Auburn 27, Jacksonville State 20
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Auburn | JSU | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 70 | 89 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 32.1 | 27.2 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 11 | 12 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
6 | 7 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 3.33 | 2.86 | 4.80 |
| Leverage Rate** | 72.9% | 73.0% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P;*** | 0.607 | 0.570 | 0.584 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P; formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Auburn | JSU | |
| Total | 36.2 | 39.5 | |
| Rushing | 14.9 | 16.5 | |
| Passing | 21.3 | 22.9 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Auburn | JSU | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 50.0% | 48.3% | 41.3% |
| Rushing (close) | 44.7% | 43.2% | 42.5% |
| Passing (close) | 56.3% | 53.3% | 40.1% |
| Standard Downs | 49.0% | 60.0% | 46.8% |
| Passing Downs | 52.6% | 16.7% | 29.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Auburn | JSU | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.03 | 0.92 | 1.27 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.88 | 0.87 | 1.06 |
| Passing (close) | 1.18 | 0.95 | 1.49 |
| Standard Downs | 0.86 | 0.89 | 1.10 |
| Passing Downs | 1.48 | 1.16 | 1.83 |
| Line Stats | Auburn | JSU | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.19 | 3.03 | 2.80 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.1% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 13.3% | 6.6% |
| Turnovers | Auburn | JSU |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 3 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 13.5 | 3.1 |
| Turnover Margin | JSU +2 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Auburn +1.9 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | JSU +3.9 | |
| TO Points Margin | JSU +10.5 points | |
| Situational | Auburn | JSU |
| Q1 S&P; | 0.586 | 0.620 |
| Q2 S&P; | 0.453 | 0.591 |
| Q3 S&P; | 0.705 | 0.646 |
| Q4 S&P; | 0.714 | 0.593 |
| 1st Down S&P; | 0.641 | 0.614 |
| 2nd Down S&P; | 0.562 | 0.569 |
| 3rd Down S&P; | 0.644 | 0.566 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: JSU by 13.7 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Auburn by 7 | ||
Auburn was both lucky (points and turnovers suggested a pretty healthy JSU win) and unlucky (the turnover gods smiled significantly on the Gamecocks). Regardless, Auburn ended up winning because the Tigers were better at finishing chances and bailing themselves out on passing downs. (And, perhaps, because JSU completely forfeited the final 40 seconds of regulation. Fortune favors the bold. Okay, that's in no way always true, but bold is more fun either way.)
