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Kansas at Texas Tech: Advanced stats tale of the tape

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Kansas Jayhawks (1-2) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-1)

September 29, 2016 ( 8:30 PM ET, FS1 )
Spread: Texas Tech -28.5
S&P+ Projection: Texas Tech (45.3-23.7)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Kansas Texas Tech
S&P+ (Rk) 109 49
Category Kansas offense Texas Tech defense Texas Tech offense Kansas defense
Yards per play (Rk) 5.97 (41) 6.38 (118) 7.80 (2) 4.46 (21)
Yards per game (Rk) 378.0 (89) 548.3 (126) 678.3 (2) 358.0 (46)
Points per possession (Rk) 1.93 (94) 2.83 (117) 4.07 (3) 1.91 (58)
Category Kansas offense Texas Tech defense Texas Tech offense Kansas defense
S&P+ (Rk) 22.2 (111) 41.4 (125) 49.1 (2) 33.4 (87)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 92.8 (103) 79.3 (123) 114.5 (38) 83.3 (117)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 114.6 (43) 86.6 (101) 126.9 (21) 135.6 (9)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 95.8 (91) 86.4 (111) 120.1 (17) 110.9 (41)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 141.1 (18) 80.9 (111) 130.3 (27) 97.5 (77)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 73.2 (119) 102.8 (62) 128.1 (28) 94.1 (88)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 120.4 (30) 69.1 (128) 146.0 (7) 107.9 (53)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 121.3 (30) 88.5 (100) 102.9 (76) 118.0 (37)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 84.4 (109) 111.7 (38) 106.8 (63) 159.0 (2)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Kansas

  1. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 6 offense vs. No. 127 defense)
  2. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 1 offense vs. No. 118 defense)
  3. Redzone S&P+ (No. 6 offense vs. No. 101 defense)
  4. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 28 offense vs. No. 122 defense)
  5. Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 18 offense vs. No. 111 defense)

Texas Tech

  1. Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 24 offense vs. No. 124 defense)
  2. Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 14 offense vs. No. 100 defense)
  3. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 21 offense vs. No. 104 defense)
  4. Rushing S&P+ (No. 38 offense vs. No. 117 defense)
  5. Q1 S&P+ (No. 43 vs. No. 117 )
Five Factors
Category Kansas offense Texas Tech defense Texas Tech offense Kansas defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.66 (4) 1.25 (67) 1.40 (26) 1.39 (103)
EFFICIENCY 35.8% (115) 50.7% (128) 55.2% (3) 36.7% (31)
FIELD POSITION 28.6 (95) 28.7 (61) 29.9 (67) 35.3 (125)
FINISHING DRIVES 5.2 (47) 5.2 (96) 5.7 (19) 4.1 (35)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Kansas 0.16 (69)
Texas Tech 2.05 (29)
ACTUAL
Kansas -7 (127)
Texas Tech 0 (60)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Kansas offense Texas Tech offense
Adj. Pace -9.8 (114) 12.4 (6)
Plays per game 63.3 (118) 87.0 (6)
Possessions per game 14.3 (26) 15.0 (9)
Std. Downs Run Rate 40.7% (121) 48.4% (114)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 35.7% (50) 18.6% (122)
% of solo tackles 88.8% (5) 89.5% (4)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Kansas defense Texas Tech defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 63.0% (38) 63.6% (34)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 52.5% (4) 33.3% (66)
Overall Havoc Rate 22.4% (10) 13.3% (104)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 13.4% (18) 7.5% (102)
DB Havoc Rate 8.6% (21) 5.8% (74)
PD to INC 45.5% (3) 33.3% (55)

When Kansas has the ball…

Standard Downs
Kansas Offense Texas Tech Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 95.8 91 86.4 111 Kansas
Standard Downs Success Rate 40.7 109 52.3 116
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.39 11 1.22 105 Kansas big
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.31 115 3.26 107
SD Sack Rate 0% 1 0% 118 Kansas big
Passing Downs
Kansas Offense Texas Tech Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 141.1 18 80.9 111 Kansas big
Passing Downs Success Rate 26.2 109 46.2 128 Kansas
Passing Downs IsoPPP 2.46 4 1.75 4
PD Line Yards per Carry 2.89 93 2.53 31 Texas Tech big
PD Sack Rate 3.7% 28 0% 122 Kansas big

When Texas Tech has the ball…

Standard Downs
Texas Tech Offense Kansas Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 120.1 17 110.9 41 Texas Tech
Standard Downs Success Rate 55.7 10 38.9 24 Texas Tech
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.25 29 1.26 101 Texas Tech big
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.03 63 2.65 50 Kansas
SD Sack Rate 1.6% 25 5% 60 Texas Tech
Passing Downs
Texas Tech Offense Kansas Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 130.3 27 97.5 77 Texas Tech
Passing Downs Success Rate 53.5 2 32.8 85 Texas Tech big
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.85 50 1.25 73 Texas Tech
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.79 36 2.97 49 Texas Tech
PD Sack Rate 2.9% 21 3.4% 104 Texas Tech big
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Kansas Montell Cozart 6'2, 200 JR 48 71 484 5 3 67.6% 0 0.0% 6.8
Kansas Ryan Willis 6'4, 215 SO 17 27 232 2 1 63.0% 2 6.9% 7.6
Kansas Carter Stanley 6'2, 196 FR 7 10 82 1 0 70.0% 0 0.0% 8.2
Texas Tech Patrick Mahomes II 6'3, 230 JR 94 132 1493 14 2 71.2% 4 2.9% 10.8
Texas Tech Nic Shimonek 6'3, 220 JR 18 28 150 1 1 64.3% 2 6.7% 4.4
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Kansas Ke'aun Kinner RB 5'9, 191 SR 24 134 1 5.6 4.4 45.8%
Kansas Khalil Herbert RB 5'9, 200 FR 12 91 1 7.6 15.6 33.3%
Kansas Denzell Evans RB 5'11, 215 JR 12 26 0 2.2 1.7 16.7%
Kansas Montell Cozart QB 6'2, 200 JR 11 38 0 3.5 1.7 45.5%
Texas Tech Patrick Mahomes II QB 6'3, 230 JR 29 167 4 5.8 3.8 51.7%
Texas Tech Justin Stockton RB 5'10, 200 JR 26 78 1 3.0 2.1 34.6%
Texas Tech Demarcus Felton RB 5'7, 190 SO 22 156 3 7.1 3.2 68.2%
Texas Tech Quinton White, Jr. RB 5'7, 215 SR 4 8 0 2.0 0.0 0.0%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Kansas LaQuvionte Gonzalez WR 5'10, 176 JR 24 18 167 1 9.3 7.0 75.0%
Kansas Steven Sims Jr. WR 5'10, 176 SO 18 11 253 4 23.0 14.1 61.1%
Kansas Tyler Patrick WR 6'0, 177 SO 15 11 63 1 5.7 4.2 73.3%
Kansas Bobby Hartzog, Jr. WR 5'11, 195 JR 12 8 55 0 6.9 4.6 66.7%
Kansas Keegan Brewer WR 5'11, 177 FR 7 5 41 0 8.2 5.9 71.4%
Kansas Ke'aun Kinner RB 5'9, 191 SR 6 5 58 0 11.6 9.7 83.3%
Kansas Ben Johnson TE 6'5, 245 JR 5 3 21 1 7.0 4.2 60.0%
Texas Tech Devin Lauderdale WR 5'10, 176 SR 22 15 133 1 8.9 6.1 68.2%
Texas Tech Jonathan Giles WR 5'11, 185 SO 21 19 346 5 18.2 16.5 90.5%
Texas Tech Cameron Batson WR 5'9, 175 JR 20 14 197 3 14.1 9.9 70.0%
Texas Tech Dylan Cantrell WR 6'3, 210 JR 15 11 168 3 15.3 11.2 73.3%
Texas Tech Justin Stockton RB 5'10, 200 JR 12 10 191 1 19.1 15.9 83.3%
Texas Tech Derrick Willies WR 6'3, 215 JR 9 6 144 1 24.0 16.0 66.7%
Texas Tech Reginald Davis III WR 6'0, 185 SR 8 4 105 0 26.3 13.1 50.0%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Kansas Bazie Bates IV S 6'1, 197 SR 17.0 9.8% 1.0 0.0 1 2 0 0
Kansas Daniel Wise DT 6'3, 285 SO 15.0 8.6% 4.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Kansas Marcquis Roberts LB 6'1, 223 SR 14.0 8.1% 4.0 1.0 0 2 0 0
Kansas Joe Dineen Jr. LB 6'2, 225 JR 13.0 7.5% 3.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Kansas Fish Smithson S 5'11, 190 SR 12.0 6.9% 0.0 0.0 1 2 0 0
Kansas Marnez Ogletree CB 5'10, 185 SR 8.5 4.9% 1.0 0.0 0 3 0 0
Kansas Osaze Ogbebor LB 6'1, 220 SO 7.5 4.3% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Kansas Courtney Arnick LB 6'2, 215 SR 7.0 4.0% 1.0 1.0 0 1 0 0
Kansas Dorance Armstrong Jr. DE 6'4, 246 SO 6.0 3.5% 4.0 2.0 0 0 0 0
Kansas DeeIsaac Davis DT 6'3, 300 JR 6.0 3.5% 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Kansas Tyrone Miller Jr. S 6'0, 182 SO 6.0 3.5% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Kansas Derrick Neal CB 5'11, 180 JR 6.0 3.5% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Kansas Tevin Shaw S 5'11, 206 SR 5.5 3.2% 2.0 0.0 0 3 0 0
Texas Tech Jordyn Brooks LB 6'1, 235 FR 18.0 9.0% 2.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Texas Tech Malik Jenkins LB 6'1, 225 SR 16.0 8.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Texas Tech Jah'Shawn Johnson DB 5'10, 180 SO 15.5 7.8% 1.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Texas Tech Justis Nelson DB 6'2, 180 SR 13.0 6.5% 0.5 0.0 0 4 0 0
Texas Tech Keenon Ward DB 5'9, 200 SR 12.5 6.3% 0.0 0.0 1 0 0 0
Texas Tech Thierry Nguema DB 5'10, 175 SR 11.0 5.5% 0.0 0.0 1 0 0 0
Texas Tech Luke Stice LB 6'0, 230 SR 10.0 5.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Texas Tech D.J. Polite-Bray DB 6'0, 195 JR 8.5 4.3% 1.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
Texas Tech Kris Williams LB 6'1, 240 SR 8.5 4.3% 1.0 1.0 0 1 0 0
Texas Tech Kolin Hill LB 6'2, 250 SO 8.5 4.3% 1.0 1.0 0 2 0 0
Texas Tech D'Vonta Hinton LB 5'9, 225 SO 8.0 4.0% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Texas Tech Tevin Madison DB 5'10, 175 JR 8.0 4.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Texas Tech Ondre Pipkins DL 6'3, 325 SR 7.5 3.8% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Kansas Cole Moos 5'11, 185 JR 16 39.8 1 5 4 56.3%
Texas Tech Michael Barden 5'10, 175 SO 9 37.2 1 1 2 33.3%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Kansas Matthew Wyman 6'1, 220 SR 16 64.6 9 56.3% 0 0 0 0
Texas Tech Clayton Hatfield 5'10, 170 SO 32 63.6 13 40.6% 0 0 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Kansas Matthew Wyman 6'1, 220 SR 11-11 0-1 0.0%
Texas Tech Clayton Hatfield 5'10, 170 SO 24-25 3-4 75.0%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Kansas LaQuvionte Gonzalez 5'10, 176 JR 9 28.1 1 0 0 (0)
Kansas Emmanuel Moore 6'0, 190 SO 2 20.5 0 0 0 (0)
Texas Tech Reginald Davis III 6'0, 185 SR 2 22.5 0 0 0 (0)
Texas Tech Keke Coutee 5'11, 175 SO 1 15.0 0 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Kansas LaQuvionte Gonzalez 5'10, 176 JR 3 -0.7 0 4 2 (2)
Kansas Derrick Neal 5'11, 180 JR 1 0.0 0 0 1 (1)
Texas Tech Cameron Batson 5'9, 175 JR 7 12.1 0 2 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics