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Connecticut Huskies (2-2) vs. Houston Cougars (4-0)
September 29, 2016 ( 8:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Houston -29.5
S&P+ Projection: Houston (37.1-15.8)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Connecticut | Houston | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 88 | 17 | ||
| Category | Connecticut offense | Houston defense | Houston offense | Connecticut defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.04 (102) | 3.87 (6) | 5.54 (66) | 5.88 (101) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 377.0 (92) | 218.8 (3) | 505.3 (21) | 382.0 (60) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 1.93 (93) | 0.79 (4) | 3.38 (13) | 2.05 (68) |
| Category | Connecticut offense | Houston defense | Houston offense | Connecticut defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 23.7 (106) | 15.8 (8) | 30.3 (61) | 28.9 (62) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 70.4 (127) | 171.0 (3) | 97.1 (90) | 114.1 (39) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 91.7 (100) | 116.0 (33) | 108.8 (57) | 78.2 (120) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 81.3 (123) | 121.7 (19) | 93.9 (97) | 91.6 (102) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 79.3 (118) | 121.7 (34) | 113.2 (51) | 103.0 (61) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 47.1 (127) | 101.8 (65) | 109.1 (64) | 81.3 (111) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 87.8 (111) | 146.9 (8) | 101.4 (85) | 81.4 (111) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 74.0 (125) | 110.6 (48) | 81.3 (115) | 127.0 (26) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 115.0 (38) | 155.7 (3) | 101.8 (73) | 114.6 (32) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Connecticut
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 23 defense vs. No. 117 offense)
- First Down S&P+ (No. 36 defense vs. No. 105 offense)
- Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 57 defense vs. No. 108 offense)
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 39 defense vs. No. 90 offense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 41 defense vs. No. 90 offense)
Houston
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 3 defense vs. No. 127 offense)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 3 defense vs. No. 126 offense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 3 defense vs. No. 123 offense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 5 defense vs. No. 124 offense)
- Overall S&P+ (No. 12 defense vs. No. 124 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Connecticut offense | Houston defense | Houston offense | Connecticut defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.11 (119) | 1.27 (70) | 1.32 (52) | 1.27 (71) |
| EFFICIENCY | 40.8% (82) | 32.5% (18) | 44.1% (53) | 43.4% (92) |
| FIELD POSITION | 27.6 (108) | 24.9 (11) | 34.6 (17) | 24.9 (12) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.0 (109) | 3.8 (27) | 5.4 (34) | 4.5 (55) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN |
EXPECTED: Connecticut -1.89 (105) Houston 1.75 (34) |
ACTUAL Connecticut -4 (113) Houston 2 (34) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Connecticut offense | Houston offense |
| Adj. Pace | 0.7 (62) | 16.1 (1) |
| Plays per game | 74.8 (66) | 91.3 (3) |
| Possessions per game | 11.0 (121) | 13.3 (62) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 64.9% (35) | 60.2% (59) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 32.1% (73) | 46.9% (14) |
| % of solo tackles | 73.5% (71) | 74.6% (66) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Connecticut defense | Houston defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 54.2% (96) | 45.8% (122) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 37.3% (38) | 26.6% (103) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 12.4% (111) | 25.0% (4) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 6.8% (110) | 15.6% (8) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 5.6% (81) | 8.9% (16) |
| PD to INC | 28.0% (93) | 32.6% (69) |
When Connecticut has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Connecticut Offense | Houston Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 81.3 | 123 | 121.7 | 19 | Houston big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 46.0 | 84 | 39.6 | 26 | Houston big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 0.98 | 116 | 1.14 | 78 | Houston |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.49 | 108 | 1.87 | 9 | Houston big |
| SD Sack Rate | 4% | 61 | 13.5% | 5 | Houston big |
Passing Downs
| Connecticut Offense | Houston Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 79.3 | 118 | 121.7 | 34 | Houston big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 27.2 | 104 | 21.9 | 19 | Houston big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.73 | 71 | 1.60 | 49 | Houston |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.22 | 80 | 0.88 | 1 | Houston big |
| PD Sack Rate | 10.9% | 101 | 8.5% | 56 | Houston |
When Houston has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Houston Offense | Connecticut Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 93.9 | 97 | 91.6 | 102 | |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 48.2 | 60 | 47.0 | 76 | Houston |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.11 | 71 | 1.14 | 79 | |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.46 | 109 | 2.50 | 34 | Connecticut big |
| SD Sack Rate | 1.5% | 22 | 4% | 77 | Houston big |
Passing Downs
| Houston Offense | Connecticut Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 113.2 | 51 | 103.0 | 61 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 35.8 | 32 | 36.1 | 105 | Houston big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.90 | 41 | 1.61 | 47 | |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.30 | 74 | 3.57 | 89 | Houston |
| PD Sack Rate | 9.3% | 82 | 1.9% | 114 | Houston |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Connecticut | Bryant Shirreffs | 6'2, 220 | JR | 79 | 118 | 819 | 2 | 2 | 66.9% | 9 | 7.1% | 6.0 |
| Houston | Greg Ward Jr. | 5'11, 190 | SR | 67 | 102 | 936 | 5 | 2 | 65.7% | 6 | 5.6% | 8.3 |
| Houston | Kyle Postma | 6'3, 205 | JR | 18 | 30 | 141 | 0 | 1 | 60.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 4.7 |
| Houston | D'Eriq King | 5'10, 170 | FR | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 100.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 10.0 |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
| Connecticut | Bryant Shirreffs | QB | 6'2, 220 | JR | 65 | 245 | 1 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 26.2% |
| Connecticut | Arkeel Newsome | RB | 5'7, 185 | JR | 52 | 211 | 2 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 34.6% |
| Connecticut | Ron Johnson | RB | 5'11, 220 | JR | 41 | 136 | 4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 29.3% |
| Connecticut | Noel Thomas, Jr. | WR | 6'1, 202 | SR | 3 | 23 | 0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 66.7% |
| Houston | Duke Catalon | RB | 6'0, 210 | SO | 48 | 225 | 1 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 37.5% |
| Houston | Greg Ward Jr. | QB | 5'11, 190 | SR | 45 | 154 | 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 33.3% |
| Houston | Kevrin Justice | RB | 5'11, 190 | FR | 34 | 149 | 2 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 26.5% |
| Houston | Mulbah Car | RB | 5'11, 194 | FR | 30 | 147 | 1 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 33.3% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch |
Yds/ Target |
Catch Rate |
| Connecticut | Noel Thomas, Jr. | WR | 6'1, 202 | SR | 52 | 40 | 388 | 1 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 76.9% |
| Connecticut | Hergy Mayala | WR | 6'2, 200 | SO | 15 | 9 | 139 | 0 | 15.4 | 9.3 | 60.0% |
| Connecticut | Tyler Davis | F | 6'4, 235 | FR | 13 | 9 | 89 | 1 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 69.2% |
| Connecticut | Ron Johnson | RB | 5'11, 220 | JR | 11 | 8 | 47 | 0 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 72.7% |
| Connecticut | Arkeel Newsome | RB | 5'7, 185 | JR | 8 | 4 | 47 | 0 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 50.0% |
| Connecticut | Alec Bloom | TE | 6'6, 261 | JR | 6 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 12.6 | 10.5 | 83.3% |
| Connecticut | Tommy Myers | F | 6'5, 260 | JR | 4 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 13.0 | 9.8 | 75.0% |
| Houston | Linell Bonner | WR | 6'0, 202 | JR | 32 | 21 | 280 | 1 | 13.3 | 8.8 | 65.6% |
| Houston | Steven Dunbar | WR | 6'3, 210 | JR | 26 | 16 | 229 | 1 | 14.3 | 8.8 | 61.5% |
| Houston | Chance Allen | WR | 6'3, 215 | SR | 26 | 12 | 181 | 1 | 15.1 | 7.0 | 46.2% |
| Houston | Duke Catalon | RB | 6'0, 210 | SO | 13 | 10 | 89 | 1 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 76.9% |
| Houston | D'Eriq King | QB | 5'10, 170 | FR | 12 | 12 | 117 | 1 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 100.0% |
| Houston | Isaiah Johnson | WR | 6'4, 205 | SO | 9 | 4 | 86 | 0 | 21.5 | 9.6 | 44.4% |
| Houston | Tyler McCloskey | TE | 6'2, 245 | SR | 6 | 6 | 77 | 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 100.0% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Connecticut | Obi Melifonwu | S | 6'3, 217 | SR | 30.5 | 16.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Connecticut | Matthew Walsh | LB | 6'1, 240 | SR | 22.0 | 11.5% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Connecticut | Junior Joseph | LB | 6'1, 245 | JR | 21.5 | 11.3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Connecticut | Vontae Diggs | LB | 6'2, 225 | JR | 16.5 | 8.6% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Connecticut | Jamar Summers | CB | 6'0, 190 | JR | 16.0 | 8.4% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Connecticut | Jhavon Williams | CB | 5'10, 187 | SR | 13.0 | 6.8% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Connecticut | Luke Carrezola | LB | 6'3, 260 | JR | 12.5 | 6.5% | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Connecticut | Folorunso Fatukasi | DL | 6'4, 310 | JR | 11.5 | 6.0% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Connecticut | Anthony Watkins | S | 5'11, 200 | SO | 9.5 | 5.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Connecticut | E.J. Levenberry | LB | 6'3, 250 | JR | 8.5 | 4.5% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Connecticut | Mikal Myers | DL | 6'1, 325 | SR | 6.5 | 3.4% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Connecticut | Cole Ormsby | DL | 6'3, 262 | JR | 4.5 | 2.4% | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Connecticut | Cameron Stapleton | LB | 6'4, 255 | JR | 3.0 | 1.6% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Houston | Matthew Adams | ILB | 6'1, 230 | JR | 19.0 | 9.9% | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Houston | Steven Taylor | OLB | 6'1, 225 | SR | 18.0 | 9.4% | 6.0 | 5.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Houston | Garrett Davis | S | 6'1, 200 | SO | 17.0 | 8.9% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Houston | Tyus Bowser | OLB | 6'3, 240 | SR | 14.0 | 7.3% | 5.0 | 3.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Houston | Jeremy Winchester | CB | 6'0, 190 | SO | 13.0 | 6.8% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Houston | Ed Oliver | DT | 6'2, 290 | FR | 12.5 | 6.5% | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Houston | Howard Wilson | CB | 6'1, 185 | SO | 11.0 | 5.7% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Houston | Brandon Wilson | CB | 5'11, 200 | SR | 10.0 | 5.2% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Houston | Khalil Williams | S | 6'0, 200 | JR | 8.5 | 4.4% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Houston | D'Juan Hines | ILB | 6'1, 225 | JR | 8.5 | 4.4% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Houston | Terrell Williams | S | 6'3, 210 | JR | 8.5 | 4.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Houston | Aymiel Fleming | DE | 6'2, 284 | FR | 5.0 | 2.6% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Houston | Cameron Malveaux | DE | 6'6, 270 | SR | 4.5 | 2.3% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Connecticut | Justin Wain | 6'3, 217 | SR | 20 | 42.4 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 85.0% |
| Houston | Dane Roy | 6'7, 230 | FR | 14 | 39.4 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 85.7% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches |
Onside Att |
Onside Success |
| Connecticut | Bobby Puyol | 5'10, 183 | SR | 18 | 64.7 | 11 | 61.1% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Houston | Ty Cummings | 6'0, 185 | SR | 30 | 65.9 | 14 | 46.7% | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Connecticut | Bobby Puyol | 5'10, 183 | SR | 10-10 | 5-5 | 100.0% |
| Houston | Ty Cummings | 6'0, 185 | SR | 20-22 | 6-8 | 75.0% |
| Houston | Joel Scarbrough | 5'10, 182 | FR | 1-1 | 0-0 | #DIV/0! |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Connecticut | Tyraiq Beals | 6'0, 185 | SO | 7 | 16.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 (1) |
| Connecticut | Arkeel Newsome | 5'7, 185 | JR | 3 | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Houston | Brandon Wilson | 5'11, 200 | SR | 6 | 32.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Houston | D'Eriq King | 5'10, 170 | FR | 2 | 65.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Connecticut | Brian Lemelle | 5'10, 175 | SR | 1 | 13.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 (0) |
| Houston | D'Eriq King | 5'10, 170 | FR | 4 | 6.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 (0) |
| Houston | Collin Wilder | 5'11, 175 | FR | 2 | 4.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics