/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51115149/GettyImages-607346530.0.jpg)
Toledo Rockets (3-0) vs. BYU Cougars (1-3)
September 30, 2016 ( 10:15 PM ET, ESPN2 )
Spread: BYU -3.5
S&P+ Projection: Toledo (29.0-28.4)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
Category | Toledo | BYU | ||
S&P+ (Rk) | 24 | 37 | ||
Category | Toledo offense | BYU defense | BYU offense | Toledo defense |
Yards per play (Rk) | 7.31 (4) | 5.39 (82) | 4.87 (107) | 3.44 (2) |
Yards per game (Rk) | 553.0 (7) | 381.3 (59) | 371.5 (95) | 219.0 (4) |
Points per possession (Rk) | 3.12 (23) | 1.83 (53) | 1.66 (110) | 0.73 (3) |
Category | Toledo offense | BYU defense | BYU offense | Toledo defense |
S&P+ (Rk) | 33.4 (39) | 23.5 (29) | 31.3 (53) | 19.6 (16) |
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 92.0 (105) | 127.6 (16) | 110.7 (51) | 105.4 (53) |
Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 130.3 (18) | 105.2 (58) | 108.5 (59) | 239.2 (1) |
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 97.0 (87) | 126.9 (9) | 112.2 (39) | 184.8 (1) |
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 145.5 (16) | 96.0 (83) | 107.6 (61) | 138.5 (16) |
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 119.4 (45) | 114.7 (37) | 101.7 (79) | 159.9 (10) |
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 98.3 (92) | 118.8 (30) | 102.6 (80) | 128.3 (20) |
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 141.0 (10) | 109.4 (50) | 117.5 (38) | 142.4 (12) |
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 101.4 (76) | 117.0 (29) | 129.7 (11) | 100.4 (66) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Toledo
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 1 offense vs. No. 89 defense)
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 11 offense vs. No. 96 defense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 1 offense vs. No. 80 defense)
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 1 offense vs. No. 80 defense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 1 offense vs. No. 78 defense)
BYU
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 16 defense vs. No. 105 offense)
- Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 23 defense vs. No. 111 offense)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 24 defense vs. No. 108 offense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 16 defense vs. No. 99 offense)
- Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 9 defense vs. No. 87 offense)
Five Factors
Category | Toledo offense | BYU defense | BYU offense | Toledo defense |
EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.45 (17) | 1.23 (56) | 1.08 (123) | 1.14 (31) |
EFFICIENCY | 46.9% (28) | 40.4% (60) | 44.1% (54) | 20.5% (1) |
FIELD POSITION | 29.5 (78) | 24.5 (9) | 30.2 (63) | 26.1 (24) |
FINISHING DRIVES | 5.6 (27) | 4.6 (62) | 4.2 (104) | 3.3 (19) |
TURNOVER MARGIN |
EXPECTED: Toledo -1.97 (107) BYU 0.28 (66) |
ACTUAL Toledo -4 (113) BYU 3 (24) |
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) | Toledo offense | BYU offense |
Adj. Pace | 0.9 (61) | 1.6 (58) |
Plays per game | 75.7 (61) | 76.3 (54) |
Possessions per game | 13.7 (51) | 12.5 (88) |
Std. Downs Run Rate | 63.7% (41) | 50.7% (107) |
Pass. Downs Run Rate | 44.2% (21) | 32.2% (69) |
% of solo tackles | 59.8% (122) | 79.8% (30) |
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) | Toledo defense | BYU defense |
Std. Downs Run Rate | 52.5% (107) | 55.9% (88) |
Pass. Downs Run Rate | 43.1% (21) | 32.1% (77) |
Overall Havoc Rate | 24.0% (7) | 17.8% (49) |
Front 7 Havoc Rate | 16.7% (5) | 13.3% (19) |
DB Havoc Rate | 7.4% (43) | 3.7% (121) |
PD to INC | 27.9% (94) | 42.9% (11) |
When Toledo has the ball…
Standard Downs
Toledo Offense | BYU Defense | ||||
Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
Standard Downs S&P+ | 97.0 | 87 | 126.9 | 9 | BYU big |
Standard Downs Success Rate | 45.1 | 88 | 41.4 | 31 | BYU big |
Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.18 | 49 | 0.91 | 26 | BYU |
SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.55 | 12 | 2.54 | 37 | Toledo |
SD Sack Rate | 0% | 1 | 3.7% | 80 | Toledo big |
Passing Downs
Toledo Offense | BYU Defense | ||||
Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
Passing Downs S&P+ | 145.5 | 16 | 96.0 | 83 | Toledo big |
Passing Downs Success Rate | 51.2 | 3 | 38.1 | 117 | Toledo big |
Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.01 | 28 | 1.44 | 87 | Toledo big |
PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.87 | 30 | 2.57 | 35 | |
PD Sack Rate | 0% | 1 | 5.3% | 89 | Toledo big |
When BYU has the ball…
Standard Downs
BYU Offense | Toledo Defense | ||||
Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
Standard Downs S&P+ | 112.2 | 39 | 184.8 | 1 | Toledo |
Standard Downs Success Rate | 47.8 | 64 | 21.3 | 1 | Toledo big |
Standard Downs IsoPPP | 0.97 | 117 | 0.98 | 13 | Toledo big |
SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.24 | 35 | 1.85 | 8 | Toledo |
SD Sack Rate | 3.9% | 60 | 6.9% | 36 | Toledo |
Passing Downs
BYU Offense | Toledo Defense | ||||
Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
Passing Downs S&P+ | 107.6 | 61 | 138.5 | 16 | Toledo |
Passing Downs Success Rate | 35.6 | 33 | 19.6 | 14 | Toledo |
Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.41 | 118 | 1.84 | 20 | Toledo big |
PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.47 | 63 | 3.37 | 73 | |
PD Sack Rate | 6.6% | 56 | 17.2% | 6 | Toledo big |
Individual Passing Stats
Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
Toledo | Logan Woodside | 6'2, 201 | JR | 51 | 82 | 939 | 11 | 1 | 62.2% | 0 | 0.0% | 11.5 |
Toledo | Michael Julian | 6'5, 232 | JR | 1 | 4 | 62 | 1 | 0 | 25.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 15.5 |
BYU | Taysom Hill | 6'2, 235 | SR | 91 | 151 | 869 | 4 | 7 | 60.3% | 8 | 5.0% | 5.1 |
Individual Rushing Stats
Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
Toledo | Kareem Hunt | RB | 6'0, 225 | SR | 51 | 267 | 2 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 49.0% |
Toledo | Terry Swanson | RB | 5'10, 200 | JR | 30 | 107 | 0 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 26.7% |
Toledo | Art Thompkins | RB | 5'8, 178 | FR | 20 | 164 | 2 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 55.0% |
Toledo | Damion Jones-Moore | RB | 5'7, 178 | SR | 20 | 128 | 0 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 45.0% |
BYU | Jamaal Williams | RB | 6'2, 220 | SR | 79 | 417 | 3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 40.5% |
BYU | Taysom Hill | QB | 6'2, 235 | SR | 40 | 271 | 2 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 52.5% |
BYU | Squally Canada | RB | 5'11, 200 | SO | 6 | 14 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 16.7% |
BYU | Algernon Brown | RB | 6'1, 250 | SR | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 25.0% |
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. |
Individual Receiving Stats
Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch |
Yds/ Target |
Catch Rate |
Toledo | Corey Jones | WR | 5'9, 165 | SR | 19 | 13 | 184 | 1 | 14.2 | 9.7 | 68.4% |
Toledo | Cody Thompson | WR | 6'2, 200 | JR | 18 | 11 | 361 | 3 | 32.8 | 20.1 | 61.1% |
Toledo | Michael Roberts | TE | 6'5, 270 | SR | 16 | 10 | 123 | 5 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 62.5% |
Toledo | Kareem Hunt | RB | 6'0, 225 | SR | 6 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 83.3% |
Toledo | Jon'Vea Johnson | WR | 6'0, 185 | SO | 5 | 4 | 135 | 2 | 33.8 | 27.0 | 80.0% |
Toledo | Desmond Phillips | WR | 5'10, 170 | FR | 4 | 1 | 31 | 0 | 31.0 | 7.8 | 25.0% |
Toledo | Zach Yousey | WR | 6'1, 196 | SR | 3 | 2 | 73 | 1 | 36.5 | 24.3 | 66.7% |
BYU | Moroni Laulu-Pututau | WR | 6'4, 220 | SO | 25 | 15 | 152 | 1 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 60.0% |
BYU | Nick Kurtz | WR | 6'6, 215 | SR | 24 | 18 | 205 | 1 | 11.4 | 8.5 | 75.0% |
BYU | Mitchell Juergens | WR | 5'10, 181 | SR | 22 | 14 | 112 | 1 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 63.6% |
BYU | Colby Pearson | WR | 6'0, 203 | SR | 18 | 13 | 129 | 1 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 72.2% |
BYU | Jonah Trinnaman | WR | 6'0, 190 | JR | 16 | 11 | 88 | 0 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 68.8% |
BYU | Jamaal Williams | RB | 6'2, 220 | SR | 9 | 6 | 76 | 0 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 66.7% |
BYU | Aleva Hifo | WR | 5'10, 180 | FR | 9 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 66.7% |
Individual Defensive Stats
Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Toledo | John Stepec | DE | 6'3, 256 | SR | 15.5 | 9.9% | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Toledo | Olasunkanmi Adeniyi | DE | 6'2, 252 | SO | 12.5 | 8.0% | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Toledo | Ja'Wuan Woodley | LB | 5'11, 233 | JR | 12.5 | 8.0% | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Toledo | Jeremi Powell | LB | 6'2, 210 | SR | 11.0 | 7.0% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Toledo | Treyvon Hester | DT | 6'3, 300 | SR | 10.0 | 6.4% | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Toledo | Connery Swift | DB | 5'11, 198 | SR | 9.5 | 6.1% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Toledo | Tyler Taafe | LB | 6'1, 220 | SO | 7.5 | 4.8% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Toledo | Josh Teachey | CB | 5'11, 185 | SO | 7.5 | 4.8% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Toledo | DeJuan Rogers | DB | 6'0, 190 | SR | 7.5 | 4.8% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Toledo | Jack Linch | LB | 6'0, 226 | JR | 6.5 | 4.1% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Toledo | Ka'dar Hollman | DB | 6'0, 190 | SO | 6.5 | 4.1% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Toledo | Richard Olekanma | LB | 6'2, 245 | SO | 6.0 | 3.8% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Toledo | Trevon Mathis | CB | 6'0, 174 | JR | 5.0 | 3.2% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
BYU | Butch Pau'u | LB | 6'0, 223 | SO | 32.0 | 14.5% | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
BYU | Fred Warner | LB | 6'4, 230 | JR | 27.0 | 12.3% | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
BYU | Francis Bernard | LB | 6'1, 239 | SO | 14.5 | 6.6% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
BYU | Michael Davis | DB | 6'2, 196 | SR | 14.0 | 6.4% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
BYU | Harvey Langi | LB | 6'3, 252 | SR | 13.0 | 5.9% | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
BYU | Kai Nacua | DB | 6'2, 215 | SR | 13.0 | 5.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
BYU | Logan Taele | DL | 6'2, 295 | SR | 12.5 | 5.7% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
BYU | Matt Hadley | DB | 6'0, 205 | JR | 12.0 | 5.5% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
BYU | Dayan Lake | DB | 5'11, 200 | FR | 8.0 | 3.6% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
BYU | Eric Takenaka | DB | 5'10, 210 | SR | 7.0 | 3.2% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
BYU | Corbin Kaufusi | OL | 6'9, 270 | SO | 6.0 | 2.7% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
BYU | Tomasi Laulile | DL | 6'4, 285 | JR | 6.0 | 2.7% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
BYU | Sae Tautu | LB | 6'4, 245 | SR | 5.5 | 2.5% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. |
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
Toledo | Nick Ellis | 5'10, 175 | SR | 11 | 42.7 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 27.3% |
BYU | Jonny Linehan | 6'0, 203 | SR | 22 | 43.1 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 40.9% |
BYU | Rhett Almond | 6'4, 195 | SO | 1 | 39.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches |
Onside Att |
Onside Success |
Toledo | Samuel Vucelich | 5'11, 182 | JR | 17 | 62.1 | 3 | 17.6% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Toledo | Josh Rode | 6'0, 185 | SR | 4 | 59.5 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
BYU | Corey Edwards | 6'0, 206 | SO | 9 | 58.2 | 1 | 11.1% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
BYU | Andrew Mikkelsen | 6'0, 200 | SO | 5 | 61.2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
Toledo | Jameson Vest | 5'10, 196 | SO | 17-17 | 3-6 | 50.0% |
BYU | Rhett Almond | 6'4, 195 | SO | 4-5 | 3-3 | 100.0% |
BYU | Jake Oldroyd | 6'1, 170 | FR | 1-1 | 3-4 | 75.0% |
Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
Toledo | Corey Jones | 5'9, 165 | SR | 6 | 15.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Toledo | Art Thompkins | 5'8, 178 | FR | 1 | 16.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
BYU | Aleva Hifo | 5'10, 180 | FR | 2 | 32.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
BYU | Brayden El-Bakri | 6'0, 235 | SO | 2 | 11.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
Toledo | Corey Jones | 5'9, 165 | SR | 7 | 4.9 | 0 | 13 | 1 (0) |
Toledo | Danzel McKinley-Lewis | 5'10, 180 | FR | 2 | 6.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 (0) |
BYU | Garrett Juergens | 5'10, 184 | SR | 7 | 9.7 | 0 | 8 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics