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Connecticut at Houston: Advanced stats tale of the tape

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Connecticut Huskies (2-2) vs. Houston Cougars (4-0)

September 29, 2016 ( 8:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Houston -29.5
S&P+ Projection: Houston (37.1-15.8)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Connecticut Houston
S&P+ (Rk) 88 17
Category Connecticut offense Houston defense Houston offense Connecticut defense
Yards per play (Rk) 5.04 (102) 3.87 (6) 5.54 (66) 5.88 (101)
Yards per game (Rk) 377.0 (92) 218.8 (3) 505.3 (21) 382.0 (60)
Points per possession (Rk) 1.93 (93) 0.79 (4) 3.38 (13) 2.05 (68)
Category Connecticut offense Houston defense Houston offense Connecticut defense
S&P+ (Rk) 23.7 (106) 15.8 (8) 30.3 (61) 28.9 (62)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 70.4 (127) 171.0 (3) 97.1 (90) 114.1 (39)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 91.7 (100) 116.0 (33) 108.8 (57) 78.2 (120)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 81.3 (123) 121.7 (19) 93.9 (97) 91.6 (102)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 79.3 (118) 121.7 (34) 113.2 (51) 103.0 (61)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 47.1 (127) 101.8 (65) 109.1 (64) 81.3 (111)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 87.8 (111) 146.9 (8) 101.4 (85) 81.4 (111)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 74.0 (125) 110.6 (48) 81.3 (115) 127.0 (26)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 115.0 (38) 155.7 (3) 101.8 (73) 114.6 (32)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Connecticut

  1. Adj. Line Yards (No. 23 defense vs. No. 117 offense)
  2. First Down S&P+ (No. 36 defense vs. No. 105 offense)
  3. Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 57 defense vs. No. 108 offense)
  4. Rushing S&P+ (No. 39 defense vs. No. 90 offense)
  5. Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 41 defense vs. No. 90 offense)

Houston

  1. Rushing S&P+ (No. 3 defense vs. No. 127 offense)
  2. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 3 defense vs. No. 126 offense)
  3. Adj. Line Yards (No. 3 defense vs. No. 123 offense)
  4. Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 5 defense vs. No. 124 offense)
  5. Overall S&P+ (No. 12 defense vs. No. 124 offense)
Five Factors
Category Connecticut offense Houston defense Houston offense Connecticut defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.11 (119) 1.27 (70) 1.32 (52) 1.27 (71)
EFFICIENCY 40.8% (82) 32.5% (18) 44.1% (53) 43.4% (92)
FIELD POSITION 27.6 (108) 24.9 (11) 34.6 (17) 24.9 (12)
FINISHING DRIVES 4.0 (109) 3.8 (27) 5.4 (34) 4.5 (55)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Connecticut -1.89 (105)
Houston 1.75 (34)
ACTUAL
Connecticut -4 (113)
Houston 2 (34)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Connecticut offense Houston offense
Adj. Pace 0.7 (62) 16.1 (1)
Plays per game 74.8 (66) 91.3 (3)
Possessions per game 11.0 (121) 13.3 (62)
Std. Downs Run Rate 64.9% (35) 60.2% (59)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 32.1% (73) 46.9% (14)
% of solo tackles 73.5% (71) 74.6% (66)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Connecticut defense Houston defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 54.2% (96) 45.8% (122)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 37.3% (38) 26.6% (103)
Overall Havoc Rate 12.4% (111) 25.0% (4)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 6.8% (110) 15.6% (8)
DB Havoc Rate 5.6% (81) 8.9% (16)
PD to INC 28.0% (93) 32.6% (69)

When Connecticut has the ball…

Standard Downs
Connecticut Offense Houston Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 81.3 123 121.7 19 Houston big
Standard Downs Success Rate 46.0 84 39.6 26 Houston big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 0.98 116 1.14 78 Houston
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.49 108 1.87 9 Houston big
SD Sack Rate 4% 61 13.5% 5 Houston big
Passing Downs
Connecticut Offense Houston Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 79.3 118 121.7 34 Houston big
Passing Downs Success Rate 27.2 104 21.9 19 Houston big
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.73 71 1.60 49 Houston
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.22 80 0.88 1 Houston big
PD Sack Rate 10.9% 101 8.5% 56 Houston

When Houston has the ball…

Standard Downs
Houston Offense Connecticut Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 93.9 97 91.6 102
Standard Downs Success Rate 48.2 60 47.0 76 Houston
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.11 71 1.14 79
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.46 109 2.50 34 Connecticut big
SD Sack Rate 1.5% 22 4% 77 Houston big
Passing Downs
Houston Offense Connecticut Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 113.2 51 103.0 61
Passing Downs Success Rate 35.8 32 36.1 105 Houston big
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.90 41 1.61 47
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.30 74 3.57 89 Houston
PD Sack Rate 9.3% 82 1.9% 114 Houston
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Connecticut Bryant Shirreffs 6'2, 220 JR 79 118 819 2 2 66.9% 9 7.1% 6.0
Houston Greg Ward Jr. 5'11, 190 SR 67 102 936 5 2 65.7% 6 5.6% 8.3
Houston Kyle Postma 6'3, 205 JR 18 30 141 0 1 60.0% 0 0.0% 4.7
Houston D'Eriq King 5'10, 170 FR 2 2 20 1 0 100.0% 0 0.0% 10.0
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Connecticut Bryant Shirreffs QB 6'2, 220 JR 65 245 1 3.8 4.3 26.2%
Connecticut Arkeel Newsome RB 5'7, 185 JR 52 211 2 4.1 4.7 34.6%
Connecticut Ron Johnson RB 5'11, 220 JR 41 136 4 3.3 2.9 29.3%
Connecticut Noel Thomas, Jr. WR 6'1, 202 SR 3 23 0 7.7 3.0 66.7%
Houston Duke Catalon RB 6'0, 210 SO 48 225 1 4.7 4.7 37.5%
Houston Greg Ward Jr. QB 5'11, 190 SR 45 154 3 3.4 3.6 33.3%
Houston Kevrin Justice RB 5'11, 190 FR 34 149 2 4.4 4.1 26.5%
Houston Mulbah Car RB 5'11, 194 FR 30 147 1 4.9 5.2 33.3%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Connecticut Noel Thomas, Jr. WR 6'1, 202 SR 52 40 388 1 9.7 7.5 76.9%
Connecticut Hergy Mayala WR 6'2, 200 SO 15 9 139 0 15.4 9.3 60.0%
Connecticut Tyler Davis F 6'4, 235 FR 13 9 89 1 9.9 6.9 69.2%
Connecticut Ron Johnson RB 5'11, 220 JR 11 8 47 0 5.9 4.3 72.7%
Connecticut Arkeel Newsome RB 5'7, 185 JR 8 4 47 0 11.8 5.9 50.0%
Connecticut Alec Bloom TE 6'6, 261 JR 6 5 63 0 12.6 10.5 83.3%
Connecticut Tommy Myers F 6'5, 260 JR 4 3 39 0 13.0 9.8 75.0%
Houston Linell Bonner WR 6'0, 202 JR 32 21 280 1 13.3 8.8 65.6%
Houston Steven Dunbar WR 6'3, 210 JR 26 16 229 1 14.3 8.8 61.5%
Houston Chance Allen WR 6'3, 215 SR 26 12 181 1 15.1 7.0 46.2%
Houston Duke Catalon RB 6'0, 210 SO 13 10 89 1 8.9 6.9 76.9%
Houston D'Eriq King QB 5'10, 170 FR 12 12 117 1 9.8 9.8 100.0%
Houston Isaiah Johnson WR 6'4, 205 SO 9 4 86 0 21.5 9.6 44.4%
Houston Tyler McCloskey TE 6'2, 245 SR 6 6 77 1 12.8 12.8 100.0%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Connecticut Obi Melifonwu S 6'3, 217 SR 30.5 16.0% 0.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
Connecticut Matthew Walsh LB 6'1, 240 SR 22.0 11.5% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Connecticut Junior Joseph LB 6'1, 245 JR 21.5 11.3% 0.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Connecticut Vontae Diggs LB 6'2, 225 JR 16.5 8.6% 2.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Connecticut Jamar Summers CB 6'0, 190 JR 16.0 8.4% 2.0 0.0 1 4 0 1
Connecticut Jhavon Williams CB 5'10, 187 SR 13.0 6.8% 0.0 0.0 0 0 1 0
Connecticut Luke Carrezola LB 6'3, 260 JR 12.5 6.5% 4.0 1.0 0 1 0 0
Connecticut Folorunso Fatukasi DL 6'4, 310 JR 11.5 6.0% 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Connecticut Anthony Watkins S 5'11, 200 SO 9.5 5.0% 0.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Connecticut E.J. Levenberry LB 6'3, 250 JR 8.5 4.5% 2.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Connecticut Mikal Myers DL 6'1, 325 SR 6.5 3.4% 0.5 0.0 0 0 1 0
Connecticut Cole Ormsby DL 6'3, 262 JR 4.5 2.4% 2.5 1.0 0 0 0 0
Connecticut Cameron Stapleton LB 6'4, 255 JR 3.0 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Houston Matthew Adams ILB 6'1, 230 JR 19.0 9.9% 4.0 1.0 0 0 2 0
Houston Steven Taylor OLB 6'1, 225 SR 18.0 9.4% 6.0 5.5 1 0 1 0
Houston Garrett Davis S 6'1, 200 SO 17.0 8.9% 1.5 0.0 0 0 0 0
Houston Tyus Bowser OLB 6'3, 240 SR 14.0 7.3% 5.0 3.5 0 2 1 0
Houston Jeremy Winchester CB 6'0, 190 SO 13.0 6.8% 0.0 0.0 0 3 0 0
Houston Ed Oliver DT 6'2, 290 FR 12.5 6.5% 4.5 2.0 0 1 0 0
Houston Howard Wilson CB 6'1, 185 SO 11.0 5.7% 1.0 0.0 3 3 0 1
Houston Brandon Wilson CB 5'11, 200 SR 10.0 5.2% 1.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Houston Khalil Williams S 6'0, 200 JR 8.5 4.4% 2.0 0.0 0 1 1 0
Houston D'Juan Hines ILB 6'1, 225 JR 8.5 4.4% 0.5 0.0 0 0 0 0
Houston Terrell Williams S 6'3, 210 JR 8.5 4.4% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Houston Aymiel Fleming DE 6'2, 284 FR 5.0 2.6% 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Houston Cameron Malveaux DE 6'6, 270 SR 4.5 2.3% 2.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Connecticut Justin Wain 6'3, 217 SR 20 42.4 3 7 10 85.0%
Houston Dane Roy 6'7, 230 FR 14 39.4 1 8 4 85.7%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Connecticut Bobby Puyol 5'10, 183 SR 18 64.7 11 61.1% 0 0 1 0
Houston Ty Cummings 6'0, 185 SR 30 65.9 14 46.7% 0 1 2 1
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Connecticut Bobby Puyol 5'10, 183 SR 10-10 5-5 100.0%
Houston Ty Cummings 6'0, 185 SR 20-22 6-8 75.0%
Houston Joel Scarbrough 5'10, 182 FR 1-1 0-0 #DIV/0!
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Connecticut Tyraiq Beals 6'0, 185 SO 7 16.7 0 0 1 (1)
Connecticut Arkeel Newsome 5'7, 185 JR 3 17.3 0 0 0 (0)
Houston Brandon Wilson 5'11, 200 SR 6 32.3 0 0 0 (0)
Houston D'Eriq King 5'10, 170 FR 2 65.0 1 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Connecticut Brian Lemelle 5'10, 175 SR 1 13.0 0 7 0 (0)
Houston D'Eriq King 5'10, 170 FR 4 6.0 0 10 0 (0)
Houston Collin Wilder 5'11, 175 FR 2 4.0 0 2 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics