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Stanford at Washington: Advanced stats tale of the tape

Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports

Stanford Cardinal (3-0) vs. Washington Huskies (4-0)

September 30, 2016 ( 9:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Washington -3.5
S&P+ Projection: Washington (31.5-30.1)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Stanford Washington
S&P+ (Rk) 9 11
Category Stanford offense Washington defense Washington offense Stanford defense
Yards per play (Rk) 5.44 (77) 4.34 (18) 6.75 (13) 4.79 (31)
Yards per game (Rk) 333.7 (114) 332.8 (29) 439.0 (57) 321.0 (25)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.42 (63) 1.18 (15) 3.59 (7) 1.16 (14)
Category Stanford offense Washington defense Washington offense Stanford defense
S&P+ (Rk) 32.9 (41) 18.3 (14) 35.6 (28) 16.7 (11)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 140.1 (6) 104.4 (56) 123.5 (18) 123.7 (29)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 109.8 (55) 117.7 (31) 132.5 (13) 106.2 (54)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 129.8 (7) 112.6 (36) 126.7 (9) 124.4 (12)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 111.3 (56) 102.7 (64) 112.4 (52) 105.1 (59)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 156.9 (6) 104.8 (55) 113.0 (60) 109.1 (45)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 144.3 (9) 124.4 (24) 118.8 (31) 126.7 (23)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 100.8 (82) 124.6 (29) 132.5 (15) 89.3 (99)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 122.0 (24) 96.1 (77) 107.0 (62) 118.7 (26)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Stanford

  1. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 12 defense vs. No. 126 offense)
  2. Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 13 offense vs. No. 96 defense)
  3. Redzone S&P+ (No. 1 defense vs. No. 83 offense)
  4. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 37 defense vs. No. 119 offense)
  5. Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 12 offense vs. No. 91 defense)

Washington

  1. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 18 defense vs. No. 104 offense)
  2. Q3 S&P+ (No. 13 vs. No. 98 )
  3. Run Stuffs (No. 13 offense vs. No. 90 defense)
  4. Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 10 defense vs. No. 68 offense)
  5. Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 18 offense vs. No. 74 defense)
Five Factors
Category Stanford offense Washington defense Washington offense Stanford defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.27 (65) 1.01 (2) 1.40 (27) 1.16 (35)
EFFICIENCY 42.9% (65) 39.9% (54) 52.9% (5) 39.6% (52)
FIELD POSITION 30.7 (52) 26.5 (28) 37.3 (8) 24.6 (10)
FINISHING DRIVES 4.7 (76) 3.2 (16) 5.2 (44) 2.8 (3)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Stanford 1.03 (52)
Washington 3.86 (6)
ACTUAL
Stanford 0 (60)
Washington 9 (1)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Stanford offense Washington offense
Adj. Pace -12.4 (124) -8.8 (111)
Plays per game 61.3 (124) 65.0 (113)
Possessions per game 10.3 (128) 12.8 (77)
Std. Downs Run Rate 69.7% (18) 58.7% (64)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 42.6% (23) 30.6% (81)
% of solo tackles 77.2% (44) 79.7% (31)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Stanford defense Washington defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 58.5% (72) 60.0% (59)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 18.3% (124) 25.6% (108)
Overall Havoc Rate 21.1% (15) 16.8% (61)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 11.3% (34) 8.8% (80)
DB Havoc Rate 9.8% (9) 7.7% (35)
PD to INC 44.2% (6) 22.4% (118)

When Stanford has the ball…

Standard Downs
Stanford Offense Washington Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 129.8 7 112.6 36 Stanford
Standard Downs Success Rate 46.8 76 43.6 48 Washington
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.31 22 0.97 4 Washington
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.19 40 2.80 64 Stanford
SD Sack Rate 9.1% 116 4.6% 66 Washington big
Passing Downs
Stanford Offense Washington Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 111.3 56 102.7 64
Passing Downs Success Rate 35.2 36 30.2 67 Stanford
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.18 128 1.52 59 Washington big
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.25 77 2.18 16 Washington big
PD Sack Rate 3.2% 23 18.8% 4 Washington

When Washington has the ball…

Standard Downs
Washington Offense Stanford Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 126.7 9 124.4 12
Standard Downs Success Rate 59.5 3 42.5 38 Washington
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.34 14 0.83 22
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.77 5 3.35 111 Washington big
SD Sack Rate 4% 61 11.4% 9 Stanford big
Passing Downs
Washington Offense Stanford Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 112.4 52 105.1 59
Passing Downs Success Rate 30.6 76 35.2 98 Washington
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.77 57 1.67 28 Stanford
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.57 57 2.39 26 Stanford
PD Sack Rate 16% 119 10.3% 37 Stanford big
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Stanford Ryan Burns 6'5, 232 SR 35 57 395 3 2 61.4% 4 6.6% 6.2
Stanford Keller Chryst 6'5, 236 JR 2 3 17 0 0 66.7% 0 0.0% 5.7
Washington Jake Browning 6'2, 209 SO 67 95 904 14 2 70.5% 8 7.8% 8.4
Washington K.J. Carta-Samuels 6'2, 219 SO 8 10 95 3 0 80.0% 1 9.1% 8.0
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Stanford Christian McCaffrey RB 6'0, 200 JR 80 436 3 5.5 4.5 42.5%
Stanford Bryce Love RB 5'10, 187 SO 16 102 0 6.4 7.3 37.5%
Stanford Ryan Burns QB 6'5, 232 SR 9 36 0 4.0 4.7 33.3%
Stanford Cameron Scarlett RB 6'1, 220 SO 4 -1 0 -0.3 0.0 0.0%
Washington Myles Gaskin TB 5'10, 195 SO 66 305 2 4.6 3.7 33.3%
Washington Lavon Coleman TB 5'11, 228 JR 27 261 1 9.7 13.0 44.4%
Washington Jomon Dotson TB 5'10, 174 SO 23 118 0 5.1 3.4 43.5%
Washington Jake Browning QB 6'2, 209 SO 10 56 1 5.6 2.2 60.0%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Stanford Trenton Irwin WR 6'2, 199 SO 15 9 105 0 11.7 7.0 60.0%
Stanford Christian McCaffrey RB 6'0, 200 JR 14 12 119 1 9.9 8.5 85.7%
Stanford Michael Rector WR 6'1, 189 SR 10 6 79 1 13.2 7.9 60.0%
Stanford Dalton Schultz TE 6'6, 240 JR 8 3 28 0 9.3 3.5 37.5%
Stanford JJ Arcega-Whiteside WR 6'3, 218 SO 6 3 29 1 9.7 4.8 50.0%
Stanford Greg Taboada TE 6'5, 248 SR 3 2 37 0 18.5 12.3 66.7%
Stanford Francis Owusu WR 6'3, 219 SR 2 2 15 0 7.5 7.5 100.0%
Washington John Ross WR 5'11, 190 JR 20 17 195 5 11.5 9.8 85.0%
Washington Chico McClatcher WR 5'7, 179 SO 17 12 269 4 22.4 15.8 70.6%
Washington Darrell Daniels TE 6'4, 246 SR 15 10 135 1 13.5 9.0 66.7%
Washington Dante Pettis WR 6'1, 188 JR 14 11 151 3 13.7 10.8 78.6%
Washington Andre Baccellia WR 5'10, 171 FR 6 3 59 1 19.7 9.8 50.0%
Washington Aaron Fuller WR 5'10, 198 FR 6 5 51 0 10.2 8.5 83.3%
Washington Myles Gaskin TB 5'10, 195 SO 6 6 29 1 4.8 4.8 100.0%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Stanford Zach Hoffpauir FS 6'0, 202 SR 15.5 10.3% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Stanford Kevin Palma ILB 6'2, 251 SR 11.0 7.3% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Stanford Joey Alfieri OLB 6'3, 240 JR 10.5 7.0% 2.0 1.0 0 0 1 0
Stanford Alameen Murphy CB 5'11, 194 JR 10.0 6.6% 0.0 0.0 0 3 0 0
Stanford Peter Kalambayi OLB 6'3, 243 SR 9.5 6.3% 4.0 2.5 0 0 0 0
Stanford Dallas Lloyd SS 6'3, 213 SR 9.5 6.3% 0.0 0.0 1 1 0 0
Stanford Solomon Thomas DE 6'3, 273 JR 8.0 5.3% 3.5 1.5 0 0 0 1
Stanford Harrison Phillips DT 6'4, 285 JR 7.5 5.0% 2.5 2.0 0 1 0 0
Stanford Alijah Holder CB 6'2, 186 JR 7.5 5.0% 1.0 0.0 0 5 1 0
Stanford Bobby Okereke ILB 6'3, 235 JR 7.0 4.6% 2.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Stanford Mustafa Branch ILB 5'11, 214 SO 5.5 3.6% 0.5 0.0 0 0 0 0
Stanford Quenton Meeks CB 6'2, 192 SO 5.5 3.6% 0.0 0.0 1 2 0 0
Stanford Terrence Alexander CB 5'10, 182 JR 5.0 3.3% 0.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
Washington Azeem Victor LB 6'3, 230 JR 26.5 10.9% 1.0 0.0 0 0 1 1
Washington Keishawn Bierria LB 6'1, 221 JR 21.0 8.6% 0.0 0.0 0 0 1 0
Washington Budda Baker DB 5'10, 192 JR 17.0 7.0% 2.5 0.5 0 0 1 0
Washington Vita Vea DL 6'5, 332 SO 12.0 4.9% 3.5 2.5 0 0 0 0
Washington JoJo McIntosh DB 6'1, 209 SO 12.0 4.9% 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0
Washington Sidney Jones DB 6'0, 181 JR 11.5 4.7% 2.5 0.0 1 0 0 0
Washington Joe Mathis OLB 6'2, 255 SR 11.5 4.7% 2.5 2.0 0 1 0 0
Washington Ben Burr-Kirven LB 6'0, 214 SO 11.0 4.5% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Washington Psalm Wooching OLB 6'4, 231 SR 10.5 4.3% 1.5 1.5 0 0 0 0
Washington Greg Gaines DL 6'2, 318 SO 10.0 4.1% 4.5 0.5 0 0 0 0
Washington Elijah Qualls DL 6'1, 321 JR 10.0 4.1% 4.0 2.0 0 0 0 0
Washington Kevin King DB 6'3, 192 SR 8.5 3.5% 2.5 0.0 1 3 0 0
Washington Tevis Bartlett LB 6'2, 230 SO 8.5 3.5% 2.0 1.0 0 0 1 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Stanford Jake Bailey 6'2, 193 SO 10 45.3 0 0 5 50.0%
Washington Tristan Vizcaino 6'2, 206 JR 12 39.1 2 5 3 66.7%
Washington Jake Browning 6'2, 209 SO 1 32.0 0 0 1 100.0%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Stanford Jake Bailey 6'2, 193 SO 16 64.4 9 56.3% 0 1 0 0
Washington Tristan Vizcaino 6'2, 206 JR 28 63.0 18 64.3% 0 0 0 0
Washington Cameron Van Winkle 5'10, 186 SR 2 63.0 1 50.0% 0 0 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Stanford Conrad Ukropina 6'1, 194 SR 7-7 6-6 100.0%
Washington Cameron Van Winkle 5'10, 186 SR 24-24 3-6 50.0%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Stanford Michael Rector 6'1, 189 SR 3 11.0 0 0 0 (0)
Stanford Christian McCaffrey 6'0, 200 JR 3 21.3 0 0 0 (0)
Washington Austin Joyner 5'10, 190 FR 3 11.3 0 0 0 (0)
Washington John Ross 5'11, 190 JR 3 43.3 1 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Stanford Christian McCaffrey 6'0, 200 JR 2 8.0 0 5 0 (0)
Washington Dante Pettis 6'1, 188 JR 6 15.5 1 4 0 (0)
Washington Aaron Fuller 5'10, 198 FR 0 0.0 0 1 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics