Toledo at BYU: Advanced stats tale of the tape

Toledo Rockets (3-0) vs. BYU Cougars (1-3)

September 30, 2016 ( 10:15 PM ET, ESPN2 )

Spread: BYU -3.5

S&P+ Projection: Toledo (29.0-28.4)

_{Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.}

The Basics

Category	Toledo		BYU
S&P+ (Rk)	24		37
Category	Toledo offense	BYU defense	BYU offense	Toledo defense
Yards per play (Rk)	7.31 (4)	5.39 (82)	4.87 (107)	3.44 (2)
Yards per game (Rk)	553.0 (7)	381.3 (59)	371.5 (95)	219.0 (4)
Points per possession (Rk)	3.12 (23)	1.83 (53)	1.66 (110)	0.73 (3)
Category	Toledo offense	BYU defense	BYU offense	Toledo defense
S&P+ (Rk)	33.4 (39)	23.5 (29)	31.3 (53)	19.6 (16)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk)	92.0 (105)	127.6 (16)	110.7 (51)	105.4 (53)
Passing S&P+ (Rk)	130.3 (18)	105.2 (58)	108.5 (59)	239.2 (1)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk)	97.0 (87)	126.9 (9)	112.2 (39)	184.8 (1)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk)	145.5 (16)	96.0 (83)	107.6 (61)	138.5 (16)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk)	119.4 (45)	114.7 (37)	101.7 (79)	159.9 (10)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)	98.3 (92)	118.8 (30)	102.6 (80)	128.3 (20)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)	141.0 (10)	109.4 (50)	117.5 (38)	142.4 (12)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)	101.4 (76)	117.0 (29)	129.7 (11)	100.4 (66)

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

Toledo

1. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 1 offense vs. No. 89 defense)
2. Third Down S&P+ (No. 11 offense vs. No. 96 defense)
3. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 1 offense vs. No. 80 defense)
4. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 1 offense vs. No. 80 defense)
5. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 1 offense vs. No. 78 defense)

BYU

1. Rushing S&P+ (No. 16 defense vs. No. 105 offense)
2. Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 23 defense vs. No. 111 offense)
3. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 24 defense vs. No. 108 offense)
4. Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 16 defense vs. No. 99 offense)
5. Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 9 defense vs. No. 87 offense)

Five Factors

Category	Toledo offense	BYU defense	BYU offense	Toledo defense
EXPLOSIVENESS	1.45 (17)	1.23 (56)	1.08 (123)	1.14 (31)
EFFICIENCY	46.9% (28)	40.4% (60)	44.1% (54)	20.5% (1)
FIELD POSITION	29.5 (78)	24.5 (9)	30.2 (63)	26.1 (24)
FINISHING DRIVES	5.6 (27)	4.6 (62)	4.2 (104)	3.3 (19)
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED: Toledo -1.97 (107) BYU 0.28 (66)		ACTUAL Toledo -4 (113) BYU 3 (24)

Offensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Toledo offense	BYU offense
Adj. Pace	0.9 (61)	1.6 (58)
Plays per game	75.7 (61)	76.3 (54)
Possessions per game	13.7 (51)	12.5 (88)
Std. Downs Run Rate	63.7% (41)	50.7% (107)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	44.2% (21)	32.2% (69)
% of solo tackles	59.8% (122)	79.8% (30)

Defensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Toledo defense	BYU defense
Std. Downs Run Rate	52.5% (107)	55.9% (88)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	43.1% (21)	32.1% (77)
Overall Havoc Rate	24.0% (7)	17.8% (49)
Front 7 Havoc Rate	16.7% (5)	13.3% (19)
DB Havoc Rate	7.4% (43)	3.7% (121)
PD to INC	27.9% (94)	42.9% (11)

When Toledo has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Toledo Offense		BYU Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	97.0	87	126.9	9	BYU big
Standard Downs Success Rate	45.1	88	41.4	31	BYU big
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.18	49	0.91	26	BYU
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.55	12	2.54	37	Toledo
SD Sack Rate	0%	1	3.7%	80	Toledo big

Passing Downs

	Toledo Offense		BYU Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	145.5	16	96.0	83	Toledo big
Passing Downs Success Rate	51.2	3	38.1	117	Toledo big
Passing Downs IsoPPP	2.01	28	1.44	87	Toledo big
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.87	30	2.57	35
PD Sack Rate	0%	1	5.3%	89	Toledo big

When BYU has the ball…

Standard Downs

	BYU Offense		Toledo Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	112.2	39	184.8	1	Toledo
Standard Downs Success Rate	47.8	64	21.3	1	Toledo big
Standard Downs IsoPPP	0.97	117	0.98	13	Toledo big
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.24	35	1.85	8	Toledo
SD Sack Rate	3.9%	60	6.9%	36	Toledo

Passing Downs

	BYU Offense		Toledo Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	107.6	61	138.5	16	Toledo
Passing Downs Success Rate	35.6	33	19.6	14	Toledo
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.41	118	1.84	20	Toledo big
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.47	63	3.37	73
PD Sack Rate	6.6%	56	17.2%	6	Toledo big

Individual Passing Stats

Team	Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Toledo	Logan Woodside	6'2, 201	JR	51	82	939	11	1	62.2%	0	0.0%	11.5
Toledo	Michael Julian	6'5, 232	JR	1	4	62	1	0	25.0%	0	0.0%	15.5
BYU	Taysom Hill	6'2, 235	SR	91	151	869	4	7	60.3%	8	5.0%	5.1

Individual Rushing Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate
Toledo	Kareem Hunt	RB	6'0, 225	SR	51	267	2	5.2	2.9	49.0%
Toledo	Terry Swanson	RB	5'10, 200	JR	30	107	0	3.6	2.3	26.7%
Toledo	Art Thompkins	RB	5'8, 178	FR	20	164	2	8.2	6.6	55.0%
Toledo	Damion Jones-Moore	RB	5'7, 178	SR	20	128	0	6.4	5.6	45.0%
BYU	Jamaal Williams	RB	6'2, 220	SR	79	417	3	5.3	5.3	40.5%
BYU	Taysom Hill	QB	6'2, 235	SR	40	271	2	6.8	5.1	52.5%
BYU	Squally Canada	RB	5'11, 200	SO	6	14	0	2.3	0.5	16.7%
BYU	Algernon Brown	RB	6'1, 250	SR	4	4	0	1.0	1.3	25.0%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Individual Receiving Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate
Toledo	Corey Jones	WR	5'9, 165	SR	19	13	184	1	14.2	9.7	68.4%
Toledo	Cody Thompson	WR	6'2, 200	JR	18	11	361	3	32.8	20.1	61.1%
Toledo	Michael Roberts	TE	6'5, 270	SR	16	10	123	5	12.3	7.7	62.5%
Toledo	Kareem Hunt	RB	6'0, 225	SR	6	5	27	0	5.4	4.5	83.3%
Toledo	Jon'Vea Johnson	WR	6'0, 185	SO	5	4	135	2	33.8	27.0	80.0%
Toledo	Desmond Phillips	WR	5'10, 170	FR	4	1	31	0	31.0	7.8	25.0%
Toledo	Zach Yousey	WR	6'1, 196	SR	3	2	73	1	36.5	24.3	66.7%
BYU	Moroni Laulu-Pututau	WR	6'4, 220	SO	25	15	152	1	10.1	6.1	60.0%
BYU	Nick Kurtz	WR	6'6, 215	SR	24	18	205	1	11.4	8.5	75.0%
BYU	Mitchell Juergens	WR	5'10, 181	SR	22	14	112	1	8.0	5.1	63.6%
BYU	Colby Pearson	WR	6'0, 203	SR	18	13	129	1	9.9	7.2	72.2%
BYU	Jonah Trinnaman	WR	6'0, 190	JR	16	11	88	0	8.0	5.5	68.8%
BYU	Jamaal Williams	RB	6'2, 220	SR	9	6	76	0	12.7	8.4	66.7%
BYU	Aleva Hifo	WR	5'10, 180	FR	9	6	33	0	5.5	3.7	66.7%

Individual Defensive Stats

Team	Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Toledo	John Stepec	DE	6'3, 256	SR	15.5	9.9%	5.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Toledo	Olasunkanmi Adeniyi	DE	6'2, 252	SO	12.5	8.0%	3.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Toledo	Ja'Wuan Woodley	LB	5'11, 233	JR	12.5	8.0%	3.0	1.0	0	1	1	0
Toledo	Jeremi Powell	LB	6'2, 210	SR	11.0	7.0%	2.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Toledo	Treyvon Hester	DT	6'3, 300	SR	10.0	6.4%	5.0	3.0	0	0	0	0
Toledo	Connery Swift	DB	5'11, 198	SR	9.5	6.1%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Toledo	Tyler Taafe	LB	6'1, 220	SO	7.5	4.8%	3.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Toledo	Josh Teachey	CB	5'11, 185	SO	7.5	4.8%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Toledo	DeJuan Rogers	DB	6'0, 190	SR	7.5	4.8%	0.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Toledo	Jack Linch	LB	6'0, 226	JR	6.5	4.1%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Toledo	Ka'dar Hollman	DB	6'0, 190	SO	6.5	4.1%	0.0	0.0	0	5	0	0
Toledo	Richard Olekanma	LB	6'2, 245	SO	6.0	3.8%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Toledo	Trevon Mathis	CB	6'0, 174	JR	5.0	3.2%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
BYU	Butch Pau'u	LB	6'0, 223	SO	32.0	14.5%	6.0	1.0	1	0	1	0
BYU	Fred Warner	LB	6'4, 230	JR	27.0	12.3%	4.0	0.0	1	2	0	0
BYU	Francis Bernard	LB	6'1, 239	SO	14.5	6.6%	2.0	1.0	2	2	1	0
BYU	Michael Davis	DB	6'2, 196	SR	14.0	6.4%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
BYU	Harvey Langi	LB	6'3, 252	SR	13.0	5.9%	2.5	1.5	0	0	1	0
BYU	Kai Nacua	DB	6'2, 215	SR	13.0	5.9%	0.0	0.0	3	0	0	0
BYU	Logan Taele	DL	6'2, 295	SR	12.5	5.7%	3.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
BYU	Matt Hadley	DB	6'0, 205	JR	12.0	5.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
BYU	Dayan Lake	DB	5'11, 200	FR	8.0	3.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
BYU	Eric Takenaka	DB	5'10, 210	SR	7.0	3.2%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
BYU	Corbin Kaufusi	OL	6'9, 270	SO	6.0	2.7%	1.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
BYU	Tomasi Laulile	DL	6'4, 285	JR	6.0	2.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
BYU	Sae Tautu	LB	6'4, 245	SR	5.5	2.5%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Individual Special Teams Stats

Team	Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Toledo	Nick Ellis	5'10, 175	SR	11	42.7	2	0	3	27.3%
BYU	Jonny Linehan	6'0, 203	SR	22	43.1	5	3	6	40.9%
BYU	Rhett Almond	6'4, 195	SO	1	39.0	0	0	0	0.0%

Team	Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%	OOB	Fair Catches	Onside Att	Onside Success
Toledo	Samuel Vucelich	5'11, 182	JR	17	62.1	3	17.6%	0	1	0	0
Toledo	Josh Rode	6'0, 185	SR	4	59.5	0	0.0%	0	0	0	0
BYU	Corey Edwards	6'0, 206	SO	9	58.2	1	11.1%	0	1	0	0
BYU	Andrew Mikkelsen	6'0, 200	SO	5	61.2	0	0.0%	0	0	0	0

Team	Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	FG	Pct
Toledo	Jameson Vest	5'10, 196	SO	17-17	3-6	50.0%
BYU	Rhett Almond	6'4, 195	SO	4-5	3-3	100.0%
BYU	Jake Oldroyd	6'1, 170	FR	1-1	3-4	75.0%

Team	Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Toledo	Corey Jones	5'9, 165	SR	6	15.5	0	0	0 (0)
Toledo	Art Thompkins	5'8, 178	FR	1	16.0	0	0	0 (0)
BYU	Aleva Hifo	5'10, 180	FR	2	32.0	0	0	0 (0)
BYU	Brayden El-Bakri	6'0, 235	SO	2	11.5	0	0	0 (0)

Team	Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Toledo	Corey Jones	5'9, 165	SR	7	4.9	0	13	1 (0)
Toledo	Danzel McKinley-Lewis	5'10, 180	FR	2	6.0	0	3	0 (0)
BYU	Garrett Juergens	5'10, 184	SR	7	9.7	0	8	0 (0)

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}