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Toledo at BYU: Advanced stats tale of the tape

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Toledo Rockets (3-0) vs. BYU Cougars (1-3)

September 30, 2016 ( 10:15 PM ET, ESPN2 )
Spread: BYU -3.5
S&P+ Projection: Toledo (29.0-28.4)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Toledo BYU
S&P+ (Rk) 24 37
Category Toledo offense BYU defense BYU offense Toledo defense
Yards per play (Rk) 7.31 (4) 5.39 (82) 4.87 (107) 3.44 (2)
Yards per game (Rk) 553.0 (7) 381.3 (59) 371.5 (95) 219.0 (4)
Points per possession (Rk) 3.12 (23) 1.83 (53) 1.66 (110) 0.73 (3)
Category Toledo offense BYU defense BYU offense Toledo defense
S&P+ (Rk) 33.4 (39) 23.5 (29) 31.3 (53) 19.6 (16)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 92.0 (105) 127.6 (16) 110.7 (51) 105.4 (53)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 130.3 (18) 105.2 (58) 108.5 (59) 239.2 (1)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 97.0 (87) 126.9 (9) 112.2 (39) 184.8 (1)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 145.5 (16) 96.0 (83) 107.6 (61) 138.5 (16)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 119.4 (45) 114.7 (37) 101.7 (79) 159.9 (10)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 98.3 (92) 118.8 (30) 102.6 (80) 128.3 (20)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 141.0 (10) 109.4 (50) 117.5 (38) 142.4 (12)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 101.4 (76) 117.0 (29) 129.7 (11) 100.4 (66)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Toledo

  1. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 1 offense vs. No. 89 defense)
  2. Third Down S&P+ (No. 11 offense vs. No. 96 defense)
  3. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 1 offense vs. No. 80 defense)
  4. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 1 offense vs. No. 80 defense)
  5. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 1 offense vs. No. 78 defense)

BYU

  1. Rushing S&P+ (No. 16 defense vs. No. 105 offense)
  2. Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 23 defense vs. No. 111 offense)
  3. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 24 defense vs. No. 108 offense)
  4. Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 16 defense vs. No. 99 offense)
  5. Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 9 defense vs. No. 87 offense)
Five Factors
Category Toledo offense BYU defense BYU offense Toledo defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.45 (17) 1.23 (56) 1.08 (123) 1.14 (31)
EFFICIENCY 46.9% (28) 40.4% (60) 44.1% (54) 20.5% (1)
FIELD POSITION 29.5 (78) 24.5 (9) 30.2 (63) 26.1 (24)
FINISHING DRIVES 5.6 (27) 4.6 (62) 4.2 (104) 3.3 (19)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Toledo -1.97 (107)
BYU 0.28 (66)
ACTUAL
Toledo -4 (113)
BYU 3 (24)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Toledo offense BYU offense
Adj. Pace 0.9 (61) 1.6 (58)
Plays per game 75.7 (61) 76.3 (54)
Possessions per game 13.7 (51) 12.5 (88)
Std. Downs Run Rate 63.7% (41) 50.7% (107)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 44.2% (21) 32.2% (69)
% of solo tackles 59.8% (122) 79.8% (30)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Toledo defense BYU defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 52.5% (107) 55.9% (88)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 43.1% (21) 32.1% (77)
Overall Havoc Rate 24.0% (7) 17.8% (49)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 16.7% (5) 13.3% (19)
DB Havoc Rate 7.4% (43) 3.7% (121)
PD to INC 27.9% (94) 42.9% (11)

When Toledo has the ball…

Standard Downs
Toledo Offense BYU Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 97.0 87 126.9 9 BYU big
Standard Downs Success Rate 45.1 88 41.4 31 BYU big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.18 49 0.91 26 BYU
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.55 12 2.54 37 Toledo
SD Sack Rate 0% 1 3.7% 80 Toledo big
Passing Downs
Toledo Offense BYU Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 145.5 16 96.0 83 Toledo big
Passing Downs Success Rate 51.2 3 38.1 117 Toledo big
Passing Downs IsoPPP 2.01 28 1.44 87 Toledo big
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.87 30 2.57 35
PD Sack Rate 0% 1 5.3% 89 Toledo big

When BYU has the ball…

Standard Downs
BYU Offense Toledo Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 112.2 39 184.8 1 Toledo
Standard Downs Success Rate 47.8 64 21.3 1 Toledo big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 0.97 117 0.98 13 Toledo big
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.24 35 1.85 8 Toledo
SD Sack Rate 3.9% 60 6.9% 36 Toledo
Passing Downs
BYU Offense Toledo Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 107.6 61 138.5 16 Toledo
Passing Downs Success Rate 35.6 33 19.6 14 Toledo
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.41 118 1.84 20 Toledo big
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.47 63 3.37 73
PD Sack Rate 6.6% 56 17.2% 6 Toledo big
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Toledo Logan Woodside 6'2, 201 JR 51 82 939 11 1 62.2% 0 0.0% 11.5
Toledo Michael Julian 6'5, 232 JR 1 4 62 1 0 25.0% 0 0.0% 15.5
BYU Taysom Hill 6'2, 235 SR 91 151 869 4 7 60.3% 8 5.0% 5.1
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Toledo Kareem Hunt RB 6'0, 225 SR 51 267 2 5.2 2.9 49.0%
Toledo Terry Swanson RB 5'10, 200 JR 30 107 0 3.6 2.3 26.7%
Toledo Art Thompkins RB 5'8, 178 FR 20 164 2 8.2 6.6 55.0%
Toledo Damion Jones-Moore RB 5'7, 178 SR 20 128 0 6.4 5.6 45.0%
BYU Jamaal Williams RB 6'2, 220 SR 79 417 3 5.3 5.3 40.5%
BYU Taysom Hill QB 6'2, 235 SR 40 271 2 6.8 5.1 52.5%
BYU Squally Canada RB 5'11, 200 SO 6 14 0 2.3 0.5 16.7%
BYU Algernon Brown RB 6'1, 250 SR 4 4 0 1.0 1.3 25.0%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Toledo Corey Jones WR 5'9, 165 SR 19 13 184 1 14.2 9.7 68.4%
Toledo Cody Thompson WR 6'2, 200 JR 18 11 361 3 32.8 20.1 61.1%
Toledo Michael Roberts TE 6'5, 270 SR 16 10 123 5 12.3 7.7 62.5%
Toledo Kareem Hunt RB 6'0, 225 SR 6 5 27 0 5.4 4.5 83.3%
Toledo Jon'Vea Johnson WR 6'0, 185 SO 5 4 135 2 33.8 27.0 80.0%
Toledo Desmond Phillips WR 5'10, 170 FR 4 1 31 0 31.0 7.8 25.0%
Toledo Zach Yousey WR 6'1, 196 SR 3 2 73 1 36.5 24.3 66.7%
BYU Moroni Laulu-Pututau WR 6'4, 220 SO 25 15 152 1 10.1 6.1 60.0%
BYU Nick Kurtz WR 6'6, 215 SR 24 18 205 1 11.4 8.5 75.0%
BYU Mitchell Juergens WR 5'10, 181 SR 22 14 112 1 8.0 5.1 63.6%
BYU Colby Pearson WR 6'0, 203 SR 18 13 129 1 9.9 7.2 72.2%
BYU Jonah Trinnaman WR 6'0, 190 JR 16 11 88 0 8.0 5.5 68.8%
BYU Jamaal Williams RB 6'2, 220 SR 9 6 76 0 12.7 8.4 66.7%
BYU Aleva Hifo WR 5'10, 180 FR 9 6 33 0 5.5 3.7 66.7%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Toledo John Stepec DE 6'3, 256 SR 15.5 9.9% 5.0 2.0 0 0 0 0
Toledo Olasunkanmi Adeniyi DE 6'2, 252 SO 12.5 8.0% 3.5 1.0 0 0 0 0
Toledo Ja'Wuan Woodley LB 5'11, 233 JR 12.5 8.0% 3.0 1.0 0 1 1 0
Toledo Jeremi Powell LB 6'2, 210 SR 11.0 7.0% 2.5 0.0 0 0 0 0
Toledo Treyvon Hester DT 6'3, 300 SR 10.0 6.4% 5.0 3.0 0 0 0 0
Toledo Connery Swift DB 5'11, 198 SR 9.5 6.1% 0.5 0.0 0 0 0 0
Toledo Tyler Taafe LB 6'1, 220 SO 7.5 4.8% 3.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Toledo Josh Teachey CB 5'11, 185 SO 7.5 4.8% 2.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Toledo DeJuan Rogers DB 6'0, 190 SR 7.5 4.8% 0.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
Toledo Jack Linch LB 6'0, 226 JR 6.5 4.1% 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Toledo Ka'dar Hollman DB 6'0, 190 SO 6.5 4.1% 0.0 0.0 0 5 0 0
Toledo Richard Olekanma LB 6'2, 245 SO 6.0 3.8% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Toledo Trevon Mathis CB 6'0, 174 JR 5.0 3.2% 1.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
BYU Butch Pau'u LB 6'0, 223 SO 32.0 14.5% 6.0 1.0 1 0 1 0
BYU Fred Warner LB 6'4, 230 JR 27.0 12.3% 4.0 0.0 1 2 0 0
BYU Francis Bernard LB 6'1, 239 SO 14.5 6.6% 2.0 1.0 2 2 1 0
BYU Michael Davis DB 6'2, 196 SR 14.0 6.4% 1.5 0.0 0 0 0 0
BYU Harvey Langi LB 6'3, 252 SR 13.0 5.9% 2.5 1.5 0 0 1 0
BYU Kai Nacua DB 6'2, 215 SR 13.0 5.9% 0.0 0.0 3 0 0 0
BYU Logan Taele DL 6'2, 295 SR 12.5 5.7% 3.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
BYU Matt Hadley DB 6'0, 205 JR 12.0 5.5% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
BYU Dayan Lake DB 5'11, 200 FR 8.0 3.6% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
BYU Eric Takenaka DB 5'10, 210 SR 7.0 3.2% 0.5 0.0 0 0 0 0
BYU Corbin Kaufusi OL 6'9, 270 SO 6.0 2.7% 1.0 1.0 0 1 0 0
BYU Tomasi Laulile DL 6'4, 285 JR 6.0 2.7% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
BYU Sae Tautu LB 6'4, 245 SR 5.5 2.5% 2.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Toledo Nick Ellis 5'10, 175 SR 11 42.7 2 0 3 27.3%
BYU Jonny Linehan 6'0, 203 SR 22 43.1 5 3 6 40.9%
BYU Rhett Almond 6'4, 195 SO 1 39.0 0 0 0 0.0%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Toledo Samuel Vucelich 5'11, 182 JR 17 62.1 3 17.6% 0 1 0 0
Toledo Josh Rode 6'0, 185 SR 4 59.5 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0
BYU Corey Edwards 6'0, 206 SO 9 58.2 1 11.1% 0 1 0 0
BYU Andrew Mikkelsen 6'0, 200 SO 5 61.2 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Toledo Jameson Vest 5'10, 196 SO 17-17 3-6 50.0%
BYU Rhett Almond 6'4, 195 SO 4-5 3-3 100.0%
BYU Jake Oldroyd 6'1, 170 FR 1-1 3-4 75.0%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Toledo Corey Jones 5'9, 165 SR 6 15.5 0 0 0 (0)
Toledo Art Thompkins 5'8, 178 FR 1 16.0 0 0 0 (0)
BYU Aleva Hifo 5'10, 180 FR 2 32.0 0 0 0 (0)
BYU Brayden El-Bakri 6'0, 235 SO 2 11.5 0 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Toledo Corey Jones 5'9, 165 SR 7 4.9 0 13 1 (0)
Toledo Danzel McKinley-Lewis 5'10, 180 FR 2 6.0 0 3 0 (0)
BYU Garrett Juergens 5'10, 184 SR 7 9.7 0 8 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics