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Bill Connelly

Beat you with mine, beat you with yours

Give me your top five active college football coaches in terms of their "Beat you with their guys, then beat you with yours" ability.

Masters of the three-and-out

Which teams forced the highest frequency of three-and-outs a year ago?

Sign up for the 2013 Charting Project!

How many games can we chart in 2013?

What are your 10 formative games?

What's your list? We all have one.

Featured Fanshot

Bill on Solid Verbal

I always enjoy chatting with Dan and Ty. There's just enough book talk for me to justify putting it on the Study Hall hub, though there will likely be another appearance in another month or so.

A book announcement

For the last six months, I've been putting the pieces together for a book about, well, college football.

Adjusting completion percentages

Where Collin Klein is underrated again and Matt Barkley is still overrated.

College football's curveball

College football coaches lean on the no-back on third-and-6, but nobody makes it the focal point of their offense.

2005-12 Targets and catches

In which Harry Douglas finally gets his due and Marqise Lee's standout season stands out even further.

The 2012 Charting Project

SB Nation's research and analytics interns charted over 100 games from the 2012 college football season. It's time to start finding out what we can learn from the data.


In the first offseason Varsity Numbers of 2013, I unveil a big series of data adjustments. Give it a look!

Super early 2013 projections

Let the conversation begin.

Shared from:

Bill talks tennis

They let me write about tennis, too.

VARSITY NUMBERS: Farewell, 2012

In my season-ending Varsity Numbers column at Football Outsiders, I share 10 thoughts on the season and the year-end rankings.

VARSITY NUMBERS: Your best against the best

This week's Varsity Numbers revisits the concept of Covariance and what it can tell us about teams and their personality.

VARSITY NUMBERS: Let's Rate Some Receivers!

Not that we need math to tell us Marqise Lee is amazing...

F/+ Picks, Week 11

Here's to a rebound.

Retrofitting, Revisited

A giant table comparing S&P+ projections to actual results.


Making sense of some funky numbers.

The Numerical: Bonus Footage

Were you thinking to yourself, "I'd like 50% more Numerical this week!"? Then you're in luck!

VARSITY NUMBERS: Adj. Score Revisited

In today's Varsity Numbers, I once again discuss Adj. Points, one of my favorite concepts and one I still feel I haven't explained adequately enough.

VARSITY NUMBERS: Taking stock after 7 weeks

In this week's Varsity Numbers, I take a look at some of the more surprising rankings thus far, now that all preseason projections have been phased out of the numbers.

F/+ Picks, Week 8: I smell craziness

Lots of road favorites? I smell a crazy week coming...

VARSITY NUMBERS: Your team versus third down.

A look at the teams that are really good on third downs, not necessarily the ones who do the dirty work on first and second downs.

Data sharing: Join the team

There are so many topics I've vowed to explore but haven't had the time to pursue to the fullest extent. We need more spoons in the pot. Come aboard.

VARSITY NUMBERS: The weird, wacky Big 12

This week's Varsity Numbers is up at Football Outsiders.

F/+ Picks, Week 6

Projections for Week 6 of the 2012 college football season.

Turnovers and Luck: 2012

Mississippi State has been absurdly lucky so far, and Wisconsin has been equally unlucky. And Notre Dame's (for the better) and Utah's (worse) turnover fortunes have changed dramatically.


This week's Varsity Numbers is up over at Football Outsiders. In it, I discuss September's bigger surprises, the teams who are what we thought they were, the teams we weren't skeptical enough about, and ... Texas Tech, apparently your No. 6 team.

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The SEC road trip: 9 states, lots of food

Bill Connelly, a Mizzou fan, attempted to take in just about all of his new conference in a single weekend. Roll with him through nine Southern states for a newcomer's look at the weirdest (and most edible) region in America.

VARSITY NUMBERS: A Disruptive Presence

VARSITY NUMBERS: Fun With Early Data

With multiple weeks of data (for most teams) and the slightest of opponent adjustments taking hold in the numbers, I thought it would be interesting to seek out potential trends in the early-season football data.