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Over the coming days, I’ll be sharing as much 2016 college football data as possible, starting with individual stats and then seeing where the wind takes me from there. I’ll be adding it to this Google worksheet. Currently, you can find QB and rusher data in there. It’ll grow.
I wanted to write a little bit about the passer data.
The QB tab in that Google sheet features just about everything I could think to add: general passer stats (completions, attempts, yards, etc.) and key rates (completion, INT, sack), plus rushing data of the basic (rushes, yards) and advanced (opportunity rate, highlight yards per opportunity) variety.
(If a term loses you, by the way check for it here.)
Out of pure curiosity, I wanted to play with the data by creating some rough player types. I set up three categories based on each player’s passes-to-rushes ratio. If it was 7.0 or greater (meaning 7 passes/sacks to every intentional rush), you’re a statue. If it’s between 3.5 and 7, you’re a dual-threat. If it’s below 3.5, you’re a runner.
Of the 240 or so quarterbacks with at least 45 combined rushes and pass attempts*, that breaks them into three groups of about 70-90 each. It doesn’t really do us any good to compare a Washington State quarterback to an Army quarterback, but comparing them in this way allows us to compare apples to apples to some degree.
* 45 combined rushes and passes is a pretty low bar, and it results in a few odd categorizations — if you were a backup and mostly played in blowouts, you might have rushed more than you would have otherwise given more snaps. But let’s go with this. This is my first stab at it.
Once each player was categorized, I decided to play with percentiles within each category. I looked at percentiles for completion rate, yards per completion, interception rate, and sack rate, and for non-statues, I added highlight yards per opportunity and opportunity rate.
So basically, within each player type, I looked at your efficiency, explosiveness, and ability to avoid disaster.
I then added some arbitrary weights to each category, based on what I deemed most important for each category. Call it an educated arbitrariness.
- Statues: 4x completion rate, 3x yards per completion, 2x INT rate, 1x sack rate
- Dual-Threats: 4x completion rate, 3x yards per completion, 2x INT rate, 1x sack rate, 1x opportunity rate, 1x highlight yards per opportunity
- Runners: 4x completion rate, 3x yards per completion, 2x INT rate, 1x sack rate, 2x opportunity rate, 2x highlight yards per opportunity
If you see something that you disagree with in the weights, let me know in comments. If the justification is good enough, I might change it.
Anyway, from there, poof, I created an overall percentile rating for each quarterback based on style and peers. Let’s look at them.
(NOTE: None of this is opponent-adjusted. Again, this is my first stab at such a thing.)
2016 passer stats (statues)
Offense | Player | Class | Comp Rt | Yards/Comp | Int Rt | Sack Rt | Yards/Att | PERCENTILE |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Offense | Player | Class | Comp Rt | Yards/Comp | Int Rt | Sack Rt | Yards/Att | PERCENTILE |
Western Kentucky | Mike White | JR | 67.3% | 15.6 | 1.7% | 4.1% | 9.79 | 98% |
Toledo | Logan Woodside | JR | 69.1% | 14.3 | 2.2% | 3.2% | 9.35 | 98% |
Louisiana Tech | Ryan Higgins | SR | 66.3% | 14 | 1.6% | 4.4% | 8.62 | 97% |
Colorado State | Nick Stevens | JR | 64.2% | 15 | 2.5% | 2.0% | 9.27 | 96% |
Oklahoma State | Mason Rudolph | JR | 63.4% | 14.4 | 0.9% | 6.5% | 8.13 | 94% |
Boise State | Brett Rypien | SO | 61.9% | 14.9 | 2.0% | 4.6% | 8.55 | 93% |
Wisconsin | Bart Houston | SR | 68.1% | 13 | 2.1% | 7.2% | 7.77 | 90% |
Washington | Jake Browning | SO | 62.1% | 14.1 | 2.3% | 6.0% | 7.92 | 88% |
Miami-FL | Brad Kaaya | JR | 62.0% | 13.5 | 1.7% | 5.6% | 7.52 | 87% |
Southern Miss | Nick Mullens | SR | 63.3% | 13.5 | 2.9% | 4.7% | 7.76 | 87% |
Middle Tennessee | Brent Stockstill | SO | 63.3% | 12.3 | 1.7% | 1.9% | 7.55 | 86% |
Texas Tech | Nic Shimonek | JR | 65.5% | 12.2 | 1.7% | 4.9% | 7.13 | 86% |
Memphis | Riley Ferguson | JR | 63.2% | 13.2 | 2.3% | 6.9% | 7.29 | 83% |
Akron | Thomas Woodson | JR | 60.3% | 14.2 | 2.5% | 5.5% | 7.8 | 83% |
UCLA | Josh Rosen | SO | 59.3% | 14 | 2.2% | 5.3% | 7.46 | 79% |
Colorado State | Collin Hill | FR | 58.1% | 14.6 | 1.6% | 6.5% | 7.4 | 77% |
Washington State | Luke Falk | JR | 70.0% | 10.1 | 1.7% | 4.4% | 6.45 | 75% |
East Carolina | Philip Nelson | SR | 67.9% | 11.1 | 2.3% | 5.2% | 6.73 | 75% |
NC State | Ryan Finley | SO | 60.4% | 12.6 | 2.0% | 3.6% | 7.09 | 75% |
Oregon | Justin Herbert | FR | 63.5% | 12 | 1.6% | 6.9% | 6.66 | 74% |
LSU | Danny Etling | JR | 59.5% | 13.3 | 1.9% | 5.9% | 7.07 | 73% |
Michigan | Wilton Speight | JR | 61.6% | 12.4 | 2.1% | 5.7% | 6.84 | 73% |
Iowa State | Jacob Park | SO | 58.8% | 13.5 | 2.2% | 5.0% | 7.2 | 72% |
Idaho | Matt Linehan | JR | 61.9% | 12.4 | 2.4% | 5.7% | 6.92 | 71% |
Arkansas | Austin Allen | JR | 61.1% | 14 | 3.7% | 7.8% | 7.3 | 71% |
Troy | Brandon Silvers | JR | 63.7% | 10.9 | 2.6% | 1.5% | 6.68 | 67% |
Tulsa | Dane Evans | SR | 59.5% | 12.9 | 2.8% | 4.8% | 7.03 | 66% |
California | Davis Webb | SR | 61.6% | 11.2 | 1.9% | 2.5% | 6.56 | 65% |
South Carolina | Jake Bentley | FR | 65.8% | 11.4 | 2.1% | 11.2% | 5.99 | 65% |
Eastern Michigan | Brogan Roback | JR | 58.9% | 12.3 | 1.9% | 2.6% | 6.85 | 65% |
Temple | Phillip Walker | SR | 58.2% | 14.3 | 3.3% | 6.6% | 7.19 | 63% |
Oregon State | Marcus McMaryion | SO | 59.4% | 12.7 | 2.9% | 4.0% | 6.96 | 63% |
Missouri | Drew Lock | SO | 54.6% | 14.3 | 2.3% | 2.9% | 7.4 | 62% |
UTEP | Ryan Metz | SO | 64.7% | 10.6 | 2.0% | 6.1% | 5.96 | 62% |
South Carolina | Perry Orth | SR | 63.3% | 11.6 | 2.2% | 8.2% | 6.12 | 61% |
Marshall | Chase Litton | SO | 62.3% | 11.3 | 2.4% | 5.8% | 6.23 | 57% |
Baylor | Zach Smith | FR | 59.2% | 13.2 | 3.6% | 6.2% | 7.04 | 55% |
Central Michigan | Cooper Rush | SR | 59.8% | 12.7 | 3.4% | 7.4% | 6.56 | 51% |
UTSA | Jared Johnson | SR | 54.7% | 13.8 | 1.3% | 9.6% | 6.05 | 47% |
Indiana | Richard Lagow | JR | 57.8% | 13.3 | 3.9% | 6.0% | 6.71 | 46% |
East Carolina | Gardner Minshew | SO | 58.9% | 11.3 | 2.0% | 4.3% | 6.1 | 46% |
USC | Max Browne | JR | 62.4% | 8.7 | 2.2% | 6.1% | 4.73 | 42% |
Georgia State | Conner Manning | JR | 55.5% | 13 | 3.5% | 2.6% | 6.81 | 41% |
Massachusetts | Andrew Ford | SO | 60.8% | 12 | 3.8% | 8.1% | 6.25 | 40% |
Northwestern | Clayton Thorson | SO | 58.6% | 11.4 | 1.9% | 7.4% | 5.76 | 36% |
Florida | Austin Appleby | SR | 60.8% | 11.4 | 3.3% | 8.7% | 5.69 | 34% |
UTEP | Zack Greenlee | JR | 50.5% | 13.4 | 2.9% | 2.8% | 6.26 | 33% |
Cincinnati | Hayden Moore | SO | 57.3% | 11.9 | 2.7% | 6.6% | 5.96 | 31% |
Cincinnati | Gunner Kiel | SR | 52.0% | 12.2 | 1.6% | 2.3% | 6 | 31% |
Wisconsin | Alex Hornibrook | FR | 58.6% | 11.9 | 3.9% | 6.7% | 6.05 | 29% |
Florida International | Alex McGough | JR | 58.4% | 11.3 | 3.8% | 4.0% | 6.07 | 28% |
Georgia | Jacob Eason | FR | 55.1% | 11.9 | 2.2% | 5.4% | 5.88 | 28% |
SMU | Ben Hicks | FR | 55.5% | 12.5 | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.25 | 28% |
Florida | Luke Del Rio | SO | 56.7% | 11.9 | 4.0% | 3.8% | 6.11 | 26% |
Illinois | Wes Lunt | SR | 54.7% | 10.8 | 1.3% | 5.7% | 5.25 | 19% |
Purdue | David Blough | SO | 57.1% | 11.4 | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.8 | 18% |
North Texas | Alec Morris | SR | 56.8% | 10.7 | 3.8% | 3.1% | 5.66 | 17% |
Kansas | Montell Cozart | JR | 58.6% | 9.6 | 4.7% | 1.5% | 5.47 | 17% |
Virginia | Kurt Benkert | JR | 56.2% | 11.2 | 2.7% | 7.1% | 5.37 | 17% |
Middle Tennessee | John Urzua | FR | 59.5% | 10.5 | 6.1% | 4.4% | 5.61 | 16% |
Vanderbilt | Kyle Shurmur | SO | 54.4% | 11.8 | 2.7% | 7.9% | 5.37 | 16% |
Kentucky | Drew Barker | SO | 50.0% | 18.6 | 13.9% | 18.2% | 6.36 | 14% |
Bowling Green | James Morgan | FR | 56.1% | 11.4 | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.57 | 13% |
Nebraska | Ryker Fyfe | SR | 48.5% | 11.6 | 1.0% | 8.3% | 4.45 | 11% |
Arizona State | Brady White | FR | 51.0% | 10.4 | 2.0% | 2.0% | 5.1 | 11% |
UCLA | Mike Fafaul | SR | 52.1% | 11.9 | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.64 | 10% |
Illinois | Jeff George, Jr. | FR | 40.4% | 12.4 | 5.3% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 8% |
Charlotte | Kevin Olsen | JR | 49.7% | 9.7 | 1.7% | 4.9% | 4.15 | 7% |
Virginia | Matt Johns | SR | 57.1% | 8.7 | 7.9% | 4.5% | 4.52 | 5% |
San Jose State | Josh Love | FR | 51.7% | 12.6 | 8.3% | 14.3% | 4.94 | 5% |
Miami-OH | Noah Wezensky | FR | 52.8% | 11 | 3.8% | 8.6% | 4.52 | 4% |
Georgia Southern | Seth Shuman | FR | 47.2% | 10.5 | 4.2% | 1.4% | 4.75 | 4% |
Bowling Green | James Knapke | SR | 49.6% | 10.8 | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.57 | 1% |
- Top 5 statues by completion rate: Washington State’s Luke Falk (98th percentile), Toledo’s Logan Woodside (97th), Wisconsin’s Bart Houston (95th), ECU’s Philip Nelson (95th), WKU’s Mike White (94th).
- Top 5 statues by yards per completion: Kentucky’s Drew Barker (100th percentile), WKU’s Mike White (98th), Colorado State’s Nick Stevens (95th), Boise State’s Brett Rypien (94th), Colorado State’s Collin Hill (92nd).
- Top 5 statues by INT rate: OSU’s Mason Rudolph (86th percentile), Nebraska’s Ryker Fyfe (85th), Illinois’ Wes Lunt (81st), UTSA’s Jared Johnson (81st), Colorado State’s Collin Hill (78th)
- Top 5 statues by sack rate: Georgia Southern’s Seth Shuman (94th percentile), Troy’s Brandon Silvers (93rd), Kansas’ Montell Cozart (93rd), MTSU’s Brent Stockstill (91st), Colorado State’s Nick Stevens (90th).
- TOP 5 POWER CONFERENCE STATUES BY OVERALL PERCENTILE: OSU’s Mason Rudolph (94th), Wisconsin’s Bart Houston! (90th), Washington’s Jake Browning (88th), Miami’s Brad Kaaya (87th), Texas Tech’s Nic Shimonek (86th).
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The strange name here is obviously Bart Houston's. He isn't particularly synonymous with elite-level quarterbacking. Small samples played a role in this, but honestly ... he had a pretty damn good year, especially after the shaky start. No, really! He finished with a 149.7 passer rating!
Okay, fine, I'll just say that it was a samples thing. Same with Nic Shimonek, who threw just 58 passes. But Rudolph was awesome.
2016 passer stats (dual-threat)
Offense | Player | Class | Comp Rt | Yards/Comp | Int Rt | Sack Rt | OppRate | Hlt/Opp | PERCENTILE |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Offense | Player | Class | Comp Rt | Yards/Comp | Int Rt | Sack Rt | OppRate | Hlt/Opp | PERCENTILE |
Oklahoma | Baker Mayfield | JR | 70.9% | 15.6 | 2.2% | 4.8% | 44.3% | 3.26 | 97% |
Western Michigan | Zach Terrell | SR | 69.8% | 13.4 | 1.1% | 4.1% | 48.4% | 3.26 | 97% |
Louisiana Tech | J'mar Smith | FR | 69.8% | 13.7 | 2.3% | 8.5% | 61.5% | 5.03 | 96% |
North Carolina | Mitch Trubisky | JR | 68.0% | 12.3 | 1.3% | 4.3% | 52.1% | 5.00 | 95% |
Texas Tech | Patrick Mahomes II | JR | 65.7% | 13 | 1.7% | 4.4% | 42.3% | 3.92 | 93% |
Pittsburgh | Nathan Peterman | SR | 60.5% | 15.4 | 2.3% | 3.2% | 43.5% | 5.50 | 92% |
Auburn | Sean White | SO | 63.9% | 12.6 | 1.4% | 6.7% | 57.5% | 4.89 | 92% |
USC | Sam Darnold | FR | 67.2% | 12.5 | 2.5% | 1.6% | 50.0% | 3.21 | 92% |
Old Dominion | David Washington | SR | 59.4% | 14 | 1.5% | 4.2% | 57.7% | 4.16 | 92% |
Ole Miss | Chad Kelly | SR | 62.5% | 13.5 | 2.4% | 4.7% | 53.8% | 4.51 | 91% |
Florida State | Deondre Francois | FR | 58.8% | 14.3 | 1.8% | 7.8% | 43.2% | 7.52 | 85% |
West Virginia | Skyler Howard | SR | 61.1% | 13.5 | 2.5% | 5.8% | 47.0% | 4.47 | 85% |
Hawaii | Dru Brown | SO | 62.4% | 11.9 | 2.1% | 5.1% | 47.1% | 6.83 | 83% |
Clemson | Deshaun Watson | JR | 67.0% | 11.8 | 2.9% | 2.9% | 41.9% | 3.54 | 81% |
Notre Dame | DeShone Kizer | JR | 58.7% | 13.8 | 2.5% | 6.5% | 48.1% | 5.12 | 79% |
Appalachian State | Taylor Lamb | JR | 60.6% | 11.6 | 2.5% | 3.8% | 55.7% | 7.25 | 78% |
Texas A&M | Jake Hubenak | JR | 58.7% | 14.5 | 1.9% | 8.0% | 40.9% | 3.78 | 77% |
Syracuse | Eric Dungey | SO | 64.8% | 11.6 | 2.0% | 5.8% | 38.8% | 3.73 | 77% |
TCU | Kenny Hill | JR | 61.1% | 11.9 | 3.0% | 6.0% | 58.8% | 6.09 | 75% |
San Diego State | Christian Chapman | SO | 61.0% | 13 | 2.4% | 10.0% | 55.8% | 2.66 | 75% |
Arkansas State | Justice Hansen | SO | 57.9% | 13.8 | 2.4% | 5.3% | 33.3% | 5.16 | 71% |
Northern Illinois | Drew Hare | SR | 62.7% | 11.5 | 0.0% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 69% |
Florida Atlantic | Jason Driskel | SO | 61.2% | 12.1 | 3.4% | 6.3% | 65.5% | 3.32 | 68% |
