66.7% 24 37.7% 29 -5 57.8% 25

Full list after the jump.

Offense Std. Downs
Run% 		Rk Pass. Downs
Run%
 Rk SD-to-PD
Diff		 Adj.
Run%
 Rk
Nevada 72.1% 15 25.1% 103 -88 57.7% 26
Florida 66.3% 26 36.5% 35 -9 57.2% 27
Georgia 60.9% 55 48.5% 7 48 57.1% 28
Vanderbilt 65.1% 29 36.9% 33 -4 56.4% 29
TCU 64.2% 31 38.6% 26 5 56.4% 30
Ole Miss 64.8% 30 37.2% 30 0 56.3% 31
Missouri 63.9% 32 38.0% 28 4 55.9% 32
Boston College 66.6% 25 31.5% 69 -44 55.8% 33
Alabama 60.8% 56 43.6% 14 42 55.5% 34
Mississippi State 62.0% 45 40.8% 18 27 55.5% 35
Penn State 62.6% 42 39.2% 24 18 55.4% 36
Northwestern 62.9% 39 37.1% 31 8 55.0% 37
Toledo 63.8% 34 35.1% 45 -11 55.0% 38
San Diego State 63.9% 33 34.6% 50 -17 54.9% 39
Offense Std. Downs
Run% 		Rk Pass. Downs
Run%
 Rk SD-to-PD
Diff		 Adj.
Run%
 Rk
North Texas 65.7% 28 30.3% 76 -48 54.8% 40
Utah 63.3% 37 35.8% 40 -3 54.8% 41
Ohio 63.4% 36 34.8% 49 -13 54.6% 42
Indiana 62.9% 40 35.6% 41 -1 54.5% 43
Tulsa 61.6% 46 36.9% 32 14 54.0% 44
Rice 61.0% 54 38.3% 27 27 54.0% 45
Miami-FL 60.6% 57 38.9% 25 32 53.9% 46
Connecticut 61.4% 48 36.1% 37 11 53.6% 47
Florida International 63.7% 35 30.4% 75 -40 53.5% 48
Cincinnati 61.1% 51 36.1% 38 13 53.4% 49
Purdue 62.1% 44 34.0% 53 -9 53.4% 50
Central Florida 62.6% 43 32.6% 63 -20 53.4% 51
Virginia 61.3% 50 35.0% 47 3 53.2% 52
Kent State 61.6% 47 34.2% 52 -5 53.2% 53
North Carolina 61.1% 53 32.4% 64 -11 52.3% 54
Wyoming 62.9% 41 27.9% 92 -51 52.1% 55
Iowa State 58.7% 65 35.8% 39 26 51.6% 56
Stanford 58.4% 66 36.3% 36 30 51.6% 57
Louisiana Tech 59.5% 61 33.3% 58 3 51.5% 58
Kentucky 61.3% 49 28.3% 85 -36 51.1% 59
Southern Miss 61.1% 52 28.3% 84 -32 51.1% 60
Offense Std. Downs
Run% 		Rk Pass. Downs
Run%
 Rk SD-to-PD
Diff		 Adj.
Run%
 Rk
Michigan State 59.9% 60 30.0% 77 -17 50.7% 61
Marshall 57.7% 72 34.9% 48 24 50.7% 62
BYU 58.4% 67 32.9% 62 5 50.5% 63
South Florida 60.2% 59 28.2% 87 -28 50.3% 64
UL-Lafayette 56.3% 80 36.8% 34 46 50.3% 65
Louisville 57.9% 71 33.2% 60 11 50.3% 66
Iowa 56.9% 76 34.2% 51 25 49.9% 67
New Mexico 58.0% 70 31.0% 72 -2 49.7% 68
California 56.0% 81 35.1% 46 35 49.6% 69
Tennessee 59.3% 62 27.5% 93 -31 49.5% 70
Baylor 56.7% 78 33.1% 61 17 49.5% 71
Arkansas State 58.9% 63 27.9% 91 -28 49.4% 72
Memphis 60.5% 58 24.0% 107 -49 49.3% 73
Boise State 58.1% 69 29.2% 80 -11 49.2% 74
Clemson 58.2% 68 28.0% 90 -22 48.9% 75
Colorado State 57.5% 74 29.4% 79 -5 48.9% 76
Washington 56.7% 79 31.1% 71 8 48.8% 77
UTEP 55.0% 85 33.6% 55 30 48.4% 78
Pittsburgh 57.6% 73 26.5% 99 -26 48.1% 79
Akron 53.8% 90 35.1% 44 46 48.0% 80
Offense Std. Downs
Run% 		Rk Pass. Downs
Run%
 Rk SD-to-PD
Diff		 Adj.
Run%
 Rk
Ball State 55.0% 84 31.5% 70 14 47.8% 81
Texas A&M 58.8% 64 22.6% 110 -46 47.7% 82
Wake Forest 54.3% 88 32.0% 67 21 47.4% 83
Florida Atlantic 53.4% 95 33.6% 55 40 47.3% 84
Rutgers 57.3% 75 24.3% 105 -30 47.2% 85
New Mexico State 53.1% 96 33.7% 54 42 47.2% 86
Maryland 53.7% 93 32.2% 66 27 47.1% 87
Buffalo 55.9% 82 26.3% 101 -19 46.8% 88
Florida State 54.6% 86 29.2% 81 5 46.8% 89
UL-Monroe 53.7% 91 30.9% 73 18 46.7% 90
NC State 56.9% 77 23.0% 108 -31 46.5% 91
USC 51.1% 105 35.2% 43 62 46.2% 92
Bowling Green 55.7% 83 24.5% 104 -21 46.1% 93
Colorado 54.2% 89 26.6% 96 -7 45.7% 94
Notre Dame 53.0% 97 28.9% 82 15 45.6% 95
Tulane 53.5% 94 26.7% 94 0 45.3% 96
Fresno State 51.3% 103 31.7% 68 35 45.2% 97
Idaho 51.2% 104 30.7% 74 30 44.9% 98
Syracuse 52.2% 99 28.0% 89 10 44.7% 99
Arizona State 53.7% 91 24.1% 106 -15 44.6% 100
Offense Std. Downs
Run% 		Rk Pass. Downs
Run%
 Rk SD-to-PD
Diff		 Adj.
Run%
 Rk
Middle Tennessee 54.4% 87 20.4% 113 -26 43.9% 101
Miami-OH 51.6% 102 26.5% 98 4 43.9% 102
Arkansas 49.8% 106 28.2% 86 20 43.2% 103
San Jose State 51.6% 101 21.7% 112 -11 42.4% 104
Duke 52.3% 98 19.9% 114 -16 42.4% 105
UAB 47.9% 110 29.8% 78 32 42.3% 106
Washington State 49.1% 108 26.6% 97 11 42.2% 107
Central Michigan 49.2% 107 22.8% 109 -2 41.1% 108
Oklahoma 51.9% 100 15.3% 120 -20 40.6% 109
Western Michigan 48.3% 109 22.3% 111 -2 40.3% 110
West Virginia 45.7% 113 25.5% 102 11 39.5% 111
Oklahoma State 44.4% 114 26.3% 100 14 38.9% 112
Houston 42.8% 117 28.3% 83 34 38.3% 113
East Carolina 42.9% 116 28.1% 88 28 38.3% 114
Texas Tech 47.8% 111 16.9% 119 -8 38.3% 115
Troy 46.8% 112 18.9% 116 -4 38.2% 116
SMU 42.7% 118 26.7% 95 23 37.8% 117
Oregon State 44.2% 115 19.7% 115 0 36.7% 118
Arizona 40.0% 119 18.3% 118 1 33.3% 119
Hawaii 35.3% 120 18.7% 117 3 30.2% 120

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