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Stanford Cardinal (3-0) vs. Washington Huskies (4-0)
September 30, 2016 ( 9:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Washington -3.5
S&P+ Projection: Washington (31.5-30.1)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
Category | Stanford | Washington | ||
S&P+ (Rk) | 9 | 11 | ||
Category | Stanford offense | Washington defense | Washington offense | Stanford defense |
Yards per play (Rk) | 5.44 (77) | 4.34 (18) | 6.75 (13) | 4.79 (31) |
Yards per game (Rk) | 333.7 (114) | 332.8 (29) | 439.0 (57) | 321.0 (25) |
Points per possession (Rk) | 2.42 (63) | 1.18 (15) | 3.59 (7) | 1.16 (14) |
Category | Stanford offense | Washington defense | Washington offense | Stanford defense |
S&P+ (Rk) | 32.9 (41) | 18.3 (14) | 35.6 (28) | 16.7 (11) |
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 140.1 (6) | 104.4 (56) | 123.5 (18) | 123.7 (29) |
Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 109.8 (55) | 117.7 (31) | 132.5 (13) | 106.2 (54) |
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 129.8 (7) | 112.6 (36) | 126.7 (9) | 124.4 (12) |
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 111.3 (56) | 102.7 (64) | 112.4 (52) | 105.1 (59) |
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 156.9 (6) | 104.8 (55) | 113.0 (60) | 109.1 (45) |
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 144.3 (9) | 124.4 (24) | 118.8 (31) | 126.7 (23) |
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 100.8 (82) | 124.6 (29) | 132.5 (15) | 89.3 (99) |
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 122.0 (24) | 96.1 (77) | 107.0 (62) | 118.7 (26) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Stanford
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 12 defense vs. No. 126 offense)
- Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 13 offense vs. No. 96 defense)
- Redzone S&P+ (No. 1 defense vs. No. 83 offense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 37 defense vs. No. 119 offense)
- Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 12 offense vs. No. 91 defense)
Washington
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 18 defense vs. No. 104 offense)
- Q3 S&P+ (No. 13 vs. No. 98 )
- Run Stuffs (No. 13 offense vs. No. 90 defense)
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 10 defense vs. No. 68 offense)
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 18 offense vs. No. 74 defense)
Five Factors
Category | Stanford offense | Washington defense | Washington offense | Stanford defense |
EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.27 (65) | 1.01 (2) | 1.40 (27) | 1.16 (35) |
EFFICIENCY | 42.9% (65) | 39.9% (54) | 52.9% (5) | 39.6% (52) |
FIELD POSITION | 30.7 (52) | 26.5 (28) | 37.3 (8) | 24.6 (10) |
FINISHING DRIVES | 4.7 (76) | 3.2 (16) | 5.2 (44) | 2.8 (3) |
TURNOVER MARGIN |
EXPECTED: Stanford 1.03 (52) Washington 3.86 (6) |
ACTUAL Stanford 0 (60) Washington 9 (1) |
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) | Stanford offense | Washington offense |
Adj. Pace | -12.4 (124) | -8.8 (111) |
Plays per game | 61.3 (124) | 65.0 (113) |
Possessions per game | 10.3 (128) | 12.8 (77) |
Std. Downs Run Rate | 69.7% (18) | 58.7% (64) |
Pass. Downs Run Rate | 42.6% (23) | 30.6% (81) |
% of solo tackles | 77.2% (44) | 79.7% (31) |
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) | Stanford defense | Washington defense |
Std. Downs Run Rate | 58.5% (72) | 60.0% (59) |
Pass. Downs Run Rate | 18.3% (124) | 25.6% (108) |
Overall Havoc Rate | 21.1% (15) | 16.8% (61) |
Front 7 Havoc Rate | 11.3% (34) | 8.8% (80) |
DB Havoc Rate | 9.8% (9) | 7.7% (35) |
PD to INC | 44.2% (6) | 22.4% (118) |
When Stanford has the ball…
Standard Downs
Stanford Offense | Washington Defense | ||||
Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
Standard Downs S&P+ | 129.8 | 7 | 112.6 | 36 | Stanford |
Standard Downs Success Rate | 46.8 | 76 | 43.6 | 48 | Washington |
Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.31 | 22 | 0.97 | 4 | Washington |
SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.19 | 40 | 2.80 | 64 | Stanford |
SD Sack Rate | 9.1% | 116 | 4.6% | 66 | Washington big |
Passing Downs
Stanford Offense | Washington Defense | ||||
Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
Passing Downs S&P+ | 111.3 | 56 | 102.7 | 64 | |
Passing Downs Success Rate | 35.2 | 36 | 30.2 | 67 | Stanford |
Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.18 | 128 | 1.52 | 59 | Washington big |
PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.25 | 77 | 2.18 | 16 | Washington big |