Baylor | Seth Russell | SR | 54.7% | 14 | 2.9% | 4.5% | 53.1% | 6.05 | 67% |
Maryland | Perry Hills | SR | 61.9% | 12 | 2.0% | 14.7% | 50.9% | 4.14 | 67% |
Duke | Daniel Jones | FR | 62.8% | 10.5 | 2.1% | 6.3% | 57.1% | 3.56 | 67% |
Nevada | Tyler Stewart | SR | 63.2% | 10.6 | 1.7% | 8.4% | 54.1% | 3.36 | 65% |
Texas | Shane Buechele | FR | 60.4% | 12.5 | 2.8% | 7.3% | 45.6% | 3.09 | 64% |
Arizona State | Manny Wilkins | SO | 63.3% | 11.8 | 2.9% | 9.9% | 50.0% | 2.84 | 63% |
Kentucky | Stephen Johnson | JR | 54.7% | 14 | 2.3% | 7.0% | 45.5% | 5.81 | 63% |
South Alabama | Dallas Davis | SO | 56.7% | 13.7 | 3.4% | 6.4% | 50.7% | 5.40 | 63% |
Nevada | Ty Gangi | SO | 57.6% | 13.1 | 3.5% | 2.8% | 40.0% | 6.03 | 62% |
UTSA | Dalton Sturm | JR | 56.5% | 12.8 | 2.0% | 10.5% | 54.7% | 5.72 | 60% |
Texas A&M | Trevor Knight | SR | 53.3% | 12.6 | 1.9% | 3.2% | 47.3% | 9.05 | 59% |
New Mexico | Austin Apodaca | SR | 54.1% | 12.3 | 2.0% | 5.8% | 52.0% | 9.83 | 58% |
Utah State | Kent Myers | JR | 58.6% | 11.3 | 2.2% | 6.9% | 49.4% | 6.87 | 57% |
Rice | Tyler Stehling | SR | 61.4% | 10.6 | 2.2% | 7.9% | 50.7% | 4.43 | 55% |
Stanford | Keller Chryst | JR | 56.6% | 11.8 | 1.5% | 7.5% | 40.0% | 10.32 | 55% |
Eastern Michigan | Todd Porter | JR | 61.3% | 12.2 | 6.3% | 2.1% | 47.4% | 3.60 | 55% |
Ball State | Riley Neal | SO | 61.4% | 10.5 | 3.0% | 4.6% | 54.6% | 3.76 | 55% |
Miami-OH | Billy Bahl | SO | 55.2% | 16.7 | 3.2% | 13.2% | 57.1% | 2.79 | 53% |
Florida International | Christian Alexander | FR | 58.8% | 10.8 | 0.0% | 8.1% | 44.4% | 4.53 | 53% |
Michigan State | Tyler O'Connor | SR | 58.8% | 12.8 | 3.4% | 7.4% | 47.6% | 2.14 | 52% |
South Alabama | Cole Garvin | SO | 54.7% | 13.2 | 1.6% | 9.9% | 54.5% | 2.18 | 51% |
Houston | Kyle Postma | JR | 63.0% | 7.2 | 4.3% | 6.1% | 69.2% | 9.71 | 51% |
San Jose State | Kenny Potter | SR | 59.4% | 12.4 | 3.2% | 11.5% | 45.9% | 4.37 | 48% |
Michigan | John O'Korn | SR | 58.8% | 8.7 | 0.0% | 5.6% | 10.0% | 22.90 | 46% |
Ole Miss | Shea Patterson | FR | 54.5% | 12.2 | 2.3% | 6.4% | 57.6% | 4.44 | 46% |
Utah | Troy Williams | JR | 53.1% | 13.3 | 2.1% | 6.3% | 44.7% | 3.62 | 46% |
Buffalo | Grant Rohach | SR | 54.8% | 13.7 | 2.4% | 12.5% | 43.5% | 5.40 | 46% |
Syracuse | Zack Mahoney | JR | 60.7% | 11.5 | 3.0% | 10.0% | 44.8% | 2.62 | 42% |
North Texas | Mason Fine | FR | 59.4% | 10.1 | 1.9% | 12.1% | 46.6% | 6.83 | 39% |
Kent State | George Bollas | SO | 46.6% | 14.9 | 3.4% | 7.9% | 44.4% | 12.41 | 38% |
Cincinnati | Ross Trail | FR | 65.7% | 10.7 | 8.6% | 6.7% | 42.9% | 2.08 | 37% |
Kansas | Carter Stanley | FR | 59.6% | 10.3 | 3.8% | 4.9% | 37.5% | 9.39 | 37% |
Central Florida | McKenzie Milton | FR | 57.7% | 10.2 | 2.1% | 6.9% | 46.7% | 4.64 | 34% |
Arizona | Anu Solomon | JR | 59.4% | 12.2 | 3.1% | 15.8% | 38.5% | 2.14 | 34% |
Ohio | Greg Windham | SR | 54.2% | 11.8 | 2.7% | 2.9% | 45.3% | 4.33 | 33% |
New Mexico State | Tyler Rogers | SR | 55.4% | 11.6 | 3.0% | 7.1% | 52.7% | 3.95 | 31% |
Texas State | Tyler Jones | SR | 64.4% | 9.9 | 4.1% | 9.7% | 32.1% | 5.24 | 31% |
Auburn | Jeremy Johnson | SR | 57.4% | 11.6 | 4.3% | 6.0% | 25.0% | 9.40 | 29% |
Hawaii | Ikaika Woolsey | SR | 48.9% | 14.6 | 6.7% | 6.3% | 42.9% | 6.53 | 24% |
Stanford | Ryan Burns | SR | 61.1% | 11.3 | 4.2% | 12.1% | 32.4% | 3.45 | 23% |
Fresno State | Chason Virgil | FR | 51.6% | 12.2 | 3.1% | 6.1% | 38.6% | 6.85 | 22% |
Kansas | Ryan Willis | SO | 61.5% | 11.3 | 6.0% | 12.0% | 31.8% | 4.76 | 21% |
Maryland | Max Bortenschlager | FR | 48.5% | 13.1 | 0.0% | 15.4% | 16.7% | 3.90 | 21% |
Maryland | Caleb Rowe | SR | 51.4% | 15.6 | 8.1% | 7.5% | 16.7% | 4.40 | 17% |
Buffalo | Tyree Jackson | FR | 53.1% | 10.7 | 2.9% | 3.4% | 47.7% | 3.52 | 17% |
Massachusetts | Ross Comis | SO | 44.4% | 13.2 | 1.6% | 16.0% | 37.5% | 2.08 | 15% |
Iowa | C.J. Beathard | SR | 56.5% | 11.3 | 3.3% | 9.1% | 34.0% | 3.04 | 15% |
Arizona State | Dillon Sterling-Cole | FR | 50.9% | 13.9 | 7.3% | 9.8% | 44.4% | 2.38 | 11% |
Rutgers | Giovanni Rescigno | SO | 52.8% | 10.3 | 3.1% | 9.9% | 51.2% | 4.76 | 9% |
Oregon State | Darell Garretson | JR | 50.0% | 8.5 | 2.7% | 7.6% | 69.0% | 5.65 | 8% |
Rice | Jackson Tyner | FR | 47.8% | 9.9 | 1.5% | 4.3% | 41.2% | 1.66 | 8% |
Rutgers | Chris Laviano | JR | 48.3% | 10.7 | 1.4% | 7.6% | 33.3% | 3.50 | 8% |
TCU | Foster Sawyer | SO | 47.3% | 10.7 | 1.8% | 5.2% | 27.3% | 3.10 | 7% |
Oregon State | Conor Blount | FR | 54.3% | 9.6 | 5.7% | 14.6% | 37.5% | 1.17 | 1% |
Marshall | Garet Morrell | FR | 49.3% | 8.8 | 4.5% | 6.9% | 30.8% | 4.33 | 1% |
Florida Atlantic | Daniel Parr | FR | 41.7% | 7.1 | 5.6% | 7.7% | 57.1% | 1.68 | 1% |
Connecticut | Donovan Williams | FR | 47.4% | 8.3 | 6.6% | 12.6% | 25.0% | 11.80 | 0% |
- Top 5 dual-threats by completion rate: OU’s Baker Mayfield (98th percentile), Louisiana Tech’s J’mar Smith (97th), WMU’s Zach Terrell (97th), UNC’s Mitch Trubisky (95th), USC’s Sam Darnold (95th).
- Top 5 dual-threats by yards per completion: Miami (Ohio)’s Billy Bahl (99th percentile), OU’s Baker Mayfield (97th), Maryland’s Caleb Rowe (97th), Pitt’s Nathan Peterman (96th), Kent State’s George Bollas (93rd).
- Top 5 dual-threats by INT rate: Maryland’s Max Bortenschlager (96th percentile), NIU’s Drew Hare (96th), FIU’s Christian Alexander (96th), Michigan’s John O’Korn (96th), WMU’s Zach Terrell (86th).
- Top 5 dual-threats by sack rate: USC’s Sam Darnold (96th percentile), EMU’s Todd Porter (95th), Nevada’s Ty Gangi (92nd), Clemson’s Deshaun Watson (91st), Ohio’s Greg Windham (91st).
- Top 5 dual-threats by opportunity rate: Houston’s Kyle Postma (98th percentile), Oregon State’s Darell Garretson (98th), FAU’s Jason Driskel (96th), Louisiana Tech’s J’mar Smith (92nd), TCU’s Kenny Hill (88th).
- Top 5 dual-threats by highlight yards: Michigan’s John O’Korn (100th percentile), Kent State’s George Bollas (99th), UConn’s Donovan Williams (99th), Stanford’s Keller Chryst (96th), New Mexico’s Austin Apodaca (94th).
- TOP 5 POWER CONFERENCE DUAL-THREATS BY OVERALL PERCENTILE: Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield (97th percentile), UNC’s Mitch Trubisky (95th), Texas Tech’s Pat Mahomes II (93rd), Pitt’s Nathan Peterman (92nd), USC’s Sam Darnold (92nd).
Two 2017 Heisman favorites (or two of them, at least), and three big 2017 NFL Draft prospects there.
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Actually, the most interesting name here is one that wasn’t in that overall P5 top five: Deshaun Watson, who ended up in the 81st percentile, 10th among P5 dual-threats.
Opponent adjustments would have obviously been very kind to Watson (Clemson did play eight teams in the S&P+ top 25, after all), so keep that in mind. I’m assuming he’d have been in the top five here had that been taken into account. (And as soon as I figure out a decent way to do that, I will.)
But I guess if you’re trying to poke holes in Watson’s résumé — and we know that draft scouts love to do just that — you could note that Watson was pretty drastically below-average in quite a few categories.
Whereas Trubisky was at the 73rd percentile or higher in four of six categories and wasn’t below the 50th in any, Watson was 45th percentile in yards per completion, 49th in interception rate, 41st in opportunity rate, and 32nd in highlight yardage. He was really good at scrambling for necessary third-down yardage, but ... maybe that’s a thing? Maybe he’s not a great enough runner to scramble the same way in the pros?
I’m not sure I believe any of that, but as a thought experiment, it might have some merit.
(Gun to my head, I’m still picking Watson over Trubisky, though.)
2016 passer stats (runners)
Offense | Player | Class | Comp Rt | Yards/Comp | Int Rt | Sack Rt | OppRate | Hlt/Opp | PERCENTILE |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Offense | Player | Class | Comp Rt | Yards/Comp | Int Rt | Sack Rt | OppRate | Hlt/Opp | PERCENTILE |
Air Force | Arion Worthman | SO | 59.0% | 23.7 | 5.1% | 15.2% | 46.3% | 4.80 | 79% |
Air Force | Nate Romine | SR | 41.7% | 26.8 | 3.7% | 8.5% | 36.5% | 4.19 | 24% |
Akron | Tra'Von Chapman | JR | 46.2% | 13 | 4.3% | 5.6% | 41.5% | 7.90 | 33% |
Alabama | Jalen Hurts | FR | 62.8% | 11.6 | 2.4% | 4.7% | 45.3% | 7.13 | 88% |
Arizona | Brandon Dawkins | SO | 53.6% | 13.9 | 3.3% | 6.7% | 51.7% | 8.86 | 83% |
Arizona | Khalil Tate | FR | 40.0% | 13.5 | 6.7% | 4.3% | 44.7% | 4.88 | 10% |
Arkansas State | Chad Voytik | SR | 56.1% | 11.3 | 1.8% | 13.6% | 22.9% | 3.81 | 18% |
Army | Chris Carter | SO | 39.1% | 19.6 | 4.3% | 11.5% | 50.0% | 5.89 | 41% |
Army | Ahmad Bradshaw | JR | 44.0% | 17.6 | 9.9% | 6.2% | 44.1% | 4.22 | 17% |
Auburn | John Franklin III | JR | 53.8% | 14.6 | 0.0% | 3.7% | 55.6% | 10.40 | 96% |
Boston College | Patrick Towles | SR | 50.5% | 12.5 | 2.6% | 9.0% | 37.5% | 5.38 | 26% |
BYU | Taysom Hill | SR | 59.7% | 10.5 | 3.0% | 5.6% | 57.8% | 3.59 | 68% |
Central Florida | Justin Holman | SR | 43.4% | 14.2 | 2.4% | 9.8% | 37.9% | 7.67 | 29% |
Charlotte | Hasaan Klugh | SO | 53.6% | 11.3 | 1.3% | 6.3% | 50.0% | 5.85 | 66% |
Colorado | Steven Montez | FR | 59.3% | 13 | 3.6% | 5.4% | 50.0% | 4.93 | 76% |
Colorado | Sefo Liufau | SR | 62.7% | 11.8 | 1.9% | 6.7% | 38.5% | 3.07 | 56% |
Colorado State | Faton Bauta | SR | 41.4% | 9.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 47.4% | 5.27 | 27% |
Connecticut | Bryant Shirreffs | JR | 58.7% | 12.1 | 2.1% | 7.5% | 28.9% | 3.51 | 35% |
Florida International | Maurice Alexander | FR | 58.6% | 12 | 6.9% | 15.5% | 51.3% | 3.55 | 32% |
Fresno State | Zach Kline | SR | 53.2% | 12.5 | 2.5% | 11.2% | 44.7% | 4.16 | 33% |
Georgia Southern | Kevin Ellison | SR | 62.3% | 13.2 | 2.8% | 3.6% | 38.5% | 6.33 | 82% |
Georgia Southern | Favian Upshaw | SR | 54.8% | 13.3 | 2.4% | 5.6% | 53.1% | 4.86 | 73% |
Georgia State | Aaron Winchester | FR | 53.3% | 11.3 | 4.4% | 13.5% | 47.6% | 4.78 | 25% |
Georgia Tech | Justin Thomas | SR | 53.4% | 19.7 | 1.4% | 8.1% | 35.2% | 9.74 | 86% |
Georgia Tech | Matthew Jordan | SO | 33.3% | 37 | 11.1% | 10.0% | 29.7% | 4.43 | 5% |
Houston | Greg Ward Jr. | SR | 68.0% | 11.2 | 2.8% | 6.6% | 37.8% | 4.60 | 65% |
Illinois | Chayce Crouch | SO | 56.3% | 13.8 | 3.1% | 8.6% | 57.7% | 5.34 | 78% |
Indiana | Zander Diamont | JR | 60.0% | 21.3 | 6.7% | 6.3% | 44.7% | 8.35 | 93% |
Iowa State | Joel Lanning | JR | 58.6% | 13 | 1.8% | 10.6% | 41.6% | 6.18 | 70% |
Kansas State | Jesse Ertz | JR | 57.6% | 11.5 | 1.5% | 7.4% | 48.8% | 7.43 | 83% |
Kansas State | Joe Hubener | SR | 56.4% | 12.5 | 2.6% | 7.1% | 27.8% | 2.68 | 25% |
Kent State | Mylik Mitchell | FR | 56.5% | 9.3 | 1.4% | 14.8% | 41.7% | 5.13 | 34% |
Kent State | Nick Holley | JR | 49.3% | 12.1 | 2.1% | 8.8% | 43.1% | 5.59 | 32% |
Louisville | Lamar Jackson | SO | 56.2% | 15.4 | 2.2% | 10.1% | 59.3% | 7.85 | 93% |
Maryland | Tyrrell Pigrome | FR | 52.1% | 8.7 | 2.8% | 7.8% | 46.4% | 5.11 | 27% |
Memphis | Jason Stewart | SR | 65.6% | 10.9 | 0.0% | 3.0% | 24.0% | 3.52 | 61% |
Miami-OH | Gus Ragland | SO | 64.2% | 13.4 | 0.6% | 8.7% | 40.3% | 3.18 | 72% |
Michigan State | Brian Lewerke | FR | 54.4% | 12.3 | 1.8% | 5.0% | 72.2% | 5.82 | 82% |
Michigan State | Damion Terry | JR | 47.8% | 11.5 | 2.2% | 6.1% | 52.2% | 2.06 | 24% |
Minnesota | Mitch Leidner | SR | 56.4% | 12.5 | 3.9% | 5.0% | 49.5% | 2.93 | 51% |
Mississippi State | Damian Williams | JR | 66.0% | 8.8 | 0.0% | 6.0% | 56.3% | 5.44 | 90% |
Mississippi State | Nick Fitzgerald | SO | 54.3% | 12.4 | 2.8% | 3.7% | 49.2% | 8.69 | 82% |
Missouri | Marvin Zanders | SO | 83.3% | 11.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 51.4% | 4.20 | 95% |
Navy | Will Worth | SR | 61.5% | 19.4 | 2.6% | 10.7% | 36.3% | 5.04 | 83% |
Navy | Zach Abey | SO | 57.1% | 17.6 | 11.4% | 16.7% | 35.4% | 9.13 | 57% |
NC State | Jalan McClendon | SO | 53.3% | 11 | 13.3% | 6.3% | 32.4% | 4.90 | 8% |
Nebraska | Tommy Armstrong Jr. | SR | 51.4% | 14.4 | 2.7% | 2.0% | 36.4% | 6.12 | 54% |
New Mexico | Lamar Jordan | JR | 53.3% | 17 | 5.3% | 7.4% | 47.7% | 8.61 | 80% |
New Mexico State | Conner Cramer | JR | 43.6% | 11.1 | 7.7% | 7.1% | 52.6% | 11.97 | 25% |
Northern Illinois | Anthony Maddie | SR | 60.0% | 11.6 | 2.9% | 1.7% | 49.4% | 6.29 | 85% |
Northern Illinois | Daniel Santacaterina | FR | 47.4% | 20.1 | 5.3% | 2.6% | 44.0% | 2.76 | 38% |
Northern Illinois | Ryan Graham | SO | 55.9% | 9.6 | 4.7% | 0.8% | 34.9% | 4.48 | 22% |
Ohio | Quinton Maxwell | FR | 55.3% | 14 | 2.5% | 5.8% | 45.8% | 4.40 | 64% |
Ohio State | J.T. Barrett | JR | 61.5% | 11 | 1.8% | 6.7% | 46.1% | 4.02 | 67% |
Ole Miss | Jason Pellerin | FR | 50.0% | 9.5 | 13.6% | 4.3% | 32.1% | 1.61 | 1% |
Oregon | Dakota Prukop | 65.7% | 12.9 | 1.4% | 6.5% | 45.7% | 3.38 | 81% | |
Penn State | Trace McSorley | SO | 57.9% | 16.1 | 2.1% | 5.6% | 39.8% | 3.51 | 70% |
Rutgers | Tylin Oden | FR | 12.5% | 2 | 0.0% | 11.1% | 38.9% | 3.43 | 1% |
South Carolina | Brandon McIlwain | FR | 52.5% | 9.7 | 0.8% | 7.1% | 41.8% | 2.31 | 21% |
South Florida | Quinton Flowers | JR | 62.5% | 13.6 | 2.1% | 3.8% | 56.8% | 7.91 | 98% |
Southern Miss | Keon Howard | FR | 44.0% | 16.6 | 8.0% | 16.7% | 48.6% | 5.71 | 20% |
Southern Miss | Parker Adamson | JR | 48.7% | 10.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 1.90 | 13% |
Tennessee | Joshua Dobbs | SR | 63.0% | 13.1 | 3.4% | 6.5% | 50.0% | 8.97 | 94% |
Texas | Tyrone Swoopes | SR | 55.6% | 13.2 | 11.1% | 10.0% | 28.3% | 2.67 | 7% |
Texas State | Connor White | SO | 52.3% | 9.7 | 4.5% | 12.0% | 30.4% | 10.64 | 18% |
Tulane | Johnathan Brantley | FR | 38.1% | 6.4 | 0.0% | 12.5% | 41.9% | 7.25 | 9% |
Tulane | Glen Cuiellette | SO | 42.6% | 13 | 3.4% | 7.1% | 29.4% | 3.53 | 4% |
UL-Lafayette | Anthony Jennings | SR | 59.8% | 11.3 | 4.0% | 10.0% | 46.3% | 4.38 | 48% |
UL-Monroe | Garrett Smith | SO | 57.5% | 12 | 3.9% | 3.2% | 55.6% | 4.54 | 71% |
UL-Monroe | Caleb Evans | FR | 52.8% | 11 | 4.2% | 3.4% | 31.9% | 3.31 | 12% |
UL-Monroe | Will Collins | FR | 47.5% | 12.3 | 7.5% | 16.7% | 41.9% | 2.85 | 2% |
UNLV | Kurt Palandech | JR | 50.5% | 13.2 | 2.1% | 4.9% | 60.5% | 7.53 | 81% |
UNLV | Dalton Sneed | FR | 44.3% | 16.2 | 2.3% | 3.3% | 51.9% | 7.03 | 73% |
UNLV | Johnny Stanton | JR | 46.7% | 13.5 | 5.6% | 1.8% | 55.3% | 4.46 | 34% |
UTEP | Kavika Johnson | SO | 57.1% | 10.9 | 4.8% | 22.2% | 32.0% | 4.88 | 15% |
Virginia Tech | Jerod Evans | JR | 63.5% | 13.3 | 1.9% | 7.0% | 47.7% | 4.95 | 87% |
Wake Forest | John Wolford | JR | 55.5% | 10.7 | 3.3% | 9.9% | 54.6% | 6.20 | 61% |
Wyoming | Josh Allen | SO | 56.0% | 15.3 | 4.0% | 6.5% | 50.0% | 4.99 | 75% |
- Top 5 runners by completion rate: Missouri’s Marvin Zanders (100th percentile), Houston’s Greg Ward Jr. (94th), Mississippi State’s Damian Williams (91st), Oregon’s Dakota Prukop (90th), Memphis’ Jason Stewart (90th).
- Top 5 runners by yards per completion: Georgia Tech’s Matthew Jordan (100th), Air Force’s Nate Romine (100th), Air Force’s Arion Worthman (99th), Indiana’s Zander Diamont (96th), NIU’s Daniel Santacaterina (93rd).
- Top 5 runners by INT rate: A bunch of guys had zero INTs because of few attempts.
- Top 5 runners by sack rate: Missouri’s Marvin Zanders (96th), Southern Miss’ Parker Adamson (96th), Colorado State’s Faton Bauta (96th), NIU’s Ryan Graham (94th), NIU’s Anthony Maddie (91st).
- Top 5 runners by opportunity rate: Michigan State’s Brian Lewerke (100th), UNLV’s Kurt Palandech (96th), Louisville’s Lamar Jackson (95th), BYU’s Taysom Hill, Illinois’ Chayce Crouch.
- Top 5 runners by highlight yards: NMSU’s Conner Cramer (100th), Texas State’s Connor White (99th), Auburn’s John Franklin III (99th), Georgia Tech’s Justin Thomas (98th), Navy’s Zach Abey (96th).
- TOP 5 POWER CONFERENCE RUNNERS BY OVERALL PERCENTILE (100+ rushes and passes*): Tennessee’s Joshua Dobbs (94th percentile), Louisville’s Lamar Jackson (93rd), Alabama’s Jalen Hurts (88th), Virginia Tech’s Jerod Evans (87th), Georgia Tech’s Justin Thomas (86th).
* I had to set a higher bar for this one, otherwise low-sample guys dominated.
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Over the course of two years, I went from screaming that Joshua Dobbs was painfully overrated to screaming that he was painfully underrated. The way he finished his senior season was absolutely magnificent ... even if everybody had stopped paying attention.
I’m not going to pretend I’d take Dobbs over Lamar Jackson or anything, but ... well ... how much trouble will I get in for saying that Bama probably wins the national title with Dobbs at QB? A little or a lot?
So based on percentiles for each player type, here’s the overall list of top 30 FBS quarterbacks (with 100+ rushes/passes). 2017 returnees in bold.
- Mike White, WKU (statue, 98th percentile)
- Quinton Flowers, USF (runner, 98th percentile)
- Logan Woodside, Toledo (statue, 98th percentile)
- Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma (dual-threat, 97th percentile)
- Zach Terrell, WMU (dual-threat, 97th percentile)
- Ryan Higgins, Louisiana Tech (statue, 97th percentile)
- Nick Stevens, Colorado State (statue, 96th percentile)
- Mitch Trubisky, UNC (dual-threat, 95th percentile)
- Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State (statue, 94th percentile)
- Joshua Dobbs, Tennessee (runner, 94th percentile)
- Lamar Jackson, Louisville (runner, 93rd percentile)
- Patrick Mahomes II, Texas Tech (dual-threat, 93rd percentile)
- Brett Rypien, Boise State (statue, 93rd percentile)
- Nathan Peterman, Pitt (dual-threat, 92nd percentile)
- Sam Darnold, USC (dual-threat, 92nd percentile)
- Sean White, Auburn (dual-threat, 92nd percentile)
- David Washington, Old Dominion (dual-threat, 92nd percentile)
- Chad Kelly, Ole Miss (dual-threat, 91st percentile)
- Bart Houston, Wisconsin (statue, 90th percentile)
- Jalen Hurts, Alabama (runner, 88th percentile)
- Jake Browning, Washington (statue, 88th percentile)
- Brad Kaaya, Miami (statue, 87th percentile)
- Nick Mullens, Southern Miss (statue, 87th percentile)
- Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech (runner, 87th percentile)
- Justin Thomas, Georgia Tech (runner, 86th percentile)
- Brent Stockstill, MTSU (statue, 86th percentile)
- Deondre Francois, Florida State (dual-threat, 85th percentile)
- Anthony Maddie, NIU (runner, 85th percentile)
- Skyler Howard, WVU (dual-threat, 85th percentile)
- Dru Brown, Hawaii (dual-threat, 83rd percentile)
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And because I’m at least slightly mean, here’s your bottom 10 (again, 100+ rushes and passes)
178. Donovan Williams, UConn (dual-threat, zero percentile)
177. James Knapke, BGSU (statue, first percentile)
176. Glen Cuiellette, Tulane (runner, fourth percentile)
175. Kevin Olsen, Charlotte (statue, seventh percentile)
174. Chris Laviano, Rutgers (dual-threat, eighth percentile)
173. Jeff George Jr., Illinois (statue, eighth percentile)
172. Darell Garretson, Oregon State (dual-threat, eighth percentile)
171. Giovanni Rescigno, Rutgers (dual-threat, ninth percentile)
170. Mike Fafaul, UCLA (statue, 10th percentile)
169. Ryker Fyfe, Nebraska (statue, 11th percentile)
At least Williams and George were freshmen, I guess.
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