Stanford at Washington: Advanced stats tale of the tape

Stanford Cardinal (3-0) vs. Washington Huskies (4-0)

September 30, 2016 ( 9:00 PM ET, ESPN )

Spread: Washington -3.5

S&P+ Projection: Washington (31.5-30.1)

_{Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.}

The Basics

Category	Stanford		Washington
S&P+ (Rk)	9		11
Category	Stanford offense	Washington defense	Washington offense	Stanford defense
Yards per play (Rk)	5.44 (77)	4.34 (18)	6.75 (13)	4.79 (31)
Yards per game (Rk)	333.7 (114)	332.8 (29)	439.0 (57)	321.0 (25)
Points per possession (Rk)	2.42 (63)	1.18 (15)	3.59 (7)	1.16 (14)
Category	Stanford offense	Washington defense	Washington offense	Stanford defense
S&P+ (Rk)	32.9 (41)	18.3 (14)	35.6 (28)	16.7 (11)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk)	140.1 (6)	104.4 (56)	123.5 (18)	123.7 (29)
Passing S&P+ (Rk)	109.8 (55)	117.7 (31)	132.5 (13)	106.2 (54)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk)	129.8 (7)	112.6 (36)	126.7 (9)	124.4 (12)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk)	111.3 (56)	102.7 (64)	112.4 (52)	105.1 (59)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk)	156.9 (6)	104.8 (55)	113.0 (60)	109.1 (45)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)	144.3 (9)	124.4 (24)	118.8 (31)	126.7 (23)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)	100.8 (82)	124.6 (29)	132.5 (15)	89.3 (99)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)	122.0 (24)	96.1 (77)	107.0 (62)	118.7 (26)

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

Stanford

1. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 12 defense vs. No. 126 offense)
2. Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 13 offense vs. No. 96 defense)
3. Redzone S&P+ (No. 1 defense vs. No. 83 offense)
4. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 37 defense vs. No. 119 offense)
5. Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 12 offense vs. No. 91 defense)

Washington

1. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 18 defense vs. No. 104 offense)
2. Q3 S&P+ (No. 13 vs. No. 98 )
3. Run Stuffs (No. 13 offense vs. No. 90 defense)
4. Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 10 defense vs. No. 68 offense)
5. Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 18 offense vs. No. 74 defense)

Five Factors

Category	Stanford offense	Washington defense	Washington offense	Stanford defense
EXPLOSIVENESS	1.27 (65)	1.01 (2)	1.40 (27)	1.16 (35)
EFFICIENCY	42.9% (65)	39.9% (54)	52.9% (5)	39.6% (52)
FIELD POSITION	30.7 (52)	26.5 (28)	37.3 (8)	24.6 (10)
FINISHING DRIVES	4.7 (76)	3.2 (16)	5.2 (44)	2.8 (3)
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED: Stanford 1.03 (52) Washington 3.86 (6)		ACTUAL Stanford 0 (60) Washington 9 (1)

Offensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Stanford offense	Washington offense
Adj. Pace	-12.4 (124)	-8.8 (111)
Plays per game	61.3 (124)	65.0 (113)
Possessions per game	10.3 (128)	12.8 (77)
Std. Downs Run Rate	69.7% (18)	58.7% (64)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	42.6% (23)	30.6% (81)
% of solo tackles	77.2% (44)	79.7% (31)

Defensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Stanford defense	Washington defense
Std. Downs Run Rate	58.5% (72)	60.0% (59)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	18.3% (124)	25.6% (108)
Overall Havoc Rate	21.1% (15)	16.8% (61)
Front 7 Havoc Rate	11.3% (34)	8.8% (80)
DB Havoc Rate	9.8% (9)	7.7% (35)
PD to INC	44.2% (6)	22.4% (118)

When Stanford has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Stanford Offense		Washington Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	129.8	7	112.6	36	Stanford
Standard Downs Success Rate	46.8	76	43.6	48	Washington
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.31	22	0.97	4	Washington
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.19	40	2.80	64	Stanford
SD Sack Rate	9.1%	116	4.6%	66	Washington big

Passing Downs

	Stanford Offense		Washington Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	111.3	56	102.7	64
Passing Downs Success Rate	35.2	36	30.2	67	Stanford
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.18	128	1.52	59	Washington big
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.25	77	2.18	16	Washington big
PD Sack Rate	3.2%	23	18.8%	4	Washington

When Washington has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Washington Offense		Stanford Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	126.7	9	124.4	12
Standard Downs Success Rate	59.5	3	42.5	38	Washington
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.34	14	0.83	22
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.77	5	3.35	111	Washington big
SD Sack Rate	4%	61	11.4%	9	Stanford big

Passing Downs

	Washington Offense		Stanford Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	112.4	52	105.1	59
Passing Downs Success Rate	30.6	76	35.2	98	Washington
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.77	57	1.67	28	Stanford
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.57	57	2.39	26	Stanford
PD Sack Rate	16%	119	10.3%	37	Stanford big

Individual Passing Stats

Team	Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Stanford	Ryan Burns	6'5, 232	SR	35	57	395	3	2	61.4%	4	6.6%	6.2
Stanford	Keller Chryst	6'5, 236	JR	2	3	17	0	0	66.7%	0	0.0%	5.7
Washington	Jake Browning	6'2, 209	SO	67	95	904	14	2	70.5%	8	7.8%	8.4
Washington	K.J. Carta-Samuels	6'2, 219	SO	8	10	95	3	0	80.0%	1	9.1%	8.0

Individual Rushing Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate
Stanford	Christian McCaffrey	RB	6'0, 200	JR	80	436	3	5.5	4.5	42.5%
Stanford	Bryce Love	RB	5'10, 187	SO	16	102	0	6.4	7.3	37.5%
Stanford	Ryan Burns	QB	6'5, 232	SR	9	36	0	4.0	4.7	33.3%
Stanford	Cameron Scarlett	RB	6'1, 220	SO	4	-1	0	-0.3	0.0	0.0%
Washington	Myles Gaskin	TB	5'10, 195	SO	66	305	2	4.6	3.7	33.3%
Washington	Lavon Coleman	TB	5'11, 228	JR	27	261	1	9.7	13.0	44.4%
Washington	Jomon Dotson	TB	5'10, 174	SO	23	118	0	5.1	3.4	43.5%
Washington	Jake Browning	QB	6'2, 209	SO	10	56	1	5.6	2.2	60.0%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Individual Receiving Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate
Stanford	Trenton Irwin	WR	6'2, 199	SO	15	9	105	0	11.7	7.0	60.0%
Stanford	Christian McCaffrey	RB	6'0, 200	JR	14	12	119	1	9.9	8.5	85.7%
Stanford	Michael Rector	WR	6'1, 189	SR	10	6	79	1	13.2	7.9	60.0%
Stanford	Dalton Schultz	TE	6'6, 240	JR	8	3	28	0	9.3	3.5	37.5%
Stanford	JJ Arcega-Whiteside	WR	6'3, 218	SO	6	3	29	1	9.7	4.8	50.0%
Stanford	Greg Taboada	TE	6'5, 248	SR	3	2	37	0	18.5	12.3	66.7%
Stanford	Francis Owusu	WR	6'3, 219	SR	2	2	15	0	7.5	7.5	100.0%
Washington	John Ross	WR	5'11, 190	JR	20	17	195	5	11.5	9.8	85.0%
Washington	Chico McClatcher	WR	5'7, 179	SO	17	12	269	4	22.4	15.8	70.6%
Washington	Darrell Daniels	TE	6'4, 246	SR	15	10	135	1	13.5	9.0	66.7%
Washington	Dante Pettis	WR	6'1, 188	JR	14	11	151	3	13.7	10.8	78.6%
Washington	Andre Baccellia	WR	5'10, 171	FR	6	3	59	1	19.7	9.8	50.0%
Washington	Aaron Fuller	WR	5'10, 198	FR	6	5	51	0	10.2	8.5	83.3%
Washington	Myles Gaskin	TB	5'10, 195	SO	6	6	29	1	4.8	4.8	100.0%

Individual Defensive Stats

Team	Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Stanford	Zach Hoffpauir	FS	6'0, 202	SR	15.5	10.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Stanford	Kevin Palma	ILB	6'2, 251	SR	11.0	7.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Stanford	Joey Alfieri	OLB	6'3, 240	JR	10.5	7.0%	2.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Stanford	Alameen Murphy	CB	5'11, 194	JR	10.0	6.6%	0.0	0.0	0	3	0	0
Stanford	Peter Kalambayi	OLB	6'3, 243	SR	9.5	6.3%	4.0	2.5	0	0	0	0
Stanford	Dallas Lloyd	SS	6'3, 213	SR	9.5	6.3%	0.0	0.0	1	1	0	0
Stanford	Solomon Thomas	DE	6'3, 273	JR	8.0	5.3%	3.5	1.5	0	0	0	1
Stanford	Harrison Phillips	DT	6'4, 285	JR	7.5	5.0%	2.5	2.0	0	1	0	0
Stanford	Alijah Holder	CB	6'2, 186	JR	7.5	5.0%	1.0	0.0	0	5	1	0
Stanford	Bobby Okereke	ILB	6'3, 235	JR	7.0	4.6%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Stanford	Mustafa Branch	ILB	5'11, 214	SO	5.5	3.6%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Stanford	Quenton Meeks	CB	6'2, 192	SO	5.5	3.6%	0.0	0.0	1	2	0	0
Stanford	Terrence Alexander	CB	5'10, 182	JR	5.0	3.3%	0.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Washington	Azeem Victor	LB	6'3, 230	JR	26.5	10.9%	1.0	0.0	0	0	1	1
Washington	Keishawn Bierria	LB	6'1, 221	JR	21.0	8.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Washington	Budda Baker	DB	5'10, 192	JR	17.0	7.0%	2.5	0.5	0	0	1	0
Washington	Vita Vea	DL	6'5, 332	SO	12.0	4.9%	3.5	2.5	0	0	0	0
Washington	JoJo McIntosh	DB	6'1, 209	SO	12.0	4.9%	0.0	0.0	0	1	1	0
Washington	Sidney Jones	DB	6'0, 181	JR	11.5	4.7%	2.5	0.0	1	0	0	0
Washington	Joe Mathis	OLB	6'2, 255	SR	11.5	4.7%	2.5	2.0	0	1	0	0
Washington	Ben Burr-Kirven	LB	6'0, 214	SO	11.0	4.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Washington	Psalm Wooching	OLB	6'4, 231	SR	10.5	4.3%	1.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Washington	Greg Gaines	DL	6'2, 318	SO	10.0	4.1%	4.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Washington	Elijah Qualls	DL	6'1, 321	JR	10.0	4.1%	4.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Washington	Kevin King	DB	6'3, 192	SR	8.5	3.5%	2.5	0.0	1	3	0	0
Washington	Tevis Bartlett	LB	6'2, 230	SO	8.5	3.5%	2.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Individual Special Teams Stats

Team	Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Stanford	Jake Bailey	6'2, 193	SO	10	45.3	0	0	5	50.0%
Washington	Tristan Vizcaino	6'2, 206	JR	12	39.1	2	5	3	66.7%
Washington	Jake Browning	6'2, 209	SO	1	32.0	0	0	1	100.0%

Team	Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%	OOB	Fair Catches	Onside Att	Onside Success
Stanford	Jake Bailey	6'2, 193	SO	16	64.4	9	56.3%	0	1	0	0
Washington	Tristan Vizcaino	6'2, 206	JR	28	63.0	18	64.3%	0	0	0	0
Washington	Cameron Van Winkle	5'10, 186	SR	2	63.0	1	50.0%	0	0	0	0

Team	Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	FG	Pct
Stanford	Conrad Ukropina	6'1, 194	SR	7-7	6-6	100.0%
Washington	Cameron Van Winkle	5'10, 186	SR	24-24	3-6	50.0%

Team	Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Stanford	Michael Rector	6'1, 189	SR	3	11.0	0	0	0 (0)
Stanford	Christian McCaffrey	6'0, 200	JR	3	21.3	0	0	0 (0)
Washington	Austin Joyner	5'10, 190	FR	3	11.3	0	0	0 (0)
Washington	John Ross	5'11, 190	JR	3	43.3	1	0	0 (0)

Team	Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Stanford	Christian McCaffrey	6'0, 200	JR	2	8.0	0	5	0 (0)
Washington	Dante Pettis	6'1, 188	JR	6	15.5	1	4	0 (0)
Washington	Aaron Fuller	5'10, 198	FR	0	0.0	0	1	0 (0)

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}