PD Sack Rate | 3.2% | 23 | 18.8% | 4 | Washington |
When Washington has the ball…
Standard Downs
Washington Offense | Stanford Defense | ||||
Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
Standard Downs S&P+ | 126.7 | 9 | 124.4 | 12 | |
Standard Downs Success Rate | 59.5 | 3 | 42.5 | 38 | Washington |
Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.34 | 14 | 0.83 | 22 | |
SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.77 | 5 | 3.35 | 111 | Washington big |
SD Sack Rate | 4% | 61 | 11.4% | 9 | Stanford big |
Passing Downs
Washington Offense | Stanford Defense | ||||
Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
Passing Downs S&P+ | 112.4 | 52 | 105.1 | 59 | |
Passing Downs Success Rate | 30.6 | 76 | 35.2 | 98 | Washington |
Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.77 | 57 | 1.67 | 28 | Stanford |
PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.57 | 57 | 2.39 | 26 | Stanford |
PD Sack Rate | 16% | 119 | 10.3% | 37 | Stanford big |
Individual Passing Stats
Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
Stanford | Ryan Burns | 6'5, 232 | SR | 35 | 57 | 395 | 3 | 2 | 61.4% | 4 | 6.6% | 6.2 |
Stanford | Keller Chryst | 6'5, 236 | JR | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 66.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 5.7 |
Washington | Jake Browning | 6'2, 209 | SO | 67 | 95 | 904 | 14 | 2 | 70.5% | 8 | 7.8% | 8.4 |
Washington | K.J. Carta-Samuels | 6'2, 219 | SO | 8 | 10 | 95 | 3 | 0 | 80.0% | 1 | 9.1% | 8.0 |
Individual Rushing Stats
Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
Stanford | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 6'0, 200 | JR | 80 | 436 | 3 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 42.5% |
Stanford | Bryce Love | RB | 5'10, 187 | SO | 16 | 102 | 0 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 37.5% |
Stanford | Ryan Burns | QB | 6'5, 232 | SR | 9 | 36 | 0 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 33.3% |
Stanford | Cameron Scarlett | RB | 6'1, 220 | SO | 4 | -1 | 0 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0% |
Washington | Myles Gaskin | TB | 5'10, 195 | SO | 66 | 305 | 2 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 33.3% |
Washington | Lavon Coleman | TB | 5'11, 228 | JR | 27 | 261 | 1 | 9.7 | 13.0 | 44.4% |
Washington | Jomon Dotson | TB | 5'10, 174 | SO | 23 | 118 | 0 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 43.5% |
Washington | Jake Browning | QB | 6'2, 209 | SO | 10 | 56 | 1 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 60.0% |
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. |
Individual Receiving Stats
Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch |
Yds/ Target |
Catch Rate |
Stanford | Trenton Irwin | WR | 6'2, 199 | SO | 15 | 9 | 105 | 0 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 60.0% |
Stanford | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 6'0, 200 | JR | 14 | 12 | 119 | 1 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 85.7% |
Stanford | Michael Rector | WR | 6'1, 189 | SR | 10 | 6 | 79 | 1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 60.0% |
Stanford | Dalton Schultz | TE | 6'6, 240 | JR | 8 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 37.5% |
Stanford | JJ Arcega-Whiteside | WR | 6'3, 218 | SO | 6 | 3 | 29 | 1 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 50.0% |
Stanford | Greg Taboada | TE | 6'5, 248 | SR | 3 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 18.5 | 12.3 | 66.7% |
Stanford | Francis Owusu | WR | 6'3, 219 | SR | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 100.0% |
Washington | John Ross | WR | 5'11, 190 | JR | 20 | 17 | 195 | 5 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 85.0% |
Washington | Chico McClatcher | WR | 5'7, 179 | SO | 17 | 12 | 269 | 4 | 22.4 | 15.8 | 70.6% |
Washington | Darrell Daniels | TE | 6'4, 246 | SR | 15 | 10 | 135 | 1 | 13.5 | 9.0 | 66.7% |
Washington | Dante Pettis | WR | 6'1, 188 | JR | 14 | 11 | 151 | 3 | 13.7 | 10.8 | 78.6% |
Washington | Andre Baccellia | WR | 5'10, 171 | FR | 6 | 3 | 59 | 1 | 19.7 | 9.8 | 50.0% |
Washington | Aaron Fuller | WR | 5'10, 198 | FR | 6 | 5 | 51 | 0 | 10.2 | 8.5 | 83.3% |
Washington | Myles Gaskin | TB | 5'10, 195 | SO | 6 | 6 | 29 | 1 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 100.0% |
Individual Defensive Stats
Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Stanford | Zach Hoffpauir | FS | 6'0, 202 | SR | 15.5 | 10.3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Stanford | Kevin Palma | ILB | 6'2, 251 | SR | 11.0 | 7.3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Stanford | Joey Alfieri | OLB | 6'3, 240 | JR | 10.5 | 7.0% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Stanford | Alameen Murphy | CB | 5'11, 194 | JR | 10.0 | 6.6% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Stanford | Peter Kalambayi | OLB | 6'3, 243 | SR | 9.5 | 6.3% | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Stanford | Dallas Lloyd | SS | 6'3, 213 | SR | 9.5 | 6.3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Stanford | Solomon Thomas | DE | 6'3, 273 | JR | 8.0 | 5.3% | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Stanford | Harrison Phillips | DT | 6'4, 285 | JR | 7.5 | 5.0% | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Stanford | Alijah Holder | CB | 6'2, 186 | JR | 7.5 | 5.0% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Stanford | Bobby Okereke | ILB | 6'3, 235 | JR | 7.0 | 4.6% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Stanford | Mustafa Branch | ILB | 5'11, 214 | SO | 5.5 | 3.6% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Stanford | Quenton Meeks | CB | 6'2, 192 | SO | 5.5 | 3.6% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Stanford | Terrence Alexander | CB | 5'10, 182 | JR | 5.0 | 3.3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Washington | Azeem Victor | LB | 6'3, 230 | JR | 26.5 | 10.9% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Washington | Keishawn Bierria | LB | 6'1, 221 | JR | 21.0 | 8.6% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Washington | Budda Baker | DB | 5'10, 192 | JR | 17.0 | 7.0% | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Washington | Vita Vea | DL | 6'5, 332 | SO | 12.0 | 4.9% | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Washington | JoJo McIntosh | DB | 6'1, 209 | SO | 12.0 | 4.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Washington | Sidney Jones | DB | 6'0, 181 | JR | 11.5 | 4.7% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Washington | Joe Mathis | OLB | 6'2, 255 | SR | 11.5 | 4.7% | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Washington | Ben Burr-Kirven | LB | 6'0, 214 | SO | 11.0 | 4.5% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Washington | Psalm Wooching | OLB | 6'4, 231 | SR | 10.5 | 4.3% | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Washington | Greg Gaines | DL | 6'2, 318 | SO | 10.0 | 4.1% | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Washington | Elijah Qualls | DL | 6'1, 321 | JR | 10.0 | 4.1% | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Washington | Kevin King | DB | 6'3, 192 | SR | 8.5 | 3.5% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Washington | Tevis Bartlett | LB | 6'2, 230 | SO | 8.5 | 3.5% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. |
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
Stanford | Jake Bailey | 6'2, 193 | SO | 10 | 45.3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 50.0% |
Washington | Tristan Vizcaino | 6'2, 206 | JR | 12 | 39.1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 66.7% |
Washington | Jake Browning | 6'2, 209 | SO | 1 | 32.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 100.0% |
Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches |
Onside Att |
Onside Success |
Stanford | Jake Bailey | 6'2, 193 | SO | 16 | 64.4 | 9 | 56.3% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Washington | Tristan Vizcaino | 6'2, 206 | JR | 28 | 63.0 | 18 | 64.3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Washington | Cameron Van Winkle | 5'10, 186 | SR | 2 | 63.0 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
Stanford | Conrad Ukropina | 6'1, 194 | SR | 7-7 | 6-6 | 100.0% |
Washington | Cameron Van Winkle | 5'10, 186 | SR | 24-24 | 3-6 | 50.0% |
Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
Stanford | Michael Rector | 6'1, 189 | SR | 3 | 11.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Stanford | Christian McCaffrey | 6'0, 200 | JR | 3 | 21.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Washington | Austin Joyner | 5'10, 190 | FR | 3 | 11.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Washington | John Ross | 5'11, 190 | JR | 3 | 43.3 | 1 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
Stanford | Christian McCaffrey | 6'0, 200 | JR | 2 | 8.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 (0) |
Washington | Dante Pettis | 6'1, 188 | JR | 6 | 15.5 | 1 | 4 | 0 (0) |
Washington | Aaron Fuller | 5'10, 198 | FR | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics