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2016 college football quarterback stats tell us Mitch Trubisky might be worth the hype

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It’s April, I’m done with my Athlon responsibilities, basketball’s over ... IT’S DATA DUMP TIME.

By Bill C.
30 comments / new
NCAA Football: The Citadel at North Carolina Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Over the coming days, I’ll be sharing as much 2016 college football data as possible, starting with individual stats and then seeing where the wind takes me from there. I’ll be adding it to this Google worksheet. Currently, you can find QB and rusher data in there. It’ll grow.

I wanted to write a little bit about the passer data.

The QB tab in that Google sheet features just about everything I could think to add: general passer stats (completions, attempts, yards, etc.) and key rates (completion, INT, sack), plus rushing data of the basic (rushes, yards) and advanced (opportunity rate, highlight yards per opportunity) variety.

(If a term loses you, by the way check for it here.)

Out of pure curiosity, I wanted to play with the data by creating some rough player types. I set up three categories based on each player’s passes-to-rushes ratio. If it was 7.0 or greater (meaning 7 passes/sacks to every intentional rush), you’re a statue. If it’s between 3.5 and 7, you’re a dual-threat. If it’s below 3.5, you’re a runner.

Of the 240 or so quarterbacks with at least 45 combined rushes and pass attempts*, that breaks them into three groups of about 70-90 each. It doesn’t really do us any good to compare a Washington State quarterback to an Army quarterback, but comparing them in this way allows us to compare apples to apples to some degree.

* 45 combined rushes and passes is a pretty low bar, and it results in a few odd categorizations — if you were a backup and mostly played in blowouts, you might have rushed more than you would have otherwise given more snaps. But let’s go with this. This is my first stab at it.

Once each player was categorized, I decided to play with percentiles within each category. I looked at percentiles for completion rate, yards per completion, interception rate, and sack rate, and for non-statues, I added highlight yards per opportunity and opportunity rate.

So basically, within each player type, I looked at your efficiency, explosiveness, and ability to avoid disaster.

I then added some arbitrary weights to each category, based on what I deemed most important for each category. Call it an educated arbitrariness.

  • Statues: 4x completion rate, 3x yards per completion, 2x INT rate, 1x sack rate
  • Dual-Threats: 4x completion rate, 3x yards per completion, 2x INT rate, 1x sack rate, 1x opportunity rate, 1x highlight yards per opportunity
  • Runners: 4x completion rate, 3x yards per completion, 2x INT rate, 1x sack rate, 2x opportunity rate, 2x highlight yards per opportunity

If you see something that you disagree with in the weights, let me know in comments. If the justification is good enough, I might change it.

Anyway, from there, poof, I created an overall percentile rating for each quarterback based on style and peers. Let’s look at them.

(NOTE: None of this is opponent-adjusted. Again, this is my first stab at such a thing.)

2016 passer stats (statues)

Offense Player Class Comp Rt Yards/Comp Int Rt Sack Rt Yards/Att PERCENTILE
Offense Player Class Comp Rt Yards/Comp Int Rt Sack Rt Yards/Att PERCENTILE
Western Kentucky Mike White JR 67.3% 15.6 1.7% 4.1% 9.79 98%
Toledo Logan Woodside JR 69.1% 14.3 2.2% 3.2% 9.35 98%
Louisiana Tech Ryan Higgins SR 66.3% 14 1.6% 4.4% 8.62 97%
Colorado State Nick Stevens JR 64.2% 15 2.5% 2.0% 9.27 96%
Oklahoma State Mason Rudolph JR 63.4% 14.4 0.9% 6.5% 8.13 94%
Boise State Brett Rypien SO 61.9% 14.9 2.0% 4.6% 8.55 93%
Wisconsin Bart Houston SR 68.1% 13 2.1% 7.2% 7.77 90%
Washington Jake Browning SO 62.1% 14.1 2.3% 6.0% 7.92 88%
Miami-FL Brad Kaaya JR 62.0% 13.5 1.7% 5.6% 7.52 87%
Southern Miss Nick Mullens SR 63.3% 13.5 2.9% 4.7% 7.76 87%
Middle Tennessee Brent Stockstill SO 63.3% 12.3 1.7% 1.9% 7.55 86%
Texas Tech Nic Shimonek JR 65.5% 12.2 1.7% 4.9% 7.13 86%
Memphis Riley Ferguson JR 63.2% 13.2 2.3% 6.9% 7.29 83%
Akron Thomas Woodson JR 60.3% 14.2 2.5% 5.5% 7.8 83%
UCLA Josh Rosen SO 59.3% 14 2.2% 5.3% 7.46 79%
Colorado State Collin Hill FR 58.1% 14.6 1.6% 6.5% 7.4 77%
Washington State Luke Falk JR 70.0% 10.1 1.7% 4.4% 6.45 75%
East Carolina Philip Nelson SR 67.9% 11.1 2.3% 5.2% 6.73 75%
NC State Ryan Finley SO 60.4% 12.6 2.0% 3.6% 7.09 75%
Oregon Justin Herbert FR 63.5% 12 1.6% 6.9% 6.66 74%
LSU Danny Etling JR 59.5% 13.3 1.9% 5.9% 7.07 73%
Michigan Wilton Speight JR 61.6% 12.4 2.1% 5.7% 6.84 73%
Iowa State Jacob Park SO 58.8% 13.5 2.2% 5.0% 7.2 72%
Idaho Matt Linehan JR 61.9% 12.4 2.4% 5.7% 6.92 71%
Arkansas Austin Allen JR 61.1% 14 3.7% 7.8% 7.3 71%
Troy Brandon Silvers JR 63.7% 10.9 2.6% 1.5% 6.68 67%
Tulsa Dane Evans SR 59.5% 12.9 2.8% 4.8% 7.03 66%
California Davis Webb SR 61.6% 11.2 1.9% 2.5% 6.56 65%
South Carolina Jake Bentley FR 65.8% 11.4 2.1% 11.2% 5.99 65%
Eastern Michigan Brogan Roback JR 58.9% 12.3 1.9% 2.6% 6.85 65%
Temple Phillip Walker SR 58.2% 14.3 3.3% 6.6% 7.19 63%
Oregon State Marcus McMaryion SO 59.4% 12.7 2.9% 4.0% 6.96 63%
Missouri Drew Lock SO 54.6% 14.3 2.3% 2.9% 7.4 62%
UTEP Ryan Metz SO 64.7% 10.6 2.0% 6.1% 5.96 62%
South Carolina Perry Orth SR 63.3% 11.6 2.2% 8.2% 6.12 61%
Marshall Chase Litton SO 62.3% 11.3 2.4% 5.8% 6.23 57%
Baylor Zach Smith FR 59.2% 13.2 3.6% 6.2% 7.04 55%
Central Michigan Cooper Rush SR 59.8% 12.7 3.4% 7.4% 6.56 51%
UTSA Jared Johnson SR 54.7% 13.8 1.3% 9.6% 6.05 47%
Indiana Richard Lagow JR 57.8% 13.3 3.9% 6.0% 6.71 46%
East Carolina Gardner Minshew SO 58.9% 11.3 2.0% 4.3% 6.1 46%
USC Max Browne JR 62.4% 8.7 2.2% 6.1% 4.73 42%
Georgia State Conner Manning JR 55.5% 13 3.5% 2.6% 6.81 41%
Massachusetts Andrew Ford SO 60.8% 12 3.8% 8.1% 6.25 40%
Northwestern Clayton Thorson SO 58.6% 11.4 1.9% 7.4% 5.76 36%
Florida Austin Appleby SR 60.8% 11.4 3.3% 8.7% 5.69 34%
UTEP Zack Greenlee JR 50.5% 13.4 2.9% 2.8% 6.26 33%
Cincinnati Hayden Moore SO 57.3% 11.9 2.7% 6.6% 5.96 31%
Cincinnati Gunner Kiel SR 52.0% 12.2 1.6% 2.3% 6 31%
Wisconsin Alex Hornibrook FR 58.6% 11.9 3.9% 6.7% 6.05 29%
Florida International Alex McGough JR 58.4% 11.3 3.8% 4.0% 6.07 28%
Georgia Jacob Eason FR 55.1% 11.9 2.2% 5.4% 5.88 28%
SMU Ben Hicks FR 55.5% 12.5 3.6% 5.2% 6.25 28%
Florida Luke Del Rio SO 56.7% 11.9 4.0% 3.8% 6.11 26%
Illinois Wes Lunt SR 54.7% 10.8 1.3% 5.7% 5.25 19%
Purdue David Blough SO 57.1% 11.4 4.1% 5.1% 5.8 18%
North Texas Alec Morris SR 56.8% 10.7 3.8% 3.1% 5.66 17%
Kansas Montell Cozart JR 58.6% 9.6 4.7% 1.5% 5.47 17%
Virginia Kurt Benkert JR 56.2% 11.2 2.7% 7.1% 5.37 17%
Middle Tennessee John Urzua FR 59.5% 10.5 6.1% 4.4% 5.61 16%
Vanderbilt Kyle Shurmur SO 54.4% 11.8 2.7% 7.9% 5.37 16%
Kentucky Drew Barker SO 50.0% 18.6 13.9% 18.2% 6.36 14%
Bowling Green James Morgan FR 56.1% 11.4 4.6% 5.0% 5.57 13%
Nebraska Ryker Fyfe SR 48.5% 11.6 1.0% 8.3% 4.45 11%
Arizona State Brady White FR 51.0% 10.4 2.0% 2.0% 5.1 11%
UCLA Mike Fafaul SR 52.1% 11.9 4.2% 4.1% 5.64 10%
Illinois Jeff George, Jr. FR 40.4% 12.4 5.3% 3.1% 4.42 8%
Charlotte Kevin Olsen JR 49.7% 9.7 1.7% 4.9% 4.15 7%
Virginia Matt Johns SR 57.1% 8.7 7.9% 4.5% 4.52 5%
San Jose State Josh Love FR 51.7% 12.6 8.3% 14.3% 4.94 5%
Miami-OH Noah Wezensky FR 52.8% 11 3.8% 8.6% 4.52 4%
Georgia Southern Seth Shuman FR 47.2% 10.5 4.2% 1.4% 4.75 4%
Bowling Green James Knapke SR 49.6% 10.8 7.6% 6.3% 4.57 1%
  • Top 5 statues by completion rate: Washington State’s Luke Falk (98th percentile), Toledo’s Logan Woodside (97th), Wisconsin’s Bart Houston (95th), ECU’s Philip Nelson (95th), WKU’s Mike White (94th).
  • Top 5 statues by yards per completion: Kentucky’s Drew Barker (100th percentile), WKU’s Mike White (98th), Colorado State’s Nick Stevens (95th), Boise State’s Brett Rypien (94th), Colorado State’s Collin Hill (92nd).
  • Top 5 statues by INT rate: OSU’s Mason Rudolph (86th percentile), Nebraska’s Ryker Fyfe (85th), Illinois’ Wes Lunt (81st), UTSA’s Jared Johnson (81st), Colorado State’s Collin Hill (78th)
  • Top 5 statues by sack rate: Georgia Southern’s Seth Shuman (94th percentile), Troy’s Brandon Silvers (93rd), Kansas’ Montell Cozart (93rd), MTSU’s Brent Stockstill (91st), Colorado State’s Nick Stevens (90th).
  • TOP 5 POWER CONFERENCE STATUES BY OVERALL PERCENTILE: OSU’s Mason Rudolph (94th), Wisconsin’s Bart Houston! (90th), Washington’s Jake Browning (88th), Miami’s Brad Kaaya (87th), Texas Tech’s Nic Shimonek (86th).
NCAA Football: Alamo Bowl-Oklahoma State vs Colorado
Mason Rudolph
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The strange name here is obviously Bart Houston's. He isn't particularly synonymous with elite-level quarterbacking. Small samples played a role in this, but honestly ... he had a pretty damn good year, especially after the shaky start. No, really! He finished with a 149.7 passer rating!

Okay, fine, I'll just say that it was a samples thing. Same with Nic Shimonek, who threw just 58 passes. But Rudolph was awesome.

2016 passer stats (dual-threat)

Offense Player Class Comp Rt Yards/Comp Int Rt Sack Rt OppRate Hlt/Opp PERCENTILE
Offense Player Class Comp Rt Yards/Comp Int Rt Sack Rt OppRate Hlt/Opp PERCENTILE
Oklahoma Baker Mayfield JR 70.9% 15.6 2.2% 4.8% 44.3% 3.26 97%
Western Michigan Zach Terrell SR 69.8% 13.4 1.1% 4.1% 48.4% 3.26 97%
Louisiana Tech J'mar Smith FR 69.8% 13.7 2.3% 8.5% 61.5% 5.03 96%
North Carolina Mitch Trubisky JR 68.0% 12.3 1.3% 4.3% 52.1% 5.00 95%
Texas Tech Patrick Mahomes II JR 65.7% 13 1.7% 4.4% 42.3% 3.92 93%
Pittsburgh Nathan Peterman SR 60.5% 15.4 2.3% 3.2% 43.5% 5.50 92%
Auburn Sean White SO 63.9% 12.6 1.4% 6.7% 57.5% 4.89 92%
USC Sam Darnold FR 67.2% 12.5 2.5% 1.6% 50.0% 3.21 92%
Old Dominion David Washington SR 59.4% 14 1.5% 4.2% 57.7% 4.16 92%
Ole Miss Chad Kelly SR 62.5% 13.5 2.4% 4.7% 53.8% 4.51 91%
Florida State Deondre Francois FR 58.8% 14.3 1.8% 7.8% 43.2% 7.52 85%
West Virginia Skyler Howard SR 61.1% 13.5 2.5% 5.8% 47.0% 4.47 85%
Hawaii Dru Brown SO 62.4% 11.9 2.1% 5.1% 47.1% 6.83 83%
Clemson Deshaun Watson JR 67.0% 11.8 2.9% 2.9% 41.9% 3.54 81%
Notre Dame DeShone Kizer JR 58.7% 13.8 2.5% 6.5% 48.1% 5.12 79%
Appalachian State Taylor Lamb JR 60.6% 11.6 2.5% 3.8% 55.7% 7.25 78%
Texas A&M Jake Hubenak JR 58.7% 14.5 1.9% 8.0% 40.9% 3.78 77%
Syracuse Eric Dungey SO 64.8% 11.6 2.0% 5.8% 38.8% 3.73 77%
TCU Kenny Hill JR 61.1% 11.9 3.0% 6.0% 58.8% 6.09 75%
San Diego State Christian Chapman SO 61.0% 13 2.4% 10.0% 55.8% 2.66 75%
Arkansas State Justice Hansen SO 57.9% 13.8 2.4% 5.3% 33.3% 5.16 71%
Northern Illinois Drew Hare SR 62.7% 11.5 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.00 69%
Florida Atlantic Jason Driskel SO 61.2% 12.1 3.4% 6.3% 65.5% 3.32 68%
Baylor Seth Russell SR 54.7% 14 2.9% 4.5% 53.1% 6.05 67%
Maryland Perry Hills SR 61.9% 12 2.0% 14.7% 50.9% 4.14 67%
Duke Daniel Jones FR 62.8% 10.5 2.1% 6.3% 57.1% 3.56 67%
Nevada Tyler Stewart SR 63.2% 10.6 1.7% 8.4% 54.1% 3.36 65%
Texas Shane Buechele FR 60.4% 12.5 2.8% 7.3% 45.6% 3.09 64%
Arizona State Manny Wilkins SO 63.3% 11.8 2.9% 9.9% 50.0% 2.84 63%
Kentucky Stephen Johnson JR 54.7% 14 2.3% 7.0% 45.5% 5.81 63%
South Alabama Dallas Davis SO 56.7% 13.7 3.4% 6.4% 50.7% 5.40 63%
Nevada Ty Gangi SO 57.6% 13.1 3.5% 2.8% 40.0% 6.03 62%
UTSA Dalton Sturm JR 56.5% 12.8 2.0% 10.5% 54.7% 5.72 60%
Texas A&M Trevor Knight SR 53.3% 12.6 1.9% 3.2% 47.3% 9.05 59%
New Mexico Austin Apodaca SR 54.1% 12.3 2.0% 5.8% 52.0% 9.83 58%
Utah State Kent Myers JR 58.6% 11.3 2.2% 6.9% 49.4% 6.87 57%
Rice Tyler Stehling SR 61.4% 10.6 2.2% 7.9% 50.7% 4.43 55%
Stanford Keller Chryst JR 56.6% 11.8 1.5% 7.5% 40.0% 10.32 55%
Eastern Michigan Todd Porter JR 61.3% 12.2 6.3% 2.1% 47.4% 3.60 55%
Ball State Riley Neal SO 61.4% 10.5 3.0% 4.6% 54.6% 3.76 55%
Miami-OH Billy Bahl SO 55.2% 16.7 3.2% 13.2% 57.1% 2.79 53%
Florida International Christian Alexander FR 58.8% 10.8 0.0% 8.1% 44.4% 4.53 53%
Michigan State Tyler O'Connor SR 58.8% 12.8 3.4% 7.4% 47.6% 2.14 52%
South Alabama Cole Garvin SO 54.7% 13.2 1.6% 9.9% 54.5% 2.18 51%
Houston Kyle Postma JR 63.0% 7.2 4.3% 6.1% 69.2% 9.71 51%
San Jose State Kenny Potter SR 59.4% 12.4 3.2% 11.5% 45.9% 4.37 48%
Michigan John O'Korn SR 58.8% 8.7 0.0% 5.6% 10.0% 22.90 46%
Ole Miss Shea Patterson FR 54.5% 12.2 2.3% 6.4% 57.6% 4.44 46%
Utah Troy Williams JR 53.1% 13.3 2.1% 6.3% 44.7% 3.62 46%
Buffalo Grant Rohach SR 54.8% 13.7 2.4% 12.5% 43.5% 5.40 46%
Syracuse Zack Mahoney JR 60.7% 11.5 3.0% 10.0% 44.8% 2.62 42%
North Texas Mason Fine FR 59.4% 10.1 1.9% 12.1% 46.6% 6.83 39%
Kent State George Bollas SO 46.6% 14.9 3.4% 7.9% 44.4% 12.41 38%
Cincinnati Ross Trail FR 65.7% 10.7 8.6% 6.7% 42.9% 2.08 37%
Kansas Carter Stanley FR 59.6% 10.3 3.8% 4.9% 37.5% 9.39 37%
Central Florida McKenzie Milton FR 57.7% 10.2 2.1% 6.9% 46.7% 4.64 34%
Arizona Anu Solomon JR 59.4% 12.2 3.1% 15.8% 38.5% 2.14 34%
Ohio Greg Windham SR 54.2% 11.8 2.7% 2.9% 45.3% 4.33 33%
New Mexico State Tyler Rogers SR 55.4% 11.6 3.0% 7.1% 52.7% 3.95 31%
Texas State Tyler Jones SR 64.4% 9.9 4.1% 9.7% 32.1% 5.24 31%
Auburn Jeremy Johnson SR 57.4% 11.6 4.3% 6.0% 25.0% 9.40 29%
Hawaii Ikaika Woolsey SR 48.9% 14.6 6.7% 6.3% 42.9% 6.53 24%
Stanford Ryan Burns SR 61.1% 11.3 4.2% 12.1% 32.4% 3.45 23%
Fresno State Chason Virgil FR 51.6% 12.2 3.1% 6.1% 38.6% 6.85 22%
Kansas Ryan Willis SO 61.5% 11.3 6.0% 12.0% 31.8% 4.76 21%
Maryland Max Bortenschlager FR 48.5% 13.1 0.0% 15.4% 16.7% 3.90 21%
Maryland Caleb Rowe SR 51.4% 15.6 8.1% 7.5% 16.7% 4.40 17%
Buffalo Tyree Jackson FR 53.1% 10.7 2.9% 3.4% 47.7% 3.52 17%
Massachusetts Ross Comis SO 44.4% 13.2 1.6% 16.0% 37.5% 2.08 15%
Iowa C.J. Beathard SR 56.5% 11.3 3.3% 9.1% 34.0% 3.04 15%
Arizona State Dillon Sterling-Cole FR 50.9% 13.9 7.3% 9.8% 44.4% 2.38 11%
Rutgers Giovanni Rescigno SO 52.8% 10.3 3.1% 9.9% 51.2% 4.76 9%
Oregon State Darell Garretson JR 50.0% 8.5 2.7% 7.6% 69.0% 5.65 8%
Rice Jackson Tyner FR 47.8% 9.9 1.5% 4.3% 41.2% 1.66 8%
Rutgers Chris Laviano JR 48.3% 10.7 1.4% 7.6% 33.3% 3.50 8%
TCU Foster Sawyer SO 47.3% 10.7 1.8% 5.2% 27.3% 3.10 7%
Oregon State Conor Blount FR 54.3% 9.6 5.7% 14.6% 37.5% 1.17 1%
Marshall Garet Morrell FR 49.3% 8.8 4.5% 6.9% 30.8% 4.33 1%
Florida Atlantic Daniel Parr FR 41.7% 7.1 5.6% 7.7% 57.1% 1.68 1%
Connecticut Donovan Williams FR 47.4% 8.3 6.6% 12.6% 25.0% 11.80 0%
  • Top 5 dual-threats by completion rate: OU’s Baker Mayfield (98th percentile), Louisiana Tech’s J’mar Smith (97th), WMU’s Zach Terrell (97th), UNC’s Mitch Trubisky (95th), USC’s Sam Darnold (95th).
  • Top 5 dual-threats by yards per completion: Miami (Ohio)’s Billy Bahl (99th percentile), OU’s Baker Mayfield (97th), Maryland’s Caleb Rowe (97th), Pitt’s Nathan Peterman (96th), Kent State’s George Bollas (93rd).
  • Top 5 dual-threats by INT rate: Maryland’s Max Bortenschlager (96th percentile), NIU’s Drew Hare (96th), FIU’s Christian Alexander (96th), Michigan’s John O’Korn (96th), WMU’s Zach Terrell (86th).
  • Top 5 dual-threats by sack rate: USC’s Sam Darnold (96th percentile), EMU’s Todd Porter (95th), Nevada’s Ty Gangi (92nd), Clemson’s Deshaun Watson (91st), Ohio’s Greg Windham (91st).
  • Top 5 dual-threats by opportunity rate: Houston’s Kyle Postma (98th percentile), Oregon State’s Darell Garretson (98th), FAU’s Jason Driskel (96th), Louisiana Tech’s J’mar Smith (92nd), TCU’s Kenny Hill (88th).
  • Top 5 dual-threats by highlight yards: Michigan’s John O’Korn (100th percentile), Kent State’s George Bollas (99th), UConn’s Donovan Williams (99th), Stanford’s Keller Chryst (96th), New Mexico’s Austin Apodaca (94th).
  • TOP 5 POWER CONFERENCE DUAL-THREATS BY OVERALL PERCENTILE: Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield (97th percentile), UNC’s Mitch Trubisky (95th), Texas Tech’s Pat Mahomes II (93rd), Pitt’s Nathan Peterman (92nd), USC’s Sam Darnold (92nd).

Two 2017 Heisman favorites (or two of them, at least), and three big 2017 NFL Draft prospects there.

NCAA Football: Sugar Bowl-Auburn vs Oklahoma
Baker Mayfield
Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

Actually, the most interesting name here is one that wasn’t in that overall P5 top five: Deshaun Watson, who ended up in the 81st percentile, 10th among P5 dual-threats.

Opponent adjustments would have obviously been very kind to Watson (Clemson did play eight teams in the S&P+ top 25, after all), so keep that in mind. I’m assuming he’d have been in the top five here had that been taken into account. (And as soon as I figure out a decent way to do that, I will.)

But I guess if you’re trying to poke holes in Watson’s résumé — and we know that draft scouts love to do just that — you could note that Watson was pretty drastically below-average in quite a few categories.

Whereas Trubisky was at the 73rd percentile or higher in four of six categories and wasn’t below the 50th in any, Watson was 45th percentile in yards per completion, 49th in interception rate, 41st in opportunity rate, and 32nd in highlight yardage. He was really good at scrambling for necessary third-down yardage, but ... maybe that’s a thing? Maybe he’s not a great enough runner to scramble the same way in the pros?

I’m not sure I believe any of that, but as a thought experiment, it might have some merit.

(Gun to my head, I’m still picking Watson over Trubisky, though.)

2016 passer stats (runners)

Offense Player Class Comp Rt Yards/Comp Int Rt Sack Rt OppRate Hlt/Opp PERCENTILE
Offense Player Class Comp Rt Yards/Comp Int Rt Sack Rt OppRate Hlt/Opp PERCENTILE
Air Force Arion Worthman SO 59.0% 23.7 5.1% 15.2% 46.3% 4.80 79%
Air Force Nate Romine SR 41.7% 26.8 3.7% 8.5% 36.5% 4.19 24%
Akron Tra'Von Chapman JR 46.2% 13 4.3% 5.6% 41.5% 7.90 33%
Alabama Jalen Hurts FR 62.8% 11.6 2.4% 4.7% 45.3% 7.13 88%
Arizona Brandon Dawkins SO 53.6% 13.9 3.3% 6.7% 51.7% 8.86 83%
Arizona Khalil Tate FR 40.0% 13.5 6.7% 4.3% 44.7% 4.88 10%
Arkansas State Chad Voytik SR 56.1% 11.3 1.8% 13.6% 22.9% 3.81 18%
Army Chris Carter SO 39.1% 19.6 4.3% 11.5% 50.0% 5.89 41%
Army Ahmad Bradshaw JR 44.0% 17.6 9.9% 6.2% 44.1% 4.22 17%
Auburn John Franklin III JR 53.8% 14.6 0.0% 3.7% 55.6% 10.40 96%
Boston College Patrick Towles SR 50.5% 12.5 2.6% 9.0% 37.5% 5.38 26%
BYU Taysom Hill SR 59.7% 10.5 3.0% 5.6% 57.8% 3.59 68%
Central Florida Justin Holman SR 43.4% 14.2 2.4% 9.8% 37.9% 7.67 29%
Charlotte Hasaan Klugh SO 53.6% 11.3 1.3% 6.3% 50.0% 5.85 66%
Colorado Steven Montez FR 59.3% 13 3.6% 5.4% 50.0% 4.93 76%
Colorado Sefo Liufau SR 62.7% 11.8 1.9% 6.7% 38.5% 3.07 56%
Colorado State Faton Bauta SR 41.4% 9.5 0.0% 0.0% 47.4% 5.27 27%
Connecticut Bryant Shirreffs JR 58.7% 12.1 2.1% 7.5% 28.9% 3.51 35%
Florida International Maurice Alexander FR 58.6% 12 6.9% 15.5% 51.3% 3.55 32%
Fresno State Zach Kline SR 53.2% 12.5 2.5% 11.2% 44.7% 4.16 33%
Georgia Southern Kevin Ellison SR 62.3% 13.2 2.8% 3.6% 38.5% 6.33 82%
Georgia Southern Favian Upshaw SR 54.8% 13.3 2.4% 5.6% 53.1% 4.86 73%
Georgia State Aaron Winchester FR 53.3% 11.3 4.4% 13.5% 47.6% 4.78 25%
Georgia Tech Justin Thomas SR 53.4% 19.7 1.4% 8.1% 35.2% 9.74 86%
Georgia Tech Matthew Jordan SO 33.3% 37 11.1% 10.0% 29.7% 4.43 5%
Houston Greg Ward Jr. SR 68.0% 11.2 2.8% 6.6% 37.8% 4.60 65%
Illinois Chayce Crouch SO 56.3% 13.8 3.1% 8.6% 57.7% 5.34 78%
Indiana Zander Diamont JR 60.0% 21.3 6.7% 6.3% 44.7% 8.35 93%
Iowa State Joel Lanning JR 58.6% 13 1.8% 10.6% 41.6% 6.18 70%
Kansas State Jesse Ertz JR 57.6% 11.5 1.5% 7.4% 48.8% 7.43 83%
Kansas State Joe Hubener SR 56.4% 12.5 2.6% 7.1% 27.8% 2.68 25%
Kent State Mylik Mitchell FR 56.5% 9.3 1.4% 14.8% 41.7% 5.13 34%
Kent State Nick Holley JR 49.3% 12.1 2.1% 8.8% 43.1% 5.59 32%
Louisville Lamar Jackson SO 56.2% 15.4 2.2% 10.1% 59.3% 7.85 93%
Maryland Tyrrell Pigrome FR 52.1% 8.7 2.8% 7.8% 46.4% 5.11 27%
Memphis Jason Stewart SR 65.6% 10.9 0.0% 3.0% 24.0% 3.52 61%
Miami-OH Gus Ragland SO 64.2% 13.4 0.6% 8.7% 40.3% 3.18 72%
Michigan State Brian Lewerke FR 54.4% 12.3 1.8% 5.0% 72.2% 5.82 82%
Michigan State Damion Terry JR 47.8% 11.5 2.2% 6.1% 52.2% 2.06 24%
Minnesota Mitch Leidner SR 56.4% 12.5 3.9% 5.0% 49.5% 2.93 51%
Mississippi State Damian Williams JR 66.0% 8.8 0.0% 6.0% 56.3% 5.44 90%
Mississippi State Nick Fitzgerald SO 54.3% 12.4 2.8% 3.7% 49.2% 8.69 82%
Missouri Marvin Zanders SO 83.3% 11.4 0.0% 0.0% 51.4% 4.20 95%
Navy Will Worth SR 61.5% 19.4 2.6% 10.7% 36.3% 5.04 83%
Navy Zach Abey SO 57.1% 17.6 11.4% 16.7% 35.4% 9.13 57%
NC State Jalan McClendon SO 53.3% 11 13.3% 6.3% 32.4% 4.90 8%
Nebraska Tommy Armstrong Jr. SR 51.4% 14.4 2.7% 2.0% 36.4% 6.12 54%
New Mexico Lamar Jordan JR 53.3% 17 5.3% 7.4% 47.7% 8.61 80%
New Mexico State Conner Cramer JR 43.6% 11.1 7.7% 7.1% 52.6% 11.97 25%
Northern Illinois Anthony Maddie SR 60.0% 11.6 2.9% 1.7% 49.4% 6.29 85%
Northern Illinois Daniel Santacaterina FR 47.4% 20.1 5.3% 2.6% 44.0% 2.76 38%
Northern Illinois Ryan Graham SO 55.9% 9.6 4.7% 0.8% 34.9% 4.48 22%
Ohio Quinton Maxwell FR 55.3% 14 2.5% 5.8% 45.8% 4.40 64%
Ohio State J.T. Barrett JR 61.5% 11 1.8% 6.7% 46.1% 4.02 67%
Ole Miss Jason Pellerin FR 50.0% 9.5 13.6% 4.3% 32.1% 1.61 1%
Oregon Dakota Prukop 65.7% 12.9 1.4% 6.5% 45.7% 3.38 81%
Penn State Trace McSorley SO 57.9% 16.1 2.1% 5.6% 39.8% 3.51 70%
Rutgers Tylin Oden FR 12.5% 2 0.0% 11.1% 38.9% 3.43 1%
South Carolina Brandon McIlwain FR 52.5% 9.7 0.8% 7.1% 41.8% 2.31 21%
South Florida Quinton Flowers JR 62.5% 13.6 2.1% 3.8% 56.8% 7.91 98%
Southern Miss Keon Howard FR 44.0% 16.6 8.0% 16.7% 48.6% 5.71 20%
Southern Miss Parker Adamson JR 48.7% 10.2 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 1.90 13%
Tennessee Joshua Dobbs SR 63.0% 13.1 3.4% 6.5% 50.0% 8.97 94%
Texas Tyrone Swoopes SR 55.6% 13.2 11.1% 10.0% 28.3% 2.67 7%
Texas State Connor White SO 52.3% 9.7 4.5% 12.0% 30.4% 10.64 18%
Tulane Johnathan Brantley FR 38.1% 6.4 0.0% 12.5% 41.9% 7.25 9%
Tulane Glen Cuiellette SO 42.6% 13 3.4% 7.1% 29.4% 3.53 4%
UL-Lafayette Anthony Jennings SR 59.8% 11.3 4.0% 10.0% 46.3% 4.38 48%
UL-Monroe Garrett Smith SO 57.5% 12 3.9% 3.2% 55.6% 4.54 71%
UL-Monroe Caleb Evans FR 52.8% 11 4.2% 3.4% 31.9% 3.31 12%
UL-Monroe Will Collins FR 47.5% 12.3 7.5% 16.7% 41.9% 2.85 2%
UNLV Kurt Palandech JR 50.5% 13.2 2.1% 4.9% 60.5% 7.53 81%
UNLV Dalton Sneed FR 44.3% 16.2 2.3% 3.3% 51.9% 7.03 73%
UNLV Johnny Stanton JR 46.7% 13.5 5.6% 1.8% 55.3% 4.46 34%
UTEP Kavika Johnson SO 57.1% 10.9 4.8% 22.2% 32.0% 4.88 15%
Virginia Tech Jerod Evans JR 63.5% 13.3 1.9% 7.0% 47.7% 4.95 87%
Wake Forest John Wolford JR 55.5% 10.7 3.3% 9.9% 54.6% 6.20 61%
Wyoming Josh Allen SO 56.0% 15.3 4.0% 6.5% 50.0% 4.99 75%
  • Top 5 runners by completion rate: Missouri’s Marvin Zanders (100th percentile), Houston’s Greg Ward Jr. (94th), Mississippi State’s Damian Williams (91st), Oregon’s Dakota Prukop (90th), Memphis’ Jason Stewart (90th).
  • Top 5 runners by yards per completion: Georgia Tech’s Matthew Jordan (100th), Air Force’s Nate Romine (100th), Air Force’s Arion Worthman (99th), Indiana’s Zander Diamont (96th), NIU’s Daniel Santacaterina (93rd).
  • Top 5 runners by INT rate: A bunch of guys had zero INTs because of few attempts.
  • Top 5 runners by sack rate: Missouri’s Marvin Zanders (96th), Southern Miss’ Parker Adamson (96th), Colorado State’s Faton Bauta (96th), NIU’s Ryan Graham (94th), NIU’s Anthony Maddie (91st).
  • Top 5 runners by opportunity rate: Michigan State’s Brian Lewerke (100th), UNLV’s Kurt Palandech (96th), Louisville’s Lamar Jackson (95th), BYU’s Taysom Hill, Illinois’ Chayce Crouch.
  • Top 5 runners by highlight yards: NMSU’s Conner Cramer (100th), Texas State’s Connor White (99th), Auburn’s John Franklin III (99th), Georgia Tech’s Justin Thomas (98th), Navy’s Zach Abey (96th).
  • TOP 5 POWER CONFERENCE RUNNERS BY OVERALL PERCENTILE (100+ rushes and passes*): Tennessee’s Joshua Dobbs (94th percentile), Louisville’s Lamar Jackson (93rd), Alabama’s Jalen Hurts (88th), Virginia Tech’s Jerod Evans (87th), Georgia Tech’s Justin Thomas (86th).

* I had to set a higher bar for this one, otherwise low-sample guys dominated.

NCAA Football: Music City Bowl-Tennessee vs Nebraska
Joshua Dobbs
Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Over the course of two years, I went from screaming that Joshua Dobbs was painfully overrated to screaming that he was painfully underrated. The way he finished his senior season was absolutely magnificent ... even if everybody had stopped paying attention.

I’m not going to pretend I’d take Dobbs over Lamar Jackson or anything, but ... well ... how much trouble will I get in for saying that Bama probably wins the national title with Dobbs at QB? A little or a lot?

So based on percentiles for each player type, here’s the overall list of top 30 FBS quarterbacks (with 100+ rushes/passes). 2017 returnees in bold.

  1. Mike White, WKU (statue, 98th percentile)
  2. Quinton Flowers, USF (runner, 98th percentile)
  3. Logan Woodside, Toledo (statue, 98th percentile)
  4. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma (dual-threat, 97th percentile)
  5. Zach Terrell, WMU (dual-threat, 97th percentile)
  6. Ryan Higgins, Louisiana Tech (statue, 97th percentile)
  7. Nick Stevens, Colorado State (statue, 96th percentile)
  8. Mitch Trubisky, UNC (dual-threat, 95th percentile)
  9. Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State (statue, 94th percentile)
  10. Joshua Dobbs, Tennessee (runner, 94th percentile)
  11. Lamar Jackson, Louisville (runner, 93rd percentile)
  12. Patrick Mahomes II, Texas Tech (dual-threat, 93rd percentile)
  13. Brett Rypien, Boise State (statue, 93rd percentile)
  14. Nathan Peterman, Pitt (dual-threat, 92nd percentile)
  15. Sam Darnold, USC (dual-threat, 92nd percentile)
  16. Sean White, Auburn (dual-threat, 92nd percentile)
  17. David Washington, Old Dominion (dual-threat, 92nd percentile)
  18. Chad Kelly, Ole Miss (dual-threat, 91st percentile)
  19. Bart Houston, Wisconsin (statue, 90th percentile)
  20. Jalen Hurts, Alabama (runner, 88th percentile)
  21. Jake Browning, Washington (statue, 88th percentile)
  22. Brad Kaaya, Miami (statue, 87th percentile)
  23. Nick Mullens, Southern Miss (statue, 87th percentile)
  24. Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech (runner, 87th percentile)
  25. Justin Thomas, Georgia Tech (runner, 86th percentile)
  26. Brent Stockstill, MTSU (statue, 86th percentile)
  27. Deondre Francois, Florida State (dual-threat, 85th percentile)
  28. Anthony Maddie, NIU (runner, 85th percentile)
  29. Skyler Howard, WVU (dual-threat, 85th percentile)
  30. Dru Brown, Hawaii (dual-threat, 83rd percentile)
NCAA Football: Boca Raton Bowl-Memphis vs Western Kentucky
Mike White
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

And because I’m at least slightly mean, here’s your bottom 10 (again, 100+ rushes and passes)

178. Donovan Williams, UConn (dual-threat, zero percentile)
177. James Knapke, BGSU (statue, first percentile)
176. Glen Cuiellette, Tulane (runner, fourth percentile)
175. Kevin Olsen, Charlotte (statue, seventh percentile)
174. Chris Laviano, Rutgers (dual-threat, eighth percentile)
173. Jeff George Jr., Illinois (statue, eighth percentile)
172. Darell Garretson, Oregon State (dual-threat, eighth percentile)
171. Giovanni Rescigno, Rutgers (dual-threat, ninth percentile)
170. Mike Fafaul, UCLA (statue, 10th percentile)
169. Ryker Fyfe, Nebraska (statue, 11th percentile)

At least Williams and George were freshmen, I guess.

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