Confused? See the glossary at the bottom.

2011 Schedule & Results
Record: 11-3 | Adj. Record: 14-0 | Final F/+ Rk: 6 | |||||
Date | Opponent | Score | W-L | Adj. Score | Adj. W-L |
1-Sep | UNLV | 51-17 | W | 37.9 - 31.8 | W |
10-Sep | Oregon State | 35-0 | W | 27.1 - 21.4 | W |
17-Sep | vs. Northern Illinois | 49-7 | W | 38.0 - 21.1 | W |
24-Sep | South Dakota | 59-10 | W | 35.0 - 24.2 | W |
1-Oct | Nebraska | 48-17 | W | 39.0 - 27.8 | W |
15-Oct | Indiana | 59-7 | W | 32.2 - 23.5 | W |
22-Oct | at Michigan State | 31-37 | L | 42.3 - 30.2 | W |
29-Oct | at Ohio State | 29-33 | L | 30.4 - 27.7 | W |
5-Nov | Purdue | 62-17 | W | 39.2 - 23.7 | W |
12-Nov | at Minnesota | 42-13 | W | 37.0 - 22.3 | W |
19-Nov | at Illinois | 28-17 | W | 34.4 - 29.0 | W |
26-Nov | Penn State | 45-7 | W | 40.7 - 23.3 | W |
3-Dec | vs. Michigan State | 42-39 | W | 40.6 - 32.8 | W |
2-Jan | vs. Oregon | 38-45 | L | 34.8 - 31.3 | W |
Category | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk |
Points Per Game | 44.1 | 6 | 19.0 | 13 |
Adj. Points Per Game | 36.3 | 1 | 26.4 | 43 |
2012 Schedule & Projection Factors
2012 Schedule | ||
Date | Opponent | Proj. Rk |
1-Sep | Northern Iowa | NR |
8-Sep | at Oregon State | 74 |
15-Sep | Utah State | 79 |
22-Sep | UTEP | 104 |
29-Sep | at Nebraska | 24 |
6-Oct | Illinois | 51 |
13-Oct | at Purdue | 70 |
20-Oct | Minnesota | 96 |
27-Oct | Michigan State | 19 |
10-Nov | at Indiana | 98 |
17-Nov | Ohio State | 20 |
24-Nov | at Penn State | 37 |
Five-Year F/+ Rk | 14 |
Two-Year Recruiting Rk | 41 |
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* | +16 / +17.7 |
TO Luck/Game | -0.6 |
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) | 10 (4, 6) |
Yds/Pt Margin** | -6.0 |
Offense

Category | Yards/ Game Rk |
S&P+ Rk | Success Rt. Rk |
PPP+ Rk |
OVERALL | 14 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
RUSHING | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
PASSING | 61 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Standard Downs | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
Passing Downs | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
Redzone | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Q1 Rk | 1 | 1st Down Rk | 2 |
Q2 Rk | 1 | 2nd Down Rk | 1 |
Q3 Rk | 6 | 3rd Down Rk | 3 |
Q4 Rk | 7 | ||
Adj. Line Yards Rk | 4 | ||
Adj. Sack Rate Rk | 63 |
Quarterback
Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.
Player | Ht, Wt | 2012 Year |
Rivals | Comp | Att | Yards | Comp Rate |
TD | INT | Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
Russell Wilson | 225 | 309 | 3,175 | 72.8% | 33 | 4 | 23 | 6.9% | 9.1 | |||
Danny O'Brien^ | 6'3, 215 | Jr. | *** (5.5) | 150 | 266 | 1,648 | 56.4% | 7 | 10 | 7 | 2.6% | 5.8 |
Joe Brennan | 6'3, 213 | So. | *** (5.5) | 6 | 15 | 48 | 40.0% | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16.7% | 1.0 |
Joel Stave | 6'5, 223 | So. | ** (5.4) | |||||||||
Bart Houston | 6'4, 201 | Fr. | *** (5.7) |
^ O'Brien is a Maryland transfer and eligible to play this fall.
Running Back
Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2012 Year |
Rivals | Rushes | Yards | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Carry |
TD | Adj. POE |
Montee Ball | RB | 5'11, 212 | Sr. | **** (5.8) | 307 | 1,923 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 33 | +57.2 |
James White | RB | 5'10, 197 | Jr. | *** (5.7) | 141 | 713 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 6 | -0.9 |
Russell Wilson | QB | 56 | 483 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 6 | +16.7 | |||
Jeffrey Lewis | RB | 6'2, 212 | So. | *** (5.6) | 33 | 187 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 1 | -0.8 |
Melvin Gordon | RB | 6'1, 205 | RSFr. | **** (5.8) | 20 | 98 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 1 | -0.3 |
Jared Abbrederis | WR | 6'2, 180 | Jr. | NR | 11 | 62 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0 | +0.3 |
Vonte Jackson | RB | 6'0, 175 | Fr. | **** (5.8) |
Receiving Corps
Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2012 Year |
Rivals | Targets | Catches | Yards | Catch Rate | Target Rate |
%SD | Adj. Yds/ Target |
Nick Toon | WR | 89 | 64 | 926 | 71.9% | 28.5% | 68.5% | 10.2 | |||
Jared Abbrederis | WR | 6'2, 180 | Jr. | NR | 74 | 55 | 933 | 74.3% | 23.7% | 70.3% | 13.9 |
Jacob Pedersen | TE | 6'4, 242 | Jr. | ** (5.2) | 41 | 30 | 356 | 73.2% | 13.1% | 65.9% | 8.6 |
Montee Ball | RB | 5'11, 212 | Sr. | **** (5.8) | 34 | 24 | 306 | 70.6% | 10.9% | 41.2% | 7.9 |
Jeff Duckworth | WR | 6'0, 212 | Jr. | *** (5.5) | 24 | 15 | 230 | 62.5% | 7.7% | 29.2% | 6.9 |
Bradie Ewing | FB | 20 | 20 | 246 | 100.0% | 6.4% | 70.0% | 15.4 | |||
James White | RB | 5'10, 197 | Jr. | *** (5.7) | 17 | 15 | 150 | 88.2% | 5.4% | 58.8% | 10.3 |
Jake Byrne | TE | 4 | 1 | 14 | 25.0% | 1.3% | 75.0% | 3.5 | |||
Manasseh Garner | WR | 6'2, 213 | Jr. | *** (5.5) | 2 | 2 | 45 | 100.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 22.5 |
Isaiah Williams | WR | 6'1, 194 | Jr. | *** (5.5) | |||||||
Chase Hammond | WR | 6'5, 212 | Jr. | *** (5.5) |
Offensive Line
Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2012 Year |
Rivals | Career Starts/Honors/Notes |
Kevin Zeitler | G | 36 career starts, 2011 1st All-Big Ten | |||
Josh Oglesby | T | 28 career starts, 2011 1st All-Big Ten | |||
Travis Frederick | C | 6'4, 328 | Jr. | *** (5.5 | 17 career starts, 2011 2nd All-Big Ten |
Peter Konz | G | 30 career starts | |||
Ricky Wagner | T | 6'6, 322 | Sr. | NR | 24 career starts |
Ryan Groy | G | 6'5, 322 | Jr. | *** (5.6) | 7 career starts |
Rob Havenstein | T | 6'8, 343 | So. | *** (5.6) | 2 career starts |
Casey Dehn | G | 6'6, 334 | Jr. | ** (5.4) | 1 career start |
Robert Burge | G | 6'7, 320 | Sr. | NR | |
Jake Current | C | ||||
Kyle Costigan | G | 6'4, 305 | Jr. | ** (5.3) | |
Ray Ball | G | 6'7, 326 | RSFr. | *** (5.5) | |
Dan Voltz | C | 6'4, 288 | Fr. | **** (5.8) | |
Walker Williams | OL | 6'7, 320 | Fr. | *** (5.7) | |
Jake Meador | OL | 6'7, 305 | Fr. | *** (5.7) |
Defense

Category | Yards/ Game Rk |
S&P+ Rk | Success Rt. Rk |
PPP+ Rk |
OVERALL | 15 | 66 | 74 | 68 |
RUSHING | 60 | 70 | 56 | 82 |
PASSING | 4 | 67 | 90 | 55 |
Standard Downs | 78 | 70 | 83 | |
Passing Downs | 19 | 29 | 20 | |
Redzone | 48 | 69 | 37 |
Q1 Rk | 75 | 1st Down Rk | 79 |
Q2 Rk | 97 | 2nd Down Rk | 30 |
Q3 Rk | 13 | 3rd Down Rk | 56 |
Q4 Rk | 43 | ||
Adj. Line Yards Rk | 64 | ||
Adj. Sack Rate Rk | 65 |
Defensive Line
Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | 2012 Year |
Rivals | GP | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Louis Nzegwu | DE | 14 | 27.0 | 3.7% | 7 | 4.5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
Brendan Kelly | DE | 6'6, 255 | Sr. | *** (5.6) | 14 | 24.5 | 3.3% | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | ||
Ethan Hemer | DT | 6'6, 305 | Jr. | NR | 14 | 23.0 | 3.1% | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
Tyler Dippel | DE | 6'4, 255 | Jr. | *** (5.5) | 14 | 19.0 | 2.6% | 3 | 1 | ||||
Beau Allen | DT | 6'3, 323 | Jr. | *** (5.6) | 14 | 16.5 | 2.2% | 5.5 | 4 | 1 | |||
Jordan Kohout | DT | 6'3, 292 | Jr. | **** (5.8) | 14 | 15.0 | 2.0% | 2.5 | 1 | ||||
Patrick Butrym | DT | 14 | 14.0 | 1.9% | 3.5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||||
Pat Muldoon | DE | 6'3, 258 | Sr. | *** (5.7) | 12 | 10.5 | 1.4% | 0.5 | 3 | ||||
David Gilbert | DE | 6'4, 250 | Jr. | **** (5.8) | 4 | 7.0 | 0.9% | 3.5 | 3 | 1 | |||
Warren Herring | DE | 6'3, 273 | So. | *** (5.5) | 8 | 6.0 | 0.8% | 1 | |||||
Bryce Gilbert | DT | 6'1, 304 | Jr. | *** (5.6) | 4 | 2.0 | 0.3% | ||||||
Konrad Zagzebski | DE | 6'3, 258 | So. | *** (5.6) | 5 | 1.5 | 0.2% |
Linebackers
Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | 2012 Year |
Rivals | GP | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Mike Taylor | WLB | 6'2, 222 | Sr. | ** (5.4) | 14 | 105.0 | 14.2% | 9 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Chris Borland | MLB | 5'11, 250 | Jr. | *** (5.5) | 14 | 103.5 | 14.0% | 19 | 2.5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | |
Kevin Claxton | SLB | 13 | 32.5 | 4.4% | 6.5 | 1 | |||||||
Conor O'Neill | SLB | 6'0, 225 | Jr. | *** (5.5) | 14 | 22.0 | 3.0% | 1.5 | 2 | 1 | |||
Ethan Armstrong | SLB | 6'2, 225 | Jr. | ** (5.4) | 12 | 21.5 | 2.9% | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
Derek Landisch | WLB | 5'11, 226 | So. | *** (5.5) | 14 | 13.5 | 1.8% | 1 | 1 | ||||
Marcus Trotter | MLB | 6'0, 222 | So. | *** (5.7) | 5 | 3.0 | 0.4% | ||||||
A.J. Fenton | SLB | 6'1, 219 | Sr. | *** (5.5) | 12 | 0.5 | 0.1% | ||||||
Derek Watt | LB | 6'2, 225 | RSFr. | *** (5.6) | |||||||||
Vince Biegel | LB | 6'3, 210 | Fr. | **** (5.9) |
Secondary
Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | 2012 Year |
Rivals | GP | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Aaron Henry | FS | 14 | 55.5 | 7.5% | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | |||||
Antonio Fenelus | CB | 14 | 42.0 | 5.7% | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||||||
Shelton Johnson | FS | 6'0, 200 | Sr. | ** (5.2) | 13 | 38.5 | 5.2% | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | ||
Marcus Cromartie | CB | 6'1, 188 | Sr. | *** (5.6) | 14 | 36.5 | 4.9% | 0.5 | 3 | 1 | |||
Dezmen Southward | SS | 6'2, 210 | Jr. | ** (5.3) | 13 | 25.5 | 3.5% | 2 | 2 | ||||
Peniel Jean | CB | 5'11, 190 | So. | *** (5.7) | 14 | 20.5 | 2.8% | 1 | 2 | ||||
Devin Smith | DB | 5'11, 190 | Sr. | *** (5.5) | 2 | 6.5 | 0.9% | 1 | |||||
Devin Gaulden | CB | 5'10, 190 | So. | *** (5.5) | 6 | 3.0 | 0.4% | ||||||
Michael Trotter | FS | 6'0, 210 | So. | *** (5.7) | 12 | 1.0 | 0.1% | ||||||
Michael Caputo | SS | 6'1, 205 | RSFr. | *** (5.6) | |||||||||
Darius Hillary | CB | 5'11, 185 | RSFr. | *** (5.5) | |||||||||
D.J. Singleton | DB | 6'3, 200 | Fr. | *** (5.7) | |||||||||
Hugs Etienne | DB | 5'11, 175 | Fr. | *** (5.7) |
Special Teams
Punter | Ht, Wt | 2012 Year |
Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
Brad Norman | 46 | 42.2 | 3 | 17 | 19 | 78.3% |
Kicker | Ht, Wt | 2012 Year |
Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% |
Alec Lerner | 61 | 62.4 | 7 | 11.5% | ||
Philip Welch | 41 | 61.9 | 10 | 24.4% |
Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | 2012 Year |
PAT | FG (0-39) |
Pct | FG (40+) |
Pct |
Philip Welch | 54-55 | 3-4 | 75.0% | 2-2 | 100.0% | ||
Kyle French | 6'1, 193 | So. | 26-27 | 3-3 | 100.0% | 0-2 | 0.0% |
Returner | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2012 Year |
Returns | Avg. | TD |
Jared Abbrederis | KR | 6'2, 180 | Jr. | 28 | 24.6 | 0 |
James White | KR | 5'10, 197 | Jr. | 15 | 21.0 | 0 |
Kenzel Doe | KR | 5'8, 170 | So. | 3 | 13.7 | 0 |
Jared Abbrederis | PR | 6'2, 180 | Jr. | 20 | 15.8 | 1 |
Category | Rk |
Special Teams F/+ | 40 |
Net Punting | 64 |
Net Kickoffs | 79 |
Touchback Pct | 52 |
Field Goal Pct | 45 |
Kick Returns Avg | 57 |
Punt Returns Avg | 6 |
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Glossary
Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.
Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.
Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.
Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.
Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.
Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.
Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.
Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.
Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.
Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)
Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.
Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.
Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.
Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.
Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.
Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